ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

1/13

November 8, 2013

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VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that oeraluation is at leelst!"icall! seen #hen mar$et "ull%ac$s occur. Oeralued stoc$s no# ma$eu" &'.(() of our stoc$s assigned a aluation and *(.+&) of those e,uitiesare calculated to %e oeralued %! -) or more. ALL sectors arecalculated to %e oeralued/'0 of them %! dou%le digits.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Inde1 Wee$ O"en Thurs. 2lose 2hange ) 2hange 3T4

45IA %&(%"( %&!&)*"++ 6-(.- 6.'() '7.)

NA84A9 ,),(" ,!&.",, 6(0.-( 6'.7') -(.(0)

RU88ELL - %+)"( %!+.)"+) 6'7.0+ 6'.(&) -(.0)

8; 0 %.,"* %!.*."%& 6'

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

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SECTOR OVERVIEW

8ector 2hange =T4 3T4 Valuation Last '-6=Return

;>ERatio

Aeros"ace -+"/ +"(./ ,,"**/ ("&./ overvalued *%"/ %."+.

Auto6Tires6Truc$s -%"&+/ -%"*/ *("++/ (*")%/ overvalued &%"(./ (+"%,

?asic =aterials -%"&./ -%"+,/ "&/ "&/ overvalued -(*"/ (+"(*

?usiness 8erices -%".%/ -%"/ ,+"(/ (*"),/ overvalued ,,"*)/ (&",.

2om"uter and Technolog! -%"&./ -%"+&/ ,&"%/ (."(./ overvalued ()"/ ,+"&.

2onstruction -%"%+/ -+")/ ,&")+/ %.")%/ overvalued ,+".(/ ("+,

2onsumer 4iscretionar! -%"(+/ -%"+*/ ,"()/ ("&,/ overvalued ,"&/ (."**2onsumer 8ta"les -%".+/ -%"(%/ (,"%/ (("+/ overvalued (,"*(/ (,")

@inance -%"%%/ -%"(+/ (*"+(/ (%"+&/ overvalued %&"*./ %.")%

Industrial ;roducts -%"(/ -+"%/ ,)"(,/ (&"*/ overvalued ,."(/ (,".%

=edical -%"(/ -+")./ ,*"&%/ (+"*&/ overvalued ,%"(+/ (."&%

=ulti68ector 2onglomerates -%"+./ -%"((/ %,".,/ ,%"+./ overvalued (+",/ (+"&(

Oils6Energ! -%")./ -%"&/ ("(&/ %"++/ overvalued %+",./ (".

Retail6Wholesale -%"%*/ -+"(&/ ,&"/ (*"/ overvalued ,."%(/ (*"*

Trans"ortation -%"*/ -+",/ ()"*./ (")/ overvalued ,&"+./ (+"()

Utilities -("&)/ -(".%/ %")(/ %&"(*/ overvalued %&"&)/ (+"*&

ValuEngne Ne!"le##er" $a#e"# Re"ul#"

VE Ne#sletter 2urrent=onth Total

8;0

Last =onthTotal

8;0

8inceInce"tion

8;0

@orecast =N8 '.0 '.*7 *.& '.77 ''-.

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

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Se%#or Tal&'Mul#(Se%#or Conglomera#e"

Below, we present the latest data on leading Multi-Sector ConglomeratesSector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI. These results werefiltered by market price and volume--no results below !"share or less than #$$k

shares"day volume.

To"6@ie =ulti68ector 2onglomerates 8ector 8toc$s668hort6Term @orecastReturns

Tic$er Name =$t ;rice Valuation)B Last '-6=Retn)B

IE; I0123 E3TE454I6 %%+"(. 371 %&"%

LCU 869 I3:6 I30 ,+"&( -%*"( -(+",%

@88 ;E: 6I4 I30 &"*. ((",* ()".

To"6@ie =ulti68ector 2onglomerates 8ector 8toc$s66Long6Term @orecastReturns

Tic$er Name =$t ;rice Valuation)B Last '-6=Retn)B

IE; I0123 E3TE454I6 %%+"(. 371 %&"%

LCU 869 I3:6 I30 ,+"&( -%*"( -(+",%

@88 ;E: 6I4 I30 &"*. ((",* ()".

To"6@ie =ulti68ector 2onglomerates 8ector 8toc$s662om"osite 8core

Tic$er Name =$t ;rice Valuation)B Last '-6=Retn)B

T32 T?0> I3T8 8T: ,&". (") ()"%.

UTC @T: TE026 0>45 %+."(. %("% ,"+)DON 2>3E?WE88 I3T8 &"* (+"%, ,."&.

TCT TE=T4>3 I30 ()", %,",) (%")%

2R 0413E 0> ("(( (%"(, *

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

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To"6@ie =ulti68ector 2onglomerates 8ector 8toc$s66=ost Oeralued

Tic$er Name =$t ;rice Valuation)B Last '-6=Retn)B

=I2 A10B@14IE I3;41 &,"% %)"+. ((")(

28L 0148I68E 0>6 I3 .(",, ," ()"(%

2O4I 0>A5166 :IVE46; %"** ,".. ()",%

ITT ITT 0>45 ,)"( ,%"%& +"*

GE

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

5/13

W-a#." /o#"" Valuations .each Very 1igh &evels

The 1alu*ngine 1aluation Model tracks more than ;$$$ 4S e6@.

's of yesterday%s close, we now calculate that almost ;6A of stocks are

overvalued and 7A of stocks are overvalued by 6$A or more. These are the highestreadings we can recall. Combine this with the fact that '// sectors are nowcalculated to be overvalued--#@ of them by double-digit margins--and we find that

the market is really getting overheated in relation to current earnings levels.

=e thus remind investors once again that now is no time to get complacent. &nthe past, overvaluation levels this high have correlated fairly well to market pull

backs. 2f course, those figures were not posted in an era of D* on the part of the8ed, and they were not posted in this sort of economic recovery. =e believe therecovery still has room to run barring some sort of self-inflicted budgetary nonsense

from =ashington,. =e also believe that 8ed nominee 5ellen will pay more than lipservice to the 8ed%s 2T(*+ mandate--employment. The market remains the only realgame in town as far as returns go these days, and we are getting some &2 mania

reminiscent of a happier time as well. These factors should allow the bull to run further,but still, overvaluation in e9cess of ;$A is truly unprecedented.

Investors are reminded to remain cautious against a move to the downside.

Keep a close eye on the market, set some stop losses to preserve gains, and

consider booking some profits.

!ubscribers "et #$LL %CCE!!to our &arket an' !ector verviews

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

6/13

The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from Eanuary 6$# until today.

This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in e9cess of @$A vs the S@$$ from Eune 6$#6 to the present.

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

7/13

This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in e9cess of @$A vs the S@$$ from March 6$$7 to the present.

&n addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis '// sectorsare calculated to be overvalued. &n the past, our Chief Market Strategist +ichard

Suttmeier has used the sector valuation figures to buttress his macro market calls. This

is another indicator that investors should consider implementing additional riskmanagement tools and/or booking some profits.

))ValuEngine (warded %ES) $F )1E #E) 0y ((II

The 'merican 'ssociation of &ndividual &nvestors ''&& was founded in #F7; by0r. Eames Cloonan. &ts purpose is to distill current financial theory and academic

knowledge in a manner which allows its members to beat the market. &n short, ''&&%s

philosophy and membership base is a perfect match for 1alu*ngine%s variousnewsletters, website services, and other products.

1alu*ngine clients access proprietary stock valuation data on more than $$$4S e

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

8/13

1alu*ngine is always searching for self-directed investors who recogni:e thevalue of our services--Gust like the members of ''&&, and for that reason we are proudto announce that we were recently selected one of ''&&%s HBest of the )et 6$#H

website services for stock valuations. ''&& notes thatI

=hile it is easy to find the current price of a stock, deciding whether the

market is undervaluing or overvaluing the stock is a challenge. Stockvaluation and ratings websites will typically offer an intrinsic value estimatebased on future cash flows, growth rates, market conditions or a

combination of several fundamental and risk factors. . . . The top valuationsites allow the user to specify underlying fundamental assumptions basedon their own research.

&t is important to note that in an era of free content, apps, and services,1alu*ngine was the only fee-based service to win a stock valuation award from ''&&,and that this is not the first time we have been honored by ''&& for our services.

1alu*ngine has won HBest of the )etH for many years in-a-row.

1alu*ngine C*2 aul (enneman noted that Has a company 1alu*ngine%s

founding principles-- to meld cutting-edge academic theory with the best =all St.real-world practices-- have always found favor with knowledgeable investors insearch of obGective and agenda-free market research. So, we are pleased to be

recogni:ed by ''&& for yet another year.H

1alu*ngine%s ''&& HBest of the )etH award for stock valuation comes on theheels of recent recognition from B)5 Eaywalk for HBest Stock Calls of D6 6$#.H

Su##meer Sa"""2ommentary and (nalysis from 2hief Market Strategist .ichardSuttmeier

If you have any co**ents or +uestions, sen' the* to

Rsutt*eier"*ail-co*

.reasury /iel's#$-5ear--6.>$ 0aily, monthly and semiannual value levels are

6.>>, 6.;6F and .667 with annual, weekly, , 6.;$, 6.6@6 and #.F;#.

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

9/13

Co**o'ities an' #ore0

Come9 3old J#$>.@ 0aily, weekly and monthly value levels are !#6;7.>, !#6;.6and !##7#.; with , !#@FF.F and !#;@6.#.

)yme9 Crude 2il J !F.$ 0aily and weekly value levels are !F#.;> and !F#.F@ with

monthly, semiannual, and !##@.6.

The *uro J #.#@ 0aily, monthly, annual, and #.677 with weekly and annual risky levels at#.F# and #.6F@.

&a1or In'ices

0aily 0owI #@,@F Semiannual and annual value levels are #,76 and

#6,>F> with a daily pivot at #@,>;7, the )ov. 7 all-time high at #@,7F7.>;, andweekly, monthly, semiannual and ,#>6,#>,F$ and #>,77@.

S @$$ J #77.$ Semiannual and annual value levels are #>$>.F, #$$.7

and #;. with a semiannual and daily pivots at #7.@ and #7>6., the2ct. $ all-time high at #[email protected], and weekly, monthly and >; and6;$> with a daily pivot at ;F, the 2ct. $ multi-year high at F>>.7#, andmonthly, weekly and with a daily pivot at @F, the 2ct. $ multi-year high at $;.>7,

and monthly, weekly and and 77.

0ow Transports J >F# 'nnual value levels are @F6@ and @>F with monthly,

semiannual and daily pivots at >F67, 7#$ and 7$#, the )ov. all time highat 7##.;$, and weekly and and 76$@.

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

10/13

+ussell 6$$$ J #$7F.76 'nnual value levels are ;>$.6@ and ;$F.@ with dailyand semiannual pivot at #$;.67 and #$;F.6, the 2ct. $ all time high at

##6.6>, and monthly, weekly and .6#.

The S2K J [email protected]$ My annual value level is ;.$ with a daily pivot at

@$>.6, the 2ct. # multi-year high at @#$.#7, and monthly, weekly, , @#.;7 and @.@>.

0ow 4tilitiesI @$.@> My semiannual value level is ;#.F6 with a daily pivotat @$.$F, and weekly, monthly, , @#.>6, @6$.@@, @6. and @$.7.

!tock of the 2ay

2ne of the more popular features of +ichard Suttmeier%s Morning Briefing for investorsis his stock of the day. &n every issue, Suttmeier highlights one stock and provides 1*

data as well as his own proprietary technical data.

(ere is today%s stock of the day from +ichard Suttmeier%s Morning Briefing )ewsletter.

0 + (orton 0(& J !#;.@6 0.+. (orton, &nc., one of the largest homebuilders in the

4nited States, builds high

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

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8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

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#ow -$3 can take advantage of the samemarket and trading e4pertise as the financialmedia with .ichard Suttmeier!s Valu)rader Model Portfolio

The 1aluTrader ortfolio )ewsletter is based on 1alu*ngine Chief MarketStrategist +ichard Suttmeier%s proprietary market analytics. Suttmeier combines his

technical analysis e9pertise with 1alu*ngine%s proprietary valuation, forecast, andratings data for more than $$$ e

8/14/2019 ValuEngine Weekly:Icahn,DR Horton,Conglomerates,Valuations,AAII Award, and Suttmeier

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ValuEngne%om Tool" an+ Serv%e"

=e provide a variety of means for accessing 1alu*ngine market analysis andother content. 5ou can find us on some of the leading financial media websites aswell as the more popular social media services. =hile our own website

ValuEngine-co*provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to

receive email daily and weekly bulletinsHERE, some users prefer to download 08reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web.

2ur Chief Market Strategist +ichard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer andyou can find his content in a variety of places. (is weekly column on 8orbes providesinsights into his HBuy and TradeH strategy while his daily market analysis can be

followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior *ditor Steve (ach

re-posts 08s and web-accessible copies of 0aily and =eekly 1alu*ngine bulletins atSeeking 'lpha and Scribd.

&n most cases, you can receive notification of 1* content posting by Suttmeierand (ach by following the 1alu*ngine feed on twitter ?1alu*ngine. /inks for thiscontent are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

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*al 4ulle#n 5*)", Wee&l Ne!"le##er 5*)", an+ 5*)

Re"ear%- Re6or#"