Nov 2020 – Page 1 November 2020 Vietnam by Numbers Classified: Internal • Vietnam by Numbers looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to Vietnam primarily through charts. • The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented. Any commentary will be limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the ‘less is best’ treatment, essentially letting the figures do the talking. • The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional, domestic, and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of key macro, market, or sector data and used for internal or external presentations or needs. CONTENT GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Fig 1: Global GDP forecasts (%) .............................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator ...............................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator .....................................................................................................................4 Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500 ................................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 5: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average .....................................................................................................................................4 Fig 6: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index ...........................................................................................................................4 Fig 7: Gold & Silver Prices .....................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 8: Bitcoin & Gold Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 9: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate ............................................................................................................5 Fig 10: Price change of S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS ...........................................................................................................................5 Fig 11: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond & IG Bond OAS Spread ................................................................................................5 Fig 12: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads ........................................................................................................................................................5 Fig 13: Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth ........................................................................................................................5 Fig 14: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads.............................................................................................................................................5 Fig 15: Vietnam – FTAs between Vietnam and Other Countries ..........................................................................................................5 Fig 16: Vietnam – Google Mobility Indicator ........................................................................................................................................5 VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 17: Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%) ....................................................................................................................................6 Fig 18: Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%) ................................................................................................................................6 Fig 19: Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD)................................................................................................................................................6 Fig 20: ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%) ...........................................................................................................................................6 Fig 21: Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP ........................................................................................................................................6 Fig 22: ASEAN – Real GDP (%) ...............................................................................................................................................................6 Fig 23: Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %) ......................................................................................................................................7 Fig 24: Vietnam – CPI (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................7 Fig 25: Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%) .............................................................................................................................................7 Fig 26: ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %) .................................................................................................................................................................7 Fig 27: Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%) ...................................................................................................................................................7 Fig 28: Vietnam – PMI ...........................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 29: Vietnam vs. Asia PMI .................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 30: Currency (%, vs USD) .................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 31: DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate ......................................................................................................................................8 Fig 32: VND Trading Bands ....................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 33: Vietnam – Bond Yields (%).........................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 34: Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate ...............................................................................................................................8 Fig 35: Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued ........................................................................................................................8 Fig 36: Vietnam – Top Imports Products in 10M2020 ..........................................................................................................................9 Fig 37: Vietnam – Top Exports Products in 10M2020 ...........................................................................................................................9 Fig 38: Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 10M2020 .........................................................................................................................9 Fig 39: Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 10M2020 ..........................................................................................................................9 Fig 40: Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports ...................................................................................................................................9 Fig 41: Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%) ......................................................................................................................9 Fig 42: Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%) ............................................................................................................................9 Fig 43: VN-Registered&Disbursed FDI, Cumulative YTD (USDbn) .......................................................................................................10 Fig 44: Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 10M2020.................................................................................................................10
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Transcript
Nov 2020 – Page 1
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
• Vietnam by Numbers looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to Vietnam
primarily through charts.
• The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented. Any commentary will be
limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the ‘less is best’ treatment,
essentially letting the figures do the talking.
• The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional, domestic,
and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of key macro, market, or
sector data and used for internal or external presentations or needs.
CONTENT
GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Fig 1: Global GDP forecasts (%) .............................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator ...............................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator .....................................................................................................................4 Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500 ................................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 5: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average .....................................................................................................................................4 Fig 6: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index ...........................................................................................................................4 Fig 7: Gold & Silver Prices .....................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 8: Bitcoin & Gold Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 9: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate ............................................................................................................5 Fig 10: Price change of S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS ...........................................................................................................................5 Fig 11: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond & IG Bond OAS Spread ................................................................................................5 Fig 12: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads ........................................................................................................................................................5 Fig 13: Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth ........................................................................................................................5 Fig 14: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads.............................................................................................................................................5 Fig 15: Vietnam – FTAs between Vietnam and Other Countries ..........................................................................................................5 Fig 16: Vietnam – Google Mobility Indicator ........................................................................................................................................5
VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM ....................................................................................................................................................... 13
Fig 79: Vietnam - Consumer Loans/GDP (%) .......................................................................................................................................16 Fig 80: Vietnam - Consumer Loans & Credit Growth (%, yoy) ............................................................................................................16 Fig 81: Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD) .......................................................................................................................................16 Fig 82: Vietnam - Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (%) ................................................................................................................16 Fig 83: ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales ...........................................................................................................16 Fig 84: ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value ...........................................................................................................................16 Fig 85: Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers ......................................................................................................16 Fig 86: Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit) ........................................................................................................16 Fig 87: Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival .......................................................................................................................................17 Fig 88: Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%) .............................................................................................................17 Fig 89: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC .....................................................................................................................17 Fig 90: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in Hanoi......................................................................................................................17 Fig 91: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in HCMC (USD/sqm) ..................................................................................................17 Fig 92: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in Hanoi (USD/sqm) ..................................................................................................17 Fig 93: Projects advertised by District in HCMC, YTD20......................................................................................................................17 Fig 94: Projects advertised by District in Hanoi, YTD20 ......................................................................................................................17 Fig 95: Projects advertised by Month in HCMC, YTD – Nov 20 ...........................................................................................................18 Fig 96: Projects advertised by Month in Hanoi, YTD – Nov 20 ............................................................................................................18
VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
Fig 97: Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn) .......................................................................................................19 Fig 98: Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 10M2019 ...........................................................................................................19 Fig 99: VN – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2018 .........................................................................................................19
Nov 2020 – Page 3
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 100: Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn) ...............................................................................................................19 Fig 101: Vietnam – Volume Deficiency (kWh bn)................................................................................................................................19 Fig 102: Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn) .................................................................................................................19 Fig 103: ASEAN – Electricity Price, Jul 2018 (USDc/kWh)....................................................................................................................19 Fig 104: Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh) ............................................................................................................................19 Fig 105: Direct Generators (mn W) .....................................................................................................................................................20 Fig 106: Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market (USDc/kWh) ................................................................................20 Fig 107: Coal Plant Construction Starts in SE Asia ...............................................................................................................................20 Fig 108: Vietnam – Power Development Plan ....................................................................................................................................20
VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS ...................................................................................................................................................... 21
Fig 109: MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%) ...................................................................................................................................................21 Fig 110: VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance ........................................................................................................................21 Fig 111: Stock Market Performance (%) .............................................................................................................................................21 Fig 112: VN-Index & Sector Index Performance (YTD) ........................................................................................................................21 Fig 113: PER (x) ....................................................................................................................................................................................21 Fig 114: Valuation Band of VNIndex ...................................................................................................................................................21 Fig 115: ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%) .............................................................................................................................................21 Fig 116: VN – Tracking Estimated Net Profit Growth for 2020 (%) .....................................................................................................21 Fig 117: Vietnam – Foreign Investors Transactions (USD mn) ............................................................................................................22 Fig 118: Average Daily Turnover (USD mn) .........................................................................................................................................22 Fig 119: Market Turnover by Investors (VND trn) ...............................................................................................................................22 Fig 120: Number of Trading Accounts.................................................................................................................................................22 Fig 121: Number of State Divestment 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan....................................................................................................22 Fig 122: Number of SOE IPOs 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan .................................................................................................................22 Fig 123: MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index – Country Weight ............................................................................................................22