Vulnerability of the Caribbean to Climate Change

Vulnerability of the Caribbean to Climate Change

The Coastal Zone of Belize

Carlos FullerCaribbean Community

Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)

Projected Temperature Rise

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

Projected Change in Precipitation

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Impacts of Climate Changein the Caribbean

• US Country Studies Programme

• GFDL, CCC, UKMO, GISS

• Temperature rise (1-2°C)

• Change in rainfall patterns (±10-20%)

• Sea level rise (4-50 cm)

Sea Level Rise

• Erosion• Coastal flooding• Inundation• Saltwater intrusion• Mangroves

• Tourist destinations• Human settlements• Water supply• Agriculture• Aquaculture• Fisheries

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone to Belize

Adapted from a presentation by:Ms. Tanya Williams

The Coastal Zone of Belize

Complex system comprised of:i. the barrier reefii. the three offshore atollsiii. hundreds of patch reefsiv. extensive seagrass bedsv. mangrove forestsvi. >1,000 cayes

The Coastal Zone

• Home to several endangered species such as:

i. the West Indian Manateeii. American crocodileiii. marine turtles and, iv. several birds

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Tourism

• 60% of the estimated 172,300 tourist arrivals in 1999 visited sites in the coastal zone.

• Approx. 7,000 employed in the industry.

• Single largest contributor to Belize’s economic growth.

Branching coral Brain coral

Coral bleaching events are expected to increase

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Fishing• Direct employment 2000

– 3000 employed per year.

• Indirect employment through processing, sales and maintenance.

• Subsistence fishing• In 1999, total financial

value was Bz$19.4 million

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Aquaculture

• Eight farms in operation 3,000 – 4,000 acres on pine ridge coastal lands.

• Generates approximately Bz$62.5 million

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Human Settlements

• Six of the ten major residential centers are located on the coast. (Belize City, San Pedro, Corozal, Dangriga, Punta Gorda, Ladyville)

• 45% of the population resides in coastal areas (1999).

Water Supply

• San Pedro– Desalination plant

• Placencia– Piped across lagoon

• Belize City– Supply located 17 miles inland– During drought, pumping limited to high tide– Salt water intrusion?

AVVA Vulnerability Analysis

• Entire coastline videotaped and analyzed in 1995

• Sea level rise of 4, 30 and 50 cm.

• Time periods of 25,50 and 100 yrs.

• Little impact in 25 yrs

• 50-100% of beaches lost in 100 yrs

Ultimate Adaptation Option

• Belize City destroyed in 1931 and 1961 by hurricanes

• New capital (Belmopan) created 50 miles inland

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Agriculture• Small scale farming on

riparian lands, coastal plains, etc to meet local needs.

• Sugar generated approximately Bz$84.5 million (2000).

• Citrus farming (Mullins River to South Stann Creek) Bz$76 million in 2000.

Picture: Government Press Office

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Agriculture continued• Banana (Sittee, South Stann Creek, Swasey and

Bladden Rivers) Bz$65 million.• Coastal communities of Corozal, Dangriga and

Independence heavily rely on these sectors

Vulnerability Studies in Agriculture

• 1995

• DSSAT

• Beans, corn and rice

• 1-2°C rise in temp

• ± 10-20% change in precip

• Result: 10-20% decline in yields

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Industry and Commerce

• Major centres located in the coastal zone (main centers – Independence, Belize City, Ladyville and the Corozal Commercial Free Zone).

• Employ a national total of approximately 5,600.• Garment industry generated approximately

Bz$40 million in 2000.

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Ports• Three main ports: Belize City, Commerce Bight and

Big Creek.• Commerce Bight – citrus products• Big Creek – banana

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Marine Dredging

• 1999 = 168,010 cubic yards of dredging. Primarily for landfill or for navigational purposes.(State of the Coast Report 1999)

• Most operations are related to tourism or real estate developments. (State of the Coastal Zone Report 1995)

Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone

Oil Drilling• No major commercial fields for oil found.• Exploratory wells have been drilled, both inland and

offshore.

Bioprospecting Exploration and extraction of biological

diversity to be used for genetic and biochemical resources.

Possible multi-million dollar industry

Amendment to Fisheries Act Chapter 210 of 2000 includes bioprospecting.

Requirements/Suggestions

• Downscaling of global climate models• Vulnerability studies of other economically

important crops – bananas, citrus, sugar• Integrated vulnerability studies - salt water

intrusion• Improve data collection

– Topography, bathymetry, microscale monitoring

• Implementation of “no regrets” adaptation measures– IWRM, ICZM, EIA, Disaster mitigation

Other Concerns

• Forestry– 1999-2000– Pine bark beetle infestation– 75% of pine forest destroyed– High temps & high humidity– Poor management– Climate change signal?– Needs analysis– Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity– Contributes to emissions