Voluntary Training Program 2012 Climate change and shipping.

Voluntary Training Program 2012

Climate change and shipping

Marine Environmental Awareness Course

Outline

The greenhouse effect and the Earth’s climate system

The …human element in climate:

Emissions of greenhouse gases

How is climate changing?

Impacts

Climate change and the Mediterranean

Regulations on the energy efficiency of ships


The greenhouse effect and

the Earth’s climate system


All components of the earth system are heated by the absorbed energy and emit part of it as long-wave

(infrared) radiation.

Trace gases in the earth’s atmosphere (greenhouse

gases) re-absorb most of the outgoing infrared radiation and

sent it back to earth.

About 30% of the incoming solar radiation is directly reflected by the atmosphere (clouds,

dust particles, aerosols) and the earth surface

The greenhouse effect

The rest 70% is absorbed by the atmosphere, oceans and land

Natural GHGs

Carbon Dioxide CO2

Methane CH4

Nitrous Oxide N2O

Water Vapour H2O


The greenhouse effect: too much of a good thing…

The Earth thanks to the greenhouse effect

Average temperature 14 oC

The Earth with enhanced greenhouse effect

Average temperature >14.5 oC(so far…)

Average temperature -18 oC

The Earth without the greenhouse effect


Global distribution of solar energy input

Mean annual global insolation


Redistributing heat throughout the globe:

the global ocean conveyor belt…


The Earth’s climate system components


Climate changes constantly over various timescales due to natural

variability…Temperature change from present, oC

Source: NOAA


The …human element in climate:

Emissions of greenhouse gases



Greenhouse gasesConcentration

(1750)Concentration

(2009)Increase

Warming potential

RF

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6%

Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1803 ppb 158% 21 18.1%

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 270 ppb 322.5 ppb 19% 310 6.3%

F-gases (CFCs,HFCs,SF6)

- 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12%

Human-induced increases in GHGsSource: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)


CO2 (ppm)


(1750)Concentration

(2009)Increase

Warming potential

RF


280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6%




- 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12%

Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Human-induced increases in GHGs


CH4 (ppb)


(1750)Concentration

(2009)Increase

Warming potential

RF


280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6%




- 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12%




N2O (ppb)


(1750)Concentration

(2009)Increase

Warming potential

RF


280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6%




- 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12%



Marine Environmental Awareness Course Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)


(1750)Concentration

(2009)Increase

Warming potential

RF


280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6%




- 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12%




Model simulations show clearly that

temperature increase since 1950 is induced by human activities

The human element…


Sources of CO2 emissions

74%(thousands tones)

26%(thousands tones)

Power production, industrial activities, transports

Changes in land use, deforestation, urbanization


CO2 emissions per sector (2007)

Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2009

870 million tones


How is climate changing?


Source: NOAA


Global warming…


Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise…

Alaska, Muir Glacier

13 August 1941

31 August 2004










Changes in rainfall patterns…


Increased frequency of extreme weather events


Impacts



Marine environment and climate change

Warming (up to 3000 m depth)

Changes in salinity

Disturbance of ocean currents (conveyor belt)

Blue bars: change between 1961 – 2003Red bars: change between 1993 - 2003

Source: IPCC



Warming (up to 3000 m depth)

Changes in salinity

Disturbance of ocean currents (conveyor belt)

Acidification


CO2 + H2O H2CO3

H2CO3 H+ + HCO3

-

H+ + CO32- HCO3

-

CaCO3 Ca2+ + CO32-



Habitat lossesMarine environment and climate change

Coral bleaching

Changes in the life cycle and distribution of many species, increased risk of species invasions, biodiversity losses


Changes in wind conditions, average wave height, sea ice coverage, sea level etc. have serious implications for shipping and related infrastructure.



Focus on the Mediterranean


As a general trend, over the last decades Mediterranean climate has become progressively hotter and drier

Average summer temperature has increased up to 3 οC

Average winter precipitation has decreased by 20%


Droughts, summer heat waves and fires have increased both in frequency

and intensity and are expected to worsen in the near future, resulting in widespread desertification of the area



Lack of freshwater, especially during the summer period, is a major threat for an area representing

less than 3% of the global freshwater reservoir and hosting 50% of the global population already

suffering from limited access to water resources.



Meditteranean sea is getting warmer: surface temperatures have increased 0.8 – 1.4 oC and deep water (>250 m)

has become 0.12 oC warmer. Changes in circulation are already observed



Water resources at stake…


Warming of sea water favors and accelerates the migration and expansion of introduced species of tropical origin (>600 in the Eastern Mediterranean)

northwards and westwards



A glimpse to the future…

Climate system is complex…

Human society is even more complex…

Naturally, projections of future climate change show huge deviations


Regulations on the energy efficiency of ships


Shipping is by far the most energy efficient mode of transport…

Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2009


But there is still great potential (and need) for improvement…

World seaborne trade (billion tonne miles)


Regulations on energy efficiency of ships (new chapter 4 of MARPOL Annex VI) are expected to enter into force on 1 January 2013

Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI)

Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)

new ships over 400 GRT

all ships over 400 GRT


Energy efficiency design index (EEDI)

(grams CO2 / capacity * nautical mile)




Indicative baseline for a certain ship type

Required reduction (x%)

10% reduction for ships built between 2015 – 2020

20% reduction for ships built between 2020 – 2025

30% reduction for ships built after 2025




Self – evaluation & improvement

Monitoring

Implementation

Planning




Monitoring

Implementation

Planning

Improved voyage planningWeather routingJust in timeSpeed optimizationOptimized shaft powerOptimum trimOptimum ballastOptimum propeller and propeller inflowHull maintenancePropulsion system maintenanceImproved fleet management and energy management.........

Some possible practices for fuel-efficient operation of ships Resolution MEPC.213(63)




Monitoring

Implementation

Planning

Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI)




Monitoring

Implementation

Planning

Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI)

Actual fuel consumption x Ccarbon (g CO2 / g fuel)

Actual cargo transported x distance travelled ΕΕΟΙ =

Ccarbon

3,206

3,151

3,114

2,968

2,931

Ccarbon

3,206

3,151

3,114

2,968

2,931


Thank you for your attention!

Questions

Voluntary Training Program 2012 Climate change and shipping.

Documents

greenhouse effect slide

ghgs slide

shipping slide

noaa slide

earths climate system

trace gases

fgases cfcs

annual global insolation