ValuEngine Capital Management Portfolio Manager Brian Brogan Discusses Downgrade and We Revisit his June 10, 2011 Market Call

8/6/2019 ValuEngine Capital Management Portfolio Manager Brian Brogan Discusses Downgrade and We Revisit his June 10, 2011 Market Call

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August 10, 2011

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ValuEngine Capital Management Portfolio Manager Brian BroganDiscusses Downgrade and We Revisit his June 10, 2011 Market Call

Brian Brogan is a portfolio manager and COO for Value Engine Capital

Management. He specializing in risk management and technical analysis.Brogan served on both the retail and institutional sides for several leadingfinancial firms including Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, LPL Financial, RevenueShares ETFs, H.G. Wellington & Co. Inc, PNC Bank, ING America, US Allianz,and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Brogan has over 12 years of experience onWall Street working with some of the largest fund managers in North America.Brian specializes in Behavioral Finance.

ValuEngine Capital Management Portfolio Manager Brian

Brogan appeared on the Philadelphia, PA FOX affiliate this weekend

to discuss the Standard and Poor's US credit downgrade. We have been receiving

lots of inquiries from clients vis-a-vis the downgrade and the prospects for theeconomy and equities so for today's bulletin we are providing a link to Brogan's

appearance.

8/6/2019 ValuEngine Capital Management Portfolio Manager Brian Brogan Discusses Downgrade and We Revisit his June 10, 2011 Market Call

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Click HERE or on the image below to watch a clip of Brogan on FOX 29's businessreport

We also wanted to revisit one of Brogan's recent market calls in which he

predicted the recent market decline as well as the US bond rate with a stunning

degree of accuracy. We welcome Brogan's addition to our line up of analysts and

believe that his knowledge and savvy market calls will bolster our ability to advise

investors and protect their assets.

The following is an excerpt of Brogan's column published on June 10, 2011 and

sent out to subscribers. An archived copy can be found HERE. In light of recent

events, we revisit the call so that you can see that Brogan made a very precise and

accurate prediction.

Today, many are looking for the proverbial next shoe to fall." The easiest

way to do this is to find out where risk is being downplayed or hidden.

Once you discover where the risk is being removed from the market, you

can spot the latest bubble.

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In 2007, the destruction of the housing market-- with its liar loans, no docloans, 2/28 ARMs, CDOs, CDSs, and all the other bubble accoutrements--

was a little easier to understand because real estate, at its heart, is an asset

class that is tangible and transparent. But when it comes to understanding

other asset classes subject to bubbles-- like Commodities, Fixed Income,

and/or derivatives, most investors are lost in translation.

Indeed, even professionals typically deal in specific asset classes so unless

they are a generalist they usually follow a herd mentality when it comes to

their own trades. One must understand the risk involved in different asset

classes and how they relate to each other in order to navigate through aglobal market which provides numerous opportunities for bubbles and

black swans.

We are closing in on 2 years of this Bull market and we may not have

much further to go, and by the looks of todays market and new IPOs like

Linkedin trading at 30x sales it may be time to look for cover. In the current

investing environment, managers are concerned with non-correlated

assets-- an asset class which does not go down when the S&P 500 goes

down. The key to contrarian investing is to start to leave the party just asothers are starting to arrive. The best place is cash, but this doesnt pay to

stay, so do you venture into Bonds for yield?

The bond market has been on a nice up trend in price since February of

this year. This is good news if your Ben Bernanke because the general

investor is now doing the heavy lifting for the Fed. But one needs to be

concerned over the debt-ceiling debate now on the big screen in

Washington. If this spooks the market, you could see a drop in bond prices

as the weak hands close out of their short term trade with a gain. You

could see a 6 or 7% handle and a attractive price if this were to happen in

the upcoming days and weeks.

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In this sort of environment, I look to the following position:

Short S&P 500

Cash Looking for Ten-Year Yield Target @2.4%

Want to know what's next for bonds and the market? Contact VE CapitalManagement's Brian Brogan.

Interested in receiving Brogan's market analysis when it is available? Then--if youhave not done so already--subscribe to our free weekly newsletterHERE.

Interested in using Brogan's market savvy and the analytical power of ValuEngine tomanage your assets? Then go HERE for details and contact info.

8/6/2019 ValuEngine Capital Management Portfolio Manager Brian Brogan Discusses Downgrade and We Revisit his June 10, 2011 Market Call

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Summary of VE Stock UniverseStocks Undervalued 84.40%

Stocks Overvalued 15.60%

Stocks Undervalued by 20% 52.38%

Stocks Overvalued by 20% 5.17%

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn

P/ERatio

Aerospace 3.15% -10.07% 7.34% 18.38% undervalued 8.27% 19.9

Auto-Tires-Trucks 5.08% -17.40% -27.82% 25.56% undervalued 10.74% 15.72

Basic Materials 5.58% -13.21% -18.52% 21.49% undervalued 28.90% 24.14

Business Services 3.83% -11.31% -7.88% 18.95% undervalued 4.39% 22.19

Computer and Technology 4.17% -12.12% -9.60% 22.84% undervalued 8.72% 37.75

Construction 5.13% -13.29% -24.72% 24.41% undervalued -13.44% 39.71

Consumer Discretionary 4.40% -11.54% -10.72% 21.86% undervalued 6.18% 30.68

Consumer Staples 3.53% -9.73% -14.23% 13.77% undervalued 4.07% 17.21

Finance 5.60% -9.10% -8.64% 18.24% undervalued -0.93% 23.69

Industrial Products 4.25% -12.94% -13.68% 23.29% undervalued 10.29% 18.83

Medical 4.36% -11.25% -5.33% 23.54% undervalued 2.73% 28.6

Multi-Sector Conglomerates 3.40% -12.21% -14.12% 18.95% undervalued 8.51% 21.53

Oils-Energy 5.93% -16.57% -17.87% 22.31% undervalued 14.39% 44.96

Retail-Wholesale 4.53% -9.45% -3.36% 16.99% undervalued 14.24% 23.49

Transportation 4.95% -12.28% -17.46% 12.74% undervalued -5.17% 16.54

Utilities 4.54% -6.95% -5.03% 8.33% undervalued 6.65% 25.07