Vehicle Borne Terrorism

Diplomatic Security

&Vehicle-Borne

Gerald T. McKenna

Terrorism

Beirut 386

Oklahoma City 168

Kenya 224

New York 3000*

• Research Questions

• Key Literature

• Hypothetical Model

• Data & Methods

• Expected Findings

• Conclusion

terrorism

- the premeditated use, or

threat of use, of extranormal

violence to obtain a political

objective through intimidation

or fear directed at a large

audience

vbied

- Vehicle Borne Improvised

Explosive Device; any that

use a vehicle as the

package for the explosive

device.

diplomatic facility

- U.S. personnel and property

falling under Chief of Mission

Control to include all

Consulates and Embassies

overseas.

Research Questions

How have specific policy

implementations affected

terrorism and targeted

states?

Intervention Analysis

Why have these actors

reacted in this way?

Theoretical Analysis

Key Literature

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0

Incidents Per Quarter

Event

Regrouping

GatheringPlanning

Training

2,2 -2,4

4,-2 0,0

2,-4

-6,6

6,-6

-4,2

Nash

-2,-2

Preempt Status Quo Deter

P

S

Q

D

Theoretical

Model

Stand-off distances

Delta-barriers

“Man-traps”

Data & Method

ITERATEInternational Terrorism: Attributes

of Terrorist Events

DoSPolitical Violence Against

Americans/Patterns of

Global Terrorism

MIPTNational Memorial Institute

for the Prevention of

Terrorism

0 1 1 1 2 2t t t tVBIED a a t bVBIED b VBIED

1983-2008

VBIED attacks on Dip. Facilities

Standoff 1985

Delta 1999

Mantrap 2004

Expected Findings

Standoff Distances Lethality

Delta Barriers Prevalence

Mantraps Prevalence

All Three

Interventions

Lethality and

Prevalence of all

other Modes and

to Softer targets

• Research Questions

• Key Literature

• Hypothetical Model

• Data & Methods

• Expected Findings

• Conclusion

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Questions?