Charles Vorosmarty US Arctic Research Commission Finland Arctic Advisory Board May 22, 2014 The US Arctic Research Commission: an overview & Thoughts on Synthesis Studies and the Need for Integrated Earth System Science Perspectives
Charles VorosmartyUS Arctic Research CommissionFinland Arctic Advisory Board
May 22, 2014
The US Arctic Research Commission: an overview
&Thoughts on Synthesis Studies and the Need for Integrated
Earth System Science Perspectives
FRANCE CORDOVA
‐Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1984‐Executive Order 12501 (‘85 Pres. Reagan)
•Created USARC and IARPC (Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee)
•Defined their roles and responsibilities
•White House (OSTP & OMB) shall coordinate and review Arctic research budget requests and address icebreakers
USARC’s duties:• Develop national Arctic research policy• Facilitate Arctic research cooperation (w/IARPC)• Review federal Arctic research programs• Recommend improvements for data sharing• Facilitate cooperation w/Alaska & internationally
Kivalina, AK9/15/09
‐Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1984‐Executive Order 12501
(‘85 Pres. Reagan)
Created USARC and IARPC (Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee)
“Goals Report”5 major research themes for 2013‐14
• Environmental Change• Arctic Human Health• Civil Infrastructure• Natural Resource Assessment & Earth Science
• Indigenous Languages, Identities, Cultures
Other USARC products & services
Self‐subscribe to newsletter at www.arctic.gov
Other USARC products & services
• Sea ice and marine ecosystems• Terrestrial ice and ecosystems• Atmospheric studies• Observing systems• Regional climate models• Adaptation tools for sustaining communities• Human health
U.S. to Take Chairmanship of Arctic Council: 2015‐17
Easy to ConnectScenarios to the 7 U.S. Arctic Research Themes
Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programsthrough the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office. Co-sponsored by theInternational Arctic Research Center (IARC) / University of Alaska Fairbanks,and the International Study of Arctic Change (IARC).
Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the
Arctic System Lessons from the NSF-FreshWater
Integration (FWI) Project
Charles Vörösmarty
EXAMPLE OF RECOGNIZED SYNTHESIS: NSF FreshWater Integration Study (FWI)
• 5-year effort w/ 22-funded FWI Projects• $30M portfolio (land/atmos/ocean/social
dimensions) • Project Office at UNH (PI: Vörösmarty, co-I: Hinzman)
• >100 peer-reviewed publications
• >>100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums
• > 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students
• Organizing framework of FWI was the full pan-arctic drainage basin
• Well-bounded component of the larger Earth system
• The most land-dominated of all ocean basins
• Has clear connections to the global ocean and climate systems
Yet another boundary: BiogeophysicalPan-Arctic Watershed
Arctic Research Policy Act
Having a “Unifying Concept” EssentialThe Hydrologic Cycle Links Every Major
Component of the Arctic System
• Physics• Biology• Biogeochemistry
• Human-induced change
• Natural variability• Human vulnerability
.… and central to the analysis of:
Science Focal Points Also Essential…and Essential to Maintain These Throughout
Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches
Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying?
Q2: If So, Why?
Q3: What Are the Implications on the Earth system and humans?
0°
60° 120°
180°
240°
300°
360°
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
0°
60° 120°
180°
240°
300°
360°
Longitude Longitude
Coverage or Quality
GoodPoor
Year
• Spatially/temporally patchy• Quality: High to Low• Challenging to explain in aggregate
SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING
1900-70
Paleo
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
Paleo
1900-70
INDUCTIVE PATHSpecific to General
DEDUCTIVE PATH General to Specific
• Spatially/temporally contiguous• Physically-consistent but incomplete• Gap-filling
SYNERGY BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED OUTPUTS
Observations Model Outputs
The Search for Coherence between Models/Obs
Example: CCSM3 Modeled Eurasian River trend over 20th
century = 6.7e-3 Sv/century (2.11 km3/yr)Results in 7% increase in Eurasian river flow
over the centuryAgrees well with observed trends discussed by
Peterson et al. (2002) (12%, 2.05 km3/yr)
Dat
a G
ap
Value of These Principles:2002: Baseline stocks & fluxes of fresh water largely educated guesswork
• Major uncertainties • Budget “unbalanced / unclosed”
• NATO ASI: FW Budget of the Arctic Ocean
2006: Baseline stocks & fluxes of fresh water largely quantified
• Budget exercise motivated an unprecedented synthesis of literature, observation, and model-based knowledge
• Budget closes w/in error bounds of observations
• Several sub-domains successfully quantified
• Time variations recognized as next big challenge
Serreze et al. 2006, JGR-Oceans
CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group
White et al. JGR, Biogeosciences 2008
Documenting the basic character of
Example: Permafrost lakes
Smith et al. 2005
CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group
Rawlins et al., J. Climate (2010)
Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle
Data synthesis and modeling--not quite as easy as it may seem--long-term coherent time series are more than ever critical
CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group
Francis et al. 2009. J. Geophysical Research
Feedbacks & implications on major subsystems thru heuristic scenarios
Heuristic modeling approach to identify the major actors & their links--agents of --recipients of --feedbacks
defined by closed loops
Major findings--many of the feedbacks are positive
--many benefit productivity of ecosystems & human well-being
CONTRIBUTION TO IIASA/AACA ARCTIC FUTURES EFFORT
• Heuristic model first –extend to “biogeochemical Nexus”: H2O,carbon, energy, nutrient cycles
• Then Intermediate Complexity Models• Build toward more formal Arctic Earth Systems model
IIASA/AACSMODELS AND SCENARIOS
Emphasis on Human Systems, Technology, Development Trajectories
Earth System Dynamics, Feedbacks, Tipping Points
COUPLED HUMAN-EARTH
SYSTEM RESPONSE
CONTRIBUTION TO IIASA / AACA ARCTIC FUTURES EFFORT
Arctic ESM
IIASA/AACSMODELS AND
SCENARIOS AND POLICY-
ENGAGEMENT
IMPACTS OF POLICY ON
EARTH SYSTEM
Observatories for Tracking
ESM-Compatible Framework
IMPACTS OF EARTH SYSTEM FEEDBACKS TO
POLICYopportunitiesconstraints
design, optimizationAMAP links
• Mean land PPT 2-3% globally over last century• Winners/losers
• Variability increasing
2011 NRC Committee on HydrologicSciences Report on Climate and Hydrology Extremes
Major disconnect between climate and hydrologic sciences AND the management community…design of effective climate adaptation strategies will remain unrealized (cf. America’s Climate Choices).THE REASONS:
--Nomenclature, even among the scientists, is wildly different
--Planning based on statistical stationarity no longer in play, alternatives not yet available
--Planning horizon mismatch to signal-to-noise in climate models
Co-Design Will Be Criticale.g. from United States
International Workshop on the Transfer of Science to Decision Making
in the Arena of The Changing Ice-Snow-Water Nexus
Science Workshop (1.5 days)plus Policy Forum and Private Sector Dialogue
GOALS: (1) Identify key obstacles (science, cultutral, cognitive, bureacratic) to the knowledge transfer
(2) Link to research opportunities(3) Create an ongoing dialogue space
Dates: September 2014 (specific dates TBD)Venue: World Bank, Washington, DC
• Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic hydrologic system
• Many changes coincident with accelerated hydrologic cycle
• Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated hemispheric change to diversified local-scale change
• Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for analyzing behavior of the fully linked water system
• Limits arise from incomplete data, model components, and approaches for linking these
http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/
Lessons from the US National Science FoundationFreshWater Integration (FWI) Study: SCIENCE
• Integration doesn’t just happen: Resources/thinking needed to integrate otherwise independent studies
• Consensus-building: Needs coordinating structure w/ suitable balance of top-down & bottom-up approaches
• Shared sense of purpose: Clearly-stated, finite set of science questions & policy themes
• Focal points/concrete targets: Formulate active Working Groups with time tables for specific WG products
http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/
Lessons from the US National Science FoundationFreshWater Integration (FWI) Study:
EXECUTING SYTHESIS