Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for the Sava ... · Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for the Sava River Basin ›Task 3: Development of the hydrologic model and

WATER-FOOD-ENERGY-ECOSYSTEMS NEXUS ASSESSMENT IN THE SAVA RIVER BASIN

Zagreb, 6 March 2014

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for the Sava River Basin:for the Sava River Basin:

Climate Change Predictions Climate Change Predictions for the Sava River Basinfor the Sava River Basin

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN1

for the Sava River Basinfor the Sava River Basin

Jasna Plavsic

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for the Sava River Basin

› Task 3: Development of the hydrologic model and simulations with future climate scenarios

› Scope of work:› Model development

› define an appropriate model structure

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN2

› define an appropriate model structure

› collect necessary data

› perform model calibration and verification

› Characterisation of future hydrologic regime

› perform hydrologic simulations with climate scenarios for 2011-2040 and 2041-2070

Hydrologic Model Development

› Sava River Basin: ~ 95,000 km2

› No previous models of the whole basin

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN3

Hydrologic Model Development

› Choice of the model: HEC-HMS

› used initially by USACE as a link to the hydraulic model developed for ISRBC

› easily obtainable by future

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN4

› easily obtainable by future users on the SRB (free of charge)

› Main pros and cons› moderate data requirements

(depending on calculation methods)

› not completely suitable for continuous simulation

Data Requirements

› Input data› daily precipitation time series

› daily temperature time series

› monthly potential evapotranspiration (seasonal distribution)

› Hydrologic data for calibration and verification

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN5

› daily flows time series

› Geographic data› sub-basin areas

› met station elevations

› elevation distribution within the basin (elevation bands)

Data Collection

› Data collection by riparian experts› lasted for 5 months (from 5 June to 24 October 2012)

› delivered:› hydrologic data at selected stations and in selected periods – daily flow rates

› precipitation and air temperature data at selected meteo station – daily data

› potential evapotranspiration data at selected stations – monthly data› potential evapotranspiration data at selected stations – monthly data

› basic information on water control facilities

› Precipitation and temperature data from Montenegro› additional data needed for the Drina Basin model

› obtained via ISRBC

› made available in February 2013

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN6

Model setup and data availability

› Choice of sub-basins, calibration and verification periods, modelling methods and data collection is an iterative process

› not all relevant data is readily available

› short calibration and verification periods

select

time period

select

subbasins

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN7

› short calibration and verification periods due to poor data availability

› Calibration 1979-1984

› Verification 1969-1974select

modelling

method

ask for

data

Hydro and meteostations

› Input Data› Precipitation stations (50)

› Temperature stations (27)

› Hydrologic stations (35)

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN8

Record extension

› Filling gaps and extending P and T records

› Records reconstructed using a regional climate model with 1 km horizontal resolution

› Poorer results for precipitation in

2940

50

60

70

Num

ber

of st

atio

ns

1961-1990

Incomplete

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN9

› Poorer results for precipitation in Montenegro (improper boundary conditions)

1930

23

16 13

0

10

20

30

Num

ber

of st

atio

ns

Incomplete record

Complete record

Sub-basin division

› Basin subdivision with respect to daily time step and to data availability and quality

› sub-basin sizes 2000-5000 km2

› 14 major sub-basins modelled

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN10

› 14 major sub-basins modelled separately

› 44 sub-basins in total

› 35 sub-basins controlled by hydrologic stations

Calibration and validation Mean monthly flows

0

500

1000

Flo

w (

m3

/s)

Sava @ Zagreb

simulation observed

4000Sava @ Slavonski Brod

0

500

1000Sava @ Zagreb

simulation observed

4000Sava @ Slavonski Brod

0

2000

Flo

w (

m3

/s)

0

2500

5000

lis 1979 lis 1980 lis 1981 lis 1982 lis 1983 lis 1984

Flo

w (

m3

/s)

Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica

0

2000

0

2500

5000

lis 1969 lis 1970 lis 1971 lis 1972 lis 1973 lis 1974

Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica

Model performance: bias (error in mean annual flow)

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN12

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

PBIAS

calibration

verification

ext. record

Model performance: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

NSE for m

onth

ly data

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN13

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

NSE for m

onth

ly data

calibration

verification

ext. record

Model application with future climate: Methodology

› Hydrologic simulations of future regime using future climate scenarios as input

› Baseline: 1961-1990

› Near future: 2011-2040

GCM/RCMs

Climate scenarios

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN14

› Distant future: 2041-2070

Hydrologic model

Climate scenarios (future P, T, PET)

Hydrologic projections

Model application with future climate: Methodology

› Change in hydrologic regime is evaluated by comparing simulated future regime against simulations with baseline climate

› Relative change evaluated rather than the absolute values

%100⋅− BASEFUT

Q

QQ

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN15

› annual change (ANN)

› winter: December, January and February (DJF)

› spring: March, April and May (MAM)

› summer: June, July and August (JJA)

› autumn: September, October and November (SON)

%100⋅

BASEQ

Climate scenarios

› Ensemble of 5 GCM/RCM outputs for A1B IPCC/SRES scenario

Climate model GCM RCM

CM1 ECHAM5r3 RACMO

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN16

CM1 ECHAM5r3 RACMO

CM2 ECHAM5r3 REMO

CM3 HadCM3Q0 CLM

CM4 HadCM3Q0 HadRM3Q0

CM5 ECHAM5r3 RegCM3

Temperature scenarios

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

temperatu

re change (deg C) CM1

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

temperatu

re change (deg C) CM2

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

temperatu

re change (deg C) CM3

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

temperatu

re change (deg C) Ensemble median

0

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

temperatu

re change (deg C)

0

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

temperatu

re change (deg C)

0

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

temperatu

re change (deg C)

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

temperatu

re change (deg C) CM4

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

temperatu

re change (deg C) CM5

Precipitation scenarios

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

precipitation change

CM1

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

precipitation change

CM2

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

precipitation change

CM3

-50%

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

2011-2040 2041-2070

-50%

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

2011-2040 2041-2070

-50%

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

2011-2040 2041-2070

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

2011-2040 2041-2070

precipitation change

CM4

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%D

JF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

2011-2040 2041-2070

precipitation change

CM5

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

DJF

MAM

JJA

SO

N

AN

N

2011-2040 2041-2070precipitation change

Ensemble median

Scenarios for potential evapotranspiration

› Based on temperature scenarios and the Hargreaves equation for PET

)8.17(0023.05.0

+= TCTDRPET a

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN19

PET_1 with baseline CM

temperatures

PET_2 with future CM

temperatures

Relative change c = PET_2/PET_1

PET_0 used in model

calibration

Future PET = c * PET_0

Simulations with future climate scenarios

› Change in ensemble median values of mean seasonal and annual runoff, averaged over 50 locations in the basin

30%

40%

50%

change in m

ean flow (%

)

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN

20

11,0%

-9,0%-5,1%

0,4% -1,4%

13,0%

-11,4%-15,1%

-3,3%-4,7%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN

2011-2040 2041-2070

change in m

ean flow (%

)

error bars indicate range of changes across the locations

Simulations with future climate scenarios

› Change in mean seasonal runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2011-2040 DJF

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2041-2070 DJF

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN21

scenarios Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2011-2040 MAM

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2041-2070 MAM

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

Simulations with future climate scenarios

› Change in mean seasonal runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2011-2040 JJA

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2041-2070 JJA

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN22

scenarios

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2011-2040 SON

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2041-2070 SON

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

Simulations with future climate scenarios

› Change in mean annual runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2041-2070 ANN

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

) 2011-2040 ANN

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN23

scenarios

Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

)

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5Sav

a @

Čat

ež

Sav

a @

Zag

reb

Kupa

mouth

Sav

a @

Crn

ac

Una

mouth

Sav

a @

Mač

kova

c

Vrb

as m

outh

Sav

a @

Sla

v. B

rod

Bosn

a m

outh

Sav

a @

Župan

ja

Drina

mouth

Sav

a @

S. M

itro

vica

Sav

a @

Beo

gra

d

change in m

ean flow (%

)

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5

Sources of uncertainty

› Definition of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (unpredictability of future economic and societal development)

› Climate model structural uncertainty (different GCMs produce different projections for the same emission scenario)

› Downscaling and bias correction of GCM outputs

› Hydrological model structure and parameters uncertainty

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN24

› Hydrological model structure and parameters uncertainty

› Record extension

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R. (1987) Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces, Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces,

Wiley, New York, p. 424.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

lis 1961 lis 1966 lis 1971 lis 1976 lis 1981 lis 1986 lis 1991

Flow

(m

3/s

)

Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica

simulation

observed

WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN25