Investment in the Senior Living and Long Term Care Property Sector Exploration of Risk and Return The World Turned Upside Down
Investment in the Senior Living and
Long Term Care Property Sector
Exploration of Risk and Return
The World Turned Upside Down
Funded by the
Real Estate Research Institute 2007 - 2008
o• Elaine Worzala, Professor and Director, Center for
Real Estate Development, Clemson University
o
• Judy Karofsky, President, Real Estate Insites, LLC, Madison, WI
o• Jeffrey A. Davis, Chairman, Cambridge Realty
Capital Companies, Chicago, IL
The World Turned Upside Down
Demographics
We are all getting older
We are living longer
Increasing demand for
assisted living
The World Turned Upside Down
U.S. Population Over 65 U.S. Census Bureau
The World Turned Upside Down
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S
. P
op
ula
tio
n (
in t
ho
us
an
ds)
65-74 75-84 85+
Growth of Population Over 65
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
% o
f T
ota
l U
.S. P
op
ula
tio
n
65+ 85+
The World Turned Upside Down
Basic Human Needs
The World Turned Upside Down
Housing
Personalized supportive services
Health Care
Increasing demand
for assisted living
Legal/Societal Changes
The World Turned Upside Down
Medicare
Women in the
workforce
Divorce rates
Smaller family size
Job mobility
Increased demand for
assisted living
Economic DevelopmentThe World Turned Upside Down
Recruitment
Retention
Increased demand for
assisted living
Almost 4,000,000 Seniors In professionally managed properties NIC
The World Turned Upside Down
19%
18%
17%
46%
Independent Living Units CCRC's Assisted Living Units Nursing Home Beds
Variance in Cash Flow = Risk
Location Physical Attributes
Legal/
Political
Issues
DynamicsBusiness
Model
Variance in Cash
Flow
The World Turned Upside Down
Variance in Cash Flow = Risk
Proactive management
Housing alternatives
Variance in cash flow
Services and health care
The World Turned Upside Down
Dynamics
Decision
Medical
professionals
CaregiversAdult
children
Residents
The World Turned Upside Down
Business Model
Labor cost
containment
and mitigation of
occupancy risk
High-quality,
professional
staff and management
The World Turned Upside Down
2006
Median Occupancy Rates State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
All Communities
CCRC
Assisted Living
Independent Living
92.9%
94.0%
90.7%
93.8%
2007
Median Occupancy Rates State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
All Communities
CCRC
Assisted with Alzheimer's
Assisted without Alzheimer's
Independent and Assisted
Independent Living Only
94.4%
90.7%
94.4%
93.3%
95.7%
95.0%
2008
Median Occupancy Rates State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
All Communities
CCRC
Assisted with Alzheimer's
Assisted without Alzheimer's
Independent and Assisted
Independent Living Only
92.6%
93.6%
92.0%
90.6%
93.8%
93.1%
2007 - 2008
Median Occupancy Rates State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
Assisted with
Alzheimer's
Assisted
without
Alzheimer's
Independent
and Assisted
Independent
Living Only
CCRC All
Communities
94.4%
93.3%
95.7%
95.0%
90.7%
94.4%
92.0%
90.6%
93.8%
93.1%
93.6%
92.6%
2007 2008
Minneapolis-St. Paul Bloomington, MN-WI MSA
Occupancy Rates NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
All Stabilized Assisted Living Properties
Median
Average
Kansas City, Minneapolis, St. Louis MSAs
Occupancy Rates NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
All Stabilized Assisted Living Properties
Median
Average
Assisted Living
National Occupancy Rates NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
Boston Minneapolis Houston Seattle Detroit
94.0% 93.7%93.1%
86.2%
83.7%
4th Quarter 2008
Turnover Rates State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
33.9%31.1% 31.8%
55.9%54.2% 55.1%
2006 2007 2008
Independent Living Assisted Living
Typical Length of Stay State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
CCRC
Independent Living
All Assisted Living
Assisted Living with Alzheimer's
77
38
21
17
Months
Median Occupancy Rates State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
2 to 10 Years Old 10 to 25 Years More than 25 Years
Occupancy vs. AgeAssisted Living
2007 2008
Overall Occupancy Decline NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
Upper Quartile Lower Quartile
100.0%
88.2%
98.0%
85.3%
Assisted Living Year End
4Q2007 4Q2008
Median Total Revenue State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2006 2007 2008
$5
7,6
14
$3
8,4
02
$3
8,6
11
Assisted with Alzheimers
Independent and Assisted
Assisted without Alzheimer's
Median Total Revenue State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Assisted with Alzheimers
Independent and Assisted
Assisted without Alzheimer's
$49,576
$34,911$32,212
$55,545
$37,206$34,022
$57,614
$38,402 $38,611
2006 2007 2008
Average Monthly Revenue per Occupied Unit NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
$2,700
$2,800
$2,900
$3,000
$3,100
$3,200
$3,300
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
$2,890
$3,038 $3,038
$3,091
$3,024
$3,061
$3,109
$3,183
$3,232
MinneapolisAll Assisted Living Properties
Average Unit Occupancy by Revenue per Occupied Unit NIC Map
The World Turned Upside Down
0.88
0.89
0.9
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
Up to $2,470 $2,470 to $2,741
$2,741 to $3,141
$3,141 to $3,900
$3,900 plus
90.7%
93.0%
94.5% 94.7%
92.1%
Minneapolis Metro Assisted Living4th Quarter 2008
Median Net Operating Income Per Occupied Unit State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2006 2007 2008
$13,423
$19,777
$15,956
$9,058
$11,795
$13,143
$11,187$10,609
$12,491 Assisted Living with Alzheimer's
Assisted Living without Alzheimer's
Independent and Assisted
Median Net Operating Income Per Occupied Unit State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
Assisted Living with Alzheimer's
Assisted Living without Alzheimer's
Independent and Assisted
$13,423
$9,058
$11,187
$19,777
$11,795
$10,609
$15,956
$13,143
$12,491
2006 2007 2008
Net Operating Income Per Resident per Day State of Seniors Housing
The World Turned Upside Down
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2 to 10 Years Old 10 to 25 Years More than 25 Years
$42.15
$34.01
$28.84
$45.29
$30.79
$28.32
NOI vs. AgeAssisted Living
2207 2008
Alternative Risk Ratings
Real Estate Investment Mean “Risk”
Net lease properties 2.04
Warehouse market
Regional mall
Apartment market
Power retail center
Diversified public real estate investment trusts
Diversified private real estate investment trusts
Age restricted apartments (over 55)
Central business district offices
Strip mall
Flexible R&D
Private commingled real estate funds
Suburban offices
Senior housing specialized REIT’s
Real estate mortgage investment conduits
Senior housing independent living
Full service lodging
Licensed assisted living facility (stand alone)
Health care operating companies
Continuing care retirement communities
Extended stay lodging
Hybrid independent living and assisted living facilities
Skilled nursing facilities (primarily long-term care_
Skilled nursing facilities (subacute/short-term rehab)
Licensed Alzheimer’s/dementia facility 4.25
The World Turned Upside Down
ReviewThe World Turned Upside Down
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050U.S
. P
op
ula
tio
n (
in t
ho
us
an
ds)
65-74 75-84 85+
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
% o
f T
ota
l U
.S. P
op
ula
tio
n
65+ 85+
Labor cost
containment
and mitigation of
occupancy risk
High-quality,
professional
staff and management
Housing
It’s about the Housing
Dems power stimulus bill through Congress
Passage of $787 billion legislation hands Obama a critical political victory
The World Turned Upside Down
Housing
A Gloomy Outlook for
Home Sales’ Big Season
Dane County home
sales continue to slip
Sales of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops NAR
The World Turned Upside Down
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
45.9%
31.1%
1990-2008 Growth Rates
Sales of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops NAR
The World Turned Upside Down
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
-7.6% -7.8%
2000-2008 Growth Rates
Sales of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops NAR
The World Turned Upside Down
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
-14.9%
-19.2%
2007-2008 “Growth” Rates
Sales of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops NAR
The World Turned Upside Down
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
45.9%
31.1%
1990-2008 Growth Rates
Unit Mix
Madison MSA NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
64%
25%
11%
1,380 Assisted Living Units
Efficiencies
One bedroom
Two bedroom
Unit Mix
Milwaukee MSA NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
54%
32%
7%
3,826 Assisted Living Units
Efficiencies
One bedroom
Two bedroom
Unit Mix NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
64%
25%
11%
Madison
Efficiencies One bedroom Two bedroom
54%
32%
7%
Efficiencies One bedroom Two bedroom
Milwaukee
Segment Opening Year
Madison MSA NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
4%17%
46%
33%
1,291 Assisted Living Units
1970's
1980's
1990's
Since 2000
Segment Opening Year
Milwaukee MSA NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
8%3%
20%
39%
29%
3,719 Assisted Living Units
1960's
1970's
1980's
1990's
Since 2000
Segment Opening Year NIC MAP
The World Turned Upside Down
8%3%
20%
39%
29%
1960's
1970's
1980's
1990's
Since 2000
Milwaukee
4%
17%
46%
33%1970's
1980's
1990's
Since 2000
Madison
Alternative Risk Ratings
Real Estate Investment Mean “Risk”
Net lease properties 2.04
Warehouse market
Regional mall
Apartment market
Power retail center
Diversified public real estate investment trusts
Diversified private real estate investment trusts
Age restricted apartments (over 55)
Central business district offices
Strip mall
Flexible R&D
Private commingled real estate funds
Suburban offices
Senior housing specialized REIT’s
Real estate mortgage investment conduits
Senior housing independent living
Full service lodging
Licensed assisted living facility (stand alone)
Health care operating companies
Continuing care retirement communities
Extended stay lodging
Hybrid independent living and assisted living facilities
Skilled nursing facilities (primarily long-term care_
Skilled nursing facilities (subacute/short-term rehab)
Licensed Alzheimer’s/dementia facility 4.25
The World Turned Upside Down
New View?
Real Estate Investment Mean “Risk”
Licensed Alzheimer’s/dementia facility 2.04
Skilled nursing facilities (subacute/short-term rehab)
Skilled nursing facilities (primarily long-term care)
Hybrid independent living and assisted living facilities
Extended stay lodging
Continuing care retirement communities
Health care operating companies
Licensed assisted living facility (stand alone)
Full service lodging
Senior housing independent living
Real estate investment mortgage conduits
Senior housing specialized REIT’s
Suburban offices
Private commingled real estate funds
Flexible R&D
Strip mall
Central business district offices
Age restricted apartments (over 55)
Diversified private real estate investment trusts
Diversified public real estate investment trusts
Power retail center
Apartment market
Regional mall
Warehouse market
Net lease properties 4.25
The World Turned Upside Down