VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 1 GW-VCU : DRAFT VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparison Jason R.W. Merrick (VCU) and J. Rene van Dorp (GW) August 9 th – 10 th , 2016 Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 1 GW-VCU : DRAFT
VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparison
Jason R.W. Merrick (VCU) and J. Rene van Dorp (GW)
August 9th – 10th, 2016
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 2
VTRA 2015 Study Area
GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
6 5
7
8
9
15
4 3
1
2 13
10
11
14
12
1. Buoy J 2. ATBA 3. WSJF 4. ESJF 5. Rosario 6. Guemes 7. Saddlebag 8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun. 10. PS North 11. PS South 12. Tacoma 13. Sar/Skagit 14. SJ Islands 15. Southern Gulf Islands
VTRA 2015 Waterway Zones
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 4 GW-VCU : DRAFT
VTRA 2015 Routes for What-If Case: KM - 348
CASE KM 348 VTRA 2015 Updated Case KM 348Tankers 348
Bunkering Support 17TOTAL WHAT-IF FOCUS VESSELS 365
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 5 GW-VCU : DRAFT
5% 5% 5%
90% 90% 90%
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)
VTRA 2015 – What If FV Scheduled Random Arrival Pattern Model
(See Example Graph below) Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison
Oil Spill Size Category: ALL SPILL SIZES
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 7 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
VTRA ‘15 Case: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 8 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft
VTRA '15: Base Case 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.C+G+A.Oil Loss: 100% of Base Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 9 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VTRA '15: KM-348 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.C+G+A.Oil Loss: 121% of Base Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 10 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
0.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
3.9%
4.7%
6.3%
8.9%
10.6%
10.8%
11.0%
11.5%
14.2%
16.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.6%
1.6%
4.5%
6.6%
7.3%
15.8%
10.6%
10.8%
10.4%
11.2%
28.9%
12.1%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.01Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.05
SJ Islands : 0.0% | x 0.93Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.96
Buoy J : +0.9% | x 2.48Georgia Str. : +0.6% | x 1.17
WSJF : +1.9% | x 1.40Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : +1.0% | x 1.16
ESJF : +6.9% | x 1.78PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 1.00Rosario : -0.6% | x 0.94
PS South : -0.3% | x 0.98Haro/Boun. : +14.8% | x 2.04
Guemes : -3.9% | x 0.76
% Base Case Pot. Oil (C+G+A) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Pot. Oil (C + G + A) Loss - ALL_FV
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 121% ( +21.2% | x 1.21) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 11 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
2.3%
3.0%
3.6%
3.7%
7.3%
7.8%
10.3%
13.3%
44.9%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
2.3%
3.2%
3.6%
3.8%
7.3%
8.5%
10.8%
13.1%
44.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.04
Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.10Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.02SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.09
Rosario : +0.2% | x 1.14Tac. South : 0.0% | x 1.00
ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.06Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.00
WSJF : +0.2% | x 1.04PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +0.6% | x 1.08Guemes : +0.6% | x 1.05
Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.1% | x 0.99PS South : -0.7% | x 0.99
% Base Case Pot. Accident Freq. (AF) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Pot. Accident (C+G+A) Frequency - ALL_FV
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 101% ( +1.1% | x 1.01) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 12 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 m3 or more
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 14 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
≈ 0.50% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 6,798 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 5,846 Metric. Tons)
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3 Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 15 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
≈ 0.97% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 4,770 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,102 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
0.0003%
0.0033%
0.0006%
0.0009%
0.0031%
0.0048%
0.0259%
0.0223%
0.0308%
0.0311%
0.0287%
0.0516%
0.0815%
0.1075%
0.1064%
0.0004%
0.0044%
0.0006%
0.0008%
0.0283%
0.0143%
0.0392%
0.0445%
0.0309%
0.0301%
0.2699%
0.2373%
0.0824%
0.1026%
0.087%
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30%
Sar/Skagit : +0.00% | x 1.19SJ Islands : +0.00% | x 1.34
ATBA : +0.00% | x 1.04Tac. South : 0.00% | x 0.88
Sthrn. Glf. Ils. : +0.03% | x 9.01Buoy J : +0.01% | x 2.98
Georgia Str. : +0.01% | x 1.51WSJF : +0.02% | x 2.00
PS North : +0.00% | x 1.01PS South : 0.00% | x 0.97
Haro/Boun. : +0.24% | x 9.39ESJF : +0.19% | x 4.60
Saddlebag : +0.00% | x 1.01Rosario : 0.00% | x 0.95
Guemes : -0.02% | x 0.82
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 0.97% ( +0.47% | x 1.95) VTRA '15: Base Case : 0.50%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 16 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
5,688
9,556
9,066
6,715
4,676
5,873
6,694
6,721
4,974
5,956
4,589
6,240
7,161
6,812
8,198
5,597
6,172
8,817
5,409
3,480
6,933
5,651
6,088
4,983
5,917
3,433
3,423
6,993
6,836
6,465
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Sar/Skagit : -91.1 | x 0.98SJ Islands : -3383.5 | x 0.65
ATBA : -249.1 | x 0.97Tac. South : -+1305.7 | x 0.81
Sthrn. Glf. Ils. : -1196.2 | x 0.74Buoy J : +1059.3 | x 1.18
Georgia Str. : -1042.9 | x 0.84WSJF : -633.5 | x 0.91
PS North : +8.9 | x 1.00PS South : -39.0 | x 0.99
Haro/Boun. : -1156.0 | x 0.75ESJF : -2816.9 | x 0.55
Saddlebag : -167.9 | x 0.98Rosario : +23.9 | x 1.00
Guemes : -1733.7 | x 0.79
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 4770 m3 ( -2028.5 | x 0.70) VTRA '15: Base Case : 6798 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 17 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 m3 - 2500 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 19 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.61% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,619 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,392 Metric Tons)
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3 Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 20 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.83% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,708 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,469 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
0.0003%
0.0038%
0.0003%
0.0013%
0.0177%
0.0038%
0.0279%
0.0201%
0.0609%
0.0348%
0.0670%
0.0516%
0.1302%
0.0486%
0.1429%
0.0003%
0.0041%
0.0003%
0.0013%
0.0214%
0.0058%
0.0316%
0.0345%
0.0606%
0.0344%
0.2455%
0.0633%
0.1357%
0.0472%
0.1493%
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30%
Sar/Skagit : +0.00% | x 1.06SJ Islands : +0.00% | x 1.07
ATBA : 0.00% | x 0.92Tac. South : 0.00% | x 1.00
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : +0.00% | x 1.21Buoy J : +0.00% | x 1.50
Georgia Str. : +0.00% | x 1.13WSJF : +0.01% | x 1.72
PS North : 0.00% | x 1.00PS South : 0.00% | x 0.99
Haro/Boun. : +0.18% | x 3.66ESJF : +0.01% | x 1.23
Saddlebag : +0.01% | x 1.04Rosario : 0.00% | x 0.97
Guemes : +0.01% | x 1.05
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 0.83% ( +0.22% | x 1.37) VTRA '15: Base Case : 0.61%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 21 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
1,389
1,294
1,562
1,246
1,625
1,641
1,599
1,603
1,398
1,464
1,443
1,462
1,793
1,717
1,715
1,451
1,314
1,616
1,246
1,716
1,654
1,602
1,754
1,398
1,469
1,830
1,561
1,782
1,733
1,706
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Sar/Skagit : +62.8 | x 1.05SJ Islands : +20.0 | x 1.02
ATBA : +54.0 | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0 | x 1.00
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : +90.5 | x 1.06Buoy J : +12.8 | x 1.01
Georgia Str. : +3.7 | x 1.00WSJF : +150.9 | x 1.09PS North : -0.3 | x 1.00
PS South : +4.9 | x 1.00Haro/Boun. : +387.0 | x 1.27
ESJF : +99.5 | x 1.07Saddlebag : -10.8 | x 0.99
Rosario : +15.7 | x 1.01Guemes : -9.2 | x 0.99
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident - ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 1708 m3 ( +89.5 | x 1.06) VTRA '15: Base Case : 1619 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 22 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1 m3 - 1000 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
Average of ≈ 47 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 295 Barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 24 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 54.2% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Draft
Average of ≈ 47 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 298 Barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 25 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 54.1% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
2.3%
11.4%
0.2%
2.6%
2.0%
5.5%
30.0%
8.3%
3.0%
0.6%
0.9%
3.6%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
2.4%
11.3%
0.2%
2.4%
2.0%
5.6%
29.4%
8.5%
3.1%
0.6%
1.0%
3.9%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.04SJ Islands : +0.0% | x 1.03
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.01
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.1% | x 0.99Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.03
Georgia Str. : -0.2% | x 0.93WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.01
PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00PS South : -0.6% | x 0.98
Haro/Boun. : +0.2% | x 1.02ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.01
Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.03Rosario : +0.2% | x 1.22Guemes : +0.4% | x 1.10
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 54.0% ( -0.2% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Base Case : 54.1%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 26 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
68
26
63
17
38
80
37
100
108
19
105
103
95
82
43
68
27
63
17
38
80
38
100
107
19
107
116
90
49
36
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Sar/Skagit : -0.5 | x 0.99SJ Islands : +1.1 | x 1.04
ATBA : -0.1 | x 1.00Tac. South : -+0.1 | x 0.99
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.6 | x 0.99Buoy J : -0.3 | x 1.00
Georgia Str. : +1.8 | x 1.05WSJF : +0.4 | x 1.00
PS North : -0.5 | x 1.00PS South : +0.0 | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +2.5 | x 1.02ESJF : +12.8 | x 1.12
Saddlebag : -5.3 | x 0.94Rosario : -32.3 | x 0.60
Guemes : -7.0 | x 0.84
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 47 m3 ( +0.5 | x 1.01) VTRA '15: Base Case : 47 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 27 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 0 m3 - 1 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.3 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 29 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3 Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill ( ≈ 2.4 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 30 GW-VCU : DRAFT
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.3 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 31 GW-VCU : DRAFT
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: BASE CASE
Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (= 2.2 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 32 GW-VCU : DRAFT
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
7%
39%
1%
62%
100%
16%
79%
80%
96%
100%
97%
73%
33%
43%
99%
7%
42%
1%
62%
100%
17%
79%
81%
96%
100%
97%
75%
34%
47%
99%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%
Sar/Skagit : +0.2% | x 1.03SJ Islands : +2.5% | x 1.07
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : -0.1% | x 1.00
Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : 0.0% | x 1.00Buoy J : +1.5% | x 1.09
Georgia Str. : +0.2% | x 1.00WSJF : +1.3% | x 1.02
PS North : +0.1% | x 1.00PS South : 0.0% | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +0.8% | x 1.01ESJF : +2.1% | x 1.03
Saddlebag : +0.6% | x 1.02Rosario : +4.4% | x 1.10Guemes : +0.2% | x 1.00
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 100.0% ( +0.0% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100.0%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 33 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
0.7
3.9
0.1
1.1
0.7
1.9
1.4
0.6
1.1
0.3
4.2
2.1
5.8
23.0
10.4
1.0
2.7
0.1
1.1
0.7
1.4
1.5
0.6
1.3
0.3
4.6
1.7
6.5
21.4
8.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Sar/Skagit : +0.3 | x 1.37SJ Islands : -1.2 | x 0.68
ATBA : 0.0 | x 0.97Tac. South : +0.0 | x 1.00
Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : +0.0 | x 1.06Buoy J : -0.4 | x 0.77
Georgia Str. : +0.0 | x 1.03WSJF : 0.0 | x 1.00
PS North : +0.2 | x 1.17PS South : +0.0 | x 1.01
Haro/Boun. : +0.4 | x 1.08ESJF : -0.4 | x 0.80
Saddlebag : +0.7 | x 1.12Rosario : -1.6 | x 0.93Guemes : -1.6 | x 0.84
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 2.2 gallons ( -0.1 | x 0.97) VTRA '15: Base Case : 2.3 gallons
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 34 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: All Spill Sizes
Summary Risk Comparison Draft
OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 TOTAL_OIL
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 42.0% 12.3% 45.3% 0.5% 100.0%
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% 0.01% 1.8% 98.2% 100.0%
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 6,798 1,619 46.9 0.01 1.8
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.05% 0.06% 7.5% 98.7% 98.8%
Probability of at least one accident in 10 year by spill size 0.50% 0.61% 54.2% 100.0% 100.0%
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.24% 1.52% 85.8% 100.0% 100.0%
OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 TOTAL_OIL
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 57.5% ( +15.46%| x1.37 ) 17.7% ( +5.42%| x1.44 ) 45.6% ( +0.31%| x1.01 ) 0.5% ( -0.01%| x0.98 ) 121.2% ( +21.2%| x1.21 )
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.02% ( +0.01%| x1.95 ) 0.02% ( +0.01%| x1.37 ) 1.8% ( -0.01%| x1.00 ) 99.3% ( +1.1%| x1.01 ) 101.1% ( +1.1%| x1.01 )
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 4771 ( -2028 | x0.70 ) 1708 ( +89 | x1.06 ) 47.4 ( +0.5 | x1.01 ) 0.01 ( 0.00 | x0.97 ) 2.2 ( +0.4 | x1.20 )
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.10% ( +0.05%| x1.95 ) 0.08% ( +0.02%| x1.37 ) 7.5% ( -0.03%| x1.00 ) 98.8% ( +0.06% | x1.00 ) 98.9% ( +0.06%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 10 year by spill size 0.97% ( +0.47%| x1.95 ) 0.83% ( +0.22%| x1.36 ) 54.1% ( -0.15%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 2.41% ( +1.16%| x1.94 ) 2.07% ( +0.55%| x1.36 ) 85.7% ( -0.12%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 )
VTRA
'15
BASE
CAS
EVT
RA '1
5 KM
- 34
8VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Summary Risk Comparison
Draft