Volta drivers of change (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)

Water for a food‐secure world

Volta Basin DriversGlobal Drivers Topic Working Group

Workshop 12‐14th September, Chiang Mai, Thailand

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Fred Kizito, Cofie Olufunke, Jean‐Philippe Venot, Augustine Ayantunde,

Philippe Cecchi and Jennie Baron

[email protected]

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Presentation Outline

1. Conditions in the Volta Basin

2. Main basin-specific drivers

3. Basin responses to drivers

4. Learning processes

5. Questions/clarification

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Main System Drivers Basin Specific Responses

Climate Variability

Demographic pressure

Energy demands

Trans‐boundary

Current conditions in the Volta Basin

Political‐Economic

Determinants

External (outside basin)

Internal(inside basin)

Markets

Policies

Institutions

Information

Technology

Resources

Adaptive learningand introduction of on‐groundInterventions

Land Use Change

Migration

Trans‐boundaryagreements

Regional Integration

Enhances coping and adaptive mechanisms that reduces Basin‐level stresses and improves resilience

Learning Processes

Conceptual illustration

Note: The interaction of factors in the system is non‐linear and mainly influenced by the dominant factor at a given time

Above determinants operate at various scales; local, regional and basin level

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Land pressure

Resource Management


Conditions of the Volta Basin

1. Location and bio-physical characteristics

2. Socio-economic characteristics

3. Institutional arrangements

4. Trans-boundary nature of its placement

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Location and background

Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009

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Biophysical Characteristics1. Climate

2. Water Resourcesa) Surface Water Resources

b) Groundwater Resources

3. Soils, Vegetation and Land Use

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Climate


Characterized by high spatial variability with 3 major climatic zones

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Water Resources

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Surface and Groundwater resources Groundwater potential

1 2 3


Soils, Vegetation and Land Use

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Source: Barry et al, 2005


Socio‐economic characteristics

1. Per-capital income: Variable in different countries

2. Population trends: Population growth rate ~ 3%

3. Market access and stability remains a challenge

4. Access to agricultural inputs and services

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Socio‐economic characteristics

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Generated from WHO and UNICEF data, 2008

Ghana

Burkina Faso

Togo

71%40%

66%

Access to good quality water

Ghana

Burkina Faso

Togo

71%40%

66%

1.63

1.26

0.88

Generated from World Bank Data, 2005‐2010

Gross Domestic Product * 1000 (PPP) (Country wide)



Institutional arrangements

1. International/trans-boundary level e.g. Volta Basin Authority

2. National institutions e.g. Ministries

3. Regional institutions e.g. Regional rural growth projects

4. District institutions: e.g. District assemblies

5. Local institutions e.g. Farmer associations

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Basin‐specific drivers

1. Climate variability

2. Demographic pressure

3. Land pressure

4. Increasing energy demands

5. Trans-boundary issues

6. Political-Economic conditions

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Climate variability1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact:

a) Stream flow

b) Seasonal soil moisture

c) Agricultural productivity

2. Extreme events

a) Droughts (related to rainfall)

b) Flooding (related to rainfall/dam releases)

3. Temperature rises (associated with CC)

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Climate Variability

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Temperature trends

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Navrongo, Northern Ghana


Demographic trends

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Increasing Land Pressure

Global economic uncertainties

Global and regional rise in food prices

Opportunity to meet demands in developing countries

Land acquisition deals by conglomerates

More pressure on reduced land resources

What are the livelihood implications of the rural poor who lose their land to the large conglomerates?

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Increasing Energy demands

Have resulted in:

1. Dam Construction:a) Hydropower generation

b) Regulation of flow and

c) Increased irrigation

2. Flood control and energy agreements

3. Loss of ecosystem services

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Source: Barry et al, 2005


Trans‐boundary considerations

1. Dam construction- Soil degradation and flooding

2. Transhumance – Land degradation

3. Bushfires- Common occurrence

4. Deforestation

5. Ecosystem degradation e.g. deforestation, siltation and water quality issues

6. Market price fluctuations

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Political‐Economic drivers

1. Lack of political will

2. Decentralization- could be hindered by insufficient resources and institutional capacity

3. Political unrest, conflicts, (in)stability

4. Economic conditions which mainly impact local resource users

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Responses to basin‐specific drivers

1. Land-use changes

a) Agricultural intensification

b) Agricultural ‘extensification’

2. Ecosystem services enhancement

3. Migration in response to basin pressures

4. Trans-boundary agreements

5. Regional integration

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Learning processes: Pathways to adapt to drivers

1. On VBDC Work: Integrated Water Resources Management

2. Increment in irrigated acreage

3. Technological changes in conjunction with indigenous knowledge

4. Government incentives

5. Alternative energy sources

6. On-going work on ecosystem services and resilience

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Questions/Clarifications

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Volta drivers of change (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)

Technology

land use

regional institutions

land pressure4

insufficient resources

reduced land resourceswhat

local institutions

transhumance land degradation3

district institutions