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Document of

The World Bank

Report No. Confidential

Ethiopia: Country Economic Memorandum

BACKGROUND REPORT:

Assessing Ethiopia Growth Potential and Development Obstacles

Maps (Zonal Level) and Technical Appendix

April 22, 2004

POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT 2 COUNTRY DEPARTMENT FOR ETHIOPIA

AFRICA REGION

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in theperformance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed withoutWorld Bank authorization.

CONTENTS A. Capital Stock

1. Energy • Electricity Coverage (in Percent of Total Population)

2. Road Density

• Total Length of Road per thousands of km2 • Total Length of Road per thousands of population

3. Telecommunication

• Access to Telephone Lines per Thousands of Population • Utilized Telephone Lines per Thousands of Population • Switches per Thousands of Population

B. Water Resource

• Gross Irrigation Potential • Existing Irrigated Area

C. Human Development

1. Health • Percent of Population Vulnerable to Malaria • Percent of Total Territory Exposed to Malaria • Percent of Population Immunized • Potential Health Service Coverage • Health Professionals Distribution (Unit per Thousand of Population) • Health Infrastructure Distribution (Unit per Thousand of Population)

2. Education

• Gross Enrollment Ratio in Primary School (1-8) • Gross Enrollment Ratio in Secondary School (9-10) • Number of Schools in Primary: • Number of Schools in Secondary

3. Population

• Urban Population • Rural Population • Population Density • Percentage Share of Active Population Engaged in Non-farm

Commercial Activities D. Environment

• Zones Sharing a Border • Mean Altitude • Agro-Climatic Zones

• Length of Growing Periods • Mean Rainfall • Coefficient of Variation of Rainfall • Soil Erosion • Bio-Fuel Consumption • Soil Nutrient Losses • Cereal Equivalent to Soil Nutrient losses • Drought Risk

E. Production

1. Crop Production: • Total Production of Temporary Crop • Production of Temporary Crop per Capita • Temporary Crop Yield per Hectare • Percentage Share of Temporary Crop Marketed • Percentage Share of Teff Production • Yield of Teff (qt/ ha) • Percentage Share of Teff Marketed • Percentage Share of Maize Production • Yield of Maize (qt/ ha) • Percentage Share of Maize Marketed • Percentage Share of Wheat Production • Yield of Wheat (qt/ ha) • Percentage Share of Wheat Marketed • Percentage Share of Other Crops Production • Yield of Other Crops (qt/ ha) • Percentage Share of Other Crops Marketed • Total Production of Permanent Crop • Total Production of Permanent Crop per Capita • Permanent Crop Yield per Hectare • Percentage Share of Permanent Crops Marketed • Percentage Share of Fruit Production • Percentage Share of Stimulant Crop Production • Percentage Share of Other Permanent Crop Production • Percentage Share of Temporary Crop Area to Total Crop Area • Percentage Share of Permanent Crop Production to Total Crop

Production • Size of Cropland per Rural Household • Percentage Share of Area Under Selected Seeds • Percentage Share of Area Under Irrigation • Percentage Share of Area Under Pesticides • Application of Fertilizer per Hectare

2. Livestock Asset

• Livestock Asset per Capita • Percent of Total Territory Affected by Trypanosomiasis

Appendix 1

• Assessing Ethiopia’s Spatial Endowments and Developmental Obstacles - Definitions, Coverage, and Sources of Data

This background document was prepared by Belay Seyoum Ketema (GIS and Remote Sensing Expert), Eskender Tesfaye, Milas Seifluaziz, and Karim El Aynaoui.

CAPITAL STOCK

WATER RESOURCE

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

ENVIRONMENT

PRODUCTION

Appendix 1

Definitions, Coverage, and Sources of Data To assess the developmental obstacles and endowments of the various region of Ethiopia, we have constructed a database at the lower administrative units, i.e. Zones and Weredas.1 The variables used to geographically differentiate the various Ethiopias are classified under five broad categories: capital stock, water resource, human development, environment and production. Precise definitions and the data year are included in this note. The indicators are selected by taking into account the time factor and the availability of data at the lower administrative units i.e. Zones and Weredas. A. Capital Stock

1. Energy • Electricity Coverage (in Percent of Total Population): Share of the

population with direct and/or indirect access to electricity. Computed based on data from Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, 2002/03 & Central Statistical Authority (CSA) , 2003 Population Projection.

2. Road Density • Total Length of Road per thousands of km2: The ratio of total length of

roads, irrespective of their types, to total area. Computed based on data from Ethiopian Road Authority, 2002/03 & CSA, 2003 Population Projection.

• Total Length of Road per thousands of population: The ratio of total length of roads, irrespective of their types, to total population. Computed based on data from Ethiopian Road Authority, 2002/03 & CSA, 2003 Population Projection.

3. Telecommunication • Access to Telephone Lines per Thousands of Population: The capacity of

rendering telephone lines per thousands population. Computed based on data from Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency, 2002/03 & CSA, 2002/03 Population Projection.

• Utilized Telephone Lines per Thousands of Population: The status of the existing telephone lines per thousands population. Computed based on data from Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency, 2002/03 & CSA, 2002/03 Population Projection.

• Switches per Thousands of Population: The distribution switch per thousands population. Computed based on data from Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency, 2002/03 & CSA, 2002/03 Population Projection.

1 Zonal boundaries are taken from the CSA 1994 population census.

B. Water Resource • Gross Irrigation Potential: Land suitable for crop production using surface

water irrigation. This includes medium scale (200-3,000 hectares) and large scale (above 3,000 hectares) irrigation schemes, and consider factors such as soil fertility and depth, slope of the land and distance from the water source. Source: Basin Development Master Plan Study Department, Ministry of Water Resource and Development, 2003.

• Existing Irrigated Area: Developed and under utilization medium scale (200-3,000 hectares) and large scale (above 3,000 hectares) irrigated Land. Schemes that are not currently under utilization are excluded. Estimates. Source: Basin Development Master Plan Study Department, Ministry of Water Resource and Development, 2003.

C. Human Development

1. Health • Percent of Population Vulnerable to Malaria: Share of malaria prone

population in total population. Computed based on data from World Food Program (Country Office), 1994-2002.

• Percent of Total Territory Exposed to Malaria: Share of malaria prone areas in total territorial area. Computed based on data from World Food Program, 1994-2002.

• Percent of Population Immunized: A child of age under one who has taken all types of antigens completely. Computed based on the data obtained from the Ministry of Health, 2002/03 and CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

• Potential Health Service Coverage: The percentage of population covered by existing health centers, health stations, clinics and health posts in catchment’s area. Computed based on the data obtained from the Ministry of Health, 2002/03 and CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

• Health Professionals Distribution (Unit per Thousand of Population): The ratio of health professionals to total population. Computed based on data from the Ministry of Health, 2002/03 & CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

• Health Infrastructure Distribution (Unit per Thousand of Population): The ratio of health infrastructure to total population. Computed based on data from the Ministry of Health, 2002/03 & CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

2. Education • Gross Enrollment Ratio in Primary School (1-8): Percentage share of the

total enrollment in primary (age seven to fourteen) out of the total corresponding school age population. Computed based on data from the Ministry of Education, 2002/03 & & CSA, 2002/03 projection.

• Gross Enrollment Ratio in Secondary School (9-10): Percentage share of total enrollment in secondary schools (age 15-16) out of the corresponding

school age population. Computed based on data from the Ministry of Education, 2002/03 & CSA, 2002/03 projection.

• Number of Schools in Primary: The number of school buildings from grade one to grade eight. Source: Ministry of Education, 2002/03.

• Number of Schools in Secondary: The number of school buildings with grade nine and ten. Source: Ministry of Education, 2002/03.

3. Population • Urban Population: Population in all capitals of regions, zones and weredas

whose inhabitants are primary engaged in non-agricultural activities. Source: CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

• Rural Population: Population engaged primarily in agricultural activities. Source: CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

• Population Density: The ratio of total population to total area (in km2). Source: CSA, 2002/03 population projection.

• Percentage Share of Active Population Engaged in Non-farm Commercial Activities: Percentage share of active population aged ten years and above engaged in non-agricultural activities. Computed based on data from CSA, National Labor Force Survey, 1999 and CSA, 2002/03 Population Projection.

D. Environment

• Zones Sharing a Border: Zones sharing a border with neighboring countries. Source: Ethiopian Mapping Authority, Topographic Map of Ethiopia, 2002.

• Mean Altitude: Mean altitude above sea level weighted by the size of the area. Source: Ethiopian Mapping Authority, Topographic Map of Ethiopia, 2002.

• Agro-Climatic Zones: o Lower Kolla: Area with less than 500 m asl & less than 900 mm

distribution of annual rainfall. o Upper Kolla: Area ranging from 500 to 1,500 m asl & less than 1,400

mm distribution of annual rainfall. o Dega & Weyna Dega: Area ranging from 1,500 to 3,200 m asl & above

900 mm distribution of annual rainfall. Source: Humi Hans, 1986: Soil Conservation Research Project Department, Ministry of Agriculture; Community Forest and Soil Conservation Development Department.

• Length of Growing Periods: The number of days in a growing period that occur with a frequency of four out five years (i.e. only 80 percent of the time). Source: Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project, Ministry of Agriculture, 2002.

• Mean Rainfall: Average rainfall over last twenty years. Source: National Metrological Services Agency.

• Coefficient of Variation of Rainfall: Computed by using isohyets of mean annual rainfall. Source: National Metrological Services Agency, Climatic

and Agro Climatic Resources of Ethiopia – Metrological Research Report Series, Volume 1, No. 1, January 1996.

• Soil Erosion: Soil loss in tons per hectare per year, estimates for 2000. Computed based on data from Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project, Ministry of Agriculture, 2002.

• Bio-Fuel Consumption: Residuals and dung consumption for fuel purpose in rural, urban, and commercial service establishments, estimates for 2000. Source: Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project, Ministry of Agriculture, 2002.

• Soil Nutrient Losses: Loss of soil nutrients (phosphorous and nitrogen in tons) ensued from burning crop residues and dung, estimates for 2000. Source: Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project, Ministry of Agriculture, 2002.

• Cereal Equivalent to Soil Nutrient losses: The foregone crop production as a result of nutrient losses (nitrogen and phosphorous) from the soil, estimates for 2000. Source: Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project, Ministry of Agriculture, 2002.

• Drought Risk: The coefficient of variation (Cv) is an accepted statistical measure and proxy indicator for drought risk. This drought risk indicator incorporates both the Cv values from the vegetation imagery, as well as the Cv values from the rainfall estimates. The period 21st June through end of October was used to calculate the Cv values. Share of malaria prone areas in total territorial area. Computed based on data from World Food Program, 1982-1998. Computed by World Food Program/ Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Unit, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2003.

E. Production

1. Crop Production: • Total Production of Temporary Crop: Production of crops under private

peasant holdings, grown in less than a year’s time and harvested in Meher (main) Season, between September and February. Data is five years average, 1996/97-2000/01. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, Reports of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Production of Temporary Crop per Capita: Total production of temporary crops divided by total population (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, Reports of 1996/97-2000/01 and CSA: Population Statistics, 1996/97-2000/01).

• Temporary Crop Yield per Hectare: Total production of temporary crops per hectare (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Temporary Crop Marketed: Share of temporary crops sold in total production. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Teff Production : Share of teff production in the total production of temporary crops (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01).

Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Yield of Teff (qt/ ha): Total production of teff per hectare (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Teff Marketed: Share of teff production sold. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Maize Production : Total production of maize in the total production of temporary crops (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Yield of Maize (qt/ ha): Total production of maize per hectare (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Maize Marketed: Share of maize production sold. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Wheat Production : Share of wheat production in the total production of temporary crops (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Source: CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Yield of Wheat (qt/ ha): Total production of wheat per hectare (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Wheat Marketed: Share of wheat production sold. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01 and Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Other Crops Production : Share of other crops in the total production of temporary crops (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Yield of Other Crops (qt/ ha): Total production of other crops per hectare (five years average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Other Crops Marketed: Percentage share of other crops production sold. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01 and Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Total Production of Permanent Crop: Total production of long term crops–private peasant holdings. It includes tree crops such as fruit crop, stimulant crop, other crop (sugar cane, enset, etc.). Source: CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Total Production of Permanent Crop per Capita: Total production of long term crops divided by total population. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02 and CSA, Population Statistics, 2001/02.

• Permanent Crop Yield per Hectare: Production of permanent crops per hectare. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Permanent Crops Marketed : Share of permanent crop sold. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Fruit Production: Share of fruit production in total production of permanent crop. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Stimulant Crop Production: Share of stimulant crop production in total production of permanent crop. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Other Permanent Crop Production: Share of other permanent crop production in total production of permanent crop. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Temporary Crop Area to Total Crop Area: Share of area used for temporary crops in the total area used for temporary and permanent cropping. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01 and Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Permanent Crop Production to Total Crop Production: Share of permanent crop production in the total production of temporary and permanent crops. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01 and Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Size of Cropland per Rural Household: Distribution of total crop area (both temporary and permanent crop areas) per rural household. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

• Percentage Share of Area Under Selected Seeds: Share of selected seeds applied in the total area under temporary crop (average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Area Under Irrigation: Share of irrigated crop area in the total area under temporary crops (average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Percentage Share of Area Under Pesticides: Share of pesticide applied in the total area under temporary crop (average, 1996/97-2000/01). Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01.

• Application of Fertilizer per Hectare: Ratio of total quantity of chemical fertilizer applied to total temporary and permanent crops area. Computed based on CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey, publications of 1996/97-2000/01 and Agricultural Sample Enumeration, 2001/02.

2. Livestock Asset: • Livestock Asset per Capita (Tropical livestock Unit per Capita): The ratio

of “tropical livestock units” to rural population. One tropical unit is roughly equal to 250 Kgs of live animal weight. The species considered were cattle, sheep, goats, donkeys, mules, horses, and camels. Computed based on data from Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project, Ministry of Agriculture, 2002 and CSA, 2002/03 Population Projection.

• Percent of Total Territory Affected by Trypanosomiasis: Share of Tsetse infested areas in total territorial areas. Computed based on data from National Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Investigation and Control Center, Ministry of Agriculture, 2003.