Low climate IMpact scenarios and the Implications of required Tight emission control Strategies The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 282846 (LIMITS) Pathways towards 2°C: Global pathways and implications for European climate policy Detlef van Vuuren, Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler and Keywan Riahi
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Low climate IMpact scenarios and the Implications of required
Tight emission control Strategies
The research leading to these results has received funding from the
European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013
under grant agreement n° 282846 (LIMITS)
Pathways towards 2°C: Global pathways and implications for European climate policy
Detlef van Vuuren, Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler andKeywan Riahi
Global emission pathways and carbon budgets
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
5220-6250 GtCO2
3630-4970 GtCO2
1000-1570 GtCO2
670-1100 GtCO2
2.9-5.9°C
0%
2.4-4.7°C
0-4%
1.5-2.7°C
41-64%
1.4-2.4°C
59-76%
Cumulative CO2 emissions 2011-2100 Warming since preindustrialProb. of staying below 2°C
2C requires early peaking of emissions and small CO2 budgets
The 4 phases of 2oC pathways
Peak in 2020
Steep emissions reduction
Carbon neutrality Carbon
dioxide removal
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
Trend break in decarbonization rates
2020-30 decarbonization rate:
450 ppm immediate action
500 ppm immediate action
2005-2010 decarbonization rate
2°C 550 ppm 2°C 450 ppm
Rate of reduction in carbon intensity of GDP (2010-2040)
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics 4(4), 1340008.
Durban Failure: delay until 2030 will likely put 2°C out of reach
Steeper decline after 2030
More carbon dioxide removal
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
5
Implications for the major economies
Deep emissions reduction necessary
6
• Deep and rapid reductions needed in a major economies