View to a Crime: A GIS Approach to Homicides Over Time in Chicago 19 April 2012 Champaign, Illinois ILGISA Spring Conference Noah Sager Graduate Student Department of Geography Chicago State University
View to a Crime: A GIS Approach to Homicides Over Time in Chicago
Nov 14, 2014
Copy of my presentation to the ILGISA Spring Conference, 2012, in Champaign, IL. The study looks at 10 years of homicide data in Chicago to look for temporal trends.
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View to a Crime: A GIS Approach to Homicides Over Time in Chicago
19 April 2012Champaign, Illinois
ILGISA Spring Conference
Noah SagerGraduate StudentDepartment of GeographyChicago State University
Criminal Background
Crime Time Summer – (Block 1984, Field 1992, Hipp et. al.
2004) Winter - (Koppen & Jansen 1999) Lunar - (Biermann et. al. 2009) Menstruation - (Dalton 1961)
Crime Place Gentrification - (Papachristos et. al. 2011) Hotspots - (Block & Block 1995, Ratcliffe 2004)
Crime Studies Don’t Pay Temporal Specificity/Generalizations Crime Specificity
Precision: the Missing Link Different Temporal Specificity Crime Generalizations
Criminal Background
All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak
Homicide: Death in the Streets
Homicide: Death in the Streets
All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily Time Animation (ArcGIS) One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
Homicide: Death in the Streets
All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily One-way ANOVA (SPSS) Time Animation (ArcGIS)
January (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes311
Average31.1
Rank11th
January = 31.1
February (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes256
Average25.6
Rank12th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes370
Average37.0
Rank10th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0
April (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes431
Average43.1
Rank7th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1
May (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes441
Average44.1
Rank6th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1
June (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes567
Average56.7
Rank2nd
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7
July (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes597
Average59.7
Rank1st
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes521
Average52.1
Rank3rd
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1
September (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes489
Average48.9
Rank4th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9
October (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes458
Average45.8
Rank5th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9October = 45.8
November (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes397
Average39.7
Rank8th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December (2001 – 2010)
Total Crimes380
Average38.0
Rank9th
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
Total (2001 – 2010)
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
Total (2001 – 2010)
January = 31.1February = 25.6
March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
30 DaysSeptemberAprilNovemberJune
28.2 DaysFebruary
Total (2001 – 2010)
January = 1.00February = 0.91March = 1.19April = 1.44May = 1.42June = 1.89July = 1.93August = 1.68September = 1.63October = 1.48November = 1.32December = 1.23
Monthly AverageJanuary = 31.1
February = 25.6March = 37.0
April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7
August = 52.1September =
48.9October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
Daily Average
Homicide: Death in the Streets
All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily One-way ANOVA (SPSS) Time Animation (ArcGIS)
Crime Pays: Results
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
chApr
ilMay
June Ju
ly
Augus
t
Sept
embe
r
Octob
er
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Homicides (Average 2001-2010)
Homicides (Average 2001-2010)
Months
Hom
icid
es
Crime Pays: Significant Results January < June, July, August, September February < April, May, June, July, August, September,
October March < July April > February (and) < July May > February June > January, February July > January, February, March, April,
November, December August > January, February September > January, February October > February November < July December < July
Significant: p < 0.05
Homicide: Death in the Streets
All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily One-way ANOVA (SPSS) Time Animation (ArcGIS)
Time Animation via ArcGIS
Conclusions
Criminal Intent High and Low months/seasons Significant differences
Future Studies Expansion of crime types, crime times Increased analysis Framework for GIS Applications
Future Study
More Crime, More Better Homicide, Arson, Gambling
▪ Assault, Burglary, Robbery
More Time, More Better Crime by Days
▪ Individual days, weekday days v. weekend days
Crime by Time▪ Four 6 hour periods, individual hours
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 349
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 344
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 324
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 257
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 229
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 178
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 160
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 86
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 114
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 134
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 121
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117z
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
7pm-8pm: 181
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
7pm-8pm: 181
8pm-9pm: 237
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
7pm-8pm: 181
8pm-9pm: 237
9pm-10pm: 283
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
7pm-8pm: 181
8pm-9pm: 237
9pm-10pm: 283
10pm-11pm: 290
Total (2002 – 2011)
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
7pm-8pm: 181
8pm-9pm: 237
9pm-10pm: 283
10pm-11pm: 290
11pm-12am: 323
Total (2002 – 2011): 4,939
Hourly Total
12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117
Hourly Total
12pm-1pm: 138
1pm-2pm: 134
2pm-3pm: 163
3pm-4pm: 165
4pm-5pm: 195
5pm-6pm: 175
6pm-7pm: 242
7pm-8pm: 181
8pm-9pm: 237
9pm-10pm: 283
10pm-11pm: 290
11pm-12am: 323
View to a Crime: A GIS Approach to Homicides Over Time in Chicago
Thank You!
Questions?
Noah SagerGraduate StudentDepartment of GeographyChicago State [email protected]
19 April 2012Champaign, Illinois
ILGISA Spring Conference
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