Water Balance, Freshwater Flows, and Precipitation Associated with Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary Watershed Amy L. Shallcross, PE Operations Supervisor,

Water Balance, Freshwater Water Balance, Freshwater Flows, and Precipitation Flows, and Precipitation Associated with Climate Associated with Climate

Change Change in the Delaware Estuary in the Delaware Estuary

WatershedWatershed Amy L. Shallcross, PEAmy L. Shallcross, PE

Operations Supervisor, Water Operations Supervisor, Water Resources Management BranchResources Management Branch

Delaware River Basin CommissionDelaware River Basin Commission

Delaware River Delaware River Basin Basin

CommissionCommission

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WHAT DOES DRBC DO?WHAT DOES DRBC DO?

Manages Resources on a Watershed Manages Resources on a Watershed BasisBasis

Regulates Water Quality and QuantityRegulates Water Quality and Quantity Plans for Use of Water ResourcesPlans for Use of Water Resources Coordinates / FacilitatesCoordinates / Facilitates Educates about Water ResourcesEducates about Water Resources

Delaware Delaware RiverRiver

Watershed Watershed FactsFacts Nearly 15 million Nearly 15 million

people (about 5% of the people (about 5% of the U.S. population) rely on U.S. population) rely on the waters of the basinthe waters of the basin

Drains 13,539 miDrains 13,539 mi²² , or , or 0.4 of 1% of the 0.4 of 1% of the continental U.S. land continental U.S. land areaarea

216 tributary streams216 tributary streams 4 states, 42 counties, 4 states, 42 counties,

838 municipalities 838 municipalities 25 Congressional 25 Congressional

DistrictsDistricts

The Delaware River Port Complex (including docking facilities in Pa., N.J., and Del.) is the largest freshwater

port in the world.

Delaware Water Gap Region

Longest River without a main stem dam East of the MississippiLongest River without a main stem dam East of the Mississippi

Basin ReservoirsBasin Reservoirs

Water Supply (only)Water Supply (only) Penn Forest, Wild Creek, Still Creek, Penn Forest, Wild Creek, Still Creek,

Ontelaunee, Green Lane, Geist, Edgar Ontelaunee, Green Lane, Geist, Edgar Hoopes, Union Lake, Lake Hopatcong, and Hoopes, Union Lake, Lake Hopatcong, and NockamixonNockamixon

48.1 BG48.1 BG NYC Water Supply and Flow NYC Water Supply and Flow

AugmentationAugmentation Neversink, Cannonsville, Pepacton Neversink, Cannonsville, Pepacton 281.9 BG281.9 BG

Photos Courtesy NYC DEP

Basin Reservoirs Basin Reservoirs (continued)(continued)

HydropowerHydropower Lake Wallenpaupack and Mongaup System (multiple Lake Wallenpaupack and Mongaup System (multiple

reservoirs)reservoirs) 45.1 BG45.1 BG

Multi-purpose and Flood Loss ReductionMulti-purpose and Flood Loss Reduction Prompton, Beltzville, Marsh Creek, Chambers Lake Prompton, Beltzville, Marsh Creek, Chambers Lake

(Hibernia Dam), Blue Marsh, Lake Galena, Francis (Hibernia Dam), Blue Marsh, Lake Galena, Francis E. Walter, Jadwin, Merrill CreekE. Walter, Jadwin, Merrill Creek

39.4 BG (WS, WSA) and 71.4 BG Flood Loss 39.4 BG (WS, WSA) and 71.4 BG Flood Loss ReductionReduction

414. BG WS/WSA/Power and 71.4 Flood 414. BG WS/WSA/Power and 71.4 Flood StorageStorage

What do we know?What do we know?

General agreement in model studies:General agreement in model studies: Temperature (C) +3 to +5 C Temperature (C) +3 to +5 C Precipitation (%) 0 to +20% Precipitation (%) 0 to +20% Runoff (%) -25% to +20% Runoff (%) -25% to +20% Less confidence in regional precipitation/runoff Less confidence in regional precipitation/runoff

predictions than temperaturepredictions than temperature Regardless of sign of precipitation change, Regardless of sign of precipitation change,

significant changes expected in: temperature, significant changes expected in: temperature, annual streamflow cycle, soil moisture, and annual streamflow cycle, soil moisture, and snowpack. Anticipate more hot days; more snowpack. Anticipate more hot days; more variabilityvariability

What do we expect?What do we expect?

Equal or Increased PrecipitationEqual or Increased Precipitation Greater Intensity of StormsGreater Intensity of Storms Increased TemperaturesIncreased Temperatures Potential for Extended DroughtsPotential for Extended Droughts Some Increase in Sea Level RiseSome Increase in Sea Level Rise

(0.5 m – 5 m by 2100)(0.5 m – 5 m by 2100)

UncertaintiesUncertainties

Will increased precipitation offset Will increased precipitation offset increased water loss due to increased water loss due to evapotranspiration?evapotranspiration?

Will more days for groundwater Will more days for groundwater recharge (unfrozen ground) balance recharge (unfrozen ground) balance soil moisture deficits predicted with soil moisture deficits predicted with higher temperatures?higher temperatures?

How will vegetative cover change?How will vegetative cover change?

Eastern Plateau, NY > 71 inches

Northern, NJ > 59 inches

Southern Eastern Piedmont, PA > 55 inches

Northern, DE > 44 inches

Southern, NJ > 27 inches

Pocono Mountains, PA > 65 inches

Southern, DE > 17 inches

18’

22’

1955 - 1996

Rutgers – Office of State Climatologist

Rutgers – Office of State Climatologist

Is it wet? Is it dry?Is it wet? Is it dry?

Is it wet? Is it dry?Is it wet? Is it dry?

Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/eax/climate/prcp_MAM08.gif

Drought of the 1960’sDrought of the 1960’s

Potential Impacts – Potential Impacts – Water SupplyWater Supply

Water SupplyWater Supply Prolonged DroughtsProlonged Droughts EvapotransporationEvapotransporation Loss of Snow PackLoss of Snow Pack Salinity – Sea Level RiseSalinity – Sea Level Rise InfrastructureInfrastructure All Coupled with Increasing DemandAll Coupled with Increasing Demand

Changes in Snowpack and Timing of Changes in Snowpack and Timing of SnowmeltSnowmelt

There will be less snow in the winter; this affects water supply for There will be less snow in the winter; this affects water supply for many who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water source. many who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water source. The timing of snowmelt may also change, prompting water resource The timing of snowmelt may also change, prompting water resource managers to change how water supply reservoirs are managed.managers to change how water supply reservoirs are managed.

AVG. MID-MONTH

LOCATION

J an 68Feb 68Mar 67Apr 61May 64J un 67J ul 72Aug 77Sep 79Oct 81Nov 80Dec 74

MONTH

Jeopardize water Jeopardize water supply due to supply due to increased salinity increased salinity levels. Both levels. Both surface water and surface water and groundwater groundwater withdrawals in the withdrawals in the estuary will be estuary will be affected. affected.

Increase river Increase river flows to push back flows to push back salt linesalt line

Increase costs for Increase costs for water purveyors – water purveyors – moving intake moving intake pipes upstream or pipes upstream or building building desalination desalination plants.plants.

Cannonsville Reservoir under normal conditions.

Cannonsville Reservoir (6.5% of capacity).

Cannonsville Reservoir is located on the West Branch of the Delaware River

NYC RESERVOIR STORAGE DECLINES TO RECORD LOWSNYC RESERVOIR STORAGE DECLINES TO RECORD LOWS

Need and Potential Need and Potential SolutionsSolutions

Need – More Upstream Storage and Need – More Upstream Storage and Reduced DemandReduced Demand

Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions Better reservoir managementBetter reservoir management New Reservoirs?New Reservoirs? New Main Stem Reservoirs?New Main Stem Reservoirs? Use old quarries for storage, Aquifer Storage Use old quarries for storage, Aquifer Storage

and Recovery, etc.and Recovery, etc. More System InterconnectionsMore System Interconnections Sea Barriers?Sea Barriers?

Potential ImpactsPotential Impacts

Water SupplyWater Supply Flooding Flooding

Increased PrecipitationIncreased Precipitation More Intense StormsMore Intense Storms More erosion and debrisMore erosion and debris Non-Tidal River – Old TownsNon-Tidal River – Old Towns Coastal SurgeCoastal Surge

Three Major FloodsThree Major Floods along the along the Main Stem Delaware River in Main Stem Delaware River in less than less than Two YearsTwo Years

September September 20042004

April 2005April 2005

June 2006June 2006

Need and Potential Need and Potential SolutionsSolutions

Need – Minimizing Flood DamageNeed – Minimizing Flood Damage Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions

Better Stormwater management - Infiltration,Better Stormwater management - Infiltration, Protection of Headwaters, Riverine BuffersProtection of Headwaters, Riverine Buffers Better Land use decisions, LIDBetter Land use decisions, LID Different Management of Existing ReservoirsDifferent Management of Existing Reservoirs Raised or New Reservoirs?Raised or New Reservoirs? New Mainstem Reservoir?New Mainstem Reservoir? Moving People from Harm’s WayMoving People from Harm’s Way Flood Warning/ Flood MappingFlood Warning/ Flood Mapping

Potential Impacts - WQPotential Impacts - WQ

Water SupplyWater Supply Flood InundationFlood Inundation Water Quality ImpactsWater Quality Impacts

TemperatureTemperature Dissolved OxygenDissolved Oxygen Suspended SedimentSuspended Sediment Lower Lower 77QQ10 10 for Wastewater for Wastewater

Assimilation/TMDLsAssimilation/TMDLs Potential Increase in Waterborne PathogensPotential Increase in Waterborne Pathogens

FECALCOLIFORM IS WAY

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DISSOLVED OXYGEN IS

↑FROM

2 PPM TO 7!

Needs and Potential Needs and Potential SolutionsSolutions

First –Modeling of Scenarios / First –Modeling of Scenarios / ImpactsImpacts

Issues –Issues – Existing Water Quality StandardsExisting Water Quality Standards Anti-Backsliding RulesAnti-Backsliding Rules How to Handle Natural Changes –How to Handle Natural Changes –

Tougher Regulation?Tougher Regulation? Should We adapt to CC-caused WQ Should We adapt to CC-caused WQ

Changes?Changes?

Potential Impacts - Potential Impacts - BiologicalBiological

Water SupplyWater Supply Flood InundationFlood Inundation Water Quality ImpactsWater Quality Impacts Biological ImpactsBiological Impacts

Wetlands Inundation/LossWetlands Inundation/Loss Change in Spring Thaw FlowsChange in Spring Thaw Flows Migratory PatternsMigratory Patterns Vegetation ChangesVegetation Changes Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species

Sea Level Rise - Impacts on the Delaware Sea Level Rise - Impacts on the Delaware EstuaryEstuary

Reduce the Reduce the amount of natural amount of natural wetlands and wetlands and marshes, which marshes, which act as a buffer, act as a buffer, helping reduce helping reduce non-point source non-point source pollution and pollution and flooding severity. flooding severity. Wetlands are also Wetlands are also an important an important habitat for habitat for wildlife, especially wildlife, especially migrating birds migrating birds and fish.and fish.

The animals, plants, The animals, plants, and forests of the and forests of the region may shift their region may shift their habitat and ranges habitat and ranges northward due to northward due to increased increased temperatures and temperatures and potential decrease in potential decrease in water.water.

Biodiversity among Biodiversity among species may also species may also decrease, which can decrease, which can also lead to an also lead to an increase in invasive increase in invasive species. species.

American shad

Already seen: Already seen: earlier bird migration and egg laying, earlier bird migration and egg laying, earlier peak discharges in snow-fed earlier peak discharges in snow-fed rivers, rivers, earlier timing of spring blooms, and earlier timing of spring blooms, and changes in the range and timing of fish changes in the range and timing of fish migrations in rivers (IPCC 2007)migrations in rivers (IPCC 2007)

Photo courtesy of USFWS

Next StepsNext Steps Prepare for Potential EffectsPrepare for Potential Effects

Assess Future Demand and Develop Assess Future Demand and Develop Conservation StrategyConservation Strategy

Modify/Create Models with Uncertainty Modify/Create Models with Uncertainty Factors Factors (e.g. drought of record)(e.g. drought of record)

Develop Strategic Plans for Droughts, Develop Strategic Plans for Droughts, Floods, Sea Level RiseFloods, Sea Level Rise

Adaptation (Adaptation (vsvs Fighting Change) Fighting Change) e.g. –Impact of change in forest species, e.g. –Impact of change in forest species,

coldwater to warmwater fisherycoldwater to warmwater fishery

Will New Reservoirs be Will New Reservoirs be Needed or Will Many Small Needed or Will Many Small

Changes Be Enough?Changes Be Enough? Need for New Reservoirs and Flood Need for New Reservoirs and Flood

Mitigation Dams?Mitigation Dams?oror

Combination of Combination of Stormwater InfiltrationStormwater Infiltration Protection of HeadwatersProtection of Headwaters Stream Corridor ProtectionStream Corridor Protection Low Impact DevelopmentLow Impact Development Use of Old QuarriesUse of Old Quarries Regional PlanningRegional Planning Floodplain RegulationFloodplain Regulation

Management ConflictsManagement Conflicts

Need To Manage For Even Greater Need To Manage For Even Greater ExtremesExtremes

““Stationarity is Dead” – Need for Stationarity is Dead” – Need for Uncertainty FactorUncertainty Factor

Water Managers like to be Conservative –Water Managers like to be Conservative – Do not gamble with waterDo not gamble with water

Need More Water Storage for Supply, Need More Water Storage for Supply, Instream Flows, Salinity Repulsion and Instream Flows, Salinity Repulsion and Voids for Flood MitigationVoids for Flood Mitigation

NEEDSNEEDS

Localized, Downscaled Climate Change Localized, Downscaled Climate Change ModelsModels

Uncertainty Factors for Droughts and FloodsUncertainty Factors for Droughts and Floods Linking Models – Linking Models –

CC/Hydrologic/Hydrodynamic/Water QualityCC/Hydrologic/Hydrodynamic/Water Quality Evaluation of Alternatives EffectivenessEvaluation of Alternatives Effectiveness

Demand ReductionDemand Reduction Small, Local Solutions to Water ManagementSmall, Local Solutions to Water Management

Evaluation of Water Quality ImplicationsEvaluation of Water Quality Implications

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Time for Time for ACTION ACTION !!!!

Integrated Water Management in the Delaware River Basinwww.DRBC.net