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Volume 9, Number 9 September 2015 thereasoner.org ISSN 1757-0522 Contents Editorial 74 Features 74 News 77 What’s Hot in . . . 78 Events 79 Courses and Programmes 80 Jobs and Studentships 80 Editorial Welcome to the September issue of The Reasoner. This month’s interview is with Michael Esfeld, Professor of Philosophy of Science at the University of Lau- sanne. For some time Michael has combined distinctive themes in metaphysics with a particular ap- proach to the philosophy of quan- tum mechanics: A dispositionalist (as opposed to Humean) approach to metaphysics (see e.g., “Humean metaphysics versus a metaphysics of powers”, in G. Ernst and A. uttemann (eds.), Time, Chance and Reduction, Cambridge Univer- sity Press 2010), the Primitive On- tology approach to the interpretation of quantum mechanics (see e.g., with Dustin Lazarovici, Vincent Lam, and Mario Hu- bert, “The physics and metaphysics of primitive stu”, forth- coming in the British Journal for the Philosophy of Science), and a form of structural realism (see e.g., “How to account for quantum non-locality: ontic structural realism and the primi- tive ontology of quantum physics”, forthcoming in Synthese). I spoke to Michael after this year’s Philosophy of Physics sum- mer school in the Black Forest—the third such event that he has run with colleagues from Germany and Switzerland. Previous years were on physics and philosophy of time, and on probabil- ity in physics. This year’s theme was Ontology, which oered a fascinating mixture of physicists, philosophers of physics, and metaphysicians. George Darby University of Oxford Features Interview with Michael Esfeld George Darby: How did you get into philosophy? Michael Esfeld: I started with history and took philosophy as a minor out of curiosity, then became fascinated by the questions philosophy seeks to answer and the method of answering fundamental questions by argument instead of simply expressing an opinion. GD: How did you get into metaphysics of physics? (Is that the right way to describe your research?) ME: I see myself as doing metaphysics tout court. Meta- physics, in Aristotle, comes after physics and is continuous with physics. Since Newton, we’ve fundamental and universal physical theories at our disposal, that is, theories that are irreducible to other theories and whose dynamical laws apply to everything in the universe. The task of metaphysics then is to spell out what there is fundamentally in the world, if 74
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Page 1: Volume 9, Number 9 September 2015 - University of Kent

Volume 9, Number 9September 2015

thereasoner.orgISSN 1757-0522

Contents

Editorial 74

Features 74

News 77

What’s Hot in . . . 78

Events 79

Courses and Programmes 80

Jobs and Studentships 80

Editorial

Welcome to the September issue of The Reasoner. Thismonth’s interview is with MichaelEsfeld, Professor of Philosophy ofScience at the University of Lau-sanne. For some time Michaelhas combined distinctive themes inmetaphysics with a particular ap-proach to the philosophy of quan-tum mechanics: A dispositionalist(as opposed to Humean) approachto metaphysics (see e.g., “Humeanmetaphysics versus a metaphysicsof powers”, in G. Ernst and A.Huttemann (eds.), Time, Chanceand Reduction, Cambridge Univer-sity Press 2010), the Primitive On-tology approach to the interpretation of quantum mechanics(see e.g., with Dustin Lazarovici, Vincent Lam, and Mario Hu-

bert, “The physics and metaphysics of primitive stuff”, forth-coming in the British Journal for the Philosophy of Science),and a form of structural realism (see e.g., “How to account forquantum non-locality: ontic structural realism and the primi-tive ontology of quantum physics”, forthcoming in Synthese). Ispoke to Michael after this year’s Philosophy of Physics sum-mer school in the Black Forest—the third such event that he hasrun with colleagues from Germany and Switzerland. Previousyears were on physics and philosophy of time, and on probabil-ity in physics. This year’s theme was Ontology, which offered afascinating mixture of physicists, philosophers of physics, andmetaphysicians.

George DarbyUniversity of Oxford

Features

Interview with Michael EsfeldGeorge Darby: How did you get into philosophy?

Michael Esfeld: I started with history and took philosophyas a minor out of curiosity, then became fascinated by thequestions philosophy seeks to answer and the method ofanswering fundamental questions by argument instead ofsimply expressing an opinion.

GD: How did you get into metaphysics of physics? (Is that theright way to describe your research?)

ME: I see myself as doing metaphysics tout court. Meta-physics, in Aristotle, comes after physics and is continuouswith physics. Since Newton, we’ve fundamental and universalphysical theories at our disposal, that is, theories that areirreducible to other theories and whose dynamical laws applyto everything in the universe. The task of metaphysics thenis to spell out what there is fundamentally in the world, if

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these physical theories are on the right track. I got into themetaphysics of physics, because when studying the historyof philosophy and contemporary metaphysics, I realized thatneither the ideas developed by the great thinkers of the pastnor armchair reflection can on their own deliver answers to thequestions of what there is fundamentally in the universe andwhat holds the universe together: they provide guidelines forthe search for answers to these questions, but the answers haveto come out of physics.

GD: Could you tell us a bit about the key influences on yourresearch direction?

ME: I did my PhD on Hobbes. I was fascinated by the earlymodern natural philosophers—such as Descartes, Hobbes,Newton, Leibniz—who were great scientists and philosophersat the same time, without there being any separation betweenscience and philosophy in their work. A particularly clearexample is Newton’s Principia, where Newton constructs whatthen becomes classical mechanics on the basis of setting outfirst an answer to fundamental questions such as what is space,time, matter and motion. The point then is that Newton’sanswer to these questions has direct consequences for theaxioms of his physical theory, which, in turn, has empiricallytestable consequences. So you get an empirical theory basedon first principles about what there is in the universe and howwhat there is hangs together. To my mind, natural philosophyin this sense is the way in which one should do both physicsand metaphysics. Then I wondered how quantum physics,notably quantum entanglement, fits into the picture. That ishow I got into holism and then structural realism.

GD: You advocate a dispositionalist theory in metaphysics,a form of structural realism in philosophy of science, and aprimitive ontology approach to physics. Could you explain forour readers a little about these, and how they interact?

ME: The primitive ontology approach identifies the objectsphysics talks about, such as particles. Recall that all ex-perimental evidence in fundamental physics is evidence ofparticles—from dots on a display to traces in a cloud chamber.Entities that are notparticles—such as waves orfields—come in as figuringin the explanation of thebehaviour of the particles,but they are not themselvespart of the experimentalevidence. So there is a goodprima facie reason to takethe commitment to particlesseriously. However, it is nota good idea to regard theparticles as being equippedwith intrinsic properties.This idea is already debat-able in classical physics, andit breaks down completelyin quantum physics, for even the paradigm candidates forintrinsic properties such as mass and charge are situated onthe level of the quantum state; due to entanglement, it is notpossible to attribute a quantum state to the particles taken

individually. However, it would be misguided to concludethat the basic physical objects are Lockean bare substrata.They are structurally individuated, namely by the relations inwhich they stand. The first and foremost candidates for suchrelations are the spatial or spatiotemporal ones. Recall againthat all measurements come down to position measurements.Thus, the spatial or spatiotemporal relations individuate thebasic physical objects, and the dynamical relations—such asthe relations of entanglement incorporated in the quantumstate—tell us how the spatial or spatiotemporal relationsevolve. That is why these latter relations are modal: if oneis committed to them, they are dispositions or powers, fixinghow an initial configuration of basic physical objects evolves.Hence, in brief, there are basic physical substances such aspoint particles, but all there is to these substances are therelations in which they stand. There is no need for propertiesin the sense of intrinsic properties in physics or metaphysics.Some relations individuate these substances, namely the spatialor spatiotemporal ones, while others, namely the dynamicalones, are dispositions or powers in that they fix how theconfiguration of spatially related substances evolves.

GD: You’ve defended Humeanism against the charge that it isincompatible with nonseparability, yet reject it for more purelyphilosophical reasons. Can you tell us something about thisphilosophical debate, as you see it?

ME: The argument from quantum nonseparability or entan-glement to a refutation of Humeanism is a paradigm exampleof a naıve, superficial reading of the formalism of a physicaltheory: if one subscribes to an ontological commitment to therelations of quantum entanglement, then these are modal asmentioned in the answer to the previous question, thus don’t fitinto a Humean framework. However, the physics by itself doesnot impose such a commitment upon us. The reason is that therelations of quantum entanglement are dynamical, they tell ussomething about the development of any given configurationof quantum objects. But they cannot individuate these objects:the quantum state is defined on configuration space, that is,the mathematical space each of whose points represents apossible configuration of particles in physical space. That iswhy the quantum state cannot individuate the quantum objects:it presupposes a configuration of quantum objects to which itis applied. The spatial relations are available to individuatethese objects. But then the spatiotemporal distribution ofthe quantum objects can serve as the Humean mosaic, andthe quantum state can supervene on that distribution as awhole. So the alleged refutation of Humeanism by quantumentanglement comes down to putting anti-Humeanism in andgetting anti-Humeanism out. Although I’ve argued in favourof dispositionalism, I don’t have a firm grip on the issue ofHumeanism vs. a stance that endorses objective modality suchas dispositionalism. If you defend, as I do, a basic ontologyof permanent particles that are structurally individuated, thenthere are clear physical consequences for what you’ve to sayabout classical physics, quantum mechanics, quantum fieldtheory, relativity physics—and if the physics doesn’t come outright, then you’ve to go over the metaphysical books of yourbasic ontology. However, the story that employs a fundamentalontology of permanent particles in order to make sense of ourbest physical theories seems to be the same independently ofwhether you adopt a Humean or an anti-Humean attitude with

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respect to the dynamical structure of these physical theories,and then one is back to the usual metaphysical stalematebetween Humeanism and anti-Humeanism. That’s why Isearch for physical consequences that can have an impact onthis issue. I first thought that quantum entanglement is sucha physical consequence, but then realized that the argumentis fallacious. I now think that the open physical topic of arelativistic quantum dynamics may turn out to be a field wherewe can see concrete physical consequences of Humeanismand anti-Humeanism so that we can assess these metaphysicalstances in the light of distinct physical consequences that gowith each of them.

GD: Do you find scientists interested in these kinds of philo-sophical questions?

ME: Those who care about ontology in physics and who takephilosophical argument seriously, such as the contemporaryBohmians in quantum physics with whom I collaborate. Butmany more should care: the quantum measurement problem,for instance, is a physical problem in the first place, not aphilosophical one. It is the very problem of having a consistentphysical theory of quantum mechanics at one’s disposal. That’swhy everybody doing quantum physics should care about it.

GD: You’ve also written on consciousness and mentalcausation—what is the connection to your other work? (Isthere a ‘hard problem’ in the philosophy of physics?!)

ME: The mind is part of the natural world. Mental causationmakes this evident: my mental states cause some of themovements of my body. So mental causation should squarewith what physics tells us about the motion of objects in space.I don’t see an analogy with the hard problem of consciousness.In philosophy of physics, you can set out the issues in a clearmanner and work out the consequences. In the consciousnessor qualia problem, it is not easy to set out what exactly theissue is and whether there is an issue at all. Nonetheless, thereis a sort of holism in both philosophy of mind and philosophyof physics, and the two cases can be usefully comparedwith each other: in both cases, there’s a set of objects and astructure defined on that set of objects in terms of a networkof relations among these objects, with the relations being thatwhat individuates the objects in question—inference relationswhen it comes to thoughts, spatial relations when it comes tophysical objects.

GD: Do you have any recommendations for those starting outin the area?

ME: Start with the relevant entries in the Stanford encyclo-pedia of philosophy, read a companion or introductory bookthat presents the state of the art in an accurate way, then goto the classics, such as Bell’s Speakable and Unspeakablein Quantum Mechanics. Be sceptical whenever someoneclaims that physics as such shows this or that: there always isa—debatable—ontological presupposition behind such claims,and it is our task to assess these presuppositions.

GD: What is the next project? And the topic for the nextsummer school?

ME: Set out the case for a fundamental ontology of structurallyindividuated particles and its consequences for the whole ofcontemporary physics in a book with collaborators from math-ematical physics so that it can be clearly evaluated what this on-tology achieves and what are its drawbacks. The next summerschool in July 2016 will follow up with this year’s topic, focus-ing on the meaning of the wave function in our understandingof quantum physics.

An Epistemically Modest Response to Disagree-ment, AGM-ifiedAGM belief revision theory—named after the foundersAlchourron, Gardenfors, andMakinson—provides a for-mal framework for modelingbelief change (Alchourron etal. 1985: ‘On the logicof theory change: Partialmeet contraction and revi-sion functions’, Journal ofSymbolic Logic 50(2): 510–530). In the theory, be-liefs are represented by sen-tences from a propositionallanguage L that is closed un-der the connectives ¬, ∧, ∨, →, and↔. A collection of beliefrepresenting sentences B is referred to as a belief set, whichis assumed to be (i) closed under logical consequence and (ii)logically consistent. That is, B = Cn(B), where Cn(B) denotesthe set of all logical consequences of B, and ϕ ∧ ¬ϕ < B for allϕ.

One type of belief change studied in the AGM theory is therational removal of a belief from a belief set without the in-troduction of any new information. This kind of belief changeis modeled by partial meet contraction or simply contraction.Formally, contracting a belief set B by a sentence p results inthe following belief set

B ÷ p := ∩γ(B⊥p). (1)

The contracted belief set in (1) is defined as the intersection ofselected maximal subsets of B that fail to imply p. The selectedsubsets are determined by a function γ, which selects a class ofthe most important maximal subsets of the remainder set, B⊥p(Alchourron et al. 1985: 511).

In order to retain as many beliefs from B as possible whilegiving up p, the contraction operator ÷ is constrained by a setof basic rationality postulates.

B ÷ p = Cn(B ÷ p) (÷Closure)If p < Cn(�), then p < Cn(B ÷ p). (÷S uccess)B ÷ p ⊆ B (÷Inclusion)If p < Cn(B), then B ÷ p = B. (÷Vacuity)If Cn(p) = Cn(q), then B ÷ p = B ÷ q. (÷Preservation)B ⊆ (B ÷ p) + p (÷Recovery)

The rationality postulates require an individual to only give upbeliefs necessary to ensure (i) and (ii). Consequently, an indi-vidual’s belief set is minimally changed in contraction.

Belief retraction typically occurs in the instances when anindividual loses her faith in a particular belief and when the in-

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dividual revises her set of beliefs. But another instance whenbelief retraction may occur is in a peer disagreement. In thephilosophical literature on disagreement, Richard Feldman hasclaimed that epistemic peers should respond to a disagreementby suspending judgment on the propositions in dispute (2007:‘Reasonable religious disagreements’, in Louise Antony (ed.),Philosophers Without Gods: Meditations on Atheism and theSecular, New York: Oxford University Press, 194–214). Themodest response may be justified on the grounds that epistemicpeers fail to have any basis for thinking that one is less likelyto be mistaken than the other (see Christensen 2007: ‘Episte-mology of disagreement: The good news’, The PhilosophicalReview 116(2): 187–217; Elga 2007: ‘Reflection and disagree-ment’, Nous 41(3): 478–502). Since neither peer has a suffi-cient reason for dismissing the other’s opinion, the disagree-ment ought to prompt both parties to give up their beliefs andsuspend judgment for the time being. In the event that peersrespond to a disagreement in this epistemically modest way, Isuggest that the doxastic adjustment can be modeled, on be-half of each peer, by contraction. But before showing that con-traction appropriately represents the belief change that Feldmanhas proposed, let us first motivate the modest view with a sim-ple example.

Suppose that it is cold and flu season and John is feeling un-der the weather. He visits his physician, One, who happens tobe accompanied that day by an equally competent colleague,Two. The physicians observe that John has symptoms of a mildfever. One believes that if John has symptoms of a mild fever,then he has the flu while Two believes that if John has symp-toms of a mild fever, then he does not have the flu. As a re-sult, One believes that John has the flu while Two believes thathe does not. Although the physicians share the same evidenceon this occasion, they end up with opposing beliefs regardingJohn’s flu status. Given that One and Two are equally compe-tent physicians, how should they react to their disagreement? Areasonable suggestion is for One and Two to suspend judgmenton whether John has the flu.

In modeling the belief states of the peers in the above sce-nario, let B1 = Cn({s, s→ f , f }) and B2 = Cn({s, s→ ¬ f ,¬ f })be the belief sets of One and Two, respectively, and let s standfor ‘John has symptoms of a mild fever’ and f stand for ‘Johnhas the flu’. Assuming that each peer is epistemically modestin her response to the disagreement over John’s flu status, thenB1 is contracted by the sentence f and B2 is contracted by thesentence ¬ f , leading to new belief sets, B1 ÷ f and B2 ÷ ¬ f .By contracting B1 and B2 in the described ways, One and Twoabandon their opposing beliefs regarding John’s flu status.

It appears that belief contraction is appropriate for modelingepistemic modesty in the face of disagreement, but is it the casethat the contracted belief sets in the example actually satisfyFeldman’s proposal—that is, do the peers suspend judgmenton f and ¬ f after contracting? With the following definitionof suspended judgment, I will show that belief contraction inresponse to a disagreement does indeed satisfy the proposal.

Definition 2. (Suspended Judgment) For any belief set B andnon-tautological sentence p, judgment is suspended on p iffp,¬p < B.

Now, we propose the following.

Proposition Let a pair of belief sets Bi and B j be opposing

with respect to some non-tautological sentence p such thatp ∈ Bi and ¬p ∈ B j. If Bi is contracted by p and B j iscontracted by ¬p, then the belief sets Bi÷ p and B j÷¬p satisfy(Suspended Judgment) with respect to p and ¬p.

Proof. Assume that Bi is contracted by p and B j is contractedby ¬p. We want to show that the contracted belief sets Bi ÷ pand B j ÷ ¬p satisfy (Suspended Judgment) with respect to pand ¬p. By the (÷S uccess) postulate, contracting a belief setB by a non-tautological sentence x when x ∈ B entails that x <(B÷ x). So, p < (Bi ÷ p) and ¬p < (B j ÷¬p) given (÷S uccess).Furthermore, ¬p < Bi since Bi is consistent and p ∈ Bi. By the(÷Inclusion) postulate, ¬p < (Bi ÷ p). Similarly, p < B j sinceB j is consistent and ¬p ∈ B j. By (÷Inclusion), p < (B j ÷ ¬p).It follows that p, ¬p < (Bi ÷ p) and p, ¬p < (B j ÷ ¬p). Thus,the belief sets Bi÷ p and B j÷¬p satisfy (Suspended Judgment)with respect to p and ¬p.

I now have shown that the contracted belief sets in the physi-cians’ example satisfy (Suspended Judgment), but do the beliefsets satisfy the postulates for contraction? Yes, but with the fol-lowing caveat. In order for the contractions to go through in theabove case (and presumably in a number of other cases that aresimilar in structure), each peer must give up at least one otherbelief together with the belief used in contraction. This is anecessary requirement because of the closure condition. If thepeers fail to give up at least one other belief in the belief change,then the belief sets B1÷ f and B2÷¬ f violate (÷S uccess) sincef ∈ Cn({s, s→ f }) and ¬ f ∈ Cn({s, s→ ¬ f }).

Note that logic alone cannot determine which additional be-lief each peer should give up in the above instance. But it isclear which beliefs should be given up if the peers abide bythe epistemic modesty principle. One should abandon belief ins → f and Two should abandon belief in s → ¬ f . This isbecause the peers disagree about what John’s symptoms of amild fever imply, and consequently the disagreement providesboth with a reason to give up the believed conditionals whereasneither one has an apparent reason to throw out the belief thatJohn has symptoms of a mild fever, provided their agreement.By giving up the conditionals, the contractions turn out to besuccessful and, on this occasion, both peer disagreements areresolved.

In sum, I have shown that AGM belief contraction is appro-priate for modeling an epistemically modest response to a dis-agreement with an epistemic peer.

Lee ElkinMunich Center for Mathematical Philosophy

News

Epistemology Workshop, 11–12 AugustThe Academy of Finland funded project Sociality of Knowl-edge, led by Markus Lammenranta, hosted an epistemologyworkshop at the University of Helsinki. The speakers wereBenoit Gaultier, Michael Hannon, Jaakko Hirvela, JonathanJenkins Ichikawa, Jennifer Lackey, Markus Lammenranta,Maria Lasonen-Aarnio, Alan Millar, Ram Neta and BaronReed.

The workshop began with Jennifer Lackey’s talk “Group As-sertion”. Lackey argued for an authority-based model of groupassertion, according to which a spokesperson can make a group

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assertion just in case she has the authority to do so. Alan Mil-lar’s talk “The Social Dimensions of Knowledge” focused onperceptual-recognitional abilities. Millar defended the viewthat perceptual-recognitional abilities are exhibited just in casethe subject succeeds in recognizing something as such-and-such, and that such abilities aim at knowledge.

After the lunch Ram Neta gave a talk entitled “The BasingRelation”. He defended the view that the basing relation is anormative relation that can be understood in terms of its relationto defeat. Michael Hannon proceeded with his talk “Knowl-edge Ascriptions: A User’s Guide”. Hannon developed a uni-fied account of knowledge ascriptions, according to which theyserve to identify reliable informants, signal the end of inquiryand to indicate that the epistemic standards that govern asser-tion and practical reasoning are met.

The first day ended with Markus Lammenrantas talk “How toBe a Disjunctivist?” Lammenranta argued that epistemologicaldisjunctivism should be understood as an account of defensiblebelief rather than responsible belief or rational belief. Lam-menranta argued that when disjunctivism is understood in sucha way it is supported by our ordinary epistemic practices.

The second day started with Baron Reed’s talk “Norms ofDoubt”. Reed argued that doubt should be understood as a con-notative attitude rather than as a doxastic attitude. On the con-notative attitude account doubting that p is wanting to knowwhether p. Benoit Gaultier continued with his talk “ThereAre No Authoritative Epistemic Reasons to Believe”. Gaultierargued that we cannot account for the distinctive compellingforce that evidence has when it comes to belief-formation innormative terms. He painted an alternative account, whichdidn’t feature normative terms, according to which recogniz-ing that one has clear evidence for p is just to believe that p.

In his talk “Basic Knowledge First” Jonathan JenkinsIchikawa argued that the knowledge first program would ben-efit from letting basic knowledge play some of the theoreticalroles that knowledge has had, where basic knowledge is under-stood as knowledge that is not dependent on any other pieceof knowledge for its knowledge status. Maria Lasonen-Aarniogave a talk entitled “Victims of Deceit and the Virtue of Rea-sonableness”. Lasonen-Aarnio argued that subjects in hostileepistemic environments can practice epistemic virtues (whichshe understood dispositionally) since the abilities are merelymasked, not lost, in such circumstances. This allowed Lasonen-Aarnio to vindicate the internalist intuitions regarding the newevil demon thought experiment while still advocating an exter-nalist theory.

Jaakko Hirvela ended the workshop with his talk “Knowl-edge, Virtue and Safety”. Hirvela argued that the satisfactionof a virtue-theoretical condition doesn’t entail the satisfactionof the safety condition. Hirvela defended a weaker formulationof anti-luck virtue epistemology that was not committed to anykind of attribution principle.

Jaakko HirvelaUniversity of Helsinki

Calls for PapersProbabilistic Beliefs: special issue of Theory and Decision,deadline 1 October.Uncertain Reasoning: special issue of Journal of AppliedLogic, deadline 15 October.

Connexive Logics: special issue of IfCoLog Journal of Logicsand their Application, deadline 15 October.Reasoning, Argumentation, and Critical Thinking Instruc-tion: special issue of Topoi, deadline 30 October.Logical Pluralism and Translation: special issue of Topoi,deadline 30 April.

What’s Hot in . . .

Uncertain ReasoningAbner E. Shimony passed away on 8 August 2015, aged 87. Asthe PSA obituary points out Shimony is mostly remembered forhis work on the connections between physics and philosophy,two disciplines which he considered as intimately related.

Uncertain reasoners however will readily associate Shi-mony’s name to a criticism and a refinement of the Dutch BookArgument. More preciselyhis A. Shimony (1955: “Co-herence and the axioms ofconfirmation”, The Journalof Symbolic Logic 20(1): 1–28) introduces what will be-come known in the liter-ature as “strict coherence”and provides the first halfof the characterisation re-sult for regular probabil-ity functions—a result whichwas to be refined shortly af-ter by John Kemeny. Strictness and regularity continue to pro-vide interesting research questions to date.

Shimony’s 1955 paper presents the key results of his PhDdissertation, written under the supervision of Rudolf Carnap.After a short historical note on the origins of the axiomatisatonswhich eventually led to probability logic, Shimony points outhow most authors either relied on a dubious appeal to intuitionor resorted to rather ad-hoc considerations to justify their ax-ioms. He then discusses two exceptions, to this lack of foun-dational robustness, namely R.T. Cox’s axiomatisation and thede Finetti-Ramsey approach to coherence. The paper, however,only deals with the latter.

The main motivation for Shimony’s work is his dissatisfac-tion with de Finetti’s identification of coherence with avoid-ing sure loss. Whilst necessary, Shimony contends that the deFinetti-Ramsey notion of coherence falls short of providing suf-ficient constraints for the intuitive notion of rational belief. Heputs it as follows:

There are sets of beliefs which are classified as co-herent by their definition, but which intuitively weshould classify as incoherent. Specifically, supposeX’s beliefs are such that an opponent can propose aseries of bets acceptable to X on the basis of his be-liefs, and such that (i) X does not suffer a net lossin every eventuality, yet (ii) he makes a net gain inno eventuality, and in at least one possible eventual-ity he suffers a net loss. X’s beliefs in this exampleare coherent, according to Ramsey’s and De Finetti’snotion of coherence, although intuitively we are in-clined to say that they are incoherent.

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Shimony contends that a more adequate notion of coherenceshould guard a rational agent from sure loss while allowingthem to bet in such a way as to possibly suffer a “positiveloss”. Hence Shimony’s coherence arises as a rather mini-mal strengthening of the classical notion, and an intuitive oneat that. Then the central result of the paper follows, namelythat a necessary condition for an agent’s degrees of belief to bestrictly coherent is that they satisfy the usual axioms for proba-bility logic with one essential modification, that is the usual ax-iom to the effect that if θ logically implies φ then the probabil-ity of φ | θ must be one, is strengthened to a biconditional. Animmediate consequence of this stronger axiom is that extremeprobabilities can be assigned coherently only to tautologies andcontradictions. So, strict coherence provides the appropriatefoundation to regular probability functions. Now whether thoseprovide a better formalisation of the intuitive notion of rationaldegrees of belief than classical probability functions, is still anunsettled epistemological question.

As a sociological aside, it can be observed that since the pub-lication of Shimony (1955) and the subsequent paper by J. Ke-meny (1955: “Fair bets and inductive probabilities”. The Jour-nal of Symbolic Logic, 20(3): 263–273) much exciting workhas been done in probability logic. However not much of itseems to have found the space it deserves in mainstream logic.Recent important exceptions exist, notably J. Paris, and A. Ven-covska (2014: Pure Inductive Logic. Cambridge UniversityPress.) which we hope will serve to revive the logicians’ inter-est in the foundations of uncertain reasoning.

Hykel HosniMarie Curie Fellow,

CPNSS, London School of Economics

Evidence-Based MedicineAntibiotics play a crucial role in modern medicine by control-ling bacterial infection. For instance, much surgery would belife-threatening without an ability to control infection. How-ever, antibiotics are becoming less effective due to antimicro-bial resistance. The overuse of antibiotics gives bacteria thathappen to be resistant a greater chance of spreading. In thewords of a Public Health England report: ‘Antibiotics are un-like other drugs used in medicine, as the more we use them theless effective they become.’

Antimicrobial resistance would not be a great a problem,were new antibiotics being discovered and made available. Un-fortunately, recent decades have seen a so-called discoveryvoid. The reason behind this void may be that the develop-ment of new antibiotics is not as profitable as targeting chronicdiseases, so far as pharmaceutical companies are concerned.

Now, the Longitude Prize is offering a £10 million incentiveto help tackle the problem. This prize will reward the develop-ment of a diagnostic test which would allow for a more targeteduse of antibiotics. News relating to the prize is available at theprize blog.

Other steps are also being taken. Antimicrobial stewardshipis defined as ‘an organisational or healthcare-system-wide ap-proach to promoting and monitoring judicious use of antimicro-bials to preserve their future effectiveness’. Last month, NICEreleased an antimicrobial stewardship guideline on the use ofantibiotics and antimicrobials more generally. This new guide-line aims ‘to change prescribing practice to help slow the emer-gence of antimicrobial resistance and ensure that antimicrobials

remain an effective treatment for infection.’ The guidance putsforward best practice recommendations on the effective use ofantibiotics, and the evidence for the recommendations is de-tailed in the full guideline.

The recommendations include reviewing prescribing prac-tices and using feedback to change these practices where nec-essary. It was reported in the BBC as a call to punish GPs overantibiotics. Readers might be interested in the lively debate thissparked in the comments section.

MichaelWildePhilosophy, Kent

Events

September

EV: Epistemic Vices, Durham University, 2–3 September.DA: Conference on Data Analysis, University of Essex, 2–4September.RSS: Royal Statistical Society Conference, University of Ex-eter, 7–10 September.ITA: 6th International Conference on Internet Technologies &Applications, Wrexham, North Wales, 8–11 September.EPC: Buffalo Annual Experimental Philosophy Conference,Buffalo, New York, 11 September.MoS: Metaphysics of Science, Rutgers University, 17–18September.MICE: Methods to Identify Causal Effects, Edinburgh, 21September.EPSA: 5th conference of the European Philosophy of Sci-ence Association, Heinrich Heine University, Dusseldorf, 23–26 September.NCL: Non-Classical Logic—Theory and Applications, Torun,Poland, 24–26 September.ADT: Conference on Algorithmic Decision Theory, Lexington,Kentucky, 27–30 September.

October

CPK: Workshop on Capturing Scientific Knowledge, Palisades,New York, 7 October.

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URSW: Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web, Bethle-hem, Pennsylvania, October 11–12.NOR: Is There No Objective Reality? Ripoll, Spain, 13–15October.DBD: Conference on Defining the Boundaries of Disease,Macquarie University, 15–16 October.P&N: Pluralism and Normativity, University of Bologna, 22–24 October.LORI: 5th International Conference on Logic, Rationality andInteraction, Taipei, Taiwan, 28–31 October.

November

SSE: 50 Shapes of Scientific Explanation, Ghent University,13–14 November.EN: Epistemic Norms Conference, KU Leuven, 9–11 Novem-ber.AMBN: Advanced Methodologies for Bayesian Networks,Yokohama, Japan, 16–18 November.WoK: Ways of Knowing: Feminist Philosophy of Science andEpistemology, Dublin, Ireland, 27–28 November.

Courses and Programmes

CoursesCombining Probability and Logic: University of Kent, 20–21April.EPICENTER: Spring Course in Epistemic Game Theory,Maastricht University, 8–19 June.EPICENTER: Mini-course on Games with Unawareness,Maastricht University, 22–23 June.

ProgrammesAPhil: MA/PhD in Analytic Philosophy, University ofBarcelona.Master Programme: MA in Pure and Applied Logic, Univer-sity of Barcelona.Doctoral Programme in Philosophy: Language, Mind andPractice, Department of Philosophy, University of Zurich,Switzerland.HPSM: MA in the History and Philosophy of Science andMedicine, Durham University.Master Programme: in Statistics, University College Dublin.LoPhiSC: Master in Logic, Philosophy of Science & Epis-temology, Pantheon-Sorbonne University (Paris 1) and Paris-Sorbonne University (Paris 4).Master Programme: in Artificial Intelligence, Radboud Uni-versity Nijmegen, the Netherlands.Master Programme: Philosophy and Economics, Institute ofPhilosophy, University of Bayreuth.MA in Cognitive Science: School of Politics, InternationalStudies and Philosophy, Queen’s University Belfast.MA in Logic and the Philosophy ofMathematics: Departmentof Philosophy, University of Bristol.MA Programmes: in Philosophy of Science, University ofLeeds.MA in Logic and Philosophy of Science: Faculty of Philosophy,Philosophy of Science and Study of Religion, LMU Munich.MA in Logic and Theory of Science: Department of Logic ofthe Eotvos Lorand University, Budapest, Hungary.

MA in Metaphysics, Language, and Mind: Department of Phi-losophy, University of Liverpool.MA inMind, Brain and Learning: Westminster Institute of Ed-ucation, Oxford Brookes University.MA in Philosophy: by research, Tilburg University.MA in Philosophy, Science and Society: TiLPS, Tilburg Uni-versity.MA in Philosophy of Biological and Cognitive Sciences: De-partment of Philosophy, University of Bristol.MA in Rhetoric: School of Journalism, Media and Communi-cation, University of Central Lancashire.MA programmes: in Philosophy of Language and Linguistics,and Philosophy of Mind and Psychology, University of Birm-ingham.MRes in Methods and Practices of Philosophical Research:Northern Institute of Philosophy, University of Aberdeen.MSc in Applied Statistics: Department of Economics, Mathe-matics and Statistics, Birkbeck, University of London.MSc in Applied Statistics and Datamining: School of Mathe-matics and Statistics, University of St Andrews.MSc in Artificial Intelligence: Faculty of Engineering, Uni-versity of Leeds.

MA in Reasoning

A programme at the University of Kent, Canterbury, UK. Gainthe philosophical background required for a PhD in this area.

Optional modules available from Psychology, Computing,Statistics, Social Policy, Law, Biosciences and History.

MSc in Cognitive& Decision Sciences: Psychology, UniversityCollege London.MSc in Cognitive Systems: Language, Learning, and Reason-ing, University of Potsdam.MSc in Cognitive Science: University of Osnabruck, Germany.MSc in Cognitive Psychology/Neuropsychology: School ofPsychology, University of Kent.MSc in Logic: Institute for Logic, Language and Computation,University of Amsterdam.MSc in Mind, Language & Embodied Cognition: School ofPhilosophy, Psychology and Language Sciences, University ofEdinburgh.MSc in Philosophy of Science, Technology and Society: Uni-versity of Twente, The Netherlands.MRes in Cognitive Science and Humanities: Language, Com-munication and Organization: Institute for Logic, Cognition,Language, and Information, University of the Basque Country(Donostia San Sebastian).OpenMind: International School of Advanced Studies in Cog-nitive Sciences, University of Bucharest.

Jobs and Studentships

JobsPost doc: in Causal Analysis in Economics, Sant’Anna Schoolof Advanced Studies, open.Professorship: in Science Studies, Aarhus University, open.Assistant Professorship: in Philosophy of Physics, MunichCenter for Mathematical Philosophy, deadline 3 September.Professorship: in Mathematical Logic, University of Oxford,deadline 7 September.

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Research Fellowship: in Model Uncertainty, Monash Univer-sity, deadline 15 September.Post doc: in Philosophy of the Social Sciences, Munich Centerfor Mathematical Philosophy, deadline 15 September.Associate Professorship: in Probability Theory, University ofCopenhagen, deadline 25 September.Lectureship: in Machine Learning, University of Glasgow,deadline 30 September.Research Fellowship: in Historical & Philosophical Studies,University of Cambridge, deadline 1 October.Associate Professorship: in Statistics, University of Bath,deadline 11 October.Post doc: in Justifying Intuitive Judgments, Aarhus University,deadline November 1.

StudentshipsPhD position: in Theoretical Philosophy, University of Oslo,deadline 1 September.PhD postiton: in Logic and Computation, University of Liver-pool, deadline 7 September.PhD position: in Justifying Intuitive Judgments, Aarhus Uni-versity, deadline November 1.

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