Mapping and Modeling Agriculture Drought Hazard Climate Stress Prof. Wadid ERIAN Prof. of Soil Science Cairo University LAS Programme Coordinator • LAS Climate Risk Nexus Initiative "LAS CRNI" The League of Arab States Geographical Information Room – Hosted by Arab Water Council • LAS AGIR – Hosted by AWC Scoping Mee2ng on Assessing Drought Risk and the Agricultural Sector in the UNISDR led Global Risk Model Historic Hotel Boulderado, in Boulder, Colorado, USA, between the 7th and 9th of February, 2017
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Wadid Erian- Mapping and Modeling Agriculture Drought ... · Climate Agriculture Drought Hazard ... • social vulnerability and ... risks to other SDGs and social vulnerability q
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Mapping and Modeling Agriculture Drought HazardClimate
Stress
Prof. Wadid ERIAN
Prof. of Soil Science Cairo University LAS Programme Coordinator • LAS Climate Risk Nexus Initiative "LAS CRNI" The League of Arab
States Geographical Information Room – Hosted by Arab Water Council • LAS AGIR – Hosted by AWC
during the growing season affects yield - SOIL MOISTURE DROUGHT, or AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT,
Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in precipitation.
Precipitation deficit is defined as a METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
A MEGADROUGHT is drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more.
Drought is a relative term shortage of precipitation
related to particular activity
A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance.
during the runoff season affects water supplies – HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
WhatisDrought?
AGRICULTURE DROUGHT HAZARD
LAND COVER/USE
LOSS IN CROPS
SPEI
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT SOCIO ECONOMICA LOSSES
HAZARD
RISK
VULNERABILITY
EXPOSURE POPULATION
Affected POPULATION
Land Degradation
COUNTRY CAPACITY
AGRICULTURE DROUGHT HAZARD
LAND COVER/USE
LOSS IN CROPS
SPEI
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT SOCIO ECONOMICA LOSSES
HAZARD
RISK
VULNERABILITY
EXPOSURE
POPULATION
Affected POPULATION
Land Degradation
COUNTRY CAPACITY
Social Vulnerability Water in security Food insufficient
q Define single, compound and Multi-hazards Hot spots areas
EcologicalUnit
Precipitation 5km
Mean Temperature
5 km
ET 5km
Land Cover/ Land Use
MODIES Data 250 m
Drought stress
Land Degradation
SPEI
Physiography and Soils
Agro Climatic Zones
Length of growing period
Soil Moisture regime
Soil Temperature
regime
. Mapping and Modeling Affected Areas by Drought
Remote Sensing Data Identify Crops
Hazard
Exposure
PrimaryData Secondarydata
LAND COVER q Building Land scape q (geomorphic unit) q Lithology map q Soils data bank q ground water data base q Hydrological basins database q Ecological Units (geomorphic with
geomorphology terms, agro-climatic zones and soils)
Synthesis of evidence on the impacts of climate change on elements of human security and the interactions between livelihoods, conflict, culture, and migration. Interventions and policies indicated by difference between initial conditions (solid black) and outcome of intervention (white circles). Some interventions (blue arrows) show net increase human security while others (red arrows) lead to net decrease in human security. IPCC 2014
Describe livelihood dynamics under simultaneous clima2c, environmental, andsocioeconomicstressors,shocks,andpolicyresponses–leadingtodifferen2allivelihoodtrajectories over 2me. The red boxes indicate specific cri2calmomentswhen stressorsconverge,threateninglivelihoodsandwell-being. IPCC 2014