VULNERABILITIES OF VULNERABILITIES OF WATER WATER AVAILABILITY AND AGRICULTURE AVAILABILITY AND AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, TO CLIMATE CHANGE, YAKIMA RIVER BASIN, WASHINGTON YAKIMA RIVER BASIN, WASHINGTON U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey
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VULNERABILITIES OF WATER AVAILABILITY AND AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE,
VULNERABILITIES OF WATER AVAILABILITY AND AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, YAKIMA RIVER BASIN, WASHINGTON. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey. Start With Overview of Tools Used to Assess Global Warming. PRMS - USGS Watershed Model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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VULNERABILITIES OFVULNERABILITIES OF WATERWATER AVAILABILITY AND AGRICULTUREAVAILABILITY AND AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, TO CLIMATE CHANGE, YAKIMA RIVER BASIN, WASHINGTONYAKIMA RIVER BASIN, WASHINGTON
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Start With Overview of Tools Used to Assess Global Warming
PRMS - USGS Watershed Model
DPM - USGS Water-Budget Model
(Both Use a Daily Time-Step)
PRMS
DPM
Areas modeled for estimating current condition recharge for input to a regional groundwater model
DPM MODELS
PRMS MODELS
WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU WARM UP THE BASIN?
Methods :
1) GCM time-varying output modifying current climate
2) Look at temperature increase at some point in “time” and modify current climate
Either can use an effective change for all months or
a change that varies by month
FlintFlint
FlatheadFlathead
FeatherFeather
SpragueSprague
SagehenSagehenYampaYampa
EastEast
StarkweatherStarkweather
ClearClear
BlackearthBlackearth
SpringSpring
PomperaugPomperaug
CathanceCathanceYakimaYakima
Integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the
United StatesLauren Hay and Steven Markstrom (NRP/CR)
David Bjerklie (WSC/CT), Katherine Chase (WSC/MT), Robert Dudley (WSC/ME), John Fulton (WSC/PA),
Randy Hunt (WSC/WI), Anne Jeton (WSC/NV), Kathryn Koczot (WSC/CA, Mark Mastin (WSC/WA),
Richard Niswonger (WSC/NV), John Risley (WSC/OR), Kevin Vining (WSC/ND), and John Walker (WSC/WI)
From Hay and Mastin, USGS, 2008
EXAMPLE: GCM time-varying output modifying current climate
MASTIN, USGS, 2008
EXAMPLE: Look at temperature increase at some point in time and modify current climate
CASE: 2°C1981-2005
59% DECREASE
=
1.1 MILLION
ACRE-FEET
CHANGE FROM BASE:
Mean Annual Discharge
CASE: 2°C
BASE:1981-2005
Yakima River near Parker
0
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12000
Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep
Cle Elum Lake
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Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep
Bumping Lake
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Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep
Base Conditions
Plus One Scenario
Plus Two Scenario
Keechelus Lake
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Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep
SENSITIVITY OF RESERVOIR INFLOW AND RESULTING
STREAMFLOW TO 1°C AND 2°C WARMING
5000 cfs
Mastin, USGS, 2008
78% Storage upper basin
……to be added to historical trends already being to be added to historical trends already being observed in the region.observed in the region.
Dettinger and Cayan, 1995; Cayan et al., 2001
Stewart et al., 2005, Climate Change, V. 62
Lets Look at What is Already Occurring In the Basin
THIS EARLIER RUNOFF CAN BE SEEN BY COMPARING
AVERAGE HYDROGRAPHS FOR THE 1947-1976 PERIOD TO THE
POST-1976 PERIOD
THE 1976-1977 CHANGE REPRESENTS A REGIONAL SHIFT IN HYDROCLIMATE
REGIMES: POST-1976 HYDROGRAPHS DISPLAY A SUBDUED VERSION OF THE
PROJECTED GLOBAL CHANGES
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRL MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT
MONTH IN WATER YEAR
PE
RC
EN
T O
F M
EA
N A
NN
UA
L D
ISC
HA
RG
EYakima River at Martin (Inflow to Keechelus Lake)
AVE 1977-2008
AVE 1947-1976
Keechelus Lake
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Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep
REMEMBER THE 1°C WARMING
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1400
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
WATER YEAR
DIS
CH
AR
GE
MAY
APRIL
JUNE
MARCH
FEBRUARY
JULY
Mean Annual = 350 ft3/s, D.A. 170 square miles
TEANAWAY RIVERAPRIL 1-WATER RIGHT FOR 1ST IRRIGATION