Value - focused thinking as a problem structuring method Markus Hartikainen (PhD) Postdoctoral researcher [email protected]
Value-focused thinking as a problem structuring method
Markus Hartikainen (PhD)
Postdoctoral researcher
Phases of decision making
Decis
ion
pro
ble
m/o
pp
ort
un
ity
Imp
lem
en
tatio
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actio
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Inspired by:
Ana Barcus&Gilberto Montibeller: Supporting the allocation of software development work in
distributed teams with multi-criteria decision analysis, Omega 36 (2008), pages 464 – 475
Divergent and convergent phase may
alternate before the conclusion is reached!
Phases of decision making
Framing the decision
– ”What are we deciding about?”
Divergent phase
– ”Who are the stakeholders?”
– ”What do we care about (i.e.
our values)?”
– ”What are our options?”
– ”What are the risks?”
Convergent phase
– Modelling the problem
– Evaluating the options w.r.t. the
values
– Decision making
– Optimizing
– Evaluating and minimizing the
risks
Topic of this lecture
Stakeholder analysis
Franco LA and Montibeller G (2011) Problem structuring for multi-criteria decision analysis interventions. In: Cochran JJ, Cox Jr LA, Keskinocak P, Kharoufeh JP and Smith JC (eds). Wiley Encyclopaedia of Operations Research and Management Science.Wiley: New York.
Inte
rest
PowerHigh
High
Low
”Subjects” ”Players”
”Crowd” ”Context setters”
Problem structuring methods
Help answer the questions
– ”What do we care about (i.e. our values)?”
– ”What are our options?”
– ”What are the risks?”
Try to make sure that everything is accounted for
Simplify the jump to the convergent phase by having
structured information
Examples of problem structuring methods
*) Rosenhead & Mingers (editors), Rational Analysis for
a Problematic World Revisited, 2001, Wiley
**) http://cognexus.org/
SODA (Strategic Options Development and Analysis)*– Cognitive maps
SSM (Soft Systems Methodology)*– A seven-stage methodology
Strategic Choice Approach (SCA)*– A way to distinguish different elements of
the problem
Dialogue Mapping**
?Value-focused thinking (VFT)Cognitive map on restructuring an organization
from
http://www.banxia.com/dexplore/resources/whats-
in-a-name/
Value-focused thinking
” The standard way of thinking about decisions is
backwards … people focus first on identifying
alternatives rather than on articulating values”.
Values are what we care about. They should be the
driving force for our decision making. …
Alternatives are merely the means to better achieve the
values. (paraphrased)
Prof. Ralph Keeney 1996
Value-focused thinking is not a
single method, but instead a an
approach to decision making that
can employ different methods!
Alternative versus value-focused thinking
The typical way to make decisions
Alternative-focused thinking
1. Recognize a decision
problem/opportunity
2. Identify decision
alternatives
3. Specify values
4. Evaluate alternatives
5. Select an alternative
Value-focused thinking
1. Recognize a decision
problem/opportunity
2. Specify values
3. Create decision
alternatives
4. Evaluate alternatives
5. Select an alternative
Alternative versus value-focused thinking
Alternative-focused thinking
is
1. Backward
2. Constrained
3. Reactive
Value-focused thinking
is
1. Forward
2. Creative
3. Proactive
R.L. Keeney (2011) Value-Focused Thinking Tutorial. Informs
Conference, Charlotte, USA.
Why value-focused thinking for problem
structuring?
• Methods for expressing the real-world mess with a set of values
• value-trees
• workshops
• cognitive maps
• structured dialogue
• etc.
• There exists a nice theoretical
bacground
Ultimate values
(e.g., good product,
thriving business)
Fundamental values
(e.g., cost, CO2 emissions)
Specific
decision
context
Broader decision context
(i.e., all the decisions you make)
Ends
Means
Group excercise
Imagine that you are choosing your Master/PhD thesis topic
What are the values that you care about?
– I.e., what makes a topic good or bad?
Write down as many values as you can during 5 minutes.
Now select all the values relevant to you from the following list:
Is of interest to you
Allows you to work with interesting people
Is a good match with your talents
Improves you future career prospects
Allows you to learn new stuff
Is of interest to other people
Knowledgeable supervisors are available and are willing to teach you
Research freedom from supervisor
Involves travelling e.g. collaboration, collect and analyze data
Funding available to do research
Internationally reputed supervisor
Requires a reasonable amount of work to complete
Allows you to get a good grades
Is challenging enough
There is good literature available for you
Fits your previous studies
Has not been studies recently at your institute
Helps me make good networking contacts
Provides information to help select a job after graduation
Easy to finish thesis
Industry oriented
Now answer the following questions:
How many values did you generate when you first wrote them
down?
How many values did you select from the list?
How many of the three most important values were among
those you first write down?
Results of experiments on similar exercises:
We often generate about half of the relevant values
The values that are missed are not trivial, but instead roughly
as important as those identified at first
This phenomenon happens also if you think that you know the
problem well (e.g. professional and personal decisions)
First studies were conducted with MBA students selecting an
internship in [1]
[1] Samuel D. Bond, Kurt A. Carlson, Ralph L. Keeney, Generating
objectives: can decision makers articulate what they want?, Management
Science 54, pages 56-70, 2008
Devices for identifying fundamental values
Generating a wist list of what you would like to achieve
Comparing alternatives
Thinking about potential roblems and shortcomings
Thinking about consequences
Goals, constraints and guidelines
Thinking about different perspectives
Thinking about ultimate values (what do you care about the most in life?)
Generic values (what do you usually care about?)
Structuring objectives (why-how)
Quantifying objectives
Ralph L. Keeney, http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/creativity-in-decision-
making-with-valuefocused-thinking/
Value tree
Allow you to structure
objectives
Can be filled by asking
why and how questions
A good thesis topic
Career
prospectsInterest
Networking
Why?
How?
Properties of a value tree
Value relevance: considers fundamental objectives
Undestandability: clear meaning to decision makers
Non-redundancy: avoid double values
Preferential independence: performance on one value should
not depend on the performances on other values
Balance completeness with conciceseness
(Measurability: possible to measure performances)
V. Belton & T. Stewart (2002) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis –
An Integrated Approach. Kluwer.
Attributes
When defining values, one should not think about their measurability
Only once the values have been defined one should think about measurability of the bottom ones – often requires defining attributes
Natural attribute measures directly the achievement of a value (e.g. rental cost when selecting an office location)
Proxy attribute measures indirectly the achievement of a value (e.g. time for commuting as a proxy for distance between home and office)
Constructed attribute measures directly the achievement of a value when there isn’t a natural attribute (e.g. office comfort defined by a set of qualitative levels)
See: Ralph L. Keeney and Robin S. Gregory, Selecting Attributes to
Measure the Achievement of Objectives, Operations Research 53,
2005
4 “Sins” in defining a value tree and attributes
1. Excluding hard-to-measure values
2. Including non-essential values that have easy-to-measure
attributes
3. Making a proxy attribute, when a natural attribute is available
4. Trying to measure every consequence
Modified from Gilberto Montibeller, 7 ”sins” in assessing performance of
strategies, Jyväskylä International Summer School, 2013, Modelling
Strategic Decisions
From value-focused thinking to multiobjective
optimization
Optimization problems have objectives, constraints and variables
– The objectives are optimized by changing the values of the variables. The solution must satisfy the constraints.
Attributes should be reflected by objectives
Constraints should reflect (technical or other) requirements
Different alternativies should be described by different values of the Variables
Summary
Decision making has different phases before the conclusion is reached
In divergent phase the essential things about the problem are searched for
Value-focused thinking is an approach to decision making where the values are first identified
Methods are needed to find all the relevant values
The structured decision problems can often be represented as optimization problems