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Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin ANNEX 5 - Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for – Agriculture August 2015

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© 2015 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org

Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin

ANNEX 5 - Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for – Agriculture

August 2015 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was made possible by the financial contribution of the World Bank’s Water Partnership Program (WPP) - a multi-donor trust fund that promotes water security for inclusive green growth (wa-ter.worldbank.org/water/wpp) and the Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD).

DISCLAIMER This work is a product of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colours, denominations, and other infor-mation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected].

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Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for Agriculture

Table of Contents Page No

1 Background and Introduction ..................................................................................... 1

2 Slovenia ......................................................................................................................... 2

2.1 Overview of Slovenia ...................................................................................................... 2

2.2 Agricultural in the economy ............................................................................................ 2

2.3 Main production in the Sava Basin ................................................................................. 3

2.4 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava Basin ....................................................... 3

2.5 Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................................ 5

2.6 Adaptation options .......................................................................................................... 6

3 Croatia ........................................................................................................................... 7

3.1 Overview of Croatia ........................................................................................................ 7

3.2 Data Availability .............................................................................................................. 7

3.3 Agriculture in the Economy ............................................................................................. 7

3.4 Agriculture Production .................................................................................................... 8

3.5 Total Production .............................................................................................................. 8

3.6 Main production in the Sava Basin ............................................................................... 10

3.7 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava Basin. .................................................... 10

3.8 Vulnerability Assessment .............................................................................................. 13

3.9 Adaptation ..................................................................................................................... 13

4 Bosnia and Herzegovina ............................................................................................ 14

4.1 Overview of Bosnia and Herzegovina ........................................................................... 14

4.2 Agriculture in the Economy ........................................................................................... 15

4.3 Total Production ............................................................................................................ 16

4.4 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava River Basin ............................................ 19


4.6 Adaptation ..................................................................................................................... 22

5 Serbia ........................................................................................................................... 23

5.1 Overview of the Republic of Serbia .............................................................................. 23

5.2 Data Availability ............................................................................................................ 23

5.3 Agriculture in the Economy ........................................................................................... 23

5.4 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava Basin ..................................................... 24

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5.6 Adaptation ..................................................................................................................... 27

6 Irrigation as an Adaptation Mechanism .................................................................... 30

List of Tables Page No.

Table 1: General Statistics For Agricultural Production In Slovenia ............................................................. 3 Table 2: Agriculture Indicators Of The Contribution To Overall Gdp In Croatia2 .......................................... 7 Table 3: Total Production In Croatia ............................................................................................................. 9 Table 4: Production In Tons And Per Acre For Crops And Total Production Of Livestock In Croatia .......... 9 Table 5: Agricultural Indicators For Bih Including The Available Data From The Fbih And Rs .................. 15 Table 6: Land Use And Agricultural Figures For The Rs In Bih (2005-2007) ............................................. 17 Table 7: Agricultural Yields From 2005 - 2009 For Fbih ............................................................................. 19 Table 8: Agricultural Statistics For Serbia ................................................................................................... 24 Table 9: Share Of Certain Agricultural Products In The Value Of Total Agricultural Production ................ 24 Table 10: Strategic Areas And Measures Of Adaptation To Climate Change In The Water Resource

Sector .................................................................................................................................................. 28 Table 11: Strategic Areas And Measures Of Adaptation To Climate Change In The Forestry Sector ....... 29 Table 12: Strategic Areas And Measures Of Adaptation To Climate Change In The Agricultural

Sector .................................................................................................................................................. 29

List of Figures

Page No. Figure 1: Production Types of Agricultural Holdings in Slovenia % .............................................................. 2 Figure 2: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Ljubljana ....................... 4 Figure 3: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Ljubljana ................................................................. 5 Figure 4: Land Distribution of Agricultural Area in Croatia % ....................................................................... 8 Figure 5: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Zagreb ........................ 12 Figure 6: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Zagreb .................................................................. 12 Figure 7: Distribution of Cultivable Area in RS, (this is 83% of total 995,000 Ha Agricultural area in

RS from 2007) ..................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 8: Distribution of Arable Land in RS (Total Arable Land was 595,709 Ha in 2007) ........................ 17 Figure 9: Distribution of Cultivable Area in the FBiH .................................................................................. 18 Figure 10: Distribution of Sown Area of Arable Land in the FBiH ............................................................... 18 Figure 11: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Banja Luka ............... 20 Figure 12: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Banja Luka .......................................................... 21 Figure 13: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Sremska Mitrovice .... 25 Figure 14: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Sremska Mitrovice .............................................. 27

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ACRONYMS AR4 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina EH50M EC Hamburg Couple GCM IPCC AR4 Experiments model ET Evapotranspiration EU European Union FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation FBiH Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina GCM General Circulation Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Green House Gases HadCM3 Hadley Center Climate Model 3 IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISRBC International Sava River Basin Commission NPIEU National Program for Integration into the European Union (Croatia) P Precipitation RegCM Regional Climate Model RS Republic Srpska SAA Stabilization and Association Agreement (Croatia) SRB Sava River Basin TFESSD Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WATCAP Water and Climate Adaptation Plan WPP Water Partnership Program

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GUIDANCE NOTE ON ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN – AGRICULTURE

1 Background and Introduction

This report provides guidance note for decision making on the adaptation needs related to agriculture and irrigation in the Sava River Basin (SRB). This guidance note is one of the components of the Wa-ter and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) being prepared by the Consultant for the International Sava River Basin Commission (ISRBC) under World Bank funding. Although at different stages of development, all SRB countries face several challenges in transform-ing and modernizing their agricultural food production sectors to become competitive in regional and European markets. The agrifood sectors generally lag behind the rest of the economy in growth; they are undercapitalized, fragmented, and dominated by small producers. But agriculture and rural de-velopment as sources of growth, employment and food security now need to be taken seriously (Lampietti et al., 2009)1. The current irrigation coverage is very low and irrigation water use is re-sponsible for only 0.6% of the total water withdrawals in the SRB (annually Bosnia and Herzegovina – 6.2 million m3, Croatia – 3.1 million m3, Serbia – 14.4 million m3, and Slovenia – 4.4 million m3; ISRBC, 2009)2. At the same time, however, rapid and efficient drainage of excess water from agricul-tural lowlands is essential for agricultural water management in Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and Her-zegovina. For example, in Serbia 2 million ha are equipped with drainage systems and total capacity of drainage pumps is more than 550 m3/s (Marjanovic, 2006)3. In Croatia similar drainage systems are fully or partially built on almost 350,000 ha. These drainage systems are generally in poor condi-tion because of the inadequate funds for maintenance of the related infrastructure. This Chapter gives a brief overview of the condition and status of the agricultural production in each of the four riparian countries to the Sava River followed by a vulnerability analysis of the impact of changing climate on the crop water status and crop yield. The included information is basic facts of each country as well as agricultural production and how that production relates to the economy. The tables and figures included here are for general overall statistics. The analysis uses the crop water balance as a tool to determine the water stress and subsequent crop yield changes, and does not take into account changing crop yields because of the impact of temperature, sunshine and air carbon dioxide content on crop photosynthesis. The analysis is done for four proxy locations, one for each of the Sava riparian countries located in the SRB. These loca-tions are Ljubljana for Slovenia, Zagreb for Croatia, Banja Luka for Bosnia and Sremska Mitrovice for Serbia. For the analysis, precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) were used from 5 climate models (CLM, HadRM3Q0, RACMO, REMO and RegCM3). Crop water balance and yield response for 4 four representative crops at a representative soil with for each of the four locations was calculat-ed using the CROPWAT-model from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This model provides the actual ET (ETa) and the potential ET (ET) which the crop would use in optimal water availability, both expressed in mm of water layer. The ratio of ETa/ETp therefore is a good indicator for the water stress of a crop, and through CROPWAT, this value is used to determine reductions in crop yield, through the use of the standard crop-yield response formulas used by FAO in CROPWAT. The final section lists potential adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop production, and provides a brief analysis of the potential of irrigation as an adaptation strategy.

1 Lampietti, J.A., D.G. Lugg, P. Van der Celen and A. Branczik, (2009). The Changing Face of Rural Space: Agriculture and Rural Develop-ment in the Western Balkans. World Bank. 2 ISRBC, 2009. Characterization Report on the SRB (draft), Zagreb. 3 Marjanovic, N., 2006. Water Management in Serbia. Conference of the Water Directors of the Euro-Medierranean and South-East Europe-an Countries, Athens, 6-7 November, 2006.

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2 Slovenia

2.1 Overview of Slovenia Slovenia has been an independent country since 1991 and a member of the European Union (EU) since 2004. Slovenia has a history of agriculture, but the natural characteristics of the country, mainly altitude, slope, and karst nature of some regions, make farming difficult. According to a 2005 report from the Slovenian government holdings size and the amount of utilized area for agriculture has not changed in 10 years.

2.2 Agricultural in the economy As far as production is concerned, the types of agriculture, in percentages, are as follows: grazing livestock (28.6%), animal breeding (21.8%), mixed plant production (19.2%), mixed plant production and animal breeding (15.5%), permanent plantations (9.1%), arable farming (4.2%), horticulture (0.8%) and pigs and poultry (0.8%)4 (see Figure 1). Approximately 60% of the agricultural land in Slovenia is used as pastures and meadows and another 20% is used to produce feed for animal pro-duction. This shows the importance of animal production and breeding in Slovenia, where the breed-ing of ruminants is the highest animal of production, but in 2005 the number of units of production had a falling trend. Slovenia’s contribution to the total EU agricultural sector is very small, but considering the size of the country and the limitations on agriculture, it is a success story.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food Republic of Slovenia, 2007

Figure 1: Production Types of Agricultural Holdings in Slovenia %

Approximately 60% of the land area in Slovenia is covered by forests, of which only 28% are federally owned and the other 72% are dispersed in very small private holdings. This makes the production of forestry materials very small in Slovenia. The covering of forest includes spruce (32%), beech (31%),

4 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food Republic of Slovenia, 2007. Slovenia Agriculture, Forestry and Food Processing Industry, Basic Characteristics and Numbers. Ljubljana. http://www.mkgp.gov.si/fileadmin/mkgp.gov.si/pageuploads/saSSo/Publikacije/Acrobat_Document.pdf

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fir (8%), oaks (7%), pine trees (6%), precious deciduous trees (4%), and other coniferous and decidu-ous trees making up the last 12%. Slovenia has a trend of developing agricultural lands into urban land use. This has decreased the overall land of agricultural use as well as the loss of agricultural lands due to the land being in unsuit-able terrain for agriculture production. Forested areas in Slovenia have increased in recent years and it is felt that production from timber resources is less than desired in Slovenia. Better economic production from timber resources has been requested (Fifth National Communication, 2010). Overall the production of agriculture in Slovenia has increased in recent years and the production of main crops and animals has increased accordingly. Table 1shows the increases in output (Bureau of Statistics, 2010).

Table 1: General Statistics for Agricultural Production in Slovenia

Description of Item Current prices (mio EUR)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Agricultural output 937 1091 1065 1066 1127 1106 Crop production 421 571 531 517 599 530 Animal output 500 504 516 530 509 556

Description of Item Production Statistics

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Agricultural (ha) 509,709 490,518 508,759 490,342 498,466 492,424 Wheat Production (1,000 t) 122.9 146.8 141.3 134.4 133.3 160.3 Grain Production (1,000 t) 224.2 357.6 351.2 276.1 308.3 319.9 Total (1,000 t) 254.3 242.5 240.4 232.5 242.3 241.0 Source: Bureau of Statistics, Slovenia 2010

2.3 Main production in the Sava Basin In the Sava basin, Slovenia is in the upper reaches, with mostly forested areas on relatively steep slopes. Some agriculture is conducted on alluvial fans and on the river banks, but in general is quite limited. Key crops are winter wheat, maize, potato and grapes. Yields amounts in hectograms per hectare (Hg/Ha) for the key crops have been obtained from FAO website: http://faostat.fao.org/ and are from 2012 and summarised as follows:

Crop Type Yield (Hg/Ha)

Yield (Tonnes/Ha)

winter wheat 54,376 5.44 maize 70,816 7.08 potato 234,061 23.41 grapes 56,464 5.65

2.4 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava Basin According to the Slovenian Government (Fifth National Communication, 2010; Slovenian Bureau of Statistics, 2010) and the analysis conducted by the World Bank (2010), the climate in Slovenia is sub-Mediterranean at the coast, Alpine in the mountainous regions, and continental in the flatter areas. Temperature varies across the country with hotter summer temperatures near the coastal areas and warm but less hot temperatures in the mountains. Cold temperatures dominate the mountain winters with mild winters in the coastal areas. The biggest temperature fluctuations are found in the eastern flatter areas of the country (Fifth National Communication, 2010). Analysis of the last forty years shows that an increase in temperature is notices in the last 20 as compared to the first twenty years

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throughout the country and the last twenty show a rising trend in temperature that is varied throughout the year (World Bank, 2010; Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Precipitation in Slovenia is highly variability in precipitation with amounts as high as 3,000 mm/annum in the Julian Alps and as low as 900 mm/annum in areas of continental climate( Fifth National Com-munication, 2010). The precipitation is variable throughout the year as well with considerable differ-ences throughout the county. The coastal areas show precipitation periods in both the spring and au-tumn, in the mountainous areas precipitation increases in the autumn and some in the late Spring and in the eastern plains summer months tend to be wetter with drier winters. These tendencies are de-pendent very much on prevailing climate types. The climate in the last decade has shown both an increased amount of drought and precipitation events that have damaged crops and agriculture pro-duction. The groundwater in certain portions of the country has seen a balance that is beneficial to crop production, but this is not explained. Ljubljana, as a proxy for agricultural areas in the Slovenian part of Sava basin, has overall high to very high rainfall, with an average of 1405 mm per year for the period 1961-19905. Precipitation is lowest in the winter months and higher in the summer months. The suite of models shows that pre-cipitation slightly increases to 1415 mm per year for the period 2011-2040 and 1425 mm per year for the period 2041-2070, with an increase in winter precipitation and a slight decrease in summer precip-itation.

Figure 2: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Ljubljana

As shown in Figure 2, precipitation greatly exceeds potential evapotranspiration for most of the year, except for July. Model projections indicate that overall precipitation decreases slightly for the period

5 It should be noted that agricultural areas in Novo mesto (Slovenia), located between Ljubljana and Zagreb, have climatic conditions that are more similar to the climatic conditions in Zagreb, with higher summer temperatures and significantly lower rainfall.

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April-August, and increases slightly in winter from September to March. There is more uncertainty for future precipitation as opposed to evapotranspiration, which is fairly constant throughout the year (around ±20 mm/month, except in early summer to autumn when it can be ±40 mm/year. There is more chance of a reduction in the precipitation in the summer to autumn months in the distant future, although there is substantial uncertainty for this parameter. The uncertainty for evapotranspiration is much less being smaller than ±5 mm/month in summer and much smaller in autumn, winter to spring. The increase in the summer evapotranspiration in the distant future will be twice as much as in the near future. When modelling the impact of changes in the crop water balance to the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, the impacts are minimal. The surplus rainfall in winter gets stored in the root zone, so most deep rooting crops have a significant water storage buffer. Therefore, the expected impact of climate change on the water balance of crops is minimal, as shown in Figure 3 below. There is a small uncertainty (for potato) or almost zero uncertainty (for the other three crops) about the re-sults stemming from the climate modelling, as shown by error bars in Figure 3 that indicate the ranges of the modelling results based on five different climate model outputs.

Figure 3: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Ljubljana (error bars indicate the uncertainty ranges due to climate modelling)

Since crop water stress is not a very significant consideration for crop production, but there is a sur-plus of water which is projected to increase under different climate models in winter, an important consideration and investment would be adequate drainage of lands in order to avoid water logging. As long as adequate drainage is provide, winter wheat, maize and grape production are not affected by water stress as a result of changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns. In the case of wheat this is because of low winter water requirements, in case of grape and maize because of deep root zones providing ample water storage in the crop root zone. Therefore, Ljubljana is the best loca-tion for crop security having the least uncertainty with only water uptake and yield for potatoes affect-ed. Only slight yield decrease of 1.5% and 3.7% respectively on average for 11-40 and 41-70 are ob-served for potatoes, mainly because of a shallow root zone, and sub-optimal soil water levels towards the end of the potato growing season in August-September.

2.5 Vulnerability Assessment According to the Slovenian government’s Fifth National Communication with the UNFCCC, the impact of climate change on the country is going to be enough that strategies to adjust current actions and policies will need to be rethought. The communication states that temperature rise is expected

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throughout the years with bigger rises in summer and winter and lower rises in spring and autumn. Precipitation amounts are estimated to stay the same annually, but the distribution is expected to show less precipitation in hotter months and more precipitation in cooler months. Agriculture has been determined to be in a sector that currently indicates a strong vulnerability to the variability of the current climate. Forestry is considered to be a sector in which adaptation time is the longest and the resulting development changes are connected with the highest costs. Slovenia will also focus on sec-tors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (Fifth National Commu-nication, 2010). Slovenia’s current views of the impact of climate change have resulted in priority measures that em-phasize on future adaptation which mainly focuses on the following areas (Fifth National Communica-tion, 2010) which focus on what is said to be the most endangered sectors of agriculture and forestry and which sectors the only national adaptation strategy was adopted: sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention

of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmen-tal function as well as provision of water for other needs;

sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their en-vironmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks;

spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development;

sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosys-tems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures;

Informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities.

2.6 Adaptation options Slovenia has determined that the biggest impact of climate change is increased temperatures throughout the year, with bigger increases in warmer months and less increase in cooler months. Precipitation will increase in winter months and decrease in summer months, but on annual average stay the same. No national adaptation strategy has been developed in Slovenia, mitigation strategies have been the focus of the last years. For Slovenia to fully take care of the negative impacts of cli-mate change and take advantage of the positive impacts of climate change, major analysis and strat-egies have to be produced (Fifth National Communication, 2010). A sector strategy for adaptation in agriculture and forestry has been produced by Slovenia. The Environmental Agency for the Republic of Slovenia (ARSO) has determined, with the help of several programs by the EU and United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) that irrigation in agriculture is a key step in adapting to drought conditions that are thought to increase as a result of climate change. This holds true for shallow rooting crops, but the crop water analysis done under this study also highlights that water stress is not likely to lead to significant yield reduction for most field crops, and instead it might be worthwhile to consider prioritizing investments in drainage to remove excess water. Also suggested by ARSO, is an increased knowledge of flood impacts of in-creased flood intensity that may be a result of climate change as well as better information gathering, sharing, and storing centres for Slovenia. This will begin with the continuation of ARSO’s measure-ment of air quality standards, atmospheric measurements, and the measurements of water resources throughout the country by the government.

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3 Croatia

3.1 Overview of Croatia Croatia has a population of 4.4 million and a land area of 56,594 km2 (Croatian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Of the 4.4 million people, it is estimated that approximately 50% live within the Sava River Ba-sin (ISRBC, 2008). In a 2006 report funded by the European Union, it was estimated that 21% of the mainland area was utilized for agriculture. Croatia has a unique geography that connects mainland Europe to the Mediterranean in the Western Balkans. This geography allows for Croatia to be a popular tourist destination and consists of the fol-lowing geographic types:

The Adriatic coast which is separated from the plains of Croatia by a mountainous region. The

coast contains over 1,000 islands and the climate allows for a bustling tourism industry and the production of crops typical to Mediterranean climate.

The mountainous region dividing the country provides climate that produces winter snows and steep river courses that provide water resources throughout the region.

The Pannonian plain lies in the northern and eastern regions of Croatia and arable-farming and livestock production are common in this area. The Sava River flows through the southern portion of the Pannonian Plain in Croatia.

Croatia recently joined the EU and has been adopting policy measures, including those for agricul-ture, since 2002 when Croatia launched its first National Program for Integration into the European Union (NPIEU). The NPIEU aims to combine Croatia’s goals to implement a Stabilization and Asso-ciation Agreement (SAA) with the EU to help integration in the future.

3.2 Data Availability Data within Croatia and in the region has limited reliability except in recent years when data collection and record keeping has been at a higher level than previously. Data to date within this report is ob-tained from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and literature cited in this document.

3.3 Agriculture in the Economy A Croatia has one of the strongest economies in the Western Balkans region including raising GDP in 2006, 2007, and 2008. A drop between 2008 and 2009 due to the global economic situation showed a drop in GDP to a level that is still above 2007 levels (Bureau of Statistics, 2010). As can be seen in Table 2 agriculture plays a significant role to the Croatian economy, contributing approximately 7% of the GDP in 2005 and close to 6.5% in 2009. As can be seen the overall GDP contribution from agri-culture has a decreasing trend and this is due to an overall expansion of the economy in Croatia with agriculture lagging in the expansion. The agricultural imports are greater than the exports in the country and with development and expansion of the sector some parts of that can change.

Table 2: Agriculture Indicators of the contribution to overall GDP in Croatia*

Description of Item 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Output of Agriculture in Euros 2495.39 2587.381 2873.766 3122.31 2935.601

Percent of Ag in GDP (own calculation based on BoS)2. 6.98% 6.62% 6.71% 6.59% 6.47%

Gross Value Added (%) 3.18% 3.32% 3.11% 3.21% 3.17%

Total agricultural labor input (No. or workers (1,000)) 228 222 209 205 203

% of population working in Agriculture (%) 5.13% 5.00% 4.71% 4.62% 4.58%

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* Calculated based on Data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, 2010

3.4 Agriculture Production Croatia has an opportunity to transform the agricultural sector from one that has a surplus and exports cereals and imports cash crops like vegetables and fruits to one that irrigates more, has stronger agri-cultural institution, less centralized agricultural sector, and the ability to provide the necessary crops for cohesion with the EU framework. The country has plentiful water resources and the ability to irri-gate if water is allocated in such ways. The main problems with irrigation currently are the delivery system leakages and drainage of crop fields in times of excess precipitation. The current condition of agriculture in Croatia shows that the majority of arable land is owned by fami-ly farmers. With approximately 1,202,000 ha utilized for agriculture, Croatia contains arable land and gardens (66.4%), permanent grassland (meadows and pastures 26.5%), orchards (2.8%), vineyards (2.6%), olive groves (1.2%), kitchen gardens (0.4%), osier willows (<0.1%), and nurseries (<0.1%)

(Bureau of Statistics, 2010) see Figure 4.

Source: Bureau of Statistics Croatia, 2010

Figure 4: Land Distribution of Agricultural Area in Croatia %

According to statistical data, in 2007, 84% of the agricultural land, mostly arable land, gardens and pastures are family owned. Maize and wheat production takes approximately 50% of the arable land.

3.5 Total Production The production of major crops between 2005 and 2009 is shown in the Table 3. Laws that regulate the ecological production of agricultural land and food products have resulted in ecological agriculture covering approximately 0.68% of the total cultivated land of Croatia (Fifth National Communication, UNFCCC, 2010). The national irrigation project is developing and improving the irrigation infrastruc-ture program. Other improvements include securing the bulk water resources in the summer months

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and draining fields of excess runoff in times of heavy precipitation and also strengthening institutions to better understand and facilitate management within the agricultural sector. According to a 2010 publication by the European Commission emphasized the conditions previously mentioned but paints a positive picture for the policy of Croatian Agriculture, including the food sector.

The publication emphasizes that cereals dominate the agricultural production and Croatia is self-sufficient with wheat and maize. The other agricultural products in which Croatia is self-sufficient are potatoes, poultry meat, eggs, wine, and sugar. As far as livestock is concerned, only poultry meat and eggs are self-sufficient in Croatia, small production units dominate the sector, and Croatia is not self-sufficient in beef or milk production.

Table 3: Total Production in Croatia

No

Description of Item Million Euro (at Current Prices)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 Output Of The Agricultural 'Industry' (2+7) 2,495.39 2,587.38 2,873.77 3,122.31 2,935.60 2 Agricultural Output (3+6) 2,446.34 2,524.56 2,806.15 3,057.10 2,870.47 3 Agricultural Goods Output (4+5) 2,353.09 2,425.56 2,702.56 2,946.49 2,766.79 4 Crop Output 1,309.99 1,395.63 1,667.12 1,812.22 1,671.49 5 Animal Output 1,043.10 1,029.93 1,035.30 1,134.27 1,095.30 6 Agricultural Services 93.24 99.01 103.73 110.62 103.68 7 Non-Agricultural Secondary Activities (In-

separable) 49.05 62.82 67.61 65.21 65.13 Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, 2010

Table 4: Production in tons and per acre for crops and total production of livestock in Croatia

Crops 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Agricultural Production1 106 104 98 108 100Wheat Total '000 t 602 805 812 858 936Wheat Yield t per ha 4.1 4.6 4.6 5.5 5.2Maize Total '000 t 2207 1935 1425 2505 2183Maize Yield t per ha 6.9 6.5 4.9 8 7.4

Livestock and Poultry '000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Cattle 471 4832,3 467 454 447Pigs 1,205 1,4892,3 1,348 1,104 1,250Sheep 796 6802,3 646 643 619Poultry 10,640 10,0882,3 10,053 10,015 10,787

Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, 2010 1Net Agricultural Production, excluding Products used as fees for livestock 2Break in Time Series 3Until 2005, data referred to the situation as on 31 December of a previous year for legal entities and parts thereof and to the situation as on 15 January of a current year, while since 2006 they have referred to the situation as on1 December of a current year

The trend in agriculture in Croatia is relatively constant for production of the last 10 years. A flux of people from rural areas to urban areas has categorized more of the land in Croatia as rural. The ma-jority of the agricultural land in Croatia is family owned and this makes policy and climate change ad-aptation at a national scale more difficult. Because of the small holdings though, adaptation might be ahead of the country due to individual families making changes needed to keep production high. Less than 1% of the total agricultural area is under irrigation, the government has plans for more irrigation to be implemented (Fifth National Communication, 2010). The forested areas in Croatia are mainly owned by the state (78%, Fifth National Communication, 2010) and provide both an economic resource and a place for federal land to be saved for national parks and recreation. The cultivation of timber in Croatia is a contributing industry and has increased 16% in the last decade.

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3.6 Main production in the Sava Basin In the Sava basin, Croatia is in the upper middle reaches, with forested areas on the elevated reaches and significant agricultural areas on the Pannonian plans. Key crops are winter wheat, maize, potato and sugar beet. Yields amounts in hectograms per hectare (Hg/Ha) for the key crops have been ob-tained from FAO website: http://faostat.fao.org/ and are from 2012 and summarised as follows:

Crop Type Yield (Hg/Ha)

Yield (Tonnes/Ha)

winter wheat 53,473 5.35 maize 43,374 4.34 potato 147,848 14.78 sugar beet 400.000 40.00

3.7 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava Basin The climate in Croatia is varied between a coastal Mediterranean climate in coastal areas and a con-tinental climate in the northern parts of the country (Fifth National Communication, 2010; Croatian Bu-reau of Statistics, 2010). Temperatures in the region historically show warmer temperatures along the coastal areas with mild winters and hot summers. The temperatures in the northern areas are less mild in the winter and not a hot in the summer. The country has humid characteristics throughout the warmer periods of the year (World Bank, 2010; Fifth National Communication, 2010). Precipitation in Croatia shows varied differences throughout the country with precipitation decreasing from west to east in the Pannonian Plane and from the coastal areas inward on the coast. The range of precipitation is approximately 800 to 1,200 mm/annum in the Sava River Basin and lower in the coastal regions. Zagreb, as a proxy for agricultural areas in the Sava basin, has medium rainfall, with an average of 888 mm per year for the period 1961-1990. Precipitation is lower in the winter months and higher in the summer months. The suite of models shows that precipitation increase very slightly to 890 mm per year for the period 2011-2040 and 894 mm per year for the period 2041-2070, with a slight in-crease in winter precipitation and a slight decrease in summer precipitation.

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As shown in Figure 5, overall evapotranspiration is projected to change more significantly than rainfall, increasing from 710 mm per year (1961-1990), to 748 and 794 mm per year respectively for 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. Almost all this increase would occur in summer month. However, there is a high uncer-tainty in future precipitation that is especially pronounced in the summer months. The uncertainty for evapotranspiration is much smaller and similar to Ljubljana, with a possibility for the summer evapo-transpiration in the distant future to significantly increase compared to the near future. When modelling the impact of changes in the crop water balance to the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, the expected impacts are pronounced, as shown in Figure 6. Surplus rainfall in winter gets stored in the root zone, so there is some storage buffer that suits winter wheat, but to-wards the end of the growing season, the summer crops (potato, maize and sugar beet) are experi-encing water stress. Some water stress is already currently experienced by potato and sugar beet, as a result of their relatively shallow root zone compared to maize, and water stress is projected to be-come more pronounced as the ET increases in summer, with significant yield reductions as a result. Due to high uncertainty in future precipitation, uncertainty in the crop modelling results is also consid-erable, especially for the distant future.

ETp

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ETp

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Figure 5: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Zagreb

Figure 6: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Zagreb (error bars indicate the uncertainty ranges due to cli-mate modelling)

ETp

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3.8 Vulnerability Assessment The national communication of Croatia with the UNFCCC gives an understanding that Croatia be-lieves climate change to be impacting Croatia and action needs to be taken in order to accommodate to the possible impacts. These concerns are expressed more and more in forestry and agriculture practices in Croatia. The changes in Croatia have been observed to work differently between the coastal areas and the inland areas. Temperature changes are predicted to change differently throughout the year. In the northern part of the country temperatures are predicted to increase more in the cooler temperature periods and in the coastal areas, more in the warmer temperature periods (Fifth National Communication, 2010). Precipitation is not expected to change over northern Croatia, the only precipitation changes are ex-pected to come in the form of a summer decrease in the coastal area of Croatia, which has low pre-cipitation in summer months, and a slight increase in winter precipitation (Fifth National Communica-tion, 2010). According to the communication, the water resources in Croatia are in danger of becoming less and will result in less water availability for drinking water for Croatia. In analysis and in communication with experts, it is also expected to impact the major sectors that rely on water resources (i.e. agricul-ture, and navigation). Agriculture and forestry are expected to feel the impact of climate change. In agriculture the major worry is in extreme weather being detrimental with the economic output of crops. The major worries are included with the water availability for crops that result in greater frequency in droughts and higher stresses on crops. The forestry sector is expecting a shift in the type of forest that will grow in Croatia and a worry over an increased number of fires in coastal regions in the warm months will take a cur-rent problem and make it worse.

3.9 Adaptation In Croatia it is estimated that climate change will have an impact on the water resources in the coun-try. Estimates vary, but decrease in some of the water resources are anywhere from 10-20% accord-ing to the Fifth National Communication, 2010. The decrease is estimated to have an impact on any sector that uses water for the benefit of that sector and facing those challenges has been noted by Croatia. Depending on how the analysis of climate changes on agriculture the impact of production can be positive or negative. Predictions of warmer climates predict both increased maximum summer tem-peratures but also a longer growing period. If water resources are available, the longer seasons could allow for more production. The analysis under this study shows that most likely overall water availa-bility will not significantly decrease in case of changing climate but water stress will increase during summer as a result of rising temperatures. Another aspect, not covered under this study, is the increased occurrence of more dry days and more wet days, leading to more flooding or more drought affected crops. If droughts and precipitation event s cause detriment to these crops and the proper resources of water or protection from large events are not available, production could suffer greatly. In Croatia, precise adaptation scenarios have yet to be determined. Strategies and policy changes, according to Croatia, need to come in ways that have not been implemented strongly thus far and in-clude research into more resilient crop types, better technical implications for agriculture, and the in-creased use of irrigation systems. The impacts can be great, but if the correct actions are taken, Cro-atia has the capability to adapt accordingly to the risk of climate change on agriculture.

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According to the Fifth National Communication, 2010, the following are guidelines for research in ag-riculture: to identify areas in the world having already the climate profile similar to that predicted for Croatia

and analyse the agricultural production technology and the product range in such areas; to initiate (finance) improvement projects focused on the development of populations and varieties

adapted to soil types and climate conditions in Croatia's agricultural regions that will meet new re-quirements in the future;

to initiate permanent research into existing agricultural crops (maize, wheat, potato, apple, wine grape) in the areas of Croatia or abroad (through international cooperation) containing already el-ements of the model predicted (e.g. testing maize or soya bean for drought under the conditions of the Dalmatian hinterland and islands); and

to investigate new systems of tillage, sowing (planting), sowing density. In addition, the analysis done under this study shows that supplementary irrigation will help minimize yield losses. In addition, the use of irrigation systems would enable a route away from traditional field crops to more profitable crops like vegetables and fruits under more intensive cultivation. The impacts that climate change will have on forestry is unknown, but according to the Fifth National Communication, forests will change in the future with new plant species for the region, shape chang-es, and density changes. This will have an impact on the forestry and tourism sectors of Croatia. The major concern with forestry and climate change is the increased risk of forest fire on the Croatian Coast. Models predict that the danger from forest fires is expected to increase as warmer tempera-tures and less predicted rainfall impact the severity of the risk. According to the Fifth National Communication, 2010 the following research topics have been deter-mined for forestry in Croatia: Research of carbon absorption from the atmosphere into the biomass Carbon uptake by forest soils Modelling changes in forest ecosystems of Croatia under the influence of climate change; Natural regeneration of forests under the conditions of exposure to harmful impacts; Monitoring climate changes in testing the provenance of domestic and foreign forest tree species; Forest pests as an indicator of changed climate conditions.

4 Bosnia and Herzegovina

4.1 Overview of Bosnia and Herzegovina The geography of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is mostly mountainous with very little coastal area. There are 64 peaks in BiH that rise above 1,500 meters and the mountainous terrain allows for sharp river valleys and slopes of the landsides. Approximately 45% of the land area in BiH is used for Agri-culture (EU, ACTROSS, 2006). The cultural situation in BiH makes obtaining data and delineating the production of agriculture diffi-cult. Two different state entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and Republika Srpska (RS) make up the country of BiH and both entities have statistical departments that produce results for their respective states.6 This separation makes collecting data for the whole country diffi-cult.

6 There is also Brcko District which is a neutral, self-governing administrative unit, under the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina

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Data from the FBiH Federal Office of Statistics has canton specific data which can be obtained for the SRB for crop production, yields in both monetary figures and tons per hectare, and the amount of land used. The RS Institute of Statistics has data in statistical yearbooks of which the latest is from 2008 that is publically available. Data before that has been taken from a 2006 report funded by the European Commission and written by ARCTROSS, a consortium of consulting firms in Europe (EC, 2006). This data in this study is either from the statistical agencies, the EC report, the World Bank databases, or by calculation. The data should be taken as general and if further analysis of data such as this is done, it should be verified by the respective entities and at state level for BIH.

4.2 Agriculture in the Economy The economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina is different between the two entities. The FBiH has a higher GDP than the RS, but growth rates in RS have been rising more in recent years. As can be seen in Table 5, the agriculture sector in BiH has grown in general over the last decade. In 2009 the sector took a hit, but still produced more than 2006 amounts. The agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina contributes approximately 10-11% to the GDP but those numbers vary between the two entities within BiH; according to a report funded by the Europe-an Commission in 2006 by ACOTRASS. The production in FBiH is less (7-8%) compared to that of RS (17%).

Table 5: Agricultural indicators for BiH including the available data from the FBiH and RS

Description of Item State/ Entity

2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Output of Agriculture in 000 KM RS1

FBiH2 525,827 642,879 702,819 763,423 812,672 790,762 BiH4 1,010,400 1,843,428 1,988,161 2,207,753 2,203,620 1,922,376

in 000 USD BiH3 582,699 1,135,325 1,276,426 1,531,142 1,684,339 1,365,421 Percent of Ag in GDP (own calculation based on BoS.)

RS1 FBiH2 6.43 5.87 5.73 5.50 5.19 5.19

% of GDP BiH3 10.58 10.55 10.42 10.06 9.10 8.01 Gross Value Added (%)

RS1 FBiH2 6.43 5.87 5.73 5.5 5.19 5.19

Agricultural Value Added (%GDP)

BiH3 10.58 8.81 2.06 6.10 4.18 -0.76

Agricultural Land (% of land Area)

RS1 FBiH2 BiH3 41.60 42.13 42.17 41.97 .. ..

Arable Land (% of land area)

RS1 FBiH2 BiH3 19.53 20.02 20.06 19.96 .. ..

Forest Area (% of land area) BiH3 42.68 42.68 42.68 42.68 .. .. Land Under Cereal Production (Hectares)

BiH3 364,765 317,350 312,527 310,427 .. ..

Source: Various, see below Note: All FBiH indicators include Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry as they are grouped together in FBiH economic analysis 1 Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics, 2008, http://www.rzs.rs.ba/English.htm 2 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Office of Statistics, 2010 http://www.fzs.ba/Eng/index.htm 3 World Bank Group, 2011, Development Data Platform (DDP) http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?queryId=189 4 Data is calculated into Bosnian convertible Marks (KM) based on exchange rates from the CIA – The World Fact book, 2011. The calcula-tion uses the exchange rates listed and converts the data acquired from the World Bank in USD to KM for comparison to entity data. All FB&H indicators include Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry as one value as they are grouped together in FB&H economic analysis.

BiH have several difficult hindrances that make analysis of the agricultural sector fairly difficult. First the data available for BiH is sparsely determined and not that reliable for specific analysis. Also, BiH is broken into two entities RS and FBiH. RS has more agricultural holdings per capita than FBIH. The most favourable lands for agriculture are in the valleys and the more pastoral favoured areas are

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in the mountains. In the Initial National Communication under the UNFCC7, BiH states that over half of the food needs of the country must be imported therefore warranting room for improvement in the agricultural sector. The Communication also states that over 95% of the land in BiH is privately owned and the majority of agricultural units are small scale operations that are sufficient for the pri-vate ownership of the land. The percentage of people employed in the agricultural sector is difficult to estimate due to the number of private holdings and the number of people working in the sector that are not actually claiming to work in the sector. This is due to the number of people claiming unemployment in order to access so-cial security benefits.

4.3 Total Production

4.3.1 Republic Srpska The distribution of cultivated areas in the RS amounts to 83% of the total agricultural areas amounting to 995,000 Ha (from 2007). In terms of arable land, this was calculated to be 595,709 Ha in 2007. This is shown graphically in Figure 7 and Figure 8 below.

Source: Institute of Statistics, Republic of Srpska 2011

Figure 7: Distribution of Cultivable Area in RS, (this is 83% of total 995,000 Ha Agricultural area in RS from 2007)

7 Initial National Communication of Bosnia and Herzegovina under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, October, 2009.

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Source: Institute of Statistics, Republic of Srpska 2011

Figure 8: Distribution of Arable Land in RS (Total Arable Land was 595,709 Ha in 2007)

Table 6 below provides indications of land use for RS for the period 2005-2007 and provides indica-tions of the main indicators of agricultural production (e.g. crops, livestock and animal products).

Table 6: Land Use and Agricultural figures for the RS in BiH (2005-2007)

Main indicators of agricultural production 2005 2006 2007

Crop production, in tons

Wheat 174469 153949 172481

Oat 29753 32843 29647

Maize 757951 740149 434593

Potato 208447 178330 165333

Clover 167073 159233 86793

Fruits 117512 139706 145493

Vegetables 125180 166540 124754

Number of livestock and poultry heads - end of the year

Cattle 220065 233351 235513

Pigs 533928 594727 416156

Sheep 395517 460607 481256

Horses 16108 15915 15536

Goats 27675 30917 25949

Poultry 5612886 7178840 8191229

Animal production

Cow’s milk, thousand litres 315029 340823 401122

Ewe’s milk, thousand litres 6037 7186 6876

Goat’s milk, thousand litres 3370 2616 2219

38.0%

1.3%6.2%

13.5%0.1%

40.9%

cereals

industrial crops

vegetables

fodder crops

Nurseries, flowers anddecoration

Fallows and uncultivatedarable fields

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Main indicators of agricultural production 2005 2006 2007

Wool, tons 525 633 725

Eggs, mill. 304 311 469

Honey, tons 1155 1370 1196Source: Institute of Statistics, Republic of Srpska, http://www.rzs.rs.ba/English.htm

4.3.2 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina The distribution of cultivated areas in the FBiH amounts to 62% of the total agricultural areas amount-ing to 1,134,000 Ha (from 2009). In terms of distribution of sown areas of arable land, this was calcu-lated to be 49% of a total 391,000 Ha of Arable Land in FBiH. The other 51% includes fallow land and unfarmed areas (FBiH, Federal Office of Statistics, 2010. This information is shown graphically in Figure 9 and Figure 10 below. Substantial further information can be found at the FBiH Federal Of-fice of Statistics website http://www.fzs.ba/ In terms of agricultural yields the 2010 statistical yearbook provides information from 2005 - 2009 for the FBiH. Figure 9 and 10 below provides data on the main indicators of agricultural production be-tween 2005 and 2009 for crops and the number of head of livestock.

Source: Federal Office of Statistics, FBiH 2010

Figure 9: Distribution of Cultivable Area in the FBiH

Source: Federal Office of Statistics, FBiH 2010

Figure 10: Distribution of Sown Area of Arable Land in the FBiH

56.5%

6.2%0.7%

36.7% Arable Land and Garden

Orchard

Vineyard

Meadow

44.3%

1.0%

22.4%

32.3% Cereal

Industrial Crop

Vegetable

Fodder Crop

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Table 7: Agricultural Yields from 2005 - 2009 for FBiH

Main indicators of agricultural production

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Crop production yield in 000’s tons

Wheat 64.2 65.2 71.7 75.2 75.0 Cereals 316.7 327.0 282.6 349.7 352.8 Vegetables 340.6 351.3 322.6 357.9 358.2 Fruits 78.1 92.2 99.7 95.0 118.4 Cash Crops 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6

Number of livestock heads – in 000’s

Cattle 234.1 233.3 224.8 225.6 221.9

Pigs 91.5 91.7 90.6 92.9 94.9

Sheep 506.9 545.4 549.5 533.1 534.4 Source: Federal Office of Statistics, FBiH, Statistical Yearbook, 2010

In BiH agricultural areas account for approximately 52% of the land area and 95% of this is privately owned. The northern areas of the country have rich soils and are good for growing cereals and staple crops. The mountainous areas are not good for growing crops and are used for animal grazing and crops such as potatoes and root crops. The coastal areas have a karstic nature to them and accord-ing to the Initial National Communication, 2009, have high potential for cash crops (vine crops and citrus). The forestry in BiH is large in land area but has not been utilized to the fullest extent for the economy. Of the reserves available only small amounts of forests are available for felling and due to reasons outside of the government, illegal logging, fires, and the remaining land mines from the war (Initial Na-tional Communication, 2009). This means that the potential for economic activity in BiH is very high, but due to having two state entities within the country that have two different policies on forestry, it makes national forestry management very difficult.

4.4 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava River Basin The climate in BiH varies widely across the country; it is subjected to a continental climate in the northern parts of the country; there is a sub-mountainous and mountainous climate in the areas of the country above 1,000 m, and a Mediterranean climate in the areas closer to the coast. The temperature ranges across the country with cold winters and warm summers in the north and the mountainous areas where cold temperatures dominate the mountainous areas in the winter and the temperatures are milder on the northern plains. The areas closer to the coast observe milder winters and hot summers (Initial National Communication, 2009). Precipitation amounts vary between 800 mm/annum in the northern parts of the country and 2,000 mm in the mountainous regions. The mountainous and northern portions of the country see the high-est amounts of precipitation in June and the south of BiH and areas near the coast see the highest precipitation amounts typically in November and December. BiH is generally influenced by a warm humid air mass coming from the west and south in the warmer periods of the year. This is the reason for the high precipitation amounts in late autumn for the coastal areas. Banja Luka, in RS was selected as the proxy for agricultural areas in the SRB in BiH. The area re-ceives high rainfall, with an average of 1002 mm/year for the period 1961-1990. Precipitation is high-er in early summer and late autumn and lowest in the early spring. The suite of models shows that precipitation decrease very slightly to 991 mm/year for the period 2011-2040 and 950 mm/year for the period 2041-2070, with a slight increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipita-tion.

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Figure 11: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Banja Luka

As shown in Figure 11, overall evapotranspiration is projected to change more significantly than rain-fall, increasing from 651 mm per year (1961-1990), to 695 and 737 mm per year respectively for 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. Almost all this increase would occur in summer months, which is com-bined with a reduced summer precipitation in the distant future. There is a small uncertainty about the future evapotranspiration; uncertainty in future summer precipitation is somewhat greater, but the re-duction is clearly visible.

ETp

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When modelling the impact of changes in the crop water balance to the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, the impacts are pronounced, as shown in

Figure 12. Surplus rainfall in winter gets stored in the root zone, so there is some storage buffer ena-bling winter wheat to be unaffected, but towards the end of the growing season, the summer crops are experiencing water stress. Some water stress is already experienced by potato and tomato under the current climate conditions, as a result of their relatively shallow root zone compared to maize, and water stress is projected to become more pronounced as the ET increases in summer, with significant yield reductions up to 20% on average as a result. Although the uncertainty is propagated from the climate parameters, the yield reductions are clear for potato and tomato.

Figure 12: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Banja Luka (error bars indicate the uncertainty ranges due to climate modelling)

4.5 Vulnerability Assessment Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) states in the Initial National Communication with the UNFCCC, 2009, that BiH is very susceptible to climate change due to their economic dependency on the agriculture and forestry sectors and to a lesser extent hydropower. The impact of climate change on the country

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is stated to be large due also to the limited adaptive capacity that is available in BiH (First National Communication, 2009). Temperature changes are estimated to rise throughout the country. The temperatures across the country are predicted to rise, more so inland than the coastal areas. Along with the increased temper-ature the number of days with hot temperatures (over 30oC) is expected to rise. Precipitation is estimated to have less summer precipitation, according to the First National Commu-nication (2009), and less or stable precipitation amounts in other seasons. The number of dry days throughout the year is expected to increase and these impacts are assumed to have profound im-pacts on BiH. BiH is expecting agriculture to be impacted by the changes in precipitation and the seasonal air tem-perature and the changes in arable land as a result. Primary adaptation strategies for agriculture in BiH, according to the Initial National Communication, 2009, include crop rotation, a better crop mix-ture, the inclusion of agriculture in water management strategies, infrastructure to benefit agriculture, and the use of intelligent irrigation techniques. Additional secondary adaptation strategies are sug-gested training sessions for farmers and improved insurance policies for the agricultural sector.

4.6 Adaptation BiH has had little water management assessment for the entire country in some years since the war. This has led to a loss of data recording as a national entity; the two state entities both have Hydro-Met institutions that are measuring data. This point has been strongly observed in the Initial National Communication, 2009, and the major impacts on the sectors will include: Impacts of extreme events that will occur more often or with more intensity that will test the current

systems and impact the economy of BiH; The resulting evaporation from temperature rise that will create more aridity in BiH; Lower flow in river basins that will impact the energy, tourism, agriculture, and other major sectors

in BiH; Lack of water throughout BiH; No analysis of the impact of climate change has been done by BiH, according to the Initial National Communication, the biggest impacts on agriculture for South Eastern Europe, which include BiH are as follows: Increased temperatures will impact the development rate of crops, increase the possibility of

drought, and change the intra-annual variability of minimum temperatures which will yield a higher probability of frost damage.

Total growing season may be changed depending on summer or winter crops with increased tem-peratures throughout the year.

Warmer winters can impact fruit production that requires a winter chilling. Livestock will be impacted by the increased temperatures that may cause stress from heat. One benefit mentioned is an improvement of dry-matter production from the higher carbon dioxide

concentrations. The impact of drought is of great concern due to the variability of precipitation, which already exists in BiH, and a decrease in precipitation can induce greater droughts and also change the water balance by increasing evaporation. These impacts would prove devastation on current agricultural practices and change to these practices will be necessary if precipitation reduces to adverse levels (Initial Na-tional Communication, 2009).

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Adaptation strategies that have been introduced by BiH in agriculture generally focus on mitigating the impact of drought. This can be managed; they say, through better technology provided to farmers, new crop type and rotation methods for the farmers, and more irrigation to be used throughout the country. Irrigation poses a problem in BiH due to the varied flow regimes of the rivers, so it is sug-gested (Initial National Communication, 2009) that infrastructure to accommodate for increased irriga-tion will be necessary. In forestry, according to the Initial National Communication (2009), BiH mentions the changes in for-est type as a result of climate change. The impact of a changed climate can impact the risk of forest fires and the introduction and proliferation of pests in BiH. These changes may alter the type and health of forests. Adaptation measures for forests in BiH have only been visited at a preliminary level according to the Initial National Communication. Forests need to have more studies and analysis done on them with respect to climate change. Institutional policy changes include: Setting areas aside for protection in the form of national parks or forests, The controlling of illegal logging practices, and The appropriate sustainable use and treatment of the forests.

5 Serbia

5.1 Overview of the Republic of Serbia Serbia is a landlocked country in South Eastern Europe with approximately 7.3 million inhabitants. The country relies on the Danube River for shipping transport and is geographically different with plains that provide fertile soil in the north; mountains of limestone further south and older mountain ranges in the southeast. The 1990s in Serbia was a rough time economically and the country experi-enced conflict and independence. Currently Serbia has succeeded in growing economically and has shown interest in acceding into the EU, but this is still unlikely to happen for a number of years.

5.2 Data Availability Data in Serbia is available through the Bureau of Statistics. The Bureau of Statistics has data on crop and livestock production and has sufficient data for areas within Serbia. Areas within Serbia have some sparse data and the data should be verified before being used.

5.3 Agriculture in the Economy In 2009 19% of the total labour force was included in Agriculture (Bureau of Statistics, 2009). In Ser-bia, agriculture has traditionally been a good contributor to the overall economy of the country. After the conflicts in the 1990s, the amount of agriculture within the country decreased and remained low compared with the overall agricultural share of GDP in previous decades. More recently though, agri-culture has been developing strongly as part of the Serbian Economy and, according to the UNFCC First Communication of Serbia, (November, 2010), this has shown significant increases in past years. According to the communication, agriculture now contributes about 10% of the GDP in Serbia and contributes 26% to the export revenues. The major exports from Serbia include meat products, fruits, and vegetables. Table 8 shows some of this information, whilst Table 9 shows the share of certain agricultural products in the share of agricultural production.

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Table 8: Agricultural Statistics for Serbia

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Gross Value Added at basic Prices mill RSD1 1424278.3 1673754 1959133 2350958.8

Output of Agriculture in mil. RSD1 173608.4 189701.7 202406.3 246104.5

Percent of Ag in GDP (own calculation based on BoS. 10.31% 9.67% 8.79% 9.04%

Gross Value Added (%) 12.19% 11.33% 10.33% 10.47%

Total agricultural labour input (No. or workers (1,000)) 54090 48505 45091

% of population working in Agriculture (%) 3.77% 3.39% 3.23%Note: There are approximately 83 RSD in 1 USD Source: Bureau of Statistics of Serbia, 2009

Table 9: Share of certain agricultural products in the value of total agricultural production

Commodity 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wheat 5.8 5.6 6.6 7.1 6.5

Maize 25.9 22.6 17.2 25.1 26.5

Sugar Beet 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.8

Sunflower 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.0

Potatoes 3.2 1.1 2.9 3.1 3.0

Apples 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2

Plums 1.3 2.5 3.8 2.5 2.5

Grapes 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.4

Raspberries 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.4 2.7

Cattle 7.0 7.2 7.6 6.3 5.8

Cow's Milk 8.2 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.0

Pigs 14.3 13.7 14.0 10.8 11.0

Poultry 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 Source: Bureau of Statistics for Serbia 2009

The communication goes on to say that the agriculture potential in Serbia is very great and with the correct policy and technological measures, the agricultural sector will be a very high contributor to the GDP of Serbia in the future. Between 1990 and 2000 a significant change in land use has been seen with urban areas taking over former pastures and agricultural lands and forested areas growing due to the decrease in agriculture due to stoppages in the 1990s. According to the Initial Communication (2010) land areas comprises of 65% agricultural land, 29.7% of forested land, and 5.3% of other land cover.

5.4 Climate and climate predictions for the Sava Basin Serbia is situated on the Balkan Peninsula and is categorized as a continental climate for the majority of the country. The mountainous areas have a continental climate and the very south western portions of the country have a Mediterranean subtropical climate. The overall climate of the country can be de-scribed as warm and moderate temperatures, especially in the summer, with cold and wintry condi-tions in colder months in the more mountainous portions of the country (Initial National Communica-tion, 2010). Temperature distribution across the country varies with altitude with warmer temperatures in lower altitudes and colder temperatures in altitudes above 1,000 meters. Precipitation in the country varies

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throughout the geography with as little as 600 mm/annum of precipitation in the northern parts of Ser-bia and in Kosovo and over 1,000 mm/annum of precipitation in the most mountainous areas of the country. The northern plains of Serbia receive precipitation in the late spring and early summer months with a secondary precipitation maximum occurring in February. The south western portions of the country experience the heaviest precipitation in late autumn and early winter due to the Mediter-ranean climate influence on that region. Analysis in Serbia has shown that the climate regime in Serbia is indeed changing and will change into the future (Initial National Communication, 2010). It is expected that temperature changes will occur with the greatest temperature increases in spring and summer months and less increase in win-ter and autumn months. Precipitation change has a less distinguishable change, possible increases and decreases have been modelled for Serbia. The biggest decreases are expected to be in the spring months when Serbia receives the most precipitation. It is difficult to estimate the change in precipitation though due to modelled increases and decreases in precipitation. Sremska Mitrovica has been selected as the proxy for representative agricultural areas in the SRB in Serbia. This location has medium-low rainfall, with an average of 619 mm per year for the period 1961-1990. Precipitation is highest in summer and lowest in autumn and early spring. The suite of models shows that precipitation increase slightly to 636 mm per year for the period 2011-2040 and then decreases to 608 mm per year for the period 2041-2070, with a slight increase in winter precipi-tation and a decrease in summer precipitation.

Figure 13: Precipitation (P) and potential Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections for Sremska Mitrovica

As shown in

ETp

(m

m/m

on

th)

ETp

(m

m/m

on

th)

P (

mm

/mo

nth

)

P (

mm

/mo

nth

)

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Figure 13, overall evapotranspiration is projected to change more significantly than rainfall, increasing from 665 mm per year (1961-1990), to 712 and 753 mm per year respectively for 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. Almost all this increase would occur in the summer months. However, precipitation at Sremska Mitrovica would significantly increase during winters in the near future and significantly de-crease during summers in the distant future, although a degree of the summer reduction is fairly un-certain (for example, average reduction in July is 15 mm/month, but one climate modelling chain re-sults in a reduction of 40 mm/month). When modelling the impact of changes in the crop water balance to the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, the impacts are pronounced, as shown in

ETp

(m

m/m

on

th)

ETp

(m

m/m

on

th)

P (

mm

/mo

nth

)

P (

mm

/mo

nth

)

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Figure 14. Among the four locations, the impacts are the most pronounced at Sremska Mitrovica. Surplus rainfall in winter gets stored in the root zone, so there is some storage buffer enabling winter wheat to be unaffected, but towards the end of the growing season, the summer crops are experienc-ing water stress. Significant water stress and yield reduction is already experienced by potato, maize and sugar beet under the current climate conditions, as a result of the combination of root zone depth and low overall rainfall, and water stress is projected to become more pronounced as the ET increas-es in summer, with significant yield reductions up to 30% on average as a result. The uncertainty is propagated from the climate parameters, but the yield reductions are clear not only for potato and sugar beet, but also for maize and provide potential justification for farmers to consider a move to more drought tolerant crops in the future.

Figure 14: Water uptake (ETa/ETp) and yield levels for Sremska Mitrovica (error bars indicate the uncertainty rang-es due to climate modelling)

5.5 Vulnerability Assessment Recent climate changes in Serbia have shown an increase in temperature in recent future. This is expected to continue as predicted by models (Initial National Communication, 2010). These impacts on water resources are expected to show lower water availability in the country, lower flow in rivers, and less overall water for Serbia. These predictions are preliminary, and further research is being de-veloped in an effort to continue this analysis. With expected temperature increases, it has been assumed in Serbia that precipitation will decrease and/or evapotranspiration will increase. These results will impact crop growth and yields. Major con-cerns in Serbia are that disease and drought will be such that the agricultural sector is considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Initial National Communication, 2010). Forestry is also expected to be vulnerable to climate change. Disease and forest fires pose the most threat and current observations add confidence to the negative impacts of a changing climate (Initial National Communication, 2010). These impacts are expected to change the type and shape of for-ests in Serbia.

5.6 Adaptation The Initial National Communication from 2010 has indicated that adaptation to climate change will be necessary for Serbia. An assessment for the strategic areas and measures for adaptation to climate change has been made in the water resources, forestry and agricultural sector.

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With consideration to water resources, the overall opinion of models seems to say that less water will be available for use in the future (Initial National Communication, 2010). The strategies that Serbia has come up with that follow adaptation to that loss of water are shown below in Table 10:

Table 10: Strategic areas and measures of adaptation to climate change in the water resource sector

Strategic area

Adaptation measures Challenges

and obstacles

Reducing Risks

Assess vulnerability to climate change Develop vulnerability map and map of flood risk Determine need for widening and deepening riverbeds and their

additional cleaning Estimate ability of dams and other constructions, as well as city

channel systems for flood control Improve flood resistance systems Estimate capability of irrigation and drainage systems Improve irrigation and drainage systems Establish vulnerability for important rivers

Insufficient funds Lack of awareness

Policy

Adopt flood control, including financial needs for its implementa-tion

Adopt a special plan for flood managing Improve inter–sector planning Improve planning of integral water resource management Improve regulations and directives Include climate change impacts in the sector strategy and action

plan Adopt an adaptation plan within the sector

Insufficient funds Insufficient technical

and technological ca-pacity

Lack of awareness

Monitoring and Research

Improve the climate monitoring system Improve hydrological observation network Improve early warning systems for climate and hydrological ex-

treme events Establish a data base on extreme meteorological and hydrological

events and disasters Improve research in area of numerical modelling of hydrological

processes (precipitation/snow–runoff for different time intervals) Intensify multidisciplinary research on climate change impacts Intensify research on climate change impacts on water resources

Insufficient funds

Capacity Building and Public Awareness

Strengthen capacity of responsible institutions Strengthen local community capacity Strengthen research capacity Raise the public awareness level and improve information on cli-

mate change impacts and possible adaptation measures, in gen-eral

Insufficient funds

Source: Initial National Communication for Serbia, 2010

In the forestry sector, it is expected that climate change will cause detriment and economic loss to Serbia (Initial National Communication, 2010). An expected transformation of the forests in Serbia is expected. The following areas and measures of adaptation for the forestry sector as described in the Initial National Communication (2010) are shown in Table 11 below.

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Table 11: Strategic areas and measures of adaptation to climate change in the forestry sector

Strategic area

Adaptation measures Challenges

and obstacles

Risks Reduction

Detailed forest mapping Detailed vulnerability assessment to climate change Improve forest fire protection systems Increase protection of forests against vermin and plant diseases Intensive forestation


and technological ca-pacities

Policy

Revise regulations and directives in forest management Include climate change impact problems into forest sector strategy

and Action Plan Adopt an adaptation plan within the sector, including its financial

needs

Insufficient funds Inadequate technical

capacities Lack of awareness

concerning climate change


Improve integral monitoring of the effects of air, water and soil pol-lution and climate change on forest ecosystems

Intensify multidisciplinary research of climate change impacts on forests

Develop and apply strategy evaluation methods and adaptation measures, including measures for strengthening the resilience of forests to climate change


and technological ca-pacities


Capacity building in institutions responsible for forest management Educate rangers Strengthen the role of local communities in sustainable forest man-

agement Raise awareness of the scientific community and forest owners Raise the public awareness level and improve information on cli-

mate change impacts and possible adaptation measures

Insufficient funds


In agriculture, similar changes in climate are projected to have negative impacts on the agricultural sector mainly in the form of greater and longer droughts and the impact of increased temperatures on the yields of crops (Initial National Communication, 2010). A study done in Serbia on the impact of crop yields due to changes in climate in Serbia using climate data from the HadCM3 model and the crop yield model CropSyst for the time period of 2030 to 2060 as compared to 1960 to 1990 show that significant differences in crop yield will be seen. Adaptation strategies if various areas are shown in Table 12 below.

Table 12: Strategic areas and measures of adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector

Strategic area

Adaptation measures Challenges and obstacles

Risks Reduction

Detailed assessment of vulnerability to climate changes Improve irrigation and drainage Invest in new irrigation systems and related infrastructure Adjust harvest dates and the field work calendar to the new climate

conditions Reduce the share of summer crops and increase the share of win-

ter crops in the harvest structure Change mulching practices Improve soil structure with adequate treatment in order to increase

its water storage capacity Introduce measures to protect land from erosion Change practices concerning the use of fertilizers and chemicals

Insufficient funds Insufficient awareness Farmers not ade-

quately educated or informed

Insufficient technology

Policy

Include climate change impacts in sector strategies and Action Plans

Create an adaptation plan within the sector Improve inter–sector planning and integral management of water

Insufficient funds Lack of awareness.

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Strategic area

Adaptation measures Challenges and obstacles

resources in catchment areas of importance to agriculture Introduce new insurance mechanism


Improve climate monitoring systems Establish a data base containing information on extreme weather

occurrences and disasters connected with climate change, includ-ing information on damage in the agriculture and other sectors

Improve climate monitoring and early warning systems of droughts and other extreme climate episodes of importance to agriculture

Research and development of new sorts and hybrids Develop and apply methods and models for integral assessment of

climate change impacts on agriculture and economic parameters of adaptation options

Develop and apply agro–climate indicators in agro–climate and agro-ecological zoning

Insufficient funds Lack of awareness Inadequate technical

and technological ca-pacity


Improve the advisory service related to crop selection Strengthen institutional capacity building Improve the way in which experts and the general public are in-

formed about climate change impacts and possible ways of adapta-tion

Insufficient funds Lack of awareness


6 Irrigation as an Adaptation Mechanism

Based on analysis of the irrigation schemes financed under the Irrigation Development Project in BiH, irrigation is an adequate adaptation mechanism to mitigate water stress induced by climate changes. Average capital investments costs are in the order of US$ 8,000 per hectare, with around US$ 800 annual operating and maintenance costs (including depreciation). For the 2041-2070 scenarios, irri-gation requirement for maize, potato and sugar beet would be in the order of 2,600m3, 2,700 m3 and 3,800 m3 annually respectively. According to the economic model simulations BIH is expected to lose 5% of GDP due to climate im-pact. The above mentioned irrigation investment will negate this effect. The rate of return from irriga-tion investment in BIH is estimated to be 1. In case, BIH has access to funding at favourable condi-tions, irrigation investment seems to be the most appropriate adaptation techniques to the climate change where the share of the crops analysed in this project are the highest (~2% GDP). However, with irrigation it will also be possible to shift to more intensive and profitable crops like vege-tables and fruits. Current irrigation withdrawals are limited (less than 1% of total water flow), and larger scale withdrawals are possible, although for each area the impact of the irrigation withdrawals on the river eco-system would need careful consideration. Under the BiH IDP, 3 planned and designed irrigation schemes in the Sava Basin (Gorazde, Novo Selo and Pelagicevo) were analysed for their resilience against climate changes under 3 climate sce-narios. Since irrigation schemes are designed at a peak demand for around 10-12 hours of operation at a day at peak demand, all 3 schemes were able to accommodate increased irrigation supplies un-der the most extreme climate scenarios. The most direct impact would be increased operation hours until maximum 16 hours a day for the hottest periods in July and August, all which can be accommo-dated by the current designs.

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7 References

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http://www.fzs.ba/Eng/index.htm 4 Federal Office of Statistics, FBiH, Statistical Yearbook, 2010 5 ISRBC, 2008. Characterization Report on the SRB (draft), Zagreb. 6 Lampietti, J.A., D.G. Lugg, P. Van der Celen and A. Branczik, (2009). The Changing Face of

Rural Space: Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans. World Bank. 7 Marjanovic, N., 2006. Water Management in Serbia. Conference of the Water Directors of

the Euro-Mediterranean and South-East European Countries, Athens, 6-7 November, 2006 8 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food Republic of Slovenia, 2007. Slovenia Agriculture,

Forestry and Food Processing Industry, Basic Characteristics and Numbers. Ljubljana. http://www.mkgp.gov.si/fileadmin/mkgp.gov.si/pageuploads/saSSo/Publikacije/Acrobat_Document.pdf

9 Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics, 2008, http://www.rzs.rs.ba/English.htm 10 Serbian Bureau of Statistics, 2009, http://www.stat.gov.rs/Rzs/erzs.htm 11 Slovenian Bureau of Statistics, 2010 http://www.stat.si/statweb/en/home 12 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, October, 2009.First National

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cation for Croatia 14 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2010, Initial National Communi-

cation for Serbia 15 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2010, Fifth National Communi-

cation for Slovenia 16 World Bank Group, 2011, Development Data Platform (DDP)

http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?queryId=189

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