Venturefest 2011 green breakfast with Peter Head

Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA | June 2011

Consultant Arup

Chairman Institute for Sustainability

Helping communities in Oxford to be more resilient and successful in recovering from the recession.

Total Community Retrofit

2

www.arup.com (ecological age)

• Can we move towards a sustainable way of living?

• What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries?

• How might might we enable communities to transitionin a resilient way to the Ecological Age?

‘Green Growth’

3

4 New York City

5 5

Source: Christopher Kennedy et al. 2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities. Environmental Science & Technology. 43(19), 7297-7302. (The data were mostly from 2005 although some cities had different years)

Oxford compares very badly with other global cities for overall GHG emissions

Oxford 2004

6

7

Our Shrinking Earth

19007.91

19505.15

19872.60

20052.02

20301.69

20501.44

Year

Hectares of land per capita

8 8

United States of America

Bra

zil

Oxfordshire United Kingdom

EU

Swaz

iland

Norway

World

FranceRussia

There are only 12 countries in the world with higher ecological footprints than Oxfordshire

Source: Global Footprint Network and SEI

9

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute

Ecological Footprint

(gha/capita)

Carbon Footprint (tonnes

CO2 /capita)

GHG Footprint (tonnes

CO2 eq/capita)

South Oxfordshire 6.12 13.93 18.78

West Oxfordshire 5.86 13.36 18.02

Vale of White Horse 5.80 13.20 17.84

South East 5.63 12.76 17.28

Cherwell 5.62 12.75 17.26

UK 5.30 12.08 16.34

Oxford 5.04 11.40 15.44

Most of Oxfordshire’s districts have poor environmental footprints

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute

Best

Worst

10

HDI Increase Human Development Index

1.44GHA/Capita Ecological Footprint(CO2 – 50%) + +

= 2050 Ecological Age

11

THE McKINSEY COST CURVE V2.0 IDENTIFIES 19 GT OF ABATEMENTS BY 2020 MAKING IT TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO ACHIEVE 450PPM

BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE• 10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture)

• 5 Gt for Energy Effiency

• 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply

12

Middle to High Income Countries

• Transition from industrial to ecological age

• City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-rural resource flows

• Model – London Climate Change Action Plan, Frieburg, Stockholm, Malmo

Investment in UK estimated £220bn to £450bn by 2050

£10k to 20k per householdThe Future is Local by SDC www.sd-

commission.org.uk

13

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles ofBiomimicry

14

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles ofBiomimicry

15

Community Leaders-Making a Good Society

Now 45 people!www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaderswww.futuresforcivilsociety.org

And role of Art and Culture www.culturefutures.org

16

Theory - Cultural Planning

Culture Discipline and Sustainable City Development

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles ofBiomimicry

18 Resource Efficiency

Food Raw Materials

Energy Water

19

Energy Consumption

IMF, BP

20

Oxfordshire households (except in Oxford) used more electricity than the average for Great Britain and the South East region in 2007

Average annual domestic electricity sales per consumer

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

GreatBritain

South East Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire

Vale ofWhiteHorse

WestOxfordshire

Region

kWh 2005

20062007

Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform

Oxfordshire residents are above-average domestic gas and electricity users

21

The average domestic gas consumption in 2007 was also above average in all Oxfordshire districts except Cherwell.

Average annual domestic gas sales per consumer

15,50016,00016,50017,00017,50018,00018,50019,00019,50020,00020,500

GreatBritain

South East Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire

Vale ofWhiteHorse

WestOxfordshire

Region

kWh

200520062007

Oxfordshire residents are above-average domestic gas and electricity users

Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform

5%

Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercial industrial sector

• More efficient supply of heat/electricity

• Improvements to physical infrastructure

• Behavioural change (switching off lights etc)

• More energy efficient new builds

50%

Contribution to overall reduction

20%

25%

23 Balancing local and national energy supply networks

24 Supergrid Vision TREC

25

Transport & Urban Density

Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy (2006) “Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence”, Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies: Vol. 2: No. 1, Article 3.

Compact City: Low rise and high density – 3 to 8 storeys/1.45 average plot ration/75 dwelling per hectares 80,000 people

26

Press Office City of Munster, Germany

27

28

Decreasing Food Supply

Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States

29

Sustainable Agriculture, Wanzhuang Eco-City

Business-as-Usual: Agricultural Food Production Dislocation from the City

Rural-urban separation

Access to sustainable practices

Upskilling through training Access to information networks Access to modern agricultural equipment

New urban-rural linkages

Eco-City Configuration: Sustainable Rural-Urban Linkage

Farming in the City

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles ofBiomimicry

Materials and WasteDrivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008)

‘Cradle to cradle’ TM

33 33

43% of household waste collected in Oxfordshire in 2008/09 was recycled

Percentage household waste recycled

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

England Countiesaverage**

Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire

Vale ofWhite Horse

WestOxfordshire

Region

Perc

enta

ge re

cycl

ed

2003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09

… recycling is increasing

Source: Oxfordshire County and District Councils

34 Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)

35

Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource

10 Principles ofBiomimicry

36

BIMIRM

3D – 4D – 5DVirtual RealityCollaboration

…

ITSRFID

BroadbandWiMAXCCTVANPR

ParkingBMS

…

Control RoomsSpecifications

D&B contractsRIBA

…

Urban Information Architecture

Tools Form and Infrastructure Management

37

38

Integrated multidisciplinary planning for delivering better performance outcomes in cities through retrofitting:

39

Integrated Resource Management

Master PlanE

nerg

y

Tran

spor

t

Food

Pro

duct

ion

Eco

nom

ics

Oth

ers

Was

te M

anag

emen

t

Logi

stic

s

Was

tew

ater

Wat

er s

uppl

yLinking the overarching masterplan to the technical disciplines

Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements

40 The System of City Life

41

GIS

IRM Link

IRM

Tech. Plan

Strate- gies

Arup’s IRM Platform

42

Framework - Refined Plan

“Our vision is to significantly advance the UK’s capability to deliver solutions for a sustainable future, by

forging practical research collaborations and sharing the outcomes regionally, nationally and internationally”

44The Total Community Retrofit Model

45Total Community Retrofit: The Approach

Phase 1 – ModelDevelopment•

Best practice review

•

Stakeholder buy‐in

•

Early phase funding

•

Priority workstreams

i. Financial/Business

Model

ii. Community ownership            

and value 

•

Select priority locations

12 mths

Phase 2 – Createlocal client•

Local steering group

•

Initial local opportunity 

analysis

•

Collaboration agreement

•

Cultural audit

•

Establish community 

structures

•

P/P/C client created

6 mths

Phase 3 –

Delivery Planning•

Conduct detailed local 

opportunity analysis

•

Create delivery body

•

Prioritise

projects and 

delivery approaches

•

Consolidate existing 

funding streams

•

Secure delivery funding

18 mths

Phase 4 ‐

Delivery•

Launch specific retrofit, 

infrastructure and 

community projects

•

Develop local supply 

chains, develop skills, 

support job creation

•

Assess progress  

through monitoring, 

measuring and 

evaluation

10‐15 yrs

Lifecycle –

validation, replication•

Measure results against expectations, collect community feedback

•

Develop knowledge transfer networks

•

Develop “replication toolkits”

•

Conduct dissemination outreach

‘But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time’

Thank you