Vocal Minority vs. Silent Majority

Vocal Minority vs. Silent MajorityVocal Minority vs. Silent Majority

Eni MustafarajSamantha FinnCarolyn WhitlockPanagiotis Metaxas

IEEE SocialCom 2011 @ MIT Media LabOctober 10, 2011

GamingGaming

How humans can use technology to “influence” the political process.

Examples of gamingExamples of gaming

Vocal Minority can:1.Frame the conversation2.Put pressure on the media

ImplicationsImplications

Not all user-generated content is equal. The fact that we have lots of it, doesn’t mean we should use it as it is.

2008: Election of President Obama2008: Election of President Obama

2009: The Healthcare Reform2009: The Healthcare Reform

2009: The rise of Tea Party2009: The rise of Tea Party

Aug 2009: Senator Kennedy DiesAug 2009: Senator Kennedy Dies

Special Election in MASpecial Election in MA

Martha CoakleyDemocrat

Attorney General

Scott BrownRepublican

State Senator

Pre-electoral PollsPre-electoral Polls

Boston Globe 01-04-2010 50% 35%

Rasmussen Reports 01-04-2010 50% 41%

Rasmussen Reports 01-11-2010 49% 47%

Twitter Data CollectionTwitter Data Collection

January 13 – 20, 2010 234,697 tweets 56,165 unique Twitter users

Vocal vs. SilentVocal vs. Silent

Silent users(1 tweet)

Vocal users(50+ tweets)

Silent users

Vocal users

User VolumeUser Volume

Tweets VolumeTweets Volume

Political ActivismPolitical Activism

Friendship graph for 574 users with more than 50 tweets

Tweets are not made equalTweets are not made equal

Tweets are not made equalTweets are not made equal

What’s in a Tweet?What’s in a Tweet?

Silent Users Vocal Users

Only Text 42.0% 8.0%

Hashtags 14.1% 53.0%

Links 29.7% 49.4%

Retweets 29.6% 60.3%

Framing the ConversationFraming the Conversation

Social Media CampaignsSocial Media Campaigns

Social Media CampaignsSocial Media Campaigns

Social Media CampaignsSocial Media Campaigns

115 tweets to report progress on Facebook fans54 tweets to report progress on Twitter followers

Campaign AmplificationCampaign Amplification

Targeting the MediaTargeting the Media

Political TweetbotsPolitical Tweetbots

Human Bots?Human Bots?

30 lists with tweets2758 tweets180 media accounts targeted.

Pre-Fabricated TweetsPre-Fabricated Tweets

The Tweets-Factory against MediaThe Tweets-Factory against Media

DO YOUR JOB SHINE THE LIGHT ON ACORNhttp://bit.ly/DoYourJob @ACORN Nat @SEIU@GlobeSenateRace @wwlp #masen

WE THE PEOPLE WANT A FAIR ELECTIONhttp://bit.ly/acRNFraud @ACORN Nat @SEIU@GlobeSenateRace @wwlp #masen

ConclusionsConclusions

Tweets are not equal. Opinion mining and predictions based on

aggregated data cannot be trusted.

Tweets Factory 2.0Tweets Factory 2.0

Thank youThank you

#questions