Vienna University of Technology 17 - Integration of Demand Side... · Vienna University of Technology IEA Task Meeting –September 30th KLOESS –Vienna University ofTechnology.

Energy Economics Groupgy p

Vienna University of TechnologyVienna University of Technology

IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology

Electric Vehicle related Projects• ELEK‐TRA Project (2008‐2009): Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH

AVL List GmbHHybrid & Electric Vehicles

– Technological AssessmentTechnological Assessment– Ecological Assessment– Economic Assessment– Model‐Based Scenarios of market‐ & fleet penetration

• Vehicle‐to‐Grid Strategies (2010‐2012) AITICT ‐ Vienna University of TechnologySalzburg AG

Interaction of EV an Gridf– Grid Requirements– Load Profiles– Charging Infrastructure– Business Models

• Vehicle‐to‐Grid Interfaces (2010‐2011) ICT ‐ Vienna University of TechnologyCURE

Interfaces for EV use S l b AG– Interfaces for EV use Salzburg AG


MARKET‐ AND FLEET‐PENETRATION OFHYBRID AND ELECTRIC CARS IN AUSTRIAMODEL BASED ANALYSIS 2010‐2050MODEL BASED ANALYSIS 2010 2050

Maximilian Kloess

Energy Economics Group – Vienna University ofEnergy Economics Group Vienna University ofTechnology


Background

Background:• ELEK‐TRA Project 2008/2009: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH

AVL List GmbH

Hybrid & Electric Vehicles

– Technological Assessment

– Ecological Assessment

– Economic Assessment

– Model‐Based Scenarios of market‐ & fleet penetration

IC ICG IC

ICE

ConventionalDrive

Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrids Full Hybrids Plug‐In‐HybridsPlug‐In‐HybridsSeries dirve Electric vehicle

ICE

Transmissi

Motor

Battery12V

Inverter

CE

TransmM

otor

InverteC

ontrolUnit

CE

Transmission

MotorIN

VC

ontrol Unit

Generator

ICE

Transmissi

Motor

Battery12V

Inverter

CE

Transmis

Motor/

Generator

InverterC

ontrolUnit

clutch

Generator

Invertercontrol

unit

Mo

Batteries

INV

ControlU

nitMon

Tank

mission

Tank

Battery

120Ver

DC

/DC

Battery12V

Tank

Battery

200VV

DC

/DC

Battery12V

on

Tank

y ssion

Tank

Batteries

200V

DC

/DC

Battery12V

Tank

Batteries

200V

otor

Motor


Methodology• Combination of bottom‐up and top‐down modelling approaches

– Bottom‐up vehicle technology modelB tt fl t d l– Bottom‐up fleet model

– Top down modeling of transport demand and service level– Dynamic cost comparison of propulsion systems and fuels

L it d l h f d i i d lli ( k t h f– Logit‐model approach for consumer decision modelling ( market shares of technologies)

• Input parametersF l i– Fuel prices

– Income level– Costs of technologies (components vehicles)

P li i l f k di i– Political framework conditionsScenarios 2010‐2050– Market‐ and fleet penetration of vehicle technologies– mean vehicle characteristics (mass, power, efficiency)– Energy Consumptions (well‐to‐wheel)– Greenhouse gas emissions (well‐to‐wheel)


Scheme of the model

Greenhouse GasEmissions

Net costs of vehicles:3 vehicle classes8 propulsion systems

cost of component 1

glob

al

earning

Bottom‐Up‐Fleet ModelVehicle‐Technology ‐Model

Investment costs €/km:

Biofuel Blending Energy Consumption

& Fuel Mix

cost of component n

g le

Specific Service Costs & Determination of Market Shares

Political Framework conditions

•Acquisition costs•Vehicle life time•Interest rate•Kilomtres driven per year

Annual vehicle registration

h l l Overall vehicle stockconditions:•Tax on onwnership•Tax on acquisition•Fuel tax•Subsidies …

Fuel costs €/km:

service cost €/km

Market Shares(logit‐model)

•By vehicle class•By propulsion system

Overall vehicle stock

Fuel costs €/km:•Vehicle efficiency•Net Fuel price•taxation

T D D d M d l

Transport Demand & Service Level:Vehicle registrationsVehicle use (kilometrage)Vehicle characteristics

Diffusion Barriers:•Infrastructure•Availability…

Statistic Parameters:•Fuels•Technologies •Age structure•Distribution of classes

Technology Improvement:•Efficiency of vehicles•Technological learning effects (fuels)

Exogenous Parameters:

Top‐Down‐Demand‐Model


Vehicle characteristics Distribution of classes•Driving distances•Transport demand figures

•Income•Fossil Fuel Price (Scenarios)

Scenario Settings

Scenario framework conditions:

• Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)

0 14

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

Wh

0,02

0,04

0,06€/kW

Gasoline/Diesel CNG Electricity

0,00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Scenario Settings



• Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc)– Fuel Taxes: gasoline: 0,45€Fuel Taxes: gasoline: 0,45€

diesel: 0,35€

– Tax on acquisition: 0‐16% Policy Scenarios 2010 ‐ 2050

– Tax on ownership: 0 ‐ 1500€


Scenario Settings



• Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc)

• Technological Learning of alternative powertrain technologies• Technological Learning of alternative powertrain technologies(key components)

• Fuel supply scenarios:Fuel supply scenarios:– Biofuel blending

– Sources of Electricity


Scenario SettingsAssumptions for presented results:

• Policy – Business‐as‐usual (BAU)y ( )

• Policy – Active + low fuel price scenario

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Tax On Ownership

Tax on AcquisitionTaxes

Businenss as Usual Policy Active Policy

Engine Power

Fuel Tax

Vehicle T

es

CO2 threshold‐100g/km

Status 2010

Status 2010CO2 threshold‐140g/kmCO2 threshold‐120g/km

Fuel Taxe

Scheme 4Scheme 3

Status 2010Scheme 1Scheme 2

Status 2010 Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4Gasoline € kWh‐1 0.051 0.051 0.05 0.07 0.10Diesel € kWh‐1 0.036 0.036 0.05 0.07 0.10CNG € kWh‐1 0 0.036 0.05 0.07 0.10Electricity € kWh‐1 0 0 0 0 0.02


Results

Business‐as‐usual (BAU)

Fleet development

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

es

Conventional Drive

Micro‐Hybrids

Mild H b id

Fleet development:

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

vehicle Mild‐Hybrid

Full‐Hybrid

Plug‐In Hybrid

Series Hybrid

EV

‐

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

40Final energy consumption:

20

25

30

35

TWh

Gasoline

Diesel

CNG

Electricity

0

5

10

15

T

LR = 17,5%

LR = 12,5%


0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Results

Business‐as‐usual (BAU)60WTW Energy Consumption

30

40

50

Wh

renewable

fossil

WTW – Energy Consumption:

0

10

20

TW LR = 12,5%

LR = 17,5%

0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

12 000

14 000 WTW – Greenhouse Gas

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

0t CO2 equ

ivalent

WTT‐Fuel Production

TTW‐Fuel Burning

TTW‐Vehicle Production

LR = 12,5%

Emissions:

0

2 000

4 000 1000

,

LR = 17,5%


Results

Policy – Active

Fleet development 6.000.000 Fleet development:

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

hicles

Conventional Drive

Micro‐Hybrids

Mild‐Hybrid

2050:70% Electric orPlug‐In Hybrid Cars

‐

1.000.000

2.000.000

3 000 000

veh Full‐Hybrid

Plug‐In Hybrid

Series Hybrid

EV

35

40Final energy consumption:

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

20

25

30

35

TWh

Gasoline

Diesel

CNG

Electricity

LR = 17 5%2050:

0

5

10

15 LR = 17,5%

LR = 12,5%2050:50% electricity in the energy supply


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Results

Characteristics of new cars in the two scenarios:

1250

1300

1350

1400

Average mass:

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200kg

BAU Scenario

Policy Scenario

180

200BAU Scenario

Greenhouse gas emissions:

100

120

140

160

g km

‐1

Policy Scenario

Average power:

60

65

70

75

kW BAU Scenario

80

100

50

55

60Policy Scenario


Results

Policy – Active

WTW Energy Consumption

30

40

50

60

Wh

renewable

fossil

LR = 12,5%

WTW – Energy Consumption:

0

10

20

30

TW

LR = 17,5%

renewable ‐100% RES

2010‐2050:‐50% fossil energy demandwith with 100% renewable electricity

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

14 000 WTW – Greenhouse Gas

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

O2 equ

ivalent

WTT‐Fuel ProductionTTW‐Fuel BurningTTW‐Vehicle ProductionLR= 12 5%

Emissions:

2010‐2050:

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

1000

t CO LR = 12,5%

LR = 17,5%100% RES electricitiy

2010 2050:‐50% with fossil electricity (nat. gas)‐65% with 100% renewable electricity


Results

Business‐as‐usual (BAU)6.000.000 Fleet development

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

hicles

Conventional Drive

Micro‐Hybrids

Mild‐Hybrid

Fleet development:

‐

1.000.000

2.000.000

veh Full‐Hybrid

Plug‐In Hybrid

Series Hybrid

EV

Active Policy Scenario2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Fl t d l t 6.000.000Fleet development:

3 000 000

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

icles

Conventional Drive

Micro‐Hybrids

Mild‐Hybrid

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

vehi Full‐Hybrid

Plug‐In Hybrid

Series Hybrid

EV


‐

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Maximilian KLOESS (Msc)Energy Economics Group – Vienna University of TechnologyEnergy Economics Group – Vienna University of TechnologyGusshausstraße 25‐29, 1040 Wien, +43 (1) 58801 37371 [email protected]@eeg.tuwien.ac.atwww.eeg.tuwien.ac.at


Vienna University of Technology 17 - Integration of Demand Side... · Vienna University of Technology IEA Task Meeting –September 30th KLOESS –Vienna University ofTechnology.

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