WAR Bradford VTS Group A presentation 9th January 2007.

WARWARBradford VTS

Group A presentation

9th January 2007

ProgramProgram

2 pm Introduction

2.15 pm What is War?

2.45 pm Images of War and Impact on Health

3.15 pm Break

3.30 pm group case discussion

4.15 pm wrap up & evaluation

Aims & ObjectivesAims & Objectives

• What kind of wars are there?

• What is war?

• Why wars?

• Where is war at the moment?

• Is the world getting a better place?

What kind of wars are there?What kind of wars are there?can be divided into cause and environment

Cause

• Extortionate• Agressive• Colonial• National liberation• Religious• Dynastic• Trade• Revolutionary• Guerrilla• Civil

Environment

• Arctic warfare• Desert warfare • Jungle warfare • Mobile warfare • Naval warfare• Sub-aquatic warfare • Mountain warfare • Urban warfare • Air warfare • Space warfare • Electronic warfare • Border warfare • Mine warfare

What is war?What is war?

War

A state of open, armed, often prolonged conflict carried on between nations, states, or parties,

the period of such conflict and the techniques and procedures of war.

(Encyclopedia britannica)

Armed conflict

An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility which concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths.

(Armed Conflict 1989–2000’, Journal of Peace Research 38(5): 629–644)

Unlimited amount of theories trying to explain this

Whatever you think, war seems to be a successful way of dealing with conflict

Ask one of these guys...

Why war?Why war?

Historical theories

A. J. P. Taylor

Wars are like traffic accidents

There are some conditions and situations that make them more likely, but there can be no system for predicting where and when each one will occur.

Psychological theoriesPsychological theories

John Bowlby

Human beings, especially men, are inherently violent. While this violence is repressed in normal society, it needs the occasional outlet provided by war.

Sigmund Freud

Peace does not really exist. Periods that are seen as peaceful are actually periods of preparation for a later war or when war is suppressed by a state of great power, such as the Pax Britannica.

Psychological theoriesPsychological theories

Konrad Lorenz

War as an extension of animal behaviour, such as territoriality and competition. However, while war has a natural cause, the development of technology has accelerated human destructiveness to a level that is irrational and damaging to the species. We have similar instincts to that of a chimpanzee but overwhelmingly more power.

George Orwell

The state of constant war is being used as one of many ways to distract people. War inspires fear and hate among the people of a nation, and gives them a "legitimate" enemy upon whom they can focus this fear and hate. Thus the people are prevented from seeing that their true enemy is in fact their own repressive government. By this theory war is another “opiate of the masses" by which a state controls its people and prevents revolution.

Anthropological theoriesAnthropological theories

Ashley Montagu

There are no links between various forms of violence. Almost all wars are begun not by popular pressure but by the whims of leaders. These leaders also work to maintain a system of ideological justifications for war.

Sociological theoriesSociological theories

Hans-Ulrich Wehler

War as the product of domestic conditions, with only the target of aggression being determined by international realities.

Carl von Clausewitz

Decisions of statesmen and the geopolitical situation that leads to war.

Demographic theroriesDemographic therories

Thomas Malthus

Wars are caused by expanding populations and limited resources. Populations always increase until they are limited by war, disease, or famine.

Demographic theoriesDemographic theories

Jack Goldstone

„Youth bulge“ – dominates US foreign policy.

Gunnar Heinsohn

Proposed the theory in its most generalized form, a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the "fighting age" cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age.

It will follow periods with average birth rates as high as 4-8 children per woman with a 15-29 year delay. If an average birth rate of 2,1 represents a situation of in which the son will replace the father, the daughter the mother, 4-8 children per mother imply 2-4 sons. Consequently, one father has to leave not 1, but 2 to 4 social positions to give all his sons a perspective for life, which is usually hard to achieve. Since respectable positions cannot be increased at the same speed as food, textbooks and vaccines, many "angry young men" find themselves in a situation that tends to escalate their adolescent anger into violence.

Demographic theoriesDemographic theoriesThese young man are:(1) demographically superfluous,(2) might be out of work or stuck in a mean job, and(3) often have no access to a legal sex life before a career can earn them enough to provide for a family.

The combination of these stress factors according to Heinsohn usually heads for six different exits:(1) Emigration ("non violent colonization")(2) Violent Crime(3) Rebellion or putsch(4) Civil war and/or revolution(5) Genocide (to take over the positions of the slaughtered)(6) Conquest (violent colonization, frequently including genocide abroad).

Religions and ideologies are seen as secondary factors that are being used to legitimate violence, but will not lead to violence by itself if no youth bulge is present. Consequently, youth bulge theorists see both past "Christianist" european colonialism / imperialism and today´s "Islamist" civil unrest / terrorism as results of high birth rates producing youth bulges.Youth Bulge theory has been subjected to statistical analysis by the World Bank. It has been criticized for promoting racial, gender and age discrimination.

Rationalist theoriesRationalist theories

Geoffrey Blainey

Both sides to a potential war are rational, which is to say that each side wants to get the best possible outcome for itself for the least possible loss of life and property to its own side.

Economic theoriesEconomic theories

War can be seen as an outgrowth of economic competition in a chaotic and competitive international system. In this view wars begin as a pursuit of new markets, of natural resources, and of wealth.

Marxist theoriesMarxist theoriesWar grows out of the class war. It sees wars as imperial ventures to enhance the power of the ruling class and divide the proletariat of the world by pitting them against each other for contrived ideals such as nationalism or religion. Wars are a natural outgrowth of the free market and class system, and will not disappear until a world revolution occurs.

Political science theoriesPolitical science theories

Immanuel Kant

Power transition theory - distributes the world into a hierarchy and explains major wars as part of a cycle of hegemons being destabilized by a great power which does not suppor the hegemons control.

Democratic peace theory

theory and related empirical research in international relations, political science, and philosophy which holds that democracies never or almost never go to war with one another.

Democratic statesDemocratic states

Any thoughts?Any thoughts?

Refugees – some numbersRefugees – some numbers

UNHCR: dropping numbers of refugees worldwide.

1993: 17.8 million, 2006: 8.4 million

ORIGIN OF MAJOR REFUGEE POPULATIONS – 1 JAN 2006[Ten largest groups]

Origin Main Countries of Asylum Total1

Afghanistan Pakistan / Iran / Germany / Netherlands / UK 1,908,1002

Sudan Chad / Uganda / Kenya / Ethiopia / Central African Rep. 693,300

Burundi Tanzania / DR Congo / Rwanda / South Africa / Zambia 438,700

DR Congo Tanzania / Zambia / Congo / Rwanda / Uganda 430,600

Somalia Kenya / Yemen / UK / USA / Ethiopia 394,800

Viet Nam China / Germany / USA / France / Switzerland 358,200

Palestinians Saudi Arabia / Egypt / Iraq / Libya / Algeria 349,7003

Iraq Iran / Germany / Netherlands / Syria / UK 262,100

Azerbaijan Armenia / Germany / USA / Netherlands / France 233,700

Liberia Sierra Leone / Guinea / Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana / USA 231,100

Refugees – some more numbersRefugees – some more numbers

MAJOR REFUGEE ARRIVALS DURING 2005[Ten largest movements]

Origin Main Countries of Asylum Total

Togo Benin / Ghana 39,100

Sudan Chad / Uganda 34,500

DR Congo Uganda / Rwanda / Burundi 15,600

Somalia Yemen 13,600

Central African Rep. Chad 11,500

Iraq Syria 10,500

Burundi Rwanda / Tanzania / Uganda 6,100

Bhutan Nepal 1,500

Rwanda Uganda 1,500

Russian Federation Azerbaijan 500

UNHCR 2006

Asylum seekers – some numbersAsylum seekers – some numbers

UNHCR 2006

NEW ASYLUM APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED IN SELECTED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES 1

[in 2005]

Country of Asylum Asylum applications Main Countries of Origin

France 49,700 Haiti / Serbia & Montenegro / Turkey / Russian Fed. / DR Congo

United States2 39,200 China / Haiti / Colombia / El Salvador / Mexico

United Kingdom 30,500 Iran / Pakistan / Somalia / Eritrea / Afghanistan

Germany 28,900 Serbia & Montenegro / Turkey / Iraq / Russian Fed. / Viet Nam

Austria 22,500 Serbia & Montenegro / Russian Fed. / India / Moldova / Turkey

Canada 20,800 Mexico / China / Colombia / Sri Lanka / India

Sweden 17,500 Serbia & Montenegro / Iraq / Russian Fed. / Stateless people / Bulgaria

Belgium 16,000 Russian Fed. / DR Congo / Serbia & Montenegro / Iraq / Slovakia

Netherlands 12,300 Iraq / Somalia / Afghanistan / Iran / Burundi

Switzerland 10,100 Serbia & Montenegro / Turkey / Somalia / Iraq / Bulgaria

Long term pictureLong term pictureAsylum applications in 36 industrialised countries

Asylum applicants 2000 - 2004Asylum applicants 2000 - 2004

Asylum applicants 2001 - 2004Asylum applicants 2001 - 2004

Countries of Origin 2003 - 2004Countries of Origin 2003 - 2004

Countries of Origin (UK) 2003 - 2004Countries of Origin (UK) 2003 - 2004

Where is war?Where is war?

Types of conflictTypes of conflict

War or ConflictWar or Conflict

Types of ConflictsTypes of Conflicts

PartiesParties

IntesityIntesity

Secondary SupportSecondary Support

Conflict zonesConflict zones

Democratic statesDemocratic states

IncompatibilityIncompatibility

Is the world getting better or worse?Is the world getting better or worse?

• Depends whom you ask

• Uppsala says yes

• Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research says no

• Center for Strategic & International Studies (MIT) says don´t know

• UNHCR hopes it gets better.

• Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, pretends to know but will not tell you if you do not pay...

... so I guess you have to make up your own mind.