UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED VICTORIA’S ECONOMY – THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORS AND PLACE Presentation to EDA Forum Justin Hanney, Head, Employment Investment and Trade, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources 11 August 2017 CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
35
Embed
VICTORIA’S ECONOMY – THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORS AND … · VICTORIA’S ECONOMY – THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORS AND PLACE Presentation to EDA Forum Justin Hanney, Head, Employment
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
VICTORIA’S ECONOMY – THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORS AND PLACE
Presentation to EDA Forum Justin Hanney, Head, Employment Investment and Trade, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources 11 August 2017
CONFIDENTIAL
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 2
1. Economic Performance
2. Current Economic Challenges
3. Understanding Sectors
4. Understanding Place
5. DEDJTR Model
6. Examples – Energy, Regional Tourism
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 4
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 5
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 6
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 7
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 8
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 9
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
VICTORIA HAS THE FASTEST POPULATION GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA, DRIVEN BY OVERSEAS MIGRATION.
Population Participation Labour productivity Real GSP/GDP growth
AUS VIC AUS
VIC
AUS VIC
AUS VIC
to to to
Contributions to Victorian real GSP growth and Australian real GDP growth
Per cent
Source: DEDJTR analysis based on ABS data
to
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Victoria Australia Advanced economies
Per cent
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 12
However, growth and job opportunities have varied across suburbs and regions.
(a) 12-month averages.
Source: DEDJTR analysis based on Department of Employment Small Area Labour Market data
Regional Victoria Melbourne
Victorian average = 5.7%
12
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Focus areas: Flexible arrangements to allow older workers to transition to retirement and mothers to return to work. Facilitating smoother transition for retrenched workers. Boosting youth employment, including pathways from study to employment. Reducing barriers to workforce participation for disadvantaged cohorts.
13
Labour force participation, Victoria
Source: ABS 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia, seasonally adjusted
Per cent Participation rate of people aged 65 years and over, Victoria
Source: ABS 6291.0.55.001 Labour Force, Australia Detailed
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Males Females Total
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Per cent
Increasing both productivity and participation will be critical to Victoria’s ongoing success.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Increasing economic inclusion is important for economic and social outcomes.
Breakdown of youth population (Vic)
14
Jobs Victoria Employment Network (JVEN)
• Specialist (e.g. Aboriginal, youth, retrenched workers) and multi-target group services
• Key features of JVEN model:
Flexibility: tailored to needs of jobseekers
Employer Engagement: to identify job opportunities and better meet industry needs
Complementary: addressing service gaps for jobseekers who face particular barriers
Linking employment programs to industry
need
794
523 455
38 30
224
47 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Population Total labour force Employed+ Unemployed & ineducation
Unemployed ¬ in education
Studying & NILF NILF & not ineducation
‘000s
78,000 (around 10%) of Victorian
youths are unemployed or not in
full-time education
Working or looking for
work
Not working or
looking for work Source: ABS Labour force data (Cat 6202.0 )
Note: NILF: Not in the labour force.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
There is a need to ensure that disadvantaged cohorts can participate in the workforce, and that all Victorians are equipped with skills for the future of work.
15
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1994–95 1997–98 2002–03 2007–08 2013–14
10th percentile 50th percentile
90th percentile Gini coefficient (RHS)
Household income at top of each percentile- Australia $ per week
Gini Coefficient
Job projections by skill level
Source: DAE-DEDJTR internal projections, Source: ABS Cat. 6523.0 - Household Income and Wealth
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 16
Megatrends
• New energy technologies, blockchain, artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous vehicles
Technology
• Capital and labour increasingly mobile • International trade becoming increasingly
important to Victoria
Globalisation
• Strong population growth (driven by migration)
• Ageing population
Demographics Change
• Later and staged retirement • ‘Gig’ or project work VS demand for
security • Growing female workforce participation • Continued demand for work/life balance
Changing worker preferences
• 24/7 economy • Online and mobile commerce • Ethically and environmentally sustainable
economy
Changing consumer preferences
• Global agreements on carbon emissions
• Impacts on location of agriculture activities
• Extreme weather events
Climate change
• Peer to peer • Subscription services
New business models
Victoria’s economy will be shaped by a range of global and domestic megatrends.
These have broad ranging implications for Victoria’s
future
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Source: ABS SA2 population data (Cat no. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, Australia) Note: regional city population estimates are based on SA2s that capture the urban centres of the regional city LGAs.
Victoria (June 2016) 6,069,636
(+ 1,008,370 @ + 1.8% p.a.)
Regional Victoria (June 2016) 1,428,000
(+ 127,494 @ + 0.9% p.a.)
pop = 2016 population (at June ’16) growth = 2016 – 2006 population
Over the past decade, population has shifted towards larger regional centres and peri-urban areas.
Regional Victoria - 2016
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
This trend is projected to continue.
Source: VIF 2016 Estimated Resident Population by LGA
Population Growth, Regional Victoria Victoria (2031) 7,733,259
(+ 1,684,492 @ + 1.86% p.a.)
Regional Victoria (2031) 1,674,497
(+ 253,905 @ + 1.19% p.a.)
pop = 2031 predicted population (at June ‘31) growth = 2031 – 2016 predicted population
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 19
Industry growth has largely been a population-based story centred on cities.
• Majority of business growth in population driven services within regional centres - particularly community (including health) and tourism
• While manufacturing has declined overall there is opportunity in value added food and fibre production - food manufacturing business establishments increased by 17%
Total business establishment net change - 2000 to 2015
Source: DEDJTR analysis based on Work Safe Victoria data
68,628 total businesses (2015) +5% since 2000 Business sector mix
Since 2000 +6% -1% -5%
~624,000 jobs – 2015
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Place-based risk management and response planning is critical to supporting ongoing resilience and adaptability across Victoria.
Red Cliffs 1x Wine Manufacturing (industry risk score: medium)
VICTORIA’S ECONOMY – THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORS AND PLACE
Presentation to EDA Forum Justin Hanney, Head, Employment Investment and Trade, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources 11 August 2017