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Voting III 4/3/2012
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Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Jan 02, 2016

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Page 1: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Voting III

4/3/2012

Page 2: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– identify and explain the role of formal and

informal institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States

Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas.

– to assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

Page 3: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Office Hours and Readings

• Chapter 4 (pp. 110-129)• Chapter 5

• Office Hours– Today 11-2– Wednesday 10-2

Page 4: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

DETERMINING POLITICAL OPINION

Page 5: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

America is Obsessed with Polling

• Why Polls– Raise issues– Gauge support– Get specific opinions

• Everyone Uses them– Candidates– Media– Elected officials

Page 6: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The GOP

Page 7: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

What is Sampling?

• selecting a representative part of a population

• To determine parameters of the whole population.

Page 8: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Concept of Sampling• Blood Tests

• Food Tests

Page 9: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Practicality of Sampling

• Time

• Money

• Size

Page 10: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent 200 Million?

• Responses Cancel each other out

• No New opinions are added

Page 11: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

PROBLEMS OF SAMPLING

Page 12: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

No Sample is Perfect

• All samples have error

• Large Samples= Less Error

Page 13: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.
Page 14: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters

Page 15: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Question Bias

• Leading Questions

• Double Barreled Questions

Page 16: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Liars

• Socially Acceptable Questions

• Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the Schoolyard– Don't tattle – Always make fun of those different from you. – Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone

feels exactly the same way you do.

Page 17: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Always Check

• Who sponsored the poll

• How they got the sample

• How big was the sample

Page 18: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

IS GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO PUBLIC OPINION

Page 19: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Do they Listen?

• Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the time

• Sometimes they do not listen to public opinion

Page 20: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Why Not?

• General vs. Intense opinion

• Voting vs. general public

• Opinion is only one form of participation

Page 21: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Opinions can change quickly

Page 22: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

We Give answers to anything

Page 23: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

We Know Why We Vote

Page 24: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?

Page 25: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Very Simple

Page 26: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

PARTY IDENTIFICATIONThe Long Term Factor

Page 27: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Party ID

• Psychological attachment to one of the parties

• Long Term Factor

• Best Predictor of Voting

• Influences other short-term factors

Page 28: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Cleveland Rocks

Page 29: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Party ID Rocks

Page 30: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

2008 Vote by Party ID

Page 31: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008

• Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain

• There are more Democrats in the electorate

• Obama wins

Page 32: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

ISSUE VOTINGThis is hard

Page 33: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Issue Voting is Hard

• We are clueless

• Too many issues

• We don’t trust or understand policy

Page 34: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Easy/Single Issue Voting

Page 35: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Most Important Issues in 2008

Page 36: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Retrospective Analysis

• Looking back at the economy

• Easier to do if there is an incumbent

Page 37: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Economy

• The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy

Page 38: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Economics

Page 39: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Economics

Page 40: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

CANDIDATE APPRAISALSWe Vote for Who We Like

Page 41: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Party Image

• Impacts our views of the candidate

• Very important for prospective voting

• McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

Page 42: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Republican Brand

Page 43: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Third Term

Page 44: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Retrospective voting on Bush

• Bush is Unpopular

Page 45: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.
Page 46: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

McCain Vs. Bush

• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

Page 47: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Candidate Image

• Try to create your own

• Use issues to your advantage

• Don’t Let the Media create one for you

Page 48: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Hope and Change

• A message that worked

• It meant everything and nothing at the same time

Page 50: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Hope as a message

Page 51: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Change

Page 52: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Bad Images

Page 53: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

THE ELECTION OF 2010

Page 54: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Results

Page 55: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Nationalized Election

• National factors trumped local factors for the third time

• This time around, these factors favored the GOP

• This Hurts Incumbents

Page 56: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Party ID Rules the Day

Page 57: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

People do not like Congress

Page 58: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Issues and 2010

Page 59: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Issues of 2010

Page 60: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue

Page 61: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

A Referendum on the Economy

Page 62: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Unemployment

Page 63: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Health Care Opinion Remained Divided

Page 64: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

A Referendum on Obama

Page 65: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010

Page 66: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Tea Party Movement

• Unique in that they do not want anything from government

• Very Motivated

• Angry at Government

Page 67: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

Page 68: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Tea party was a Popular Movement

Page 69: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

With Motivated Voters on Election Day

Page 70: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

BETTING ON OBAMAThe odds in 2012

Page 71: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Campaign Finance

• $1,000,000,000

• Independent Expenditures as Well

• Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this

Page 72: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

The Electoral College

Page 73: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Popular on the Left

• Strong Support Among Democrats

• Very popular among key constituencies

• Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

Page 74: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Overall Popularity Close To 50%

Page 75: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Unemployment is Lower

Page 76: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

GDP Growth

Page 77: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Figure 9.4 Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008

Page 78: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the

Republican Map

Page 79: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTEVoting in a Comparative Perspective

Page 80: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.
Page 81: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Why so high elsewhere?

• Compulsory voting

• Fewer Elections

• PR systems and MMD

Page 82: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA

• Easier To Register

• A National two-party system

• A better-educated population

Page 83: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of

Participation

Page 84: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD

Page 85: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Why Low turnout is bad

• Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do

• Voting levels the playing field

• Voting is essential for democracy to succeed

Page 86: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Why Low Turnout is not that bad

• Low Turnout is actually a good thing

• People are not voting for the wrong candidate

• Stability in the System

• Voting is only one way of participation

Page 87: Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.

Ways to Increase Turnout

• Continue to Lower Costs– Mandatory voting– Same Day Registration– Mail and Internet voting– Weekend Voting– Holiday Voting