Organizers Duane Waliser & Xianan Jiang --- JPL/UCLA Jon Petch & Prince Xavier --- Met Office Steve Woolnough & Nick Klingaman --- U. Reading Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project MJO Task Force and GASS AGU San Francisco, CA December, 2012
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Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the …...Organizers Duane Waliser & Xianan Jiang --- JPL/UCLA Jon Petch & Prince Xavier --- Met Office Steve Woolnough & Nick Klingaman
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Organizers
Duane Waliser & Xianan Jiang --- JPL/UCLA
Jon Petch & Prince Xavier --- Met Office
Steve Woolnough & Nick Klingaman --- U. Reading
Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project
MJO Task Force and GASS
AGU San Francisco, CA
December, 2012
Central role of vertical structure & diabatic/moistening processes in MJO mechanisms/theories & simulation quality
Beyond interactions between heating components and large-scale circulation => multi-scale interaction, moistening processes and convective momentum transport. Majda and Stechmann (2011)
Detailed Experimentation and Comparison to Observed Vertical Structures Sorely Needed.
TRMM Diabatic Heating
Jiang et al 2009
Jiang et al 2010
CloudSat Retrievals
AIRS Temp and WV
Tian et al 2010
Availability of Vertical Profiling Satellite Products
YOTC Collocated A-Train
+ MLS, ISCCP, Calipso
C. Zhang (2011)
Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project
MJO Task Force/YOTC and GASS
1. climate simulation – multi-year simulations
coupled or atmosphere only
2. short range hindcasts – daily 48hr lead during
~20 days of the MJO
3. medium range hindcasts – daily 20-day lead
time
Time step / 2 –Day Physics Errors
Daily / Weekly Forecast Errors
Long-Term Climate Simulation Errors
www.ucar.edu/yotc/mjodiab.html
20 Yr Climatological Simulations
(1991-2010 if AGCM)
6-hr, Global Output
Vertical Structure, Physical Tendencies
Commitments: Over 40 Modeling Groups with AGCM and/or CGCM
Model MJO Fidelity
Vertical structure
Multi-scale Interactions:
(e.g., TCs, Monsoon, ENSO)
UCLA/JPL
X. Jiang
D. Waliser
2-Day MJO Hindcasts
YOTC MJO Cases E & F (winter 2009)*
Time Step, Indo-Pacific Domain Output
Very Detailed Physical/Model Processes
Heat and moisture budgets
Model Physics Evaluation
(e.g. Convection/Cloud/BL)
Short range Degradation
Met Office
P. Xavier
J. Petch
20-Day MJO Hindcasts
YOTC MJO Cases E & F (winter 2009)*
3-hr, Global Output
Elements of I & II
MJO Forecast Skill
State Evolution/Degradation
Elements of I & II
NCAS/Walker in.
N. Klingaman
S. Woolnough
*DYNAMO Case TBD
I.
II.
III.
Model Experiment Science Focus Exp. POC
Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project
MJO Task Force/YOTC and GASS
www.ucar.edu/yotc/mjodiab.html
All experiments have 3D tendency terms for T, q, u, v, condensate
budgets, radiative profiles, surface fluxes, etc.
www.ucar.edu/yotc/mjodiab.html
Participants
20 8 11
Lag-regression of rainfall with Indian Ocean (70-90E; 5S-5N) base point