7/29/2019 Vietnam Aug 2013 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/vietnam-aug-2013 1/19 Vietnam Executive summary Vietnam was deficit total products supply versus demand in 2012. The country had deficits in all products with large deficits seen in gasoline and diesel. The start-up of Dung Quat refinery, the first refinery in Vietnam, in 2009 has ensured to reduce Vietnam’s reliance on imports. But, with demand growing steadily beyond 2013 and with not enough incremental refinery supply, the deficits are expected to widen by 2015. Product balances - all supply versus demand -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 LPG Naphtha Gasoline J et/Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil B a l a n c e s ( k b / d ) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Surplus Deficit Oil product demand has grown over the past decade to reach 441 kb/d (20.7 Mt) in 2012. It is forecast to continue to grow based on an average GDP growth of 6.1% per annum between 2012 and 2025. Demand reaches 921 kb/d (42.6 Mt) in 2025. Dung Quat refinery is the only refinery in Vietnam currently, with a nameplate capacity of 130 kb/d. Nghi son refinery, a new grassroots refinery is expected to start its operation by 2017. Au gu st 2013 Asia Pacific
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Vietnam was deficit total products supply versus demand in 2012. The country had deficits in allproducts with large deficits seen in gasoline and diesel. The start-up of Dung Quat refinery, the firstrefinery in Vietnam, in 2009 has ensured to reduce Vietnam’s reliance on imports. But, with demandgrowing steadily beyond 2013 and with not enough incremental refinery supply, the deficits areexpected to widen by 2015.
Oil product demand has grown over the past decade to reach 441 kb/d (20.7 Mt) in 2012. It is forecastto continue to grow based on an average GDP growth of 6.1% per annum between 2012 and 2025.Demand reaches 921 kb/d (42.6 Mt) in 2025.
Dung Quat refinery is the only refinery in Vietnam currently, with a nameplate capacity of 130 kb/d.Nghi son refinery, a new grassroots refinery is expected to start its operation by 2017.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 2 of 19
This new refinery will reduce Vietnam’s import dependency when it comes on stream. However, in thelonger term, oil product deficits increase, suggesting the need for more investment in the refining sectorin Vietnam.
With stable operation of the Dung Quat refinery, we forecast that average utilisation will remain aroundthe 90% level until the start of the Nghi son refinery in 2017. As Vietnam is net short of all products, therefineries are expected to run close to full utilisation, even in the longer term.
Non-refinery supply of LPG from NGLs, and the usage of ethanol in the gasoline pool is not largeenough to make a significant impact to the supply situation.
Vietnam is forecast to have a growing deficit of oil products unless it makes further investments in newrefining capacity.
The gasoline deficit reduces considerably by 2020 with the start of Nghi son refinery.
Middle distillates - jet/kerosene and diesel - are expected to have the largest level of deficit by 2020as demand growth outpaces supply from the new investments.
The LPG deficit also increases at a rapid pace due to strong residential/commercial sector demandgrowth.
Total Demand thousand b/d 420 441 520 771 921 5.82
GDP 2000 US$ Bn 63 70 84 114 151 6.12Population million 88 90 92 96 99 0.79GDP per Capita 2000 US$000 715 779 903 1,182 1,522 5.29Oil Intensity bbls per US$000 2.44 2.30 2.27 2.47 2.22 -0.27Demand per Capita bbls 1.75 1.79 2.05 2.92 3.38 5.00
The short-term outlook for Vietnam is expected to improve from last year’s sluggish performance. Real GDP growthposted a 13-year low of 5% in 2012, weighed down by weakening domestic market and external headwinds. Due to theweak economic momentum, Vietnam’s government has made economic growth a key policy priority. The central bankhas cut benchmark interest rate twice since this year in a bid to encourage credit growth. As a result, the businessoutlook has improved and foreign investment in the manufacturing sector has picked up in recent months. Overall, aslight pick-up in economic activity is expected in the short term and Wood Mackenzie forecasts real GDP growth of 5.5%in 2013 and 6.2% in 2014. In the longer term, Wood Mackenzie anticipates that Vietnam’s real GDP growth will peak in2016 at 6.7% and then moderate to 5.6% by 2025.
Total product demand in Vietnam is forecast to grow from 441 kb/d (20.7 Mt) in 2012 to reach 921 kb/d (42.6 Mt) in 2025- an average growth rate of 5.8% per annum. The transport sector accounts for close to 60% of total demand and isprojected to grow at 6.0% annually over the forecast period, led predominantly by robust growth in road-use and aviationdemand. The industrial, petrochemicals and power generation sector combined makes up 25% of present demand. Asthe economy industrialise, we expect demand for these sectors to expand at 5.1% between 2012 and 2025. There is astepped increase in demand in 2018; this is attributed to the projected commissioning of a naphtha cracker in Long San.Residential and commercial use of oil stands at little over 12%; however demand is projected to grow strongly at 4.3%annually over the forecast period.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 4 of 19
Annual demand change
-20
-10
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
D e m a n d c h a n g e ( k b / d )
Other Products Fuel Oil Diesel/Gasoil J et/Kerosene Gasoline NaphthaLPG Total Demand
Source: IEA, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
Demand by product Demand by sector
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
D e m a n d ( M b / d )
RFL Other Products
Fuel Oil Diesel/Gasoil
J et/Kerosene Gasoline
Naphtha LPG
Source: IEA, Forecast Wood Mackenzie
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
D e m a n d b y s e c t o r ( M b / d )
Res/Comm/Agri Bunkers
Road Other TransportPetchem IndustryOther Aviation
Source: IEA, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
LPG
Total LPG demand is forecast to increase at an average rate of 6.5% per annum through to 2025.
Around 85% of LPG demand is currently used in the residential and commercial sectors. Based on a view thatVietnam's economy more than doubles between now and 2025, overall residential/commercial use of LPG isexpected to grow strongly at 4.3% per annum. As traditional fuels still account for nearly 80% of total energy use inthis sector, switching to LPG is expected to continue in the long run.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 5 of 19
LPG demand by sector
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
L P G D e m a n d ( k b / d )
Aviation Bunkers Road Other Transport
Petchem Res/Comm/Agri Industry Other
Source: IEA, National Statistics, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
Naphtha
Vietnam has no reported naphtha demand at the moment.
A large petrochemical site at Long Son island has been proposed as a joint venture by Petrovietnam, Vinachem,Siam Cement group, Thai Plastic and Chemical, and Qatar Petroleum. However, no final investment decisions havebeen made.
Nevertheless, given Vietnam’s high growth potential, in order to avoid underestimating long-term demand, weassume 800 kt of capacity to start before 2020 (with naphtha and LPG used mainly as feedstock), resulting in
naphtha demand forecast to be 25 kb/d (1.1 Mt) for 2020 through 2025.
Petrochemical feedstock demand by product
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
P e t r o c h e m i c a l F e e d s t o c k D e m a n d ( k b / d )
LPG Naphtha Other Products
Source: IEA, National Statistics, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
Gasoline
With a rapid growth in vehicle population (albeit from a small base), gasoline demand growth was remarkably strongat 10.4% per annum between 2000 and 2012.
Gasoline demand is forecast to moderate to 3.3% average growth per year through to 2025.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 6 of 19
Vehicle ownership: Vietnam is at a very early stage of motorisation. The number of passenger vehicles on the roadincreased by 250% between 2005 and 2012. However, vehicle ownership remains very low at an estimated 5 carsper thousand capita in 2012. As the country develops, car ownership is projected to increase to reach 26 cars perthousand capita (2.6 million cars) in 2025.
Vehicle type: At present, we estimate that practically all of the vehicle stock is gasoline-fuelled. By 2025, gasoline
cars are still dominant with close to 95% of the stock; with the remainder being diesel, and various hybrid/electricvehicles.
Fuel use per vehicle: The amount of fuel consumed per vehicle will gradually decline by roughly 1.5% per yearassuming fuel efficiency improvements outweigh an increase in distance driven.
Car parc by fuel type
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
C a r P a r c ( m i l l i o n )
Other AEV/PHEV Hybrids CNG LPG Diesel Gasoline
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Jet/other kerosene
J et fuel represents the majority (90%) of total jet/kerosene demand in Vietnam.
From a low base, jet fuel demand increased by an estimated of 16.4% per year from 2000 to 2012. J et fuel demandin 2012 is estimated at 28 kb/d (5.3 Mt). Between 2012 and 2025, growth will moderately slightly to an averageincrease of 11.4% per annum.
Air travel is expected to grow in line with overall economic growth, of which positive effects on jet demand will bemitigated to some extent by airlines’ pursuit of improved efficiency in terms of operation as well as fuel use.
Use of kerosene in the residential sector currently stands at 2 kb/d (0.1 Mt), having fallen from a peak demand of 11
kb/d (0.5 Mt) in 2001. Demand for kerosene is forecast to remain largely stagnant over the forecast period.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 7 of 19
Jet/other kerosene demand by sector
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
J e t / K e r o s e n e D e m a n d ( k b / d )
Aviation Bunkers Road Other Transport
Petchem Res/Comm/Agri Industry Other
Source: IEA, National Statistics, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
Diesel/gasoil
Total diesel/gasoil demand increased by 7.1% per annum between 2000 and 2012; demand is forecast to grow by5.5% annually through to 2025.
More than 70% of demand stems from the transport sector. Demand in this sector is dominated by road diesel forfreight transport use, which has increased by 9.6% per annum from 2000 to 2011. Between 2012 and 2025, roaddiesel demand is forecast to average an increase of 6.3% annually.
Meanwhile, demand in the industry sector is low at 24 kb/d (1.2 Mt) in 2012, having grown 6.5% per annum from
2000 to 2011. Within the industrial sector, power generation at present depends principally on indigenous coal, and isexpected to shift, to a lesser degree, towards natural gas in the long run. Based on this view, we expect growth inindustrial diesel/gasoil demand to be very limited.
Diesel/gasoil use in the residential, commercial and agricultural (RCA) sector is set to see an increase from 14 kb/d(0.7 Mt) in 2011 to 25 kb/d (1.2 Mt) by 2025.
Diesel/gasoil demand by sector
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
D i e s e l / G a s o i l D e m a n d ( k b / d )
Aviation Bunkers Road Other TransportPetchem Res/Comm/Agri Industry Other
Source: IEA, National Statistics, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 8 of 19
Fuel oil
Total fuel oil demand in Vietnam grew marginally by 0.5% per annum between 2000 and 2012, with an increase indemand from the electricity generation and bunkering sector being offset by a decrease in industrial sector demand.
Fuel oil demand is expected to increase by 4.5% per year through to 2025. This forecast is predicated on a 6.1%average growth rate in demand for bunkering use over the forecast period. We are also projecting for a 11.6%
average annual increase in oil use for power generation to 2019 as gas supply is constrained and new coal capacityis delayed. Meanwhile, industry demand for fuel oil is expected to remain largely unchanged over the forecast period.
Fuel oil demand by sector
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
F u e l O i l D e
m a n d ( k b / d )
Aviation Bunkers Road Other Transport
Petchem Res/Comm/Agri Industry Other
Source: IEA, National Statistics, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 9 of 19
Policy and regulation
Fuel quality specifications
Gasoline
Vietnam has been particularly notable in undertaking significant fuels legislation compared to its regional peers, with anumber of moves to help tackle pollution. The government in Vietnam has implemented Euro II sulphur specifications(500 ppm sulphur maximum) from 2007 reducing the sulphur content from 1500 ppm level. The benzene content in thegasoline is legislated at 2.5 % max.
The Government has issued a directive to move to Euro-IV specifications by 2016 one year ahead of the nationwideadoption of tighter vehicular emissions on 1
stJ anuary 2017.
Diesel/gasoil
Vietnam’s Trade Ministry has reduced sulphur content in fuels. Since 2007, the allowable limit of sulphur was reducedfor transportation diesel from 5000 ppm to 500 ppm and for industrial diesel from 5000 ppm to 2500 ppm sulphur.
The Government has issued a directive to move to Euro-IV specifications by 2016 one year ahead of the nationwide
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 10 of 19
Infrastructure
Refinery infrastructure
The only refinery in Vietnam is the Dung Quat refinery which was started in 2009. The refinery has a capacity of 130kb/d (6.5 Mtpa). The refinery is of an FCC configuration.
Refineries by type Refinery capacity by type
0
1
2
N u m b e r o
f R e f i n e r i e s
FCC
Source Wood Mackenzie
100.0%
FCC
Source Wood Mackenzie
Refinery investments
Vietnam is planning to start the new 200 kb/d grassroots Nghi Son refinery in Thanh Hoa province by 2017. This is a joint venture refinery involving PetroVietnam, Mitsui, Idemitsu and Kuwait Petroleum International. The refinery will alsohave an integrated petrochemical complex targeting para-xylene production.
With this, Vietnam’s refining capacity is expected to reach 330 kb/d by 2018.
As Vietnam is expected to be a net-importer of products even with this capacity addition, we have assumed a 0.5% perannum capacity creep from 2015 onwards.
There are discussions underway concerning the building of a third refinery at Long Son in Vung Tau province andseveral others. And there is also a plan to expand the Dung Quat refinery by 70 kb/d from its current 130 kb/d capacity.But, at this stage we do not believe the plans are firm enough to include this in our supply modelling through to 2018.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 12 of 19
Supply
Crude slate
Crude trade
Dung Quat refinery, the sole refinery operating in Vietnam was processing 100% domestic crude, predominantly themedium sweet Bach Ho crude in 2012.
When the second refinery, the Nghi son refinery starts operation in 2017, it is expected to be process mainly Kuwaitcrude as Kuwait Petroleum International is one of the J oint Venture partner in the refinery. With the ESPO pipelinedoubling in capacity to 1.2 Mb/d and the pipeline connectivity established between Skovorodinov and Kozmino, weforecast that Vietnam will have access to ESPO crude as well.
As the West African crudes are the closest in quality to the declining crude production both domestically and also in AsiaPacific, we forecast that West African crudes will make their way to Vietnam. Rising crude oil production in the US isexpected to push back West African barrels, resulting in more West African crude flowing to Asia.
The quality of the crude slate is expected to slightly change with the investments, as light crude processing increasesalong with West African crudes flowing in.
Heavy Sour Heavy Sweet Medium Sour Medium Sweet Light Sour Light Sweet
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Refinery supply
In 2012, Dung Quat refinery processed around 110 kb/d (5.5 Mt) of crude, which represented a utilisation rate of 85%.We expect that Dung Quat will be running at a sustainable utilisation level of 90% in the future.
The country utilisation drops close to 66% in 2017 when Nghi Son refinery starts up with 50% utilization in the first yearslowly ramping up to 90% utilization from 2018 onwards.
Refinery Fuel & Loss Other products Fuel OilDiesel/Gasoil J et/Kerosene GasolineNaphtha LPG
Source: IEA, National Statistics, Forecast: Wood Mackenzie
There is a substantial growth in refinery production for Vietnam with the new Nghi Son refinery in 2017. The modestgrowth seen post-2018 is coming from the 0.5 % capacity creep growth assumed for every year.
Refinery yields until 2016 are representative only of the Dung Quat refinery, while refinery yields change slightly with thenew Nghi Son refinery in the post-2017 period.
LPG from non-refinery supply sources, such as NGLs totalled 6 kb/d (0.18 Mt) in 2012. This remains broadly at similarlevels in the long run.
Biofuels
Vietnam had approximately 4kb/d (180kt) of ethanol production capacity in place by the end of 2011. A further 6 kb/d of capacity is under construction by PetroVietnam, potentially bringing capacity up to 10 kb/d (460 kt) by the end of 2012.
The main feedstock is cassava, but there is also ethanol production from sugarcane. Ethanol consumption wasestimated at only 0.52 kb/d (24kt) in 2012. Utilisation at the existing plants is therefore low, with surplus production beingexported to other Asian countries.
There is currently no mandate for the use of biofuels in Vietnam. PetroVietnam started marketing E5 blends in a limitednumber of filling stations in August 2010 and has gradually expanded the number of outlets where it is available,potentially reaching several hundred by the end of 2011. E5 is offered at a very small discount to standard gasoline.Ethanol consumption is not expected to expand significantly until government mandates are implemented. Draftlegislation to mandate E5 blends was proposed in late 2011, starting with several provinces, before expandingnationwide by 2015. A nationwide E5 mandate would require 5 kb/d (250kt) of ethanol, which domestic productioncapacity should be more than capable of supplying. Given the strong government involvement in the market and the factthat new capacity is being built by PetroVietnam, we assume that this mandate will be implemented. It has been statedthat the country’s longer term aim is to raise ethanol consumption to 2 billion litres (35 kb/d, 1.5 Mt) by 2025, which looksvery ambitious. We have assumed a gradually increasing share of ethanol in the gasoline pool after 2020. Ethanol
consumption therefore reaches 12 kb/d (550 kt) by 2025.
The poor economics of biodiesel production are expected to keep biodiesel consumption negligible.
Source: Net Trade Balance : IEA, GTIS, Wood Mackenzie analysis
Vietnam is a net importer of all refinery products as it got its first refinery only in 2009. After the start of its firstrefinery, import volumes have reduced in 2010 and 2011.
Vietnam is a large net importer of gasoline with most of its imports coming from countries within Asia Pacific mainlySingapore and South Korea.
Vietnam is also a large net importer o f diesel/gasoil. Most of the diesel imports are from Taiwan and Singapore.
Product Markets Service - Country Report - August 2013 Page 18 of 19
Supply-demand balances
The balances chart below shows our forecasts for both refinery and non-refinery output versus country demand forindividual products.
Vietnam will have large deficits in all products as the current refinery infrastructure is not able to meet the rising
domestic demand. These deficits are a clearly an indicator that Vietnam needs more refineries than the Nghi Sonrefinery that has been planned for 2017.
LPG demand is growing very fast in the residential and commercial sectors, leading to the deficit growing. NGLsupply reduces the LPG deficit only by a modest 5 kb/d.
Currently, there is no demand for naphtha. However, we expect naphtha demand in 2019 in the form of the LongSon petrochemical complex, resulting in a naphtha deficit developing.
The largest deficits are seen in the transportation fuels gasoline, jet and diesel whose demand is growing verystrongly. The gasoline and diesel deficits will be reduced by supply from the Nghi Son refinery, but the country stillremains deficit in both products. Penetration of ethanol into the gasoline pool is expected to grow, starting at about 6kb/d in 2015 and doubling to 12 kb/d by 2025, which will reduce the gasoline deficit marginally.
The jet fuel deficit is growing strongly and is set to easily outpace the gasoline deficit by 2020 as refiners focus onincreasing the production of road transportation fuels.
Fuel oil has the slowest demand growth rate amongst all products and so the deficit increases only marginally fromcurrent levels.
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