Appendix 2-8: Chlorpyrifos Species Sensitivity Distribution Analysis for Aquatic Invertebrates Summary SSDs were fit to toxicity data for aquatic invertebrates exposed to Chlorpyrifos. Five distributions were tested and the gumbel distribution was found to provide the best fit. Tests also suggested that a single SSD should be fit to pooled saltwater and freshwater test results. Important summary statistics from the fitted SSDs are provided below in Table B 2-8.1. Detailed results follow. Table B 2-8.1. Summary statistics for log-gumbel SSDs fit to Chlorpyrifos test results Statistic Pool ed Resu lts Freshwater Results Saltwater Results Goodness of fit P-value 0.7443 0.6144 0.9041 CV of the HC 05 0.47 0.47 2.03 UCp 1 of the HC 05 0.121 0.13 0.221 HC 05 0.041 0.044 0.034 HC 10 0.072 0.075 0.073 HC 50 0.98 0.79 2.43 HC 90 59.5 32.0 602 HC 95 285.0 131.9 4947.5 Mortality Threshold (slope = 4.5) 0.003 6 0.0039 0.0030 Indirect Effects Threshold (slope = 4.5) 0.021 1 0.0230 0.0174 1 ML=maximum likelihood, MO= moment estimators, and GR=graphical methods 1 UCp=projections of the upper confidence limit of the HC 05 onto the cumulative distribution function of the fitted distribution. Page 1 of 38
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Appendix 2-8: Chlorpyrifos Species Sensitivity Distribution Analysis for Aquatic Invertebrates
Summary
SSDs were fit to toxicity data for aquatic invertebrates exposed to Chlorpyrifos. Five distributions were tested and the gumbel distribution was found to provide the best fit. Tests also suggested that a single SSD should be fit to pooled saltwater and freshwater test results. Important summary statistics from the fitted SSDs are provided below in Table B 2-8.1. Detailed results follow.
Table B 2-8.1. Summary statistics for log-gumbel SSDs fit to Chlorpyrifos test results
Statistic Pooled Results Freshwater Results Saltwater Results
Goodness of fit P-value 0.7443 0.6144 0.9041CV of the HC05 0.47 0.47 2.03UCp1 of the HC05 0.121 0.13 0.221HC05 0.041 0.044 0.034HC10 0.072 0.075 0.073HC50 0.98 0.79 2.43HC90 59.5 32.0 602HC95 285.0 131.9 4947.5Mortality Threshold (slope = 4.5) 0.0036 0.0039 0.0030Indirect Effects Threshold (slope = 4.5) 0.0211 0.0230 0.0174
1ML=maximum likelihood, MO= moment estimators, and GR=graphical methods1 UCp=projections of the upper confidence limit of the HC05 onto the cumulative distribution function of the fitted distribution.
I. Data
Data used in this analysis are from an updated dataset (file date: 8-26-16), and are detailed in Table B 2-8.15 (end of document). The LC50 values that are included in this analysis are from either 48 or 96-hour tests with technical grade active ingredient. This updated analysis also includes the EC50 values for “Immobility” as a proxy for mortality from organisms tested under the same exposure criteria as noted above. Table B 2-8.2 provides the distribution of the test results and the number of species represented.
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Table B 2-8.2. Distribution of test results available for ChlorpyrifosMedia Test results SpeciesAll 189 64Freshwater 151 51Saltwater 38 15 One species (Palaemonetes pugio) was tested in both saltwater and freshwater.
Figs. B 2-8.1, 2 and 3 show the distribution of test results among subsets of invertebrate test results. In general, most species have been tested once or twice, with a few species having been tested as many as 17 times.
Figure B 2-8.1. Distribution of test results among taxa in all chlorpyrifos test results
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Figure B 2-8.2. Distribution of test results among taxa in freshwater chlorpyrifos test results
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Figure B 2-8.3. Distribution of test results among taxa in saltwater chlorpyrifos test results
Five potential distributions for the Chlorpyrifos data were considered (log-normal, log-logistic, log-triangular, log-gumbel, and Burr). To fit each of the first four distributions, the toxicity values were first common log (log10) transformed. The importance of separating the saltwater versus freshwater taxa was examined using a regression approach with examination of common plots. Finally, direct and indirect effect thresholds and five quantiles from the fitted SSDs (HC05, HC10, HC50, HC90, HC95) were calculated and reported.
II. Comparison of distributions using AICc
Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for sample size (AICc ) was used to compare the five distributions for all three datasets, the full dataset combining freshwater and saltwater tests, and then separately for freshwater and saltwater test results. For this comparison all SSDs were fit using maximum likelihood. Based on the AICc ranking (i.e., lowest value), for all three datasets, AICc suggested that the gumbel distribution provided the best fit (Tables B 2-8.3, 4 and 5).
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Table B 2-8.3. Comparison of distributions for all aquatic invertebrate toxicity data for Chlorpyrifos
III. Test for the need to model results separately by medium
To test whether or not separate SSDs should be used, the individual freshwater and saltwater SSDs were plotted with their confidence limits, against the pooled all-invertebrate SSD (Fig. B 2-8.4). For both freshwater and saltwater, the 95% confidence limits around the SSDs, encompass the SSD for pooled results (the null model), thus, these plots provide support for considering a single pooled SSD.
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Figure B 2-8.4. Log-gumbel SSD for aquatic invertebrate test results (black line; SSD plot), freshwater invertebrates (red dashed lines; 95% confidence limits), and saltwater invertebrates (blue dashed lines; 95% confidence limits).
IV. Goodness of fit & Uncertainty
To test goodness-of-fit, all five distributions were fit to each of the three datasets (pooled, saltwater and freshwater toxicity data) and bootstrap goodness-of-fit tests with 5,000 bootstrap replicates were used. Three different fitting methods (maximum likelihood, moment estimators, and graphical methods) were used, though, not all methods are available for all distributions. Tables B 2-8.6, 7 and 8 give results of these fitting exercises. No distribution showed significant lack-of-fit, except the Burr distribution for all datasets. In general, the gumbel distribution (determined to be the best by AICc) also had the lowest coefficients of variation for the HC05 (excluding the Burr distribution due to lack-of-fit). The gumbel distribution also tended to produce the highest estimates of the HC05, and generally, the narrowest confidence intervals around the HC05 (Tables B 2-8.6, 7 and 8, Figs. B 2-8.5, 6 and 7).
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Table B 2-8.6. Range of HC05 values for Chlorpyrifos SSDs fit to all invertebrates.Distribution Method1 HC05 SE CV LCx Ucx LCp Ucp Pnormal ML 0.0109 0.0089 0.8151 0.0026 0.037 0.0176 0.1062 0.98normal MO 0.0105 0.0083 0.7899 0.003 0.0322 0.0205 0.1001 0.992normal GR 0.0081 0.0056 0.6932 0.0019 0.0232 0.0181 0.0934 0.989logistic ML 0.0087 0.0072 0.8322 0.0024 0.0302 0.0234 0.1 0.9211logistic MO 0.0112 0.0107 0.959 0.003 0.0416 0.0237 0.102 0.997logistic GR 0.0074 0.0052 0.7029 0.0011 0.0202 0.0184 0.083 0.994triangular ML 0.0089 0.009 1.0015 0.0043 0.034 0.0271 0.1086 1triangular MO 0.0095 0.0065 0.687 0.0034 0.0288 0.016 0.1067 0.997triangular GR 0.0083 0.0058 0.6967 0.0023 0.024 0.0113 0.1023 0.996gumbel ML 0.0407 0.0191 0.4701 0.0194 0.087 0.0148 0.1209 0.7443gumbel MO 0.0299 0.0149 0.4976 0.0122 0.0703 0.0131 0.1221 0.7363gumbel GR 0.0231 0.0101 0.438 0.0064 0.0453 0.0075 0.0988 0.6114burr ML 0.0406 0.0136 0.3354 0.0232 0.0766 0.0208 0.1064 0.1389
Table B 2-8.7. Range of HC05 values for Chlorpyrifos SSDs fit to freshwater invertebrates.Distribution Method1 HC05 SE CV LCx Ucx LCp Ucp P
normal ML 0.0162 0.0125 0.7728 0.0034 0.0512 0.0127 0.1132 0.959normal MO 0.0155 0.0108 0.6987 0.005 0.0463 0.0193 0.1084 0.972normal GR 0.0119 0.008 0.6702 0.003 0.0331 0.0163 0.0997 0.9451logistic ML 0.0133 0.0101 0.7603 0.004 0.0444 0.0226 0.1075 0.8462logistic MO 0.0164 0.0138 0.8378 0.0046 0.0585 0.0217 0.1109 0.971logistic GR 0.0109 0.0077 0.7125 0.0016 0.0293 0.0159 0.0888 0.9211triangular ML 0.0113 0.0129 1.146 0.0048 0.0524 0.0228 0.1244 1triangular MO 0.0143 0.0098 0.681 0.0054 0.0401 0.0138 0.1122 0.966triangular GR 0.0124 0.0074 0.5982 0.004 0.0329 0.0109 0.1062 0.975gumbel ML 0.0444 0.0207 0.4673 0.0189 0.0945 0.0098 0.1301 0.6144gumbel MO 0.0384 0.018 0.4688 0.0158 0.0854 0.0101 0.13 0.5874gumbel GR 0.0297 0.0134 0.4521 0.0084 0.06 0.0055 0.1111 0.4595burr ML 0.0444 0.017 0.3824 0.0244 0.0923 0.0174 0.1268 0.3297
1ML=maximum likelihood, MO= moment estimators, and GR=graphical methodsLCp and UCp=projections of the confidence limits of the HC05 (LCx and UCx) onto the cumulative distribution function of the fitted distribution.
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Table B 2-8.8. Range of HC05 values for Chlorpyrifos SSDs fit to saltwater invertebrates.Distribution Method1 HC05 SE CV LCx Ucx LCp Ucp P
normal ML 0.00730 0.08000 10.96200 0.00047 0.23200 0.00990 0.21850 0.96500normal MO 0.00580 0.06320 10.89880 0.00021 0.13760 0.00720 0.19010 0.97400normal GR 0.00210 0.01360 6.56190 0.00001 0.03470 0.00280 0.14630 0.95500logistic ML 0.00340 0.04590 13.69880 0.00011 0.10140 0.01200 0.18480 0.94810logistic MO 0.00630 0.06060 9.57740 0.00015 0.18040 0.01000 0.18660 0.96500logistic GR 0.00140 0.01120 7.80090 0.00000 0.03160 0.00300 0.13810 0.93610triangular ML 0.01120 0.20010 17.88040 0.00200 0.29950 0.00880 0.22330 0.97500triangular MO 0.00510 0.05880 11.48970 0.00032 0.13940 0.00093 0.20680 0.96400triangular GR 0.00260 0.02890 11.03280 0.00004 0.03870 0.00000 0.15620 0.97000gumbel ML 0.03360 0.06850 2.03910 0.00770 0.24840 0.00710 0.22050 0.90410gumbel MO 0.02350 0.08170 3.47510 0.00260 0.23830 0.00270 0.23260 0.89110gumbel GR 0.00950 0.02330 2.44240 0.00012 0.07260 0.00011 0.16830 0.85310burr ML 0.03210 0.06470 2.01640 0.00410 0.24120 0.00290 0.21770 0.16280
1ML=maximum likelihood, MO= moment estimators, and GR=graphical methodsLCp and UCp=projections of the confidence limits of the HC05 (LCx and UCx) onto the cumulative distribution function of the fitted distribution.
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Figure B 2-8.5. Mean (red point) and range (black bar) of estimated HC05s for all Chlorpyrifos invertebrate test results
Figure B 2-8.6. Mean (red point) and range (black bar) of estimated HC05s for all Chlorpyrifos freshwater invertebrate test results
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Figure B 2-8.7. Mean (red point) and range (black bar) of estimated HC05s for all Chlorpyrifos saltwater invertebrate test results
Another step to assess goodness-of-fit was to visually inspect the fit for evidence of problems. Figures B 2-8.8, 9, and 10 below plot the data points against the fitted SSDs for pooled, freshwater and saltwater test results. These plots do show some evidence for lack-of-fit, especially at the higher quantiles. However, they seem to fit fairly well in the neighborhood of the HC05.
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Figure B 2-8.8. Log-gumbel SSD for Chlorpyrifos toxicity values for pooled invertebrates. Black points indicate single toxicity values. Red points indicate average of multiple toxicity values for a single species. Blue line indicates full range of toxicity values for a given species.
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Figure B 2-8.9. Log-gumbel SSD for Chlorpyrifos toxicity values for freshwater invertebrates. Black points indicate single toxicity values. Red points indicate average of multiple toxicity values for a single species. Blue line indicates full range of toxicity values for a given species.
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Figure B 2-8.10. Log-gumbel SSD for Chlorpyrifos toxicity values for saltwater invertebrates. Black points indicate single toxicity values. Red points indicate average of multiple toxicity values for a single species. Blue line indicates full range of toxicity values for a given species.
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V. Calculation of other quantilesTables B 2-8.9, 10, and 11 provide estimates of the HC05 as well as other quantiles of the fitted SSDs.
Table B 2-8.9. Estimated quantiles of the fitted SSDs for all invertebrate toxicity tests for ChlorpyrifosDistribution method HC05 HC10 HC50 HC90 HC95
normal ML 0.0109 0.0332 1.7058 87.5577 267.3999normal MO 0.0105 0.0322 1.7058 90.3265 278.3013normal GR 0.0081 0.0263 1.7058 110.4267 360.1725logistic ML 0.0087 0.0301 1.163 44.8733 155.4108logistic MO 0.0112 0.04 1.7058 72.6844 260.3725logistic GR 0.0074 0.0294 1.7058 98.8087 392.9151
triangular ML 0.0089 0.0287 3.9518 543.576 1.75E+03triangular MO 0.0095 0.0257 1.7058 113.0655 305.438triangular GR 0.0083 0.0231 1.7058 126.1057 349.5911
gumbel ML 0.0407 0.0722 0.9847 59.4803 285.0498gumbel MO 0.0299 0.0565 1.0255 96.9959 551.7237gumbel GR 0.0231 0.0459 1.0486 142.1069 927.4016
burr ML 0.0406 0.0722 0.9842 58.4338 277.8289
Table B 2-8.10. Estimated quantiles of the fitted SSDs for freshwater invertebrate toxicity tests for Chlorpyrifos
dist method HC05 HC10 HC50 HC90 HC95
normal ML 0.0162 0.0423 1.2519 37.0123 96.669normal MO 0.0155 0.0409 1.2519 38.2808 100.9418normal GR 0.0119 0.0333 1.2519 47.0424 131.5085logistic ML 0.0133 0.0395 0.9679 23.7374 70.4697logistic MO 0.0164 0.0494 1.2519 31.7441 95.3129logistic GR 0.0109 0.0362 1.2519 43.2837 144.4133
triangular ML 0.0113 0.034 3.5444 369.6706 1.11E+03
triangular MO 0.0143 0.0337 1.2519 46.452 109.3676
triangular GR 0.0124 0.03 1.2519 52.1617 126.2309
gumbel ML 0.0444 0.0745 0.789 32.026 131.8531gumbel MO 0.0384 0.0664 0.8075 40.7041 182.0372gumbel GR 0.0297 0.0539 0.8269 59.9252 307.8839burr ML 0.0444 0.0745 0.7891 31.7335 130.0851
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Table B 2-8.11. Estimated quantiles of the fitted SSDs for saltwater invertebrate toxicity tests for Chlorpyrifos
dist method HC05 HC10 HC50 HC90 HC95
normal ML 0.0073 0.0311 5.14 851.9 3626.3normal MO 0.0058 0.0260 5.14 1019.2 4564.9normal GR 0.0021 0.0117 5.14 2265.0 12722.0logistic ML 0.0034 0.0192 3.24 546.0 3123.2logistic MO 0.0063 0.0347 5.14 763.0 4177.3logistic GR 0.0014 0.0114 5.14 2314.4 18480.0triangular ML 0.0112 0.0380 6.62 1153.6 3918.0triangular MO 0.0051 0.0192 5.14 1374.7 5167.5triangular GR 0.0026 0.0112 5.14 2360.4 10086.0gumbel ML 0.0336 0.0725 2.43 602.2 4947.5gumbel MO 0.0235 0.0548 2.61 1120.7 11362.0gumbel GR 0.0095 0.0267 2.90 4563.5 75969.0burr ML 0.0321 0.0708 2.45 594.4 4812.3
VI. Calculation of thresholdsThresholds were calculated assuming a probit dose-response with the HC05 as the mean and a default slope of 4.5. Lower and upper confidence limits are calculated from the lower and upper confidence limits of the HC05 estimates. Calculated thresholds are provided in Tables B 2-8.9.12, 13, and 14.
Table B 2-8.9.12. Morality and Indirect Effects Thresholds for Chlorpyrifos (all invertebrates)
Expected LCL UCL Expected LCL UCLnormal ML 0.0006 0.0000 0.0204 0.0038 0.0002 0.1204normal MO 0.0005 0.0000 0.0121 0.0030 0.0001 0.0714normal GR 0.0002 0.0000 0.0030 0.0011 0.0000 0.0180logistic ML 0.0003 0.0000 0.0089 0.0017 0.0001 0.0526logistic MO 0.0006 0.0000 0.0158 0.0033 0.0001 0.0937logistic GR 0.0001 0.0000 0.0028 0.0007 0.0000 0.0164triangular ML 0.0010 0.0002 0.0263 0.0058 0.0010 0.1554
triangular MO 0.0004 0.0000 0.0122 0.0027 0.0002 0.0724
triangular GR 0.0002 0.0000 0.0034 0.0014 0.0000 0.0201
gumbel ML 0.0030 0.0007 0.0218 0.0174 0.0040 0.1290gumbel MO 0.0021 0.0002 0.0209 0.0122 0.0014 0.1237gumbel GR 0.0008 0.0000 0.0064 0.0050 0.0001 0.0377burr ML 0.0028 0.0004 0.0212 0.0167 0.0021 0.1252
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Table B 2-8. 15 provides all of the available LC50 values for aquatic invertebrates (within the 24 or 48 hour timeframe-unless otherwise noted). These data sets are the same as reported in the effects characterization and provide additional data for the formulated products. Values that were included in the SSD (i.e., TGAI) are marked with an *.
Table B 2-8.15. Available median lethal concentration (LC50) data for aquatic invertebrates exposed (48 or 96 hr) to chlorpyrifos as TGAI or formulation.
Genus Species Endpoint SSDConc. in
ug/L Ref # ClassificationHyalella azteca MORT * 0.014 MRID 44345601 AcceptableDaphnia magna IMBL 0.032 160353 NA1
Americamysis bahia MORT * 0.035 15639 NA1
Daphnia ambigua MORT * 0.035 71674 NA1
Americamysis bahia MORT * 0.035 MRID 40228401 Supplemental Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.038 352 NA1
Americamysis bahia MORT * 0.040 3947 NA1
Americamysis bahia MORT * 0.040 MRID 40228401 SupplementalHyalella azteca MORT * 0.043 64955 Quantitative
Americamysis bahia MORT * 0.045 MRID 42144906 AcceptableCeriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.048 158195 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.050 16806 NA1
Simocephalus vetulus MORT * 0.050 16806 NA1
Haliplus sp. MORT * 0.050 16806 NA1
Cloeon sp. MORT * 0.050 16806 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.050 73373 NA1
Deleatidium sp. MORT * 0.050 153793 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.051 160294 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.053 18190 Quant. SSDCeriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.055 18190 Quant. SSDCeriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.056 71674 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.058 18190 Quant. SSDHyalella curvispina MORT * 0.060 159934 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.060 16844 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.060 16844 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.063 121117 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.064 18190 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.065 86411 NA1
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Genus Species Endpoint SSDConc. in
ug/L Ref # ClassificationCeriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.066 18190 NA1
Gammarus pulex MORT 0.070 8107 NA1
Rhepoxynius abronius MORT * 0.070 56538 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.070 86411 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.070 108483 Quant. SSDHyalella azteca MORT * 0.071 86411 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.072 86411 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.072 86411 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.074 86411 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.076 86411 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.079 18190 Quant. SSDGammarus pulex MORT 0.080 8107 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.080 18468 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.080 18468 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia IMBL * 0.080 67777 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.080 157799 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.081 86411 NA1
Procloeon sp. MORT * 0.081 90039 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.085 86411 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.086 86411 NA1
Chironomus riparius MORT * 0.089 13342 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT * 0.089 86411 NA1
Daphnia carinata MORT * 0.090 108483 Acceptable Simocephalus vetulus MORT * 0.090 108483 Acceptable Ceriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.094 18190 Quant. SSD
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.10 18468 NA1
Hyalella azteca MORT 0.10 18996 NA1
Rhepoxynius abronius MORT * 0.10 56538 NA1
Moina australiensis MORT * 0.10 108483 NA1
Daphnia magna IMBL * 0.10 MRID 40840902 AcceptableDaphnia magna IMBL * 0.11 13342 NA1
Gammarus lacustris MORT * 0.11 6797 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia IMBL 0.11 67777 NA1
Gammarus lacustris MORT * 0.11 MRID 40098001 SupplementalCeriodaphnia dubia MORT * 0.12 18190 Quant. SSD
Neomysis integer MORT * 0.13 53635 NA1
Rhepoxynius abronius MORT * 0.14 56538 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.15 18468 NA1
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Genus Species Endpoint SSDConc. in
ug/L Ref # ClassificationParatya australiensis MORT * 0.15 18468 NA1
Neomysis integer MORT * 0.15 53635 NA1
Palaemonetes pugio MORT * 0.15 92616 NA1
Palaemonetes pugio MORT * 0.15 92616 NA1
Ampelisca abdita MORT * 0.16 56539 NA1
Palaemonetes pugio MORT * 0.16 72741 NA1
Hyalella curvispina MORT * 0.17 159934 NA1
Gammarus palustris MORT * 0.19 51439 NA1
Neomysis integer MORT * 0.19 53635 NA1
Daphnia magna IMBL * 0.19 96171 NA1
Culexpipiens ssp.
molestus MORT 0.20 5162 NA1
Cloeon dipterum IMBL 0.20 8107 NA1
Farfantepenaeus aztecus MORT * 0.20 MRID 40228401 Supplemental
Daphnia magna IMBL * 0.21 13342 NA1
Daphnia magna IMBL * 0.22 13342 NA1
Gammarus pulex MORT * 0.23 159804 NA1
Daphnia carinata MORT * 0.23 107384 Quantitative Atalophlebia australis MORT * 0.24 108483 Acceptable
Daphnia carinata MORT * 0.24 108495 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.25 18468 NA1
Daphnia pulex MORT 0.25 18477 NA1
Daphnia pulex IMBL 0.25 18477 NA1
Ceriodaphnia dubia IMBL 0.25 67777 NA1
Daphnia magna MORT * 0.25 157799 NA1
Chironomus dilutus IMBL * 0.25 160294 NA1
Daphnia carinata MORT * 0.28 107384 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.28 18468 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.28 18468 NA1
Paratya australiensis MORT * 0.28 18468 NA1
Simulium vittatum MORT * 0.28 71060 NA1
Atalophlebia australis MORT * 0.28 108483 Acceptable Chironomus dilutus MORT * 0.29 160294 NA1