Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for …...Ppt0000050 [Read-Only] Author Janja Created Date 6/10/2013 3:16:25 PM ...

5TH JUNE 2013WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR SAVA RIVER

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3rd Consultation Workshop on the "Adaption Measures to the Possible Climate Change in the Sava River Basin

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for Sava River Basin

David Heywood – Team Leader COWI AS

5TH JUNE 2013WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR SAVA RIVER

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Why WATCAP?• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has

viewed South East Europe (SEE) region as particularly sensitive to climate change.

• European Commission (EC) highlighted the SEE countries below the 40o latitude at considerable risk and need to adapt to climate change.

• Governments of SEE states have acknowledged that impacts from climate change in the region are projected to get worse.

5TH JUNE 2013WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR SAVA RIVER

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WATCAP Objectives

• To enhance climate resilience of selected water sector investments;

• To stimulate debate among key stakeholders in the water resources sector in SEE on climate-related impacts and adaptation strategies;

• To inform on approaches to adapt water resources management, planning and operations to the forecasted impact of climate change.

5TH JUNE 2013WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR SAVA RIVER

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Why Sava Basin for WATCAP?• SRB is the first of these basins in South-Eastern Europe selected

for this work. • SRB is of a high priority since regional climate modelling suggests

an overall reduction of around 15% to 30% in mean annual runoff by the middle of this century, which could be challenging for all investments undertaken in the basin.

5TH JUNE 2013WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR SAVA RIVER

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Outline of the Sava River Basin (SRB)

SOURCE: ISRBC 2009

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SRB Relief

SOURCE: ISRBC 2009

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SRB Precipitation and Evaporation

SOURCE: ISRBC 2009 SOURCE: ISRBC 2009

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How will WATCAP be achieved?

Five Tasks:

1.Historic Climate Data Analysis (Task 1)

2.Future Climate Data Analysis (Task 2)

3.Hydrologic Model including the provision of hydrologic data and Scenario

Modelling (Task 3)

4.Guidance Notes (Task 4)

5.Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP Main Report) (Task 5)

International Sava River Basin Commission

Slovenia SerbiaBosnia and HerzegovinaCroatia

Hydrologic Trends Meteorological Trends

Future Trends From

RCM and GCMsMirjam Vujadinovic

(WB contract)

Simulated Future Scenarios based on trends and GCMs

Hydrologic Model

(Started by the USACE for Flood study)

(Adapted by COWI – Belgrade University for use in this study)

Agriculture HydropowerFlood Control Navigation

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin (WATCAP)

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Activity Status

Hydrologic simulation through the model to provide

scenario development for cross-sector guidance notes

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WATCAP funding sources• Water Partnership Program (WPP)

• Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD)

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COWI Contracts for WATCAP• 1st Contract for Model development,

commenced 12th March until 30th November 2012.

• 2nd Contract for finalisation of Model development and preparation of WATCAP Report commenced 20th November 2012 and will run until 31st July 2013.

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Sava Basin Hydrologic Model (Task 3)• Model development

• define model structure according to the requirements

• collect necessary data

• model calibration and verification

• Creation of forecast scenarios

• create scenarios for 2020, 2030, and 2050 at gauging stations based on the results of the Exeter study and perform forecast simulations

5TH JUNE 2013WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR SAVA RIVER

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Outline of the Sava River Basin (SRB)

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Data Collection for Model• TOR developed in March 2012 for World Bank to hire five

Riparian Experts (Slovenia, Croatia, BiH (1 FBiH and 1 RS, Serbia).

• Five riparian experts hired directly by the World Bank in late March/April 2012.

• Kick off meeting between ISRBC, COWI and Riparian Experts in Zagreb 5th June 2012.

• Data acquisition took far longer than anticipated. Data was onlyobtained in October 2012.

• ISRBC provided requested data on 2nd July

7TH JUNE 2013

Data Collection

• Data available from WATCAP Task 1 (trend analysis)• total of 33 meteorological (meteo) and 38 hydrologic stations (flows,

precipitation, temperatures, observed Evaporation/calculated Potential. Evapo-transpiration (PET), humidity; daily data)

• Data from ISRBC• GeoHMS input and output from the USACE model, including a raw digital

elevation model (DEM) and vectorized river network• Sub-basin division made by USACE had to be changed

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Data Collection� Data collection by riparian experts

• lasted for 5 months (from 5 June to 24 October 2012)

• delivered:

• hydrologic data at selected stations and in selected periods – daily flow rates

• precipitation and air temperature data at selected meteo station – daily data

• potential evapotranspiration data at selected stations – monthly data

• basic information on water control facilities

� Precipitation and temperature data from Montenegro

• additional data needed for the Drina Basin model

• obtained via ISRBC

• only made available in February 2013

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Data Collection

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0

Number of stations

N u m b e r o f s ta t io n s in d a ta b a s e

D is c h a rg e

P r e c ip it a t io n

T e m p e ra tu re

• MS Access database: 3,286,698 records

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Further Steps� Simulations with climate scenarios:

• verification of model performance with future climate data for the 1961-

1990 period

• simulations with future climate data for the 2011-2040 and 2041-2070

periods

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Further Steps� Guidance Notes under preparation

� WATCAP report under preparation

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Lessons Learned

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� An Integrated Water Resources Management approach

supports adaptation.

� Sharing knowledge, experience and information is very

important.

� Ensuring that good quality data is readily available is

absolutely essential.

� Transboundary cooperation is important.

7TH JUNE 2013

Thank you for your attention!

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