Water Conflict: Global Issues and Cooperative Opportunities Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD 2010 Summer Teacher Institute University of Chicago 29 June 2010.

Water Conflict: Global Issues and

Cooperative Opportunities

Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD2010 Summer Teacher Institute

University of Chicago29 June 2010

Structure of PresentationCONF 695 Water and Conflict

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Environmental Conflict

Water Conflict

Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model

Cases

Conclusion

CONF 695: Water and ConflictIntegrate conflict theory, water concepts, and

case literature

Case study approach to highlight social and environmental challenges and perspectives at different levels

Critical thinking and internal debate

Guest speakers from the field

Student presentations – on cases, on research, on policy proposals

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Principles

Conflict studies = analysis and resolution

Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re, development studies, cultural studies

Promotes critical thinking about social relationships, needs, aspirations and power between individuals and groups

Conflict is not necessarily bad (innovation)

Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict

Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Integrative Practice

PEACE-BUILDING

PREVENTIVEACTION

PEACEMAKING

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model

S = SourcesP = PartiesI = Issues and interestsT = TacticsC = ChangesE = EnlargementR = RolesO = OutcomesW = Winner

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model

PILLAR 2Conflict Conditions

Individual levelSocietal levelInternational levelGlobal/ecological level

PILLAR 1Conflict Sources

Parties (violent)IssuesObjectivesMeansConflict-handling

orientationsConflict environment

PILLAR 3Conflict Resolution

PreventionManagementSettlementResolutionTransformation

Environmental ConflictWhat is it?

“Environmental conflict” boils down to conflict (or “disputes”) over environmental resources.

Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes?

Resolution = How can we address them?

Environmental ConflictWhat are the “resources”?

Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan) Land (property rights)

Conflict over renewable resources Forests and timber Air Water

Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics?

Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics?

The environment (water resources included) is neither a necessary nor

sufficient cause of violent conflict

Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics?

RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY = POTENTIAL CONFLICT

Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999)

Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002)

Differential power and differential impacts of environmental degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001)

BUT if we think critically and creatively human ingenuity can overcome…

Water Conflict

History demonstrates peace and cooperation in

managing shared water resources.

But as the environment and institutions change this pattern

could change too.

Water ConflictPopular coverage of and rhetoric around

international “water wars”

Indirect role in intrastate, rather than interstate, violent conflict

Internal fragility associated with inequity of water scarcity problems

Problems with quality and quantity

Water Conflict Environmental change (including

global warming) means more water in some areas, less water in others, and pollution worldwide

Environmental change can cause social stress and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust to those changes in a productive way

Water Conflict

•Drought

•Flood & inundation

•Landslide

•Desertification

•Contamination

•Epidemic & disease

•Dispute, even conflict

•Healthy people

•Healthy ecosystems

•Food production

•Energy production

•Navigation

•Cultural Value

•Cooperation

A source of A source of destruction, poverty destruction, poverty & dispute & dispute

A source of A source of production, growth & production, growth & cooperationcooperation

Conflict Analysis and ResolutionDennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model

PILLAR 2Conflict Conditions

Individual levelSocietal levelInternational levelGlobal/ecological level

PILLAR 1Conflict Sources

Parties (violent)IssuesObjectivesMeansConflict-handling

orientationsConflict environment

PILLAR 3Conflict Resolution

PreventionManagementSettlementResolutionTransformation

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties

There are many different users of water:

Water for people (supply and sanitation)

Water for environment (ecosystems)

Water for food (irrigation)

Water for energy (hydropower)

Water for other purposes (e.g., culture or religion)

They have different, sometimes competing needs.

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties

upstream vs. downstream

urban vs. rural

rich vs. poor

haves vs. have-nots

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties

Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes) cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines

Interstate

Intrastate

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict

Ownership Who has the right to it?

Consumption How should it be used?

Distribution Who has access and who does not?

Management How should it be governed?

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

Category Type

Renewable natural resource changes

Quality

Quantity

Temporal

Variability

Other physical changes

Demographic

Infrastructure

Relational changes Behavioral

Parties (individuals and groups)

Institutions

Power and influence

Conflict tactics

Eco-economic changes

Value of and relationship to the resources

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

Direct/indirect control over resources = power

Control over supply (domestic and industry)

Control over food production (domestic and export)

Control over environment (drought and flood)

Control over health issues (diseases)

Control over energy production (hydropower)

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

Water Scarcity 2025

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Societal/International

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD

Population (billions)

MegacitiesCitiesTownsOther ruralFragile lands

1950 1970 2000 2030 2050

Projected Population Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD

Rapid urban growth in secondary cities & towns

Still many in fragile rural areas

Mega cities

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: International

More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: International

Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions

Physical Effects of Climate Change

Increased variability, availability and access to resources Changes in precipitation Glacial melt Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination) Increased desertification Changes to crop seasons Changes in biodiversity

Rising sea levels Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations

Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)

Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions

Social Impacts of Climate Change

Loss of livelihoodsEconomic shocks and instabilityFood shortages and food insecurityHuman health impacts (e.g. disease)Food insecurityTrade relationsMigrationPolitical instability and state fragilitySpillover effects impacting neighboring areas

Inequitable impacts and social tensions

Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution

Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy)

Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping)

Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking)

Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking)

Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)

Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution

Building capacity to deal with conflict:

Organizations(e.g., policy and official administrative structures)

and

Institutions(e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors,

knowledge)

Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution

Environmental Peacebuilding

Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to promote social, economic, and political relationships through joint environmental management and benefit sharing

Opportunities both for prevention and transformation are everywhere…

CasesNile River Basin

CasesThe Sahel Region

CasesYemen

CasesIsrael and the Palestinian Territories

CasesThe Dead Sea

CasesIndus River Basin

THANK YOU.