Vulnerable populations affected by mining: Predicting and preventing outbreaks of physical violence

The Extractive Industries and Society xxx (2015) xxx–xxx

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Vulnerable populations affected by mining: Predicting and preventingoutbreaks of physical violence

Carol J. Bonda,*, Philipp Kirschb

aUniversity of Queensland, School of Business & Sustainable Minerals Institute, Brisbane, 4072, AustraliabUniversity of Queensland, Minerals Industry Safety and Health Centre, Brisbane, 4072, Australia

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:Received 28 November 2014Received in revised form 12 June 2015

Available online xxx

Keywords:Mining-related violenceConflict mineralsMineral valueViolence predictionConflict prevention

A B S T R A C T

Mining occurs in ever more remote areas of the world inhabited by some of the world’s most vulnerablepopulations. Loosely framing these populations as living in ‘developing country’ contexts does notadequately address the risk of physical violence they face as a result of mining activity. This articleexplores the risk of violence that may be exacerbated by rises in commodity prices. Whether short livedor long-term, dramatic increases in mineral prices appear to drive behaviour leading to physical violencefor vulnerable populations. The article posits that there may be a relationship between the actual orperceived value of mineral resources and the level of violence that occurs in mining-related conflicts.Consequently, it is theoretically possible to proactively anticipate potential outbreaks of violence invulnerable populations. Underlying is a mapping exercise of mining related conflict to see where miningrelated conflict is happening; to identify precipitant causes of mining related conflict; and, to discoverpotential correlations in the degree of violence and the value of the mineral(s) implicated. Implicationsare drawn for how preventative measures might be put into place in order that human suffering is notincreased when financial markets drive up commodity prices.

ã 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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1. Introduction

This paper argues that company-community conflict in themining sector is a product of potentially mitigable triggers ordrivers. We problematise the relationship between commodityprice and mining-related conflict. Since the early 2000s, mineraland energy commodity prices have increased, along with growingdemand for mined resources. As reported by the ICMM, “Theincreased output of metals and the increased value of most metalshave resulted in a rise in value of the global metal and industrialminerals mining industry from US$214 billion in 2000 to US$644 billion by 2010” (Ericsson and Hodge, 2012, p. 7). Thesephenomena have fuelled rapid global expansion of the extractiveindustries, with much of this growth located in the Global South aswell as regions in the Global North where indigenous communitiesstill honour their traditional lifestyles.

Accompanying the increase in mining activity has been a risein the number of conflicts between companies and localcommunities (Banfield et al., 2005; Cliffe and Roberts, 2011;Osuji, 2011; Rasche, 2010). The wide range of consequences to

* Corresponding author.E-mail address: [email protected] (C.J. Bond).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2015.06.0082214-790X/ã 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: C.J. Bond, P. Kirsch, Vulnerable popuphysical violence, Extr. Ind. Soc. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2

the lives and environments of people working for, and livingwithin, the impact zone of a mine has the potential to eithergenerate or reawaken both sustained and episodic conflict withcommunities (Carstens and Hilson, 2009). Such conflict canbecome physically violent. There are examples of overt,physically violent conflict involving mining companies andcommunities throughout the world. Well publicised examplesinclude the Tampakan copper mine in the Philippines (Pamfiloet al., 2005), the Panguna gold and copper mine in Bougainville(Boege, 2010), the diamond fields of Sierra Leone and Liberia(Custers and Matthysen, 2009), and countless gold mines inSouth Africa or the Americas (BICC, 2008; Clark, 2002; Özkaynaket al., 2012; Rustad and Binningsbø, 2012)

The risks related specifically to outbreaks of physical violencefor vulnerable populations are particularly concerning. Vulnerablepopulations in relation to mining are characterised firstly as thosewith limited power and financial resources (CIDSE, 2009).However, they also have particular challenges related to issuessuch as displacement, resulting from both voluntary or involuntaryresettlement, as witnessed in Limpopo, South Africa and Colombia(Farrell et al., 2012; Harker, 2008); human rights issues as in theDRC, Congo and Indonesia; artisanal mining, as in Porgera, PapuaNew Guinea (ERI, 2014; Human Rights Watch, 2010); andindigeneity (Fijn et al., 2012; Forest Peoples Programme and

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Tebtebba Foundation, 2006; O’Faircheallaigh, 2013). Exacerbatingthe singular and cumulative effects of these vulnerabilities arerelated issues which drive conflict, including human security,bribery and corruption, a lack of employment opportunities, loss oftraditional livelihoods, health and safety of mine workers, familyand community cohesion, corporate-community communication,information transparency, trade practices, threats to culturalintegrity, and environmental change (Paull et al., 2006; Bainton2009). Many of these drivers are cross-linked in multiple ways. Forexample, rapid in-migration population increases of prospectivelegal and artisanal workers to mine sites increases the pressure onlocal communities without capacity or infrastructure to supporttheir needs (Rigg, 2007). Overall, these multiple drivers of conflictconfigure in unique ways that have the potential to contribute toexpressions of physical violence for mining-affected communities.

In addition to considering the variety of drivers of miningcompany-community conflict named above, this article examinesthe one driver that has been largely missing in these discussions:the role of commodity prices. The article reports findings from apreliminary study undertaken to investigate possible linksbetween commodity price changes and rates of community-levelviolence in vulnerable communities. Our initial research, whilelimited in scope, suggests there is a link. We are not alone innoticing this possible correlation. In their analysis of recent trendsin Colombia, Idrobo et al. (2014) observed that “the rise of illegalgold mining that took place in Colombia after the large increase inthe international price of gold, led to higher levels of violence inregions of Colombia with the presence of gold deposits” (p. 109).

We suggest that rising commodity prices could be interpretedas an early warning signal for impending increases in miningcompany-community violence. In other words, if, for example,there is a spike in diamond prices it may be reasonable toanticipate that mining activity, and related social and environ-mental stressors, will intensify in and around diamond fields. Thearticle concludes that, by correlating spikes in commodity pricewith known vulnerable community contexts, mining companiesand governments might choose to implement specific interven-tions supportive of human well-being, rather than or in advance ofthe more forceful response of deploying military or riot police. Pre-emptively addressing basic human needs has potential to reducepressure on other social and economic conflict drivers in themining context. In so doing, preventive action could reduce thepotential for outbreaks of physical violence, while minimising theunwanted costs and outcomes of mining related conflict for localand international stakeholders.

The next section describes the various forms of violence thatcan be present in the mining context according to peacebuildingtheory. Next, we provide an overview of the literature we used toinform the development of our methods, described subsequently.In the results is an indicative series of tables isolating data sources,mineral values, conflict location, type of mining, and number ofpeople who died/suffered serious injury as a result of the conflict.While we recognise there are often a number of compounding andcontributing factors resulting in loss of life in the mining context(e.g. poverty, livelihood opportunities, governance, economic andpolitical pressures), these variables are not examined in this articlebut will be explored in subsequent research. As well, no detailedeconomic modelling was done; the original study was strictly a‘proof of concept’ exercise, not the development of a sophisticatedprediction tool. The final section of the article discusses theimplications of the possible correlation of mining-related violencewith the value of minerals extracted.

Please cite this article in press as: C.J. Bond, P. Kirsch, Vulnerable popuphysical violence, Extr. Ind. Soc. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2

2. Mining and conflict: what constitutes ‘violent’?’

In the literature on peacebuilding theory, ‘conflict’ is a term thathas the potential to be interpreted in multiple and different waysand is not always physically violent. For the purposes of this article,we borrow from Peace Terms (Aall, 2011) which defines conflict as:

. . . an inevitable aspect of human interaction, conflict ispresent when two or more individuals or groups pursuemutually incompatible goals. Conflicts can be waged violently,as in a war, or nonviolently, as in an election or an adversariallegal process. When channeled constructively into processes ofresolution, conflict can be beneficial. [p. 14]

Non-violent conflict is simply part of the human experience andcan be an indication that an opportunity for change is emerging inthe relationship between individuals or organisations (Bond,2014). Change is an integral characteristic of mining, being alarge, disruptive activity in competition for land and water withcommunities. Environmental impacts (pollution and competitionfor resources) are most commonly precipitate conflict, followed byabsence of stakeholder consent, community health and safetyconcerns, and various socio-economic issues (revenue distribu-tion, loss of culture and customs, and dissatisfaction withcommunication processes) (Davis and Franks, 2014).

Mining-related conflicts are complex, characterised by a rangeof effects classed as ‘violent’, and with multiple drivers (Whitemanand Mamen, 2002). While not always true, the prevailing anecdotalperception is that mineral extraction, as such, fuels physically-violent conflict. Mineral extraction activities have certainly beenassociated with conflict, physical violence and death on sixcontinents over the millennia; and the very large footprint ofmodern industrial mines almost always dictates major human andenvironmental disruption and displacement. Since 2005, articleshave regularly appeared linking certain minerals with violentconflict: gold; gemstones (particularly diamonds); platinum; andrare earth metals (e.g. coltan, tin, tantalum and tungsten) (Fig. 1).Ross (2003) not only makes the claim that “natural resources play akey role in triggering, prolonging, and financing conflicts” (p. 17)but also states that “the natural resources that cause theseproblems are largely oil and hard-rock minerals, including coltan,diamonds, gold, and other gemstones” (ibid.). In the internationalpolicy arena, the response to these mining-related conflicts hasbeen to label and respond to them as an abridgment of HumanRights (Feil and Switzer, 2004; Kallman and Karmel, 2012; Ruggie,2011b).

While development of extractive industries may deliver somebenefits to surrounding communities, corporations seldom

Fig. 1. Links between civil wars and mineral wealth (adapted from Ross (2003),Fig. 2).

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address or mitigate the ecological, social and spiritual cost, asdocumented by Denoon (2000), Regan and Griffin (2005) andWhiteman (2009) especially regarding the effects of mining onvulnerable Indigenous Peoples. However, negative outcomes fromconflict between mining companies and communities can becostly to companies and host States as well. These can havefinancial repercussions and more such as damaged property,political consequences, relational rupture, reputational damage,legal complications, lost income and lost development opportu-nities (DasGupta, 2012; Ganson, 2011). Davis and Franks (2014), intheir innovative study on quantifying the costs of a range of conflicttypes in the mining space, observe the following about the50 company-community conflicts they analysed:

. . . company–community conflict tended to escalate fromcampaigns and procedure-based actions through to physicalprotest. Strikingly, half of the cases analysed involved a projectblockade (25 of 50 cases) while, around a third involved afatality (21 of 50) or injuries, damage to private property (17 of50), or the suspension or abandonment of the project (15 of 50).[p. 17]

Their study emphasises the costs of conflicts related toenvironmental and social conflict drivers, and makes the linkbetween conflict and the eruption of physical violence. Moreover,they provide important groundwork to make the case foraddressing conflict proactively. However, their study does notmake the link between commodity price and conflict as a factorthat can push a non-violent conflict into more violent expressions.

When conflicts escalate into physical violence, the social,political, environmental and economic consequences can span therange from the disruption of resource extraction to disruption ofthe social, political and economic activities of a society (Kempet al., 2011). Violence does not contribute to human well-being.However, violence is not limited to physical expressions orbellicose behaviour. Violence comes in three forms each of whichcan be found in the mining context: structural, cultural, or direct(Barash and Webel, 2002). Its onset can be either acute (suddenly)or chronic (cumulative effects over time) (CDA et al., 2012; PBSO,2008). It is important to acknowledge, as indicated in Table 1, thatsome forms violence can be expressed by either or both parties,mining company or community members (including mine work-ers), and may implicate host governments. This article argues thatwhen markets rapidly elevate commodity prices, the marketactivity is an instance of structural violence (e.g. violence built intothe structures of the way a system operates) with potential to betranslated to physical and sometimes even cultural violence (e.g.gender, class or caste based) at the community level (Roberts,2009).

Table 1Varieties of violence.

Type Definition L

Structuralviolence(chronic; oftenlong-term andinadvertent)

Unintended harm done to human beings at the structural, orsocio-political level (Galtung, 1985, p. 145)

MwwG

Cultural Violence(chronic oracute)

Restrictions or prohibitions that affect the welfare and well-being of human beings related to cultural, heritage or religiousvalues (Parlevliet, 2011, p. 380)

Mc

Direct/physicalviolence(acute)

Physical violence or intimidation that results in bodily injury,pain or death (Parlevliet, 2011, p. 383)

CmMcg

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Some authors (e.g. Escobar, 2006) argue that violence is not onlyendemic to but also constitutive of development. This is a pointworth emphasising in regard to vulnerable populations, if only toquery whether or not mining-related development aspirationsunfold without being perceived as violent by the intendedbeneficiaries. Downey et al. (2010) argue that when violenceescalates to an armed conflict due to displacement, disadvantageand other factors commonly present in the mined resources space,vulnerable people are further disadvantaged by both the largemulti-national enterprises (MNEs) as well as by their owngovernments. They further provide evidence that armed violenceimplicates international finance institutions on which the MNEsand States depend for financing, arguing that “Armed violence isassociated with the activities of the world’s three largest miningcompanies, with African mines that receive World Bank funding,and with petroleum and rainforest timber extraction” (p. 417). Theauthors conclude that the natural resource base on whichindustrial societies stand is constructed in large part throughthe use and threatened use of armed violence.

Against this background of structural issues that link, and mayeven perpetuate, armed violence between large mining operationsand vulnerable populations, our paper will not analyse suchconflict at either the international or State level. Nor do we suggeststructural changes for the financing arrangements neoliberaleconomics critics who have linked these structures not todevelopment but to violence in the mining sector (Akiwumi,2012; Bebbington et al., 2008). Instead, we focus on mining-relatedconflict in the space at the local level between extractive resourceoperations (or sites) and proximate communities. Further, wepropose that community-level violence emerges in part as aresponse to over-arching structural violence of the financialmarkets that does not emanate at the site level and over whichvulnerable populations have little to no influence. While states andMNEs go backwards and forwards about the best way to alignmarket-related structures to reduce unintended consequences atthe local level (Cliffe and Roberts, 2011), we argue here that local-level relief from the effects of market-linked, structural violencedoes not need to wait.

3. Guiding literature

The literature about mining and conflict is broad and has atendency to emphasise violence and atrocities in a poignantlyretrospective way. Yet, these articles do not appear to robustlyadvance prevention or mitigation strategies. Our article does notprovide a comprehensive review of this literature base thathistorically documents instances of mining company–communityrelationships that have gone horribly wrong. Instead, the more

ocal actor Examples in the mining context

ineorkers, sexorkersovernment

*The unintended sexual health consequences (e.g. HIV/AIDs) thatappear with the in-migration pressures of a mining workforce.*When governments grant mining leases without adequateconsultation of and no recourse for people already living on the land.

iningompany

*When mining companies exercise their legal right to excavate anore body without the consent of Indigenous peoples who considerthe land sacred or as having traditional value.

ommunityembersiningompany,overnment

*When community members throw rocks at mine workers;vandalize property and equipment; and otherwise threaten thephysical safety of mine workers and management.*When mining companies call on the assistance of the state viapolice, military, riot squads or para-military groups to forciblyremove protesters or artisanal miners from a mining lease

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limited literature base we used to guide the development of ourexploratory study includes: reports by International FinancialInstitutions (IFIs) and Intergovernmental Organsations (IGOs);mining-focused voluntary initiatives and guidance notes; andinternational regulatory initiatives. The content of these referencesinspired the development of the methods for our systematic mediareview.

We found only two guides that provide robust practical advicefor how mining companies might operationalise conflict reductionand mitigation strategies. While acknowledging that the primaryresponsibility for maintaining civil order rests with the sovereignstate, the focus of these guides is to point out that multi-nationalenterprises (MNEs) and large businesses, in particular, have a roleto play in encouraging economies and conditions that do notpromote or fuel conflict. Few technical instructions are provided,but all guides offer points of reference for companies and theirstakeholders who are intent upon developing policies andprocedures to improve their conduct and performance in thisarea. Two examples are described in depth below.

Guidance on Responsible Business in Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas: A Resource for Companies and Investors was written forthe United Nations Global Compact (Powell et al., 2010). Itsummarises areas to assist businesses in making decisions toaddress and prevent conflict, within their sphere of influence. Theguide categorises a variety of regional, national and internationalconflicts of which mining companies need to be aware and towhich they may need to respond. The first kind of conflict is a resultof political and social instability. In these instances, there may notbe open, armed conflict but the threat of violence is immanent. Thesecond kind of conflict occurs in situations where civil liberties andhuman rights are threatened, but open violence is not present. Thethird kind of conflict is open warfare, of whatever scale. The fourthconflict occurs in fragile regions where warfare has recentlyconcluded, otherwise known as transitional contexts. In any ofthese contexts, minerals—in and of themselves—do not cause theconflict directly. Current thinking in ‘Resource Curse’ scholarshippoints out that it is peoples’ use of the minerals, and the use offunds generated through both legal and illegal trade, which is whatcauses the kind of insecurity leading to conflict and occasionallyviolence (Brunnschweiler and Bulte, 2008; Carbonnier et al., 2010;Lederman and Maloney, 2007). The guide emphasises the need fora planned, not ad hoc, strategy that takes into account the socialimpact and mitigates the potential to exacerbate conflict.

The second guidance document is Conflict-Sensitive BusinessPractice: Guidance for Extractive Industries, written by Banfield et al.(2005). The authors recognise that mining companies frequentlyinvest in conflict-prone societies in some of the most remote anddisadvantaged corners of the world. Mining companies have littlechoice about where to conduct their business; mining can onlyhappen where ore deposits are found. Mining companies areinherently conflict averse, as conflict and violence increase the costof mining and inhibit the ability to excavate ore bodies or take theproducts to market. However, mining companies often findthemselves in the position of first-responder in these conflict-

Table 2Causes of conflict.

Causes ofconflict

Definition

Structural/root causes

Pervasive factors that are built into the policies, structures or fabric ofcreate the preconditions for violent conflict

Proximatecauses

Factors that are symptomatic of the root causes of conflicts or may lescalation

Triggers Single acts, events or the anticipation thereof that set off violent conflic

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prone regions even though they have neither the skills, nor theinterest nor the official responsibility for doing so. For example,“Western companies have been stung by fierce controversy overtheir activities in resource-rich countries as diverse as Angola,Colombia, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Nigeria” (Bray, 2005). Itbehoves mining companies, therefore, to be able to conduct bothmacro and project-level conflict risk and impact assessments todetermine the causes of conflict. The types of conflict that needattention are classed in Table 2 according to peacebuilding theory(adapted from Banfield et al., 2005).

A second area of literature informing our study comes from theproliferation of voluntary initiatives which elevate aspects ofhuman rights (Global Witness, 2007). Major voluntary initiativesinclude: International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Policy andPerformance Standards (IFC, 2012), the Protect, Respect, RemedyHuman Rights Framework (Ruggie, 2011a), the UN Global Compact(United Nations Global Compact, 2010), the OECD Guidelines forMultinational Enterprises (OECD, 2011), the Global ReportingInitiative (https://www.globalreporting.org) and the VoluntaryPrinciples on Security and Human Rights (Voluntary Principles,2000). These and others are valuable in framing ethical corporatebehaviour across a range of root causes of conflict. However,because they are voluntary, there are no transparency or reportingrequirements to ensure that corporations are actually puttingvoluntary policies and procedures into place; there is no singular,neutral third party to evaluate performance or enforce a change incorporate behaviour; and, there is little guidance from voluntaryinitiatives on what to do in conflict areas when violence breaks out(Global Witness, 2007). With respect to the extractive industries,the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) has issuedseveral publications regarding human rights in the mining andmetals industry (ICMM, 2010a,b; ICMM, 2012) as well as a jointpublication of Voluntary Principles: Implementation GuidanceTools (ICMM, ICRC, IFC, and IPIECA, 2011).

The third and final area relates to the international initiativesaimed at stopping the most extreme forms of violence associatedwith mining. These initiatives are linked to the growing trendcompelling mining companies, and other MNEs, to protect, respectand remedy human rights abuses (Nolan and Taylor, 2009; Ruggie,2008; The Global Compact, 2012). The Frank-Dodd Act, Sec-tion 1502, specifically targets the DRC conflict minerals to stopillegal smuggling and reduce the amount of financial resourcesavailable to armed militia (Securities and Exchange Commission,2010). In 2000, the United Nations and the World DiamondCongress established the Kimberley Process CertificationScheme to encourage diamond traders and purchasers to demanda ‘certificate of origin’ on diamonds in a bid to reduce the amount ofsmuggled gems that are used to fuel conflict (Kimberley Process,2002). Angola and Sierra Leone are among the countries targetedby this initiative because they have, in the past, been a well-knownsource of conflict or ‘blood’ diamonds.

After reviewing the literature cited above, we noticed severalgaps in knowledge. These gaps suggest either reluctance or aninability, practical or legal, to directly ‘name-names’ in relation to

Examples

society and may Illegitimate government, lack of equal economic and socialopportunity, lack of political participation

ead to further Light-weapons proliferation, human rights abuse, objectives ofpolitical actors, role of diasporas

t or its escalation Elections, behaviour of political actors, sudden collapse ofcurrency, increased food scarcity

lations affected by mining: Predicting and preventing outbreaks of015.06.008

Table 3Lives lost and serious injury per commodity.

Mineral Killed Injured No. of events

Diamonds 548 20a 4Gold 201 201 30Copper 190 251 16Oil 120 155 3Platinum 50 95 1Coal 0 4 1Tin 16 115 1Iron 5 no data 1Silver 2 11 2TOTALS 1132 852 59

No accurate data available.a Not fully representative of number of people injured.

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mining-related, physically-violent conflict. Firstly, scholars tend topublish about mining-related conflict from a theoretical ratherthan an empirical perspective. Secondly, when it was clear thatactual conflict incidents at mine sites were being referenced, thenames of the companies and the exact location of the mine siteswere generally de-identified. Thirdly, descriptions of atrocitiesassociated with related mining-conflicts rarely paint a completepicture of who and how many people were involved, how manypeople were injured or died as a result of the conflict, and theimpact the financial value of the type of ore is on the extent of theconflict. The absence of this variety of information becameincreasingly and was a key reason for undertaking a contentanalysis of mining/conflict stories in the global news media. Thechallenge was now one of how to collect and collate primary dataabout mining-related conflict that leads to death and injuryparticularly of both mine workforce and surrounding communitymembers, including activists.

4. Methods

In order to interrogate the premise that commodity prices ofminerals are linked to physical violence in vulnerable populations,we undertook a ‘content analysis’ of both online news media andacademic literature. We developed a systematic review inspired byTranfield et al. (2003) who emphasise the need to provideempirical data from bodies of literature. A systematic review canprovide evidence-based information, highlight the absence of dataand identify gaps to direct future research efforts (Petticrew andRoberts, 2006). Using the examples provided by Tranfield et al., thedesign of the research protocol can be illustrated in the followingdiagram:

We conducted an exploratory search over a period of threemonths in late 2012 and early 2013. We searched exclusively forexamples of violence reported or recorded between 2005 and2012. The search was limited to English language sources and toonline content from major news media outlets using terms: miningand violence, mining and conflict, mining protests, resource curse,mining and human rights abuses. Major news outlets (e.g. BritishBroadcasting Corporation, Australian Broadcasting Corporation,The New York Times and The Guardian) as well as regional newsoutlets and mining-specific news sources (e.g. Mining andCommunities) were scanned for evidence of violent conflictoccurring in a mining context across commodity types. Once thearticles citing violent incidents were identified, the articlesthemselves were combed for statistics using the following terms:violence, violent death, die, dead, injury and injured.

Some caution needs to be highlighted about the word ‘violent’in relation to mining conflicts. The use of the term is inconsistent atbest. It could refer to protestors throwing rocks at mining vehiclesor it can refer to militia in helicopters strafing artisanal mineworkers. For reasons that were opaque, some violent conflictsattracted more journal article and media attention than others.However, in all instances, it was necessary to triangulate the factsto find two or three sources with exactly the same count of peopleeither injured or killed per incident. Our research team found thatreporting was often uneven and inconsistent, even with respect tothe same events. This reveals a gap in the media information. Wetherefore used several different, commonly used search enginesand attempted to triangulate all news reports to confirm and verifythe circumstances and specific data around individual events.

Once the incidents were identified, data were placed in a matrixwith the following indicators: source(s) of information, date ofevent, type of ore(s), number of deaths, number of injuries,country, company, site name, stage of mine, underground or opencut (if applicable), type of security (if available), presence ofartisanal miners, ore value at time of conflict, and whether or not

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there was active war at the time of the conflict. After disaggregat-ing data for active conflict (war) zones and non-conflict zones, thescale of violence was compared. The dataset is indicative at best,however, as it was not possible to gather data on every singlemining related conflict over the seven-year period due to time,language barriers and data availability issues. As well, genderrelated violence (e.g. sexual assault) was not classified in thisstudy—although it could have been in some, but not all, instances.

The search for data on incidents was performed and cross-checked by two researchers. Where data on specific incidenceswere incomplete, a thorough internet-based search was conductedto make sure we had the most accurate data possible tocharacterise the mine sites and related incidences. This step wasimportant so as not to double (or triple) count particular violentincidences. All data sources were collected in an EndNote library tofacilitate the systematic analysis of the full text of each news andjournal article. Capturing our analysis in an Excel spread-sheet, wewere able to generate quantitative data from the qualitativesources in the final dataset and present the results below.

Finally, we looked at the prices of the metals implicated in theincidents we were able to identify and fact check. Althoughhistorical financial information is carefully guarded, and we did nothave access to data held by investment houses, we were able tosource overall trends of commodity prices at weekly and monthlyintervals. We then correlated the dates of the known physicallyviolent conflict with financial trends for each mineral to see if therewas any change in price close to (before or after) the time of eachincident. Our findings are reported below.

5. Results: systematic review and content analysis

Although not conclusive, our results indicate that there may bepatterns to the types of violent, physical conflict that occurbetween vulnerable populations. Following a review of over561 journal and 383 news articles, we were able to identify reliableempirical data on 59 mining related conflicts where violenceresulted in death or injury (Table 3). The research team also foundthree instances of large-scale violence during this time period thatimplicated mining in the DRC, Liberia and Colombia. The statisticson human casualties from these larger regional conflicts are wellpublicised. However, they were not included in the findingsbecause it was extremely challenging to disaggregate thethousands of people who were killed or injured, over significanttime periods, as being a direct result of mining-based conflict

The data reveal that 80% of conflicts in our sample (n = 59) wereassociated with the four most valuable minerals: diamonds, gold,platinum and copper (Fig. 3). A deeper analysis could beundertaken to normalise these results against the knowndistribution of each mineral resource.

lations affected by mining: Predicting and preventing outbreaks of015.06.008

↓

↓

↓

↓

→

↓

↓

↓

↓

↓

Define th e question , speci fying ar eas of inter est : Where, wh en and wha t ty pe of ph ysic ally -violent, mining -related confl ict eru pted?

Identify databases: Goog le Schol ar, Sc opus, Pro Que st, Brit ish Broad Co rpo rati on, Austra lian Broadcast Corporation, the New York Time, the Gua rdi an

Criticall y ana lys e and evaluate data sour ces: verify and compare da ta where multiple sources refer to same event; sear ch for corroboratory information abo ut parti cular mine sites to veri fy types of mine rals ;

classify da ta acco rding to mine rals (commo diti es) min ed

Final sea rch: (news me dia= 383; jo urnal art icles=56 1)

Exclu sio n criteria: duplic ates, ty pe of documents (o nly news articles and mi ning-

related journ al arti cles) , theo retica l, conc eptu al, those con tra dicting higher qu ality sou rces

Defin e keyword s: mining and viol ence, mining and conf lict, minin g prote sts , resourc e curs e, mini ng an d human right s abu ses

Search that sub -set with the follo wing key words: viol ence, vi olent death, die, dead , injur y and injured

Establish ‘refi ne and exclude’ criteria: Main rese arch areas, lang uag e, types of documents

Inclus ion crite ria: La ngu age (Eng lish), research ar eas , empiric al and relat ed to mining

activit y, commodit y names, main fo cus of physica l violence in relat ion to co nflict

Ineligible sou rces: (media=175; jo urnal articles: 215)

Report on find ings , gaps , and su ggest indicat ive fu rther res earch direction s

Usabl e so urces: (media=208; journal articles: 346)

Fig. 2. Systematic Review: design of the research protocol (adapted from Petticrew and Roberts, 2006).

Fig. 3. Number of conflicts per commodity (as a percentage of the total numberanalysed).

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The data reveal the following correlations between the amountof value of a mineral and the number of people who were eitherkilled or injured as a result of mining-related violence. It appears asthough diamonds—the most valuable mineral per ounce—are themost strongly implicated in terms of total number of mining-related deaths per incident as compared to those related to anyother mineral. Diamonds also appear to be more commonly linkedwith civil wars than other minerals (see Fig. 3). What wassurprising, however, is how many gold and copper relatedincidents were reflected in the sample size. There were far moreconflicts related to these two minerals than to any others.Consequently, mining-related conflict affected more people inthe vicinity of those mine sites than those in the vicinity of othermining sites. However, this finding can and should be challengedrelated to diamonds as we have not yet located a quality datasource to assess the comprehensive number of people injured,displaced or otherwise negatively affected by diamond-relatedconflicts.

The data also indicate that conflict was distributed across manycountries of the world (Table 4), with a predominance ofincidences from developing countries and unstable states.

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Table 4Conflicts per country.

Country No. of conflicts Country No. of conflicts

Bolivia 3 Peru 10Burma 2 Philippines 2Chile 2 Papua New Guinea 6DRC 3 Sierra Leone 2Ecuador 2 South Africa 5Ghana 6 Tanzania 3Guatemala 1 Thailand 1India 1 West Papua 1Indonesia 3 Zambia 3Mexico 1 Zimbabwe 2

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A common assumption amongst researchers and journalists isthat where there is mining-related violence, either state-ownedfirms, corrupt governments, mining juniors, or Chinese, Russian orother operators with poor Human Rights records are most likely tobe involved (Bannon and Collier, 2003). There are examplessupporting this assumption on scandalous and well-knownconflict zones related to mining in Africa. Two of the most violentare located in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We describe two here:

� Chinese copper companies operating in Zambia have beenimplicated in a series of violent outbursts related to workercompensation and working conditions (United Nations, 2004;Wells, 2011).

� The Marange Diamond Fields are notorious for large-scalekillings, beatings, torture and sexual assault by Zimbabwe’ssecurity forces while sale of those diamonds supports thecorrupt Mugabe government (Correspondent, 2010; Murwira,2011).

However, outbursts of violence do not only occur in minesowned by what are considered by some to be failed states, corruptor unethical contexts, they can happen in sites owned regulated,corporations that have robust community relations departmentsand are signatories to multiple voluntary initiatives mentioned inSection 2 (Table 5).

Publically-listed multinational companies, such as the follow-ing four ICMM members, have also had eruptions of violence attheir sites that have led to injury and loss of life.

� Chile’s Codelco has a global focus on improving sustainabledevelopment within the mining and metals industry, had aviolent conflict at a copper mine where a total of 35 contractorswere wounded by police in a three-week strike (Soto, 2011).

� Newmont has had recurrent violent conflict at the Yanacochagold mine in Peru. Community opposition to the miningactivities is complex but largely related to environmental andcompensation issues (Herz et al., 2007; Kemp et al., 2012).

� Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg gold mine in Indonesia hired localpolice to guard its mine. However, rather than protectingworkers, the local police shot striking mine workers who

Table 5Company headquarter location.

Country No. of companies Country No. of companies

Canada 6 UK 2Australia 5 Bolivia 1USA 5 Brazil 1South Africa 3 Chile 1China 2 Colombia 1Peru 2 India 1Sierra Leone 2 PNG 1Switzerland 2 Zimbabwe 1

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objected to the terms of their employment and compensation(Michaels, 2011).

� Goldcorp is a Canadian-based company that operates the Marlingold mine in Guatemala since 2005. Human rights abuses andenvironmental damages have caused conflicts between the mineand local community, leading to the death of one person andaround 50 injuries (Murphy and Vives, 2013).

Finally, when we correlated the incidences of physical violencewith commodity mined, we noticed that before each and every onethere was a spike in commodity price. It could have been over aperiod of six months (e.g. gold and diamonds) or a period of weeks(e.g. rare earth metals). We found that when the value of acommodity climbed rapidly, any mineral—even bulky commodi-ties such as iron ore—can be implicated in violence when globaldemand jumps and prices soar, even temporarily. In otherinstances, minerals can be implicated by ore body association.

For example, Indium is a volatile commodity, often associatedwith silver mines. It has a commodity price with soaring peaks andprecipitous drops. The literature suggests that during periods ofspiked value, violence associated with Indium increases (Garces,2012; Gibson and Hayes, 2011). However, Indium is not indicatedon the results tables as it was not possible to disaggregate indiumrelated violence from silver related violence in the current sample.

Although outside the scope of this study, our very basic effortsto correlate commodity price with incidences of physical violencereveal the potential to investigate further the nature and extent ofthe correlation between mining-related violence and commodityprice. Two indicative questions are suggested:

� Does the violence precede a spike in commodity value or does itprecipitate a drop in value?

� Is there a rapid percentage climb in value over time that is anindicator that violence is more immanent in unstable in-countrysituations?

Clearly, better quality data on incidences of physically violentconflict and better quality financial modelling data would improvethe specificity of the results. A few of the challenges we faced aredescribed below and comprise part of our findings.

News about African conflicts are often not reported in theirentirety by Western media outlets and their real causes remainmisunderstood or ignored. In a Latin American example, Ven-ezuelan rain forest people, the Yanomami, claimed that there was amassacre of a settlement comprising 80 indigenous people by goldminers in July, 2012. Later it was revealed that the whole story wasan elaborate hoax, but not until after some major NGOs—notablyUK-based Survival International—had thrown their weight behindthe story (Survival International, 2012; Wallace, 2012). Findings ofinaccuracies such as this resulted in a slow and laborious fact-checking process, impeding rapid distillation and analysis of dataaround mining-related violence.

In most of the diamond, gold and copper related events in thesample, the related articles suggest that large numbers of peoplewere involved—up to thousands of people protesting or hundredsof people working at a mine. The scale of the number of peopleaffected is substantial but an accurate census of the peopleinvolved is extremely difficult to verify. This lack of informationlends itself to the development of less reliable anecdotal evidenceabout the association of mining with violent conflict based onperception and rumour more than on fact. The proliferation ofanecdotal evidence is compounded by the fact that compared toMNEs, local communities have limited power and resources topromote their concerns on the global stage. They have an incentiveto collaborate with international activist groups having access totechnology, a penchant for inaccurate reporting and a willingness

lations affected by mining: Predicting and preventing outbreaks of015.06.008

1 http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi (Accessed 10June 2015).

2 https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2014#.VHfLEzGUd8E (Accessed 10 June 2015).

3 http://uhri.ohchr.org/en (Accessed 10 June 2015).4 http://micla.ca/conflicts/ (Accessed 10 June 2015).5 http://kumbhmelaallahabad.gov.in/english/index.html (Accessed 10 June

2015).

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to use ‘name and shame’ tactics to try to stop or change aspectsrelated to mining (Calvano, 2007). Stories from a localised district,therefore, can multiply through global press coverage, creating asituation where past conflicts cast very long shadows. The result isthat an entire country or even a continent becomes implicated. Forexample, the international community perceives DR Congo as alawless state plagued by war where doing business is almostimpossible. However, the reality is that apart from the north Kivuprovinces where militias are still active, DR Congo is today largelyat peace (Spittaels and Hilgert, 2009).

6. Discussion of findings and policy implications

Our exploratory study suggests that there indeed may be acorrelation between rapid rises in commodity prices and theprovocation, or translation of, mining related conflict across arange of triggers. We found that vulnerable populations faced withmultiple sources of conflict both structural and cultural, (Table 1)were distressed and vocal about their displeasure regarding them.However, there was usually a flash point—a final trigger—thatmoved the mining company–community conflict from non-physically but perhaps structurally violent to conflict that resultedin the loss of life or limbs. In almost every single case we couldidentify, that final trigger (Table 2) seemed to be correlated with aspike in commodity price. From peacebuilding theory, this finalcause of violence pairs structural and proximate causes with atrigger that has potential to erupt into physical violence.

Mining companies, their financiers and host States may notshare the view that rises and falls in commodity prices haveconsequences outside of the markets. In other words, they do notappear to make the connection that financial markets can beexperienced as structurally violent. One possible conclusion fromour study is that vulnerable communities outside the marketsystem appear to make this connection. They may be responding totriggers within structurally violent systems—such as rapid rises incommodity prices—with the only tool they have at their disposalwhen distressed: expressions of physical violence at the commu-nity level.

The corporate and state-level aversion to making this connec-tion is observable. A scan of the mining company press releasesregarding conflict at the community level reveals a preference formining companies to reserve the term violence only for physicalconfrontation, not for structural issues relating to justice, voice,fairness, participation, and related concepts that emerge as aresponse to structural violence. In other words, they do not labelany of their activities as causing or participating in structuralviolence. On the other hand, community organisers, news andsocial media are quick to use the term violence in a colloquial wayto characterise a range of mining-related conflicts. Their use of theterm does appear to be linked directly to, inter alia, such conceptsas justice, voice and fairness, as a response to mining activity. Theydo not use the academic term ‘structural violence’ but they dorespond to it with protests, complaints, and more. The aversion tousing the term ‘violence’ by one party, coupled with its usage byothers, has a tendency to inflame negative aspects of miningcompany–community conflict. Second, with the exception ofscholars such as Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, economistsand financial professionals have a tendency to follow in thefootsteps of Milton Friedman, who very carefully dissociated thevery human consequences of business and balance-sheet drivendecisions.

This is the nexus that has rich potential for more investigationand perhaps the development of strategies of rapid, proactiveresponse. As highlighted in Section 3, mining companies and hostgovernments with the capacity and will to respond to physicalviolence in conflict prone areas of the world have strategies and

Please cite this article in press as: C.J. Bond, P. Kirsch, Vulnerable popuphysical violence, Extr. Ind. Soc. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2

frameworks at the ready if they choose to use them. However,these areas of response are largely to do with war and situationsthat have the potential to escalate into war or large-scale violence.What this article is focusing on instead are areas that may or maynot be at risk of war but have potential to erupt into violence due tothe punctual or short-term, sharp rise in commodity prices. Theseare areas in the world badly affected by poverty, where the HumanDevelopment Index1 suggests a poor quality of living and wherebasic political, economic and social freedoms2 as well as humanrights3 are already at risk.

The preliminary research presented here suggests that theremay be a way to overlay these indices to identify which regions ofthe world are most vulnerable to stress due to human factors. Inaddition, it may be possible to expand the scope of the work thathas only just been started with the modest research excursis, aspresented here, to more sensitively model mining-related violenceand its relationship to spikes or sustained rises in commodityprices. With this modelling and an overlaying of risk factors, it maysubsequently be possible to predict where resources need to beredirected in order to reduce the stress on human beings who aretrying to take advantage of opportunities to reduce poverty andprovide for their loved ones. A Canadian research centre MICLA hasdeveloped an interactive, historical map of the conflicts in whichCanadian mining companies have been implicated.4 Perhaps thiskind of tool can be used as inspiration for what a predictive toolmight look like, especially across the Global South. Using thisinformation may make it easier to deploy food, water, medicalservices and shelter supplies to those regions in real time, when itis needed to prevent outbreaks of violence resulting in loss of lifeand grievous bodily injury.

For those who might say that this suggestion looks all too hard,that it is not possible to deploy those kinds of resources in astrategic way, we would point to a one dramatic example. TheKumbh Mela is the largest religious gathering in the world at theconfluence of what are considered three holy rivers: Ganga,Yamuna and Saraswati.5 As many as 100 million people converge tocelebrate. True, it is in roughly the same place each three years.However, the logistical challenges are constantly changing. If it ispossible to build a city with basic human supplies and services forthat many pilgrims, it must certainly be possible to use the samehuman ingenuity and creativity to devise ways to make availablethese same amenities for much smaller groups of people who areengaged in mining activities during times of significant price rises.

7. Conclusion

The urgency of addressing conflict in the mining context ismagnified when looking at the projected intensification ofpressures on relationships between mining companies andcommunities. Overall trends for the next twenty years (Deloitte,2011; Ernst and Young, 2012; KPMG, 2012; WEF, 2012) indicatethat industrial-scale mining is changing and will continue to beaffected by the structural issues that will put mining companiesand communities in direct conflict with one another on a range ofstructural and cultural issues. These mounting pressures have thepotential to increase the amount and intensity of conflict at thecommunity level. An increase in conflict will affect both the quality

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of community life as well as having the potential to delay or haltmining projects and operations in developed and developingcontexts around the world. When conflict becomes violent, it cantake decades to reverse the damage (e.g. >25 years of mine closureat Panguna, Denoon, 2000).

To date, it does not appear that there has been a systematicattempt to capture the quantity and intensity of physical violencethat occurs in mining related conflict around the globe asassociated with particular minerals. Data were collected for anarray of commodities in a variety of in-country contexts. Violenceincluded that related to workers, protestors and artisanal miners.This article opens up the possibility that the value of commodi-ties—especially when a rapid rise in price reflects greater globaldemand—has a tendency to escalate the potential for violentconflict to break out in vulnerable communities affected by mining.Further directions for research include a longitudinal study of20 years’ of mining conflict to evaluate more carefully the possibleconnection between commodity price and violence amongstvulnerable populations. Working collaboratively across platformsthat are already available to identify human vulnerabilities, it maybe possible to map mining affected regions against theseindicators. In so doing, the benefits of mining—rather than lossof life and limb—are more likely to be realised.

Finally, the value of a mined commodity is not the only factorthat needs to be considered in regard to mining affiliated violence.Throughout our sample, conflict, protest and violence related tomining have been associated with poverty, the resource curse,human (under) development, and livelihood availability (mostlylack thereof). In almost all the examples in the data set, artisanaland small-scale mining (ASM) was occurring in the vicinity of themines where violence erupted. As well, in broad general terms, theanecdotal impression that violence is associated with certainminerals in socio-economic-politically unstable zones holds. Usingthe tools already available to track these indicators, if marketfactors could be correlated, it may be possible to relieve local-leveldistress through humanitarian assistance and prevent loss of lifeand limb in relation to mining activities even before structuralcauses are fully addressed.

Acknowledgments

This article has benefitted from the input of Prof. Gavin Hilsonand two anonymous reviewers whose comments measurablyimproved the finished manuscript. In addition, the article was firstpresented in shorter format as a refereed paper, Violence per Ounce,at the Canadian Institute of Mining Conference in 2013. Theauthors of the current article gratefully acknowledges the referees,Meng Shi and the MISHC summer scholars (2012–13) for theirefforts supporting the development of that original paper whichmade this article possible.

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