ValSServ_Long Document_A_Business_Network_Approach to Support Complex Operations 2011 v1

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Valued Sustainable Services a Business Network Approach to support Complex Operations

1 | Dr. Linton Wells II and Dr. Ralph Welborn [email protected]

Valued Sustainable Services -

Building Sustainable Capacity through Bottom-Up Projects

A Business Network Approach for Sustainable Impact

Dr. Linton Wells II and Dr. Ralph Welborn

Center for Technology & National Security Policy

National Defense University

2011

[email protected] and [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Table of Contents

Context and Executive Overview .................................................................................................................. 4

II. Valued Sustainablel Services A Brief Recap from VALSSERV Paper #1................................................ 8

III. The Foundation of VALSSERV-A Insights and Its Implications A Recap ............................................. 13

1. Network Focus ................................................................................................................ 13

2. Network Shapes Matter .................................................................................................. 14

3. The Leverage of Weak Ties ............................................................................................. 15

4. Norm-Building in parallel with Law Promulgation .......................................................... 16

IV. VALSSERV-A Lessons and Examples ..................................................................................................... 20

Networks, Shapes and the Urgency of Influencing Links that Enable Them ........................... 20

National Solidarity Program (NSP) .......................................................................................... 21Micro-Hydro Power ................................................................................................................. 24

Solar Energy ............................................................................................................................. 26

Water and Agriculture ............................................................................................................. 27

Conflict Mechanisms and the Establishment of New Norms .................................................. 29

MCommerce and the Role of Women .................................................................................... 34

Financial Mechanisms ............................................................................................................. 36

Tele-Medicine .......................................................................................................................... 38

Situational Awareness ............................................................................................................. 40Building New Base Maps ......................................................................................................... 42

Data Visualization on Enhanced Base Maps: Birth of Situation Maps .................................... 44

Integrating Situation Maps with Low-Bandwidth Tools like SMS ........................................... 45

Sharing Situation Maps over Low Bandwidth Networks ......................................................... 46

Implications ............................................................................................................................. 50

V. Summary, So-What Implications, and Recommended Next Steps ...................................................... 51


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Executive Summary 1 Page

Extraordinary efforts are being made and monies spent to meet Mission Objectives in Afghanistan. They include

both top-down programs and bottom-up projects ranging from the promulgation of new banking,

telecommunications and anti-corruption laws to village-specific education, healthcare, and micro-finance grantsto set up new businesses. What unifies these efforts are more similar than what separates them namely, an

objective of building sustainable capabilities to secure the populations and the countrys economic, social and

political well-being and future.

It is critical to tie together top-down programs with bottom-u p projects. Not doing so creates gaps of

credibility while it increases costs in terms of efforts, lives and dollars. Closing these gaps is crucial to:

1. Strengthen the social trust and the commitment necessary to build sustainable capabilities, and

2. Attack the conditions that give rise to vulnerability and risks by demonstrating that real and sustainableresults can be realized.

Valued Sustainable Services (VALSSERV) consists of bottom-up projects with direct impacts on people in

stressed environments. Specifically, VALSSERV provides reliable communications and stable power as

the foundation to change peoples lives by enabling services in domains such as healthcare,

agriculture, education - they might find valuable and could sustain with the resources theyr e likely to

have available. Stated differently, if people have access to reliable communications and stable power,

they could design for sustainability themselves - based on capabilities and services relevant, selectedand supported by them. VALSSERV s focus on bottom- up impacts creates the space to support top -

down programs.

Specific implications result from emergent VALSSERV and VALSSERV-Afghanistan lessons, with particular

implications on:

1. Making Investments Decisions to meet its core objective of investing in projects and capabilities thatlead to sustainable capabilities

2. Enhancing Situational Awareness to support its core objective of mitigating risks and threats as wellas to providing the foundation for enhanced social trust, and

3. Shaping Narrative to enable its core objective of shaping acceptance and support of means,activities and methods in support of Mission Objectives.


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The urgency for quick wins in Afghanistan is palpable. VALSSERV-A suggests methods, and tangible pilots, to do

so in a way that can decrease the costs while increasing the likelihood of building sustainable capacity.

Context and Executive Overview

Extraordinary efforts are being made and monies spent to meet Mission Objectives in Afghanistan. Theyinclude both top-down programs and bottom-up projects ranging from the promulgation of new

banking, telecommunications and anti-corruption laws to village-specific education, healthcare, and

micro-finance grants to set up new businesses. What unifies these efforts are more similar than what

separates them namely, an objective of building sustainable capabilities to secure the populations and

the country s economic, social and political well-being and future.

It is critical to tie together top-down programs with bottom-up projects. Not doing so will exacerbate

existing gaps of credibility while it increases costs in terms of efforts, dollars and lives expended.Closing these gaps is crucial to:

1. Strengthen the social trust and the commitment necessary to build sustainable capabilities, and

2. Attack the conditions that give rise to vulnerability and risks by demonstrating that real andsustainable results can be realized.

VALSSERVs focus on bottom- up impacts creates the space to support top -down programs. Its

method of doing so rests on three mechanisms:

1. Operational insights and lessons drawn from other complex situations,

2. New methods of understanding the implications of emergent patterns of behaviors, and

3. Focus on providing stable communications and reliable power as the foundation for otheressential services selected by the local population based on needs defined by them andsustainable through resources they are likely to have.

This is the second in the series of Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) papers onVALSSERV. The first defined VALSSERV and its operational relevance to a wide range of complex

operations ranging from building capacity in partner nations, post-war stabilization and

reconstruction, humanitarian assistance / disaster relieve and defense support to civil authorities within

the U.S. It described core VALSSERV elements and a set of planning and operational frameworks and


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tools to assist planners and those involved in specific VALSSERV-relevant responses. 1 This paper

describes a new set of lenses helpful to re-focus attention on opportunities frequently overlooked in

complex situations. Based on lessons from a number of complex operations, early pilot lessons from

Nangarhar, and emergent technology capabilities, it suggested complementary ways of making sense

and taking action with particular implications on: 1) investment decisions, 2) enhancing situational

awareness and 3) shaping narratives critical to influence decision makers. 2 This paper applies these

insights and lessons through a specific focus on Afghanistan.

The urgency for quick wins in Afghanistan is palpable. VALSSERV-A suggests methods, and tangible

pilots, to do so. This paper has two fundamental objectives:

1. Describe a VALSSERV-A pilot in Nangarhar

2. Suggest how lessons learned and capabilities built could become the basis for quick wins andrapid transitions as it is scaled to other provinces as detailed local knowledge becomes availableand resources committed.

Why this Matters

On Friday, October 30, 2009, Robert Zoellick, the head of the World Bank, articulated five lessons

regarding what we can achieve in Afghanistan:

1. Secure Development creating a strong link between security and development

2. Fight Corruption critical to build a sustainable platform for economic growth

3. Leverage Local Projects citing the criticality of locally-relevant, population-selected projects

4. Build National Responsibility and Capacity strengthening the legitimacy of governmentefforts

5. Realize Measurable Improvements in the Lives of the Population demonstrating real impacton peoples lives. 3

1 Dr. Linton Wells II, Major Don Smith and Dr. Ralph Welborn, Distributed Essential Services: Building Sustainable, LocalCapabilities Leveraging Reliable Communications and Stable Power. VALSSERV Report #1. Center for Technology and nationalSecurity Policy (CTNSP) paper. Forthcoming. For a draft copy, contact [email protected] Dr. Linton Wells II, Major Don Smith and Dr. Ralph Welborn. Distributed Essential Services: Bridging the Gaps betweenStrategic Intent and Localized Impact Emergent Lessons and Operational Implications.3 Robert Zoellick, What We Can Achieve in Afghanistan. The Washington Post, October 30, 2009.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/29/AR2009102903917.html.


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VALSSERV-A directly supports numbers 3, 4, and 5. Additionally, it sets up conditions for supporting

number 2, fighting corruption, through its focus on building sustainable capabilities and thereby helping

to tease apart local population from insurgent influence. Reliable communications and stable power

form the foundation for creating sustainable services in domains such as agriculture, healthcare,

ed ucation, and agriculture. Doing so requires being able to connect the dots among various people,

partners and projects involved in providing such services. VALSSERV- As focus on connecting such dots

is precisely how it helps to connect top-down programs with bottom-up projects.

Security and Rule of Law, for obvious reasons, remain at the top of the agenda. Without clearing the

threat space and creating new norms of behavior, many of the extraordinary efforts expended will not

lead to the results needed. Again, early lessons from VALSSERV-A and emergent lessons from VALSSERV

from other complex operations, suggest mechanisms and lessons to help tackle these difficulties as well.

Two specific examples of how follow.

1. Local commitment to projects and mea surable sustainable capacity helps to tease apart local

population from insurgent influence.

2. Laws are difficult to implement nationally, particularly given inconsistent legitimacy of

government officials and lack of credibility of government proclamations at the national level.

Yet, such top-down approaches require ongoing pursuit. In the absence of consistent legal and

regulatory capabilities, norms, codified through sets of informal practices, become even more

important. Sustainable capabilities-bu ilding requires new norms of behavior. Such norms go

viral as more people get engaged in these new normative behaviors through the networks of

individuals, peoples, and businesses in which they are embedded and through which they

interact. A later section will Describe some VALSSERV-A efforts in creating such bottom-up

norms to complement top-down judicial transformation.

This paper has four objectives:

1. Describe VALSSERV-A as a bottom-up approach that can support top-down program objectives

2. Suggest how early Nangarhar lessons, insights from other complex operations and emergent

technology capabilities can be leveraged elsewhere


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3. Suggest how VALSSERV-A pilots, building upon lessons from Nangarhar throughout other

provinces

4. Suggest how VALSSERV-A contri butes new insight into how to make sense and take action in

complex situations with particular implications on:

a. Project investment decisions,

b. Situational awareness, and

c. Narrative shaping.

This paper consists of 4 sections. Section I describes the context for and executive summary of

VALSSERV and the objective of this paper. Section II describes a brief summary of VALSSERV elements,

described in much detail in the first CTNSP paper. Section III provides a brief summary of the

complementary lenses VALSSERV uses to re-focus attention on critical activities to support VALSSERV-

enabled projects. Section IV describes specific pilot projects within Nangarhar, as well as sheds light on

other VALSSERV-A relevant projects from some other provinces, built upon the insights from sections II

and III. Section V summarizes key points and lists operational implications from the perspectives of 1)

making investment decisions, 2) enhancing situational awarenes s, and 3) shaping narrative in support

of Mission Objectives.


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I. Valued Sustainable Services A Brief Recap from VALSSERV Paper #1

Reliable communications and stable power form the foundation to change peoples lives by enabling

services in domains such as healthcare, agriculture, education - they might find valuable and could

sustain with the resources theyre likely to have available.

Stated differently, if people have access to reliable communications and stable power, they could design

for sustainability themselves - based on capabilities and services relevant, selected and supported by

them. Such an emergent approach could both accelerate and increase impact while decreasing risks

and resources involved through creating such Valued Sustainable Services (VALSSERV).

Figure 1 depicts the int erdependencies among the enabling infrastructure and sets of services that sit

on top of those infrastructures.

Figure 1: VALSSERV Elements and their Interdependencies 4

Each of these elements interacts with other elements. Which ones they interact with, and most

importantly, what influences or shapes those interactions, are critical to understand, and influence

(through investments, messaging and other forms of influence). Doing so increases the likelihood of

building sustainable capabilities. Not doing so results in the opposite.

Individual people, projects and activities are embedded in a network of interaction. Such networks

change over time as the interactions among them change. Consequently, focus on the shape of such

4 See VALSSERV Report #1 for detailed ValSServcriptions of each of the elements, Op. cit.


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networks and the interactions among the individual people, projects and activities that make them up

becomes a vital mechanism to understand and, most importantly, influence those interactions.

Figure 2 begins to explain how. It depicts VALSSERV projects in the context / network in which they are

embedded.

Summary points result from Figure 2 follow.

1. All VALSSERV projects are embedded in a network of individuals, activities, and otherbusinesses. How these individuals, activities and businesses impact and are impacted by eachother is important to increase the likelihood of building sustainable capabilities.

2. Pre-conditions and post-conditions of any particular VALSSERV project are critical to have inplace. The degree to which they are strengthened or weakened will determine the likelihood of sustainable impact.

3. Specific projects impact one or more of the following (admittedly overly simplified) supply-chains of VALSSERV efforts:

a. Core Infrastructure of Reliable Communications and Stable Power

b. Production of new service capabilities whether in the domains of agriculture,education, health care, or whatever

c. Distribution, and

d. Consumption of those services.

Figure 2: VALSSERV Project Elements

/

Pre-Conditions


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Pre-conditions need to be in place to ensure local relevance and commitment. Such commitment needs

to pulled from rather than pushed on local decision makers. Pre-conditions are critical to increase

the likelihood of project acceptance. 5 Not having them in place may result in head nods of acceptance

but will not result in any form of sustainable commitment. Chris Corsten, who has been installing

microhydro capabilities throughout Nangarhar, has pointed lessons regarding pre-conditions. He re-

affirms the criticality of drinking three cups of tea and other forms of shared commitment

responsibilities for project impact as mechanisms to strengthen social relationships, trust and

commitment. How well this is done will impact the odds of successful project effort. For example, the

deployment of microhydro capabilities requires local village leaders to decide that such capabilities are

relevant to their situation, that people are available to engage on the project and that partners, if

appropriate, are engaged as well.

Post-Conditions

Post-conditions are critical to ensure ongoing use and sustainability. It is one thing, for example, to

deploy microhydro capabilities. It is quite another to ensure its expansion to support specific services

and to scale its impact beyond its installation. Another lesson from Corsten highlights this point. As

Corsten points out access to financial capital as a critical post-condition sustainability requirement for

two reasons. First, having access to capital is critical to be able to pay for additional services that take

advantage of the electrical power provided; Second, and one often overlooked, paying for power

provided, even a nominal amount, is vital as an expression of value realized from the power obtained.

Free provision may lead to perceptions of no value. 6

As will be discussed in the section on Finance in Section IV, the Grameen Bank s micro -credit process

that seed s capabilities rests on the recognition of the criticality of social network i nfluence among

various members, and the invisible, but critical, links t hat tie them together. The Grameen Banks

process targets these strengths thereby strengthening them and the new norms they create. For their

process, loans are provided to groups of individuals, each of whom become mutual guarantors of the

debt to each other. In this way, risk is distributed across the group rather than rests on any oneindividual. This small -world network that gets created reflects the criticality of making visible the

5 Getting such agreement may involve establishing shared trust or relationships based on different mores of interaction e.g.,three cups of tea, or other forms of shared relationship commitments. It certainly involves ensuring that local commitmentexists both in terms of people engaged and resources available.6 This is discussed in more detail later in the section on MicroHydro.


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invisible ties that link people together. The brilliance of this model is its focus on the network of

people rather than that of any one particular person. Doing so spreads risk, from a financial fiduciary

perspective while it establishes new norms from a social networking one. This is but one of many

VALSSERV-based example of the criticality of:

1. Understanding the network / context in which any individual (person, business, project) is

embedded

2. Making visible what is invisible here the links that connect these individuals (whethe r

people, business, or projects) - critical to strengthen network ties and thereby influence the

shape and impact of the overall network. 7

3. Ensuring post-conditions are considered for any and all projects to increase the likelihood of

project impact.

Mechanisms to support conflict resolution are another critical post-condition requirement. Existing

systems of judicial code exist. New capabilities, including those that reach beyond the local village

where they might be installed e.g., for eCommerce or the access to larger markets for village-produced

goods may go beyond the traditional, though formal, jurisdiction of the local mullah, shura or other

form of judicial decision making. Putting in place mechanisms that engage or align informal with formal,

traditional with new, judicial forms is crucial to increase the buy -in and ongoing use of new

capabilities. The later section on Alternative Dispute Resolution via mobile devices provides much more

detail on a proposed pilot focusing on realizing the alignment between formal and informal dispute

mechanisms as another example of the ripple effects of new norms of behavior and post -conditions.

Supply-Chain Stages

Every project whether of microhydro, mobile phone deployment, fruit-tree planting, or mineral

extraction requires building capacity (through its resources), producing outputs, distributing them to

markets (whether across a village or to the country next door), and consuming that output. Any broken

link in this chain means that the project, or business, will face significant hurdles to expand and willstruggle to succeed. This is well understood in economies with strong infrastructures, methods and

capabilities to link supply chain elements. VALSSERV-A builds upon that understanding to re-focus

attention on both up-stream and down-stream supply chain elements as well as the links between them.

7 Discussion with Isabel Maxwell, Foundation Advisory to Grameen Bank, September, 2009.


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Oliver Dziggel, director of large programs in Afghanistan for Deloitte, crisply summarizes what he calls

the dreadful gaps connecting efforts and goods to market. 8

Quick Take-Aways

Other VALSSERV-A nodes of pre- and post-conditions as well as further break-downs of the supply chain

exist and are critical. The points to be made here are simpler.

1. Projects exist within a network of other efforts, all of which hav e their own pre-conditions and

post-conditions. Projects need consideration of pre-conditions, up- and down-stream impacts,

and post-conditional elements to increase the likelihood of their success.

2.

Each of these nodes, and projects to support them, has ties that connect them. Understandinga) that these ties exist, b) what flows across them and c) what shape they form is critical to

increase the likelihood that any particular VALSSERV effort will be effective.

3. Operationally what this means is straight-forward: every VALSSERV-related project needs to

consider each of the boxes of Figure B. Ideally, this entails checking the boxes of each of the

shapes within Figure B. 9

This does not mean that every box needs to be filled or invested in. It does, however, mean

that consideration needs to be given to how to strengthen the ties among them. The

greater the ties, the greater the spread of both direct and indirect impact. The greater the

spread, the greater the likelihood of accelerating the impact and realizing the objectives to

which the energy and resources have been committed.

Stated in reverse, cautionary, terms: not understanding, supporting, investing, or in some manner,

checking the boxes of each of these Network VALSSERV elements in which they are embedded will

significantly increase the likelihood of project failure as measured by lack of sustainable capability.

8 Discussion, National Defense University, October 27, 2009.9 Physicians in many operating rooms prior to procedures go through a checklist process. The results from following thissimple task has proven to be strikingly effective reducing post-operating infections by 32% and mortality rates by 11%. Thereason for this is simple: operations are embedded in a network of different skill-sets and perspectives with contingent effectson each other all mobilized towards a common goal analogy to the network embeddedness of complex situations.


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II. The Foundation of VALSSERV-A Insights and Its Implications A RecapPeople are embedded in a network of interactions . Every action involves a person at a particular time

in a particular place (space). This quad of Action, People, Time and Space impacts other quads that

ripple throughout the networks in which they occur. Viewing individuals (people, businesses or

projects) as being embedded within networks has significant implications.

VALSSERV-A is based on this emergent network focus derived from lessons from Afghanistan and

other complex operations. This focus rests on five foundational lessons:

1. Network Focus

People are embedded in networks of interactions. These networks shift in response to links that form it.

Consequently, focusing on networks, the links that influence their shape and the placement of people

within those networks provides into:

1. Direct and influences on individual (people, business and project) behavior, and

2. Actions to impact the individuals (people, businesses and projects) that comprise that network.

An important distinction exists between groups and networks. A group can be characterized by an

attribute e.g., a member of the Pashtun, or any other tribe or one of the Haqqanni insurgent groups

or as a specific collection of individuals to whom we can literally point e.g., those people over there

involved in constructing microhydro capabilities. A social network is very different. Like a group, it is a

collection of people. But is more than a group, consisting of a specific set of connections, or links,

among people in the group. These links, and most importantly, the pattern of those links, are arguably

more important than the individual people themselves. As connections among people, they allow

groups of to do things that a disconnected collection of individuals cannot. Consequently,

understanding the links is crucial to understanding how networks function. 10

People move across networks. An individual from the Pashtun tribe who engages in commerce withsomeone from the Tajik tribe may have aligned interests that cut across additional networks in which

10 The first VALSSERVpaper discussed the critical ties among infrastructure (reliabl e communications and stable distributed,renewable power), services and domains (such as agriculture, health care, education). It discussed the importance of mappingthose ties to particular local conditions to increase the likelihood of sustainable imp act. This paper explains what is it aboutsuch ties that increase the odds of effective impact.


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they are engaged. A network, then, is an organized set of people that consist of people and the

connections between them. Understanding how a network evolves and interacts with other networks

provides significantly different insight into that of focusing on either individuals or groups.

Counter- intuitive but very pragmatic implications fall from this network focus.

1. Risks to specific individuals and areas can be mitigated or exacerbated by virtue of their network

position with significant implications of where, when, and how to intervene .

2. Similarly, influencing the behavior of any particular behavior is more likely to result from

influencing those around the person, than directly focusing on the person. Perturbating the

network influences the individual embedded w ithin that network more or less depending on

the nature of the ties that connect that person within that network.

Specific examples of these implications which will be explored later, given lessons from other complex

operations and emerging Afghan pilots . For now, its enough to emphasis that complementing

traditional focuses on individual (people, businesses and projects) to that of the Network and links in

which they are embedded.

Individuals are embedded within networks. Yet, saying that it is important to understand how networks

function is not sufficient. People cannot be connected with everyone. They face constraints of time,

space (geography), socioeconomic status, role, access to technology, etc all of which impact the kinds

of relationship s, and connections, they do, can and might have. These constraints shape the nature of

the ties and consequently, the connections of people with each other, and consequently how networks

function. This is why the focus on ties is so critical. It is also why linking the focus of individuals and

groups to that of social networks becomes so critical.

A question is: how to do this the focus on the second lens.

2. Network Shapes Matter

The shape of networks matter as does the specific location an individual, project, or business finds itself

in within that network. How people are connected and the shapes of their network frame the

constraints, and the opportunities, to do different things than individuals can themselves. In other

words, the very nature of a network allows ripple effects across networks far from the influence or


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impact of any particular individual or node within that network. This is why and how network shapes

matter. Different network shapes:

1. Frame constraints and opportunities

2. Give rise to different prescriptions of what to do. 11

In short, shapes matter. It is less important where, who and what individuals (or businesses) do than

into how they are tied into those networks. This is why focusing on what ties exist, and how to

influence ties, becomes a critical focus to complement existing efforts going on. Networks with

particular features and shapes are more prone to cascades. Understanding the shape of the network

and what ties them together is crucial to understanding how to inject, monitor and influence how

everyone within that, and related networks , behave.

A question is: how to do this the focus of the third lens.

3. The Leverage of Weak Ties

Individuals come in contact with many people. If one person affects another, and they in turn affect yet

another and they another, the actions taken by the first person can potentially affect people far

removed from the initial person who initiated an action. Ripple effects occur throughout networks.

This is why a focus solely on tribal groups, powerfully placed individuals and/or influential people are farfrom sufficient to have the type of effect needed in complex operations. This is why understanding:

1. Network shapes

2. The location of individuals within networks and

3. The ties that bind individuals (people and businesses) and finally

4. What flows across those ties

become critical.

11 For example, r isks and threats are more effect ively understood, and mitigated, through understanding the architecture /shape of the structural position in which a person and/or business is located than their personal socioeconomic, political, oreconomic position. This is why understanding what flows through the links is so critical. Different links flow throughdifferent things e.g., power, res pect, weapons, money (both tangible or intangible links exist). Network shapes differdepending upon these links yet another reason why it is so critical to take as the unit of focus network shapes and the linksthat create them. The escalating number of narco-trafficking groups who are coming together across ideological, geographicaland even political lines are expanding cross- over networks shaped by different types of links some muscle, some financial,some narrative cover.


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Specific implications follow.

1. Focus on those 3 Degrees Removed . Contacts of contacts of contacts affect what any particular

person (or business) does. Consequently, it becomes critical to understand the 3 degrees

removed from any particular person / business of interest. Much work in network analysis hasfocused on how people are connected to others resulting in the common characterization that

nearly anyone in the world can connect with anyone else in the world through 6 hops, or are 6

degrees removed from anyone else (also known as the Kevin Bacon rule). More refined

research in a variety of areas healthcare, economic development work in challenged

environments, policy assessments has refined this. Arguably, anyone *can* reach anyone

else globally within 6 degrees removed. However, influence on any one person stems from

their network of 3 hops within a network. For a crude example, a mullah of significant may be

influenced by an impoverished farmer 6 degrees removed from and unknown by the mullah.

How? A mullah is connected to his wife who is connected to a wife of a man who sells nuts who

is connected to his wife who is connected with the provider of the nuts. Projects impacting the

farmer and his wife get communicated through the connective tissue ending up with the

mullahs wife who speaks to her husband about the benefit (or constraints) resulting from a new

project.

2. Focus as much on Weak Ties as on Key Decision Maker s. Focus on key people powerful

and/or influential is far from sufficient. The 3 Degree Rule explains how Weak Ties have

disproportionate impact in influencing the shape of networks, and consequently, the powerful

because they greatly expand the total number of potential connections. Influence created and

actions taken result from those 3 degrees removed from many of those on whom much efforts

and investments are expended.

A question is: how to influence behavioral change within the networks the focus on the fourth lens.

4. Norm-Building in parallel with Law Promulgation

It is one thing to implement new processes or install new capabilities. It is another to ensure that

capacity is sustained. Deployin g spot capabilities runs the risk of falling into disuse over time.


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Inattention to building tails of capabilities in the long term increases costs in terms of dollars,

credibility, effort and time.

Re-focusing attention on the network shapes influen ced from projects suggests benefits of this focus.

1. Norms of Behavior are Created . What spreads from people to people are norms shared

expectations of what is appropriate. As more people are connected, particular norms are

reinforced. Given the ripple effects throughout a network, directly and indirectly connected

people may end up establishing and supporting norms (or ideas about something) without

realizing that they are being influenced by one another. The implication is here is striking. A

concordance of norms even if there is not a concordance of behaviors or

beliefs. 12

2. Social Networks are Shared, and Influential, Resources . Everyone in a network is connected to

others next to them, whether voluntarily or not. In the process, an endlessly complex social

network is created that become a resource that no one person controls but that all benefit

from. Whether that benefit is benign or malignant given Mission Objectives depends upon how

the links that influence the network shape are influenced.

So What?

VALSSERVs specific lessons boil down to the connectivity imperative of quickly understa nding, and

taking advantage of what-connects-with-what-when-where-how-and-how-much . These new

considerations result in very specific, operational steps:

1. Seed projects from each box from Figure 2 using the VALSSERV Pre-condition, Supply-

Chain, Post-Condition Checklist before *any* discussions and/or investments are made. They

will fill out. Emergent behavior results from connections among many people. Simply

providing capabilities, in say microhydro capabilities, is far from sufficient. Conducting parallelefforts to support service capabilities (e.g., agriculture or healthcare) while investing in some of

the pre-conditions (e..g, micro-finance and alternative dispute resolution) is critical; each of

these are likely to be tied either directly or indirectly to each other through contacts of

12 Connected, Op. cit ., p132.


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contacts of contacts. Influences flow and norms of behavior are created through such ties.

Consequently, as much attention on what ties people and projects together as on the people

and projects themselves is critical.

2.

Assess villages or districts or domains of focus from a network shape perspective . Focusingon sustainable capacity requires understanding the networks shape in which efforts are being

expended. It also requires as much attention on the pre-conditions as on the post-conditions of

any investment. Different shapes entail different points of insertion. Understanding how suc h

insertion will influence the network is much more likely to lead to desired intent.

3. Focus on increasing connections on the ties among the networks rather than the nodes.

This requires focusing on the weak ties rather than the key decision makers. Drinking 3 cups

of tea is critical. But while drinking the tea, recognize that the person with whom one is drinkingthe tea will influence and be influenced by that persons contacts contact as much as by direct

contact. Norms will be established through the process of engaging in new situations, and

through the process of cross -over of those engaged in multiple networks. This is why focus on

the ties that bind as on the bindings themselves is critical.

4. Focus on weak ties. Buy-in from local leaders is important, of course. But recognition that

such buy-in will result as much from those whom they may not engage in directly as much as

direct interaction is critical. A corollary is that focus on *the major influencers* may be less

important than understanding the shape of the network in which those people are embedded

and focusing on influencing the shape of the network, which itself, will influence key influencers.

5. Create relevant narratives. This requires understanding the relevant messages, articulated and

relevant, specific to different people in different parts of the network.

6. Focus on Norm Building to complement focus on law capacity building.

7. Start anywhere . As Chris Corsten mentions, its much easier [to start] than one typically

thinks so just start. But it is also critical to recognize that wherever one starts, ripple effects

throughout the network will occur, which is why a network perspective is critical to take.

8. Recognize the operational implications of this approach on Investments, Situational

Awareness and Narrative Shaping those depicted in Figure 3.


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Figure 3: Operational Implications

Quick Take-Away

Urgency exists in understanding what -impacts-what-where-when-how-and-how- much. But rather

than being paralyzed by the everything is connected initial reaction, pragmatic opportunities to heed

Corstens admonition to just start precisely because of the rippling effect of taking the VALSSERV-A

perspective.

The VALSSERV series is intended to articulate the rationale, the foundation and pragmatic implications

of a network -based bottom -up approach. It is 100% uninteresting if the emergent lessons that now

exist remain in the realm of making sense differently. It is critical to take action effectively. The

following section describes and/or recommends specific pilots occurring in Nangarhar that could

perhaps be scaled to accelerate impact while reducing risks of doing so. 13

13 The following section Describe s some lessons of the urgency of focusing on the links both hard and soft from a numberof projects drawn from some of the boxes in Figure 2. What all of these have in common is the criticality of making explicit thelinks among the various nodes that comprise a shape of activities from pre-condition, to supply-chain elements, to post-conditions


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III. VALSSERV-A Lessons and Examples

Networks, Shapes and the Urgency of Influencing Links that Enable Them

Ashraf Ghani, Director of The Institute of State Effectiveness, and a former Afghan Ministry of Finance

under Karzai, has written a 10 -Year Framework for Afghanistan.14

He argues that a coherent approachto enable Afghan stability and reconstruction rests on five foundational pillars:

1. Rule of Law critical to ensure that the Afghan state can control its territory through the use of

effective security and police services that use force within a clear space defined by strict rules.

They also include the establishment of legitimate public finance, to ensure that resources, both

internal and external, are channeled effectively and spent accountably at every level of

government. This foundation creates a baseline for accountability and government legitimacy.

2. Market-Building critical to create sustainable jobs, particularly among the unemployed youth

who provide the basis for the insurgency and narcotics industry. Key to effective market

building is development and expansion of Afghanistans core assets: 1) minerals, including

copper and iron as well as precious and semi-precious stones; 2) water sources gives its

topography and potential to supply not only its provinces more effectively (given that today only

10% of the water supply is currently used for irrigation and power generation); and 3)

agriculture with a particular emphasis on migrating the 35% of agricultural production on drug

production to other, higher profitable crops for farmers, as opposed to traffickers. Market-building also rests on ability to take advantage of its 35 million population through providing

relevant vocational and higher-skill training as well as providing both information and physical

access to market information and networks.

3. Infrastructure - critical to establ ish linkages across its varied provinces, thereby harnessing

space towards a common goal of creating what he calls social and institutional capital similar

to lessons learned from other areas such as the Ring Roads throughout India connecting four

major and geographically dispersed cities in the North, West, East and South. Critical to this

focus is 1) mobilizing many people on both large-scale and small-scale construction and power

projects.

14 Ashraf Ghani, A Ten-Year Framework for Afghanistan: Execution the Obama Plan and Beyond. The Atlantic Council, April2009.


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4. Public Borrowing and Financial Capital critical to ensure that external resources can be

channeled effectively to support budgets as key policy instruments. Critical to this focus is

attention on building human capital and effective mechanisms to manage conflict and other

fiduciary and legal capabilities.

5. Stability critical to provide the space in which the other elements can be based, as well as to

harness the energies and investments of both those who have Afghanistan as well as those with

long term interests in helping it become a sustainable, and secure, environment or investment

and partnership.

The criticality of these foundations for sustainability is clear. Reasonable people can argue over whether

other foundations need to be laid as well. But the urgent questi on is not what they are, but r ather

how to realize them.

Thats where VALSSERV-A comes in. Specific, scalable lessons emerge from the VALSSERV-A lens, in

terms of how to connect top-down programs with bottom-up projects. Some of these lessons, and

pilots, are described below. The intent here is to be illustrative rather than exhaustive in terms of how

to make sense and take action differently around these, and other, possible efforts.

National Solidarity Program (NSP)The NSP was introduced in 2001. It was designed to introduce mechanisms for coordinating disparate

assets on the ground while strengthening social trust and obligations between population and

government institutions. Government legitimacy, for years, has faced a double challenge of

establishing state institutions and bringing relevant actors both foreign and domestic behind a

common development strategy. NSP understood this. It understood, as well, the critical connectivity of

constituents and competing agendas. It was designed, accordingly, to unite efforts and nurture fledgling

state institutions through the creation of multiple micro -networks of different people, businesses and

organizations.

NSP is a government-led program that provides block grants to villages across Afghanistan, empowering

communities to identify reconstruction and development priorities and implement projects in response.

One key advantage of the NSP program is its simplicity. Grant eligibility rests on three criteria, each of


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which explicitly focuses on strengthening links among different people. This link focus results in the

creation of 1) new micro -networks and/or 2) new norms of behavior among these people. Such links

are strengthened through a consistent process. First, the women and men of the village must elect a

village Community Development Council. Second, a quorum of the village must meet to reach

consensus on priority projects. Third, accounts must be posted in a public place.

The simplicity of this process cut through a core fundamental political challenge the lack of decision

rights regarding who had authority to do what with multiple agencies, agendas and budgets

emphasizing different priorities, parallel bureaucracies funded by different sources, civil servants not

being able to be funded, and people with professional skills (e..g, doctors and teachers) leaving their

posts to work as drivers and translators for international staff. The 3-step link-strengthening-process

required specific operational steps:

1. Unify Rules . Rules are designed to allocate decision rights, roles and career paths. NORM-

creation. Such norms can assist in smoothing jagged relationships, uncoordinated or conflicting

actors, methods and agendas.

2. Mobilize and Harness Assets . Establishment of norms, if not rules, help both to establish and

manage expectations. NSPs grassroots focus helps to get more people engaged rather than

nurturing a small leadership elite. National Programs are designed to empower citizens

making them stakeholders in reconstruction and building the circle of trust between citizen and

state. 15

3. Recognize the Constraints and sequence appropriately . As constraints shift, programs are

recalibrated. As power, security, money, and other pre -conditions and post-conditions are

supported, or are not supported, priorities shift. NSPs focus on influencing the network and

establishing specific norms of behavior that influence it, recognize this. The process put in place

can adapt as the shapes of the network, and pressures on specific individuals within it (people,

businesses, projects) change.

The NSP has reached more than 20,000 villages across every province with clear benefits having been

realized so far.

15 Institute for State Effectiveness. Why National Programs are the Key to Success in Afghanistan. 2008.


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1. Established micro-networks - as means to scale reach, involvement, and commitment

throughout villages

2. Strengthened or created new norms through creating a system for allocating grants according

to defined procedures, creating predictability and allocating rules and responsibilities amongactors

3. Harnessed assets from the bottom up reflecting lessons learned that local communities are

far more capable of prioritizing their own needs than projects imposed from outside.

4. Realized quick wins through providing direct block grant transfers to fun sub-projects as well

as linking NGOs, donors and other efforts to specific projects selected by villages.

5. Saved costs

through bypassing contracting chains by allocating decision-making and fundingdirectly to the village level. Localized visceral knowledge will always trump generalized

conceptual knowledge in terms of what is relevant, where, when and with whom. The result?

Cheaper costs because of local know-how and internalized security costs. 16

6. Built new capabilities .

NSP focuses careful attention to VALSSERV pre-conditions for projects. Such attention is what creates

the benefits so far realized. 17

Chris Corstens model of deploying micro -hydro capabilities provides another example of a similar,

though, different model. He follows a similar governance model through shuras and village councils. His

sensitivity to network shapes and local conditions, provides a complementary lesson with a

particular focus on the criticality of post-conditions .

16 NSP projects are on average 30% cheaper than those built by foreign non -governmental organizations. Mohammed EhsanZia, Minister for Rural Rehabilitation and Development. Cited in Institute for State Effectiveness. National Solidarity Program:A Hidden Success . 2008. Outside security costs, at least from ex -patriots could cost up to 1,000 x more expensive per day,than locally-provided security. Discussion with Oliver Dziggel, October, 27, 2009.17 The NSP is implemented through the MRRD. A CDC can submit proposals for village infrastructure projects drawing on NSPfunds. They are entitled to receive total funding of US $200 per household with the maximum village size totaling 300. Since2003, NSP has supported more than 35,000 sub-projects in over 20,000 communities throughout all 34 provinces. Between2003 and 2006, the project absorbed $800 million of which block grants provided to the villages represented approximately50% of the total budget.


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Micro-Hydro Power

Reliable communications and stable power form the foundation of VALSSERV t o change peoples lives by

enabling services in domains such as healthcare, agriculture, education. It does by selecting projects

that local populations select based on what they find valuable and could sustain with the resources

theyre likely to have available. Access to electricity is thus a critical starting point. According to an

ACEP paper, only 10 -12 percent of the Afghan population has access to electricity, one of the lowest in

the world. 340,000 customers are connected to the public power grid, of which 182,000 are in the Kabul

area. The other provinces have far less access to electricity, with rural areas being virtually unserved 18

Chris Corsten has been installing microhydro power (MHP) systems in Nangahar Province for the past

several ye ars under the auspices of State Departments counternarcotics (CN) program run through

International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL). He recently has completed a survey of over

450 potential MHP sites in Nangarhar, with the following range of potential outputs:

238 sites have a potential output between 2 Kw-9 Kw

133 sites have a potential output between 10 Kw-19 Kw

48 sites have the potential output between 20 Kw-29 Kw



7 sites have the potential output over 100 Kw.

Corstens generalized lessons include careful attention to both pre-conditions and some of the post-

conditions for his projects. Three specific, and counter-intuitive (from a traditional perspective) lessons

follow.

1. There is no Free Lunch (a post-condition consideration). Deploying microhydro capability and

offering it free for use results in a thank you very much which may lead to a perceived lack

of value. If villagers and up-stream businesses have to pay even a nominal amount, more valueis attached to the service. Consequently, some mechanism of escrow-based payment is an

important post- condition element learned through Corstens successful implementations.

18 Linton Wells II, Distributed Infrastructure in Afghan Reconstruction and Stabilization. February 2009, p. 3.


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2. Costs are Cheaper when Used Locally (a pre-condition consideration). Getting the local buy-in

the 3 cups of tea is obvious. Less obvious, to him, initially, was the implication of using the

local resources both people and their capabilities. Two examples illustrate this point. These

are the lessons of:

a. Localized knowledge trumps functional expertise. (lin need sentences the up -stream

quality issues brick / mortar quality problems

b. Better technologies lies in the hands of the local experts a.k.a., local capabilities may

end up selecting what, on first look, appears like inferior technology, but in the longer

run, leads to more sustainable capabilities. Corsten initially used a Japanese generator.

While more expensive with more functionality as well as needing significantly less

maintenance over time, a cheaper Chinese generator is now the generator of choicebecause of its better fit given maintenance skills and cost considerations.

3. Seed it and Get out of the Way (a supply-chain consideration). Ensure pre-conditions and post-

conditions are in place, seed investments in time, effort and dollars in supply elements, then get

out of the way. Using network -speak, the nodes will find a way. As Chris explained, We

just finished nine microhydros last week (August 2009) and are preparing to start 24 in the next

six weeks. The power we are giving (roughly 50W-90W/family) is enough for lighting and fans

and small electronics, but when you build power, people get creative with it. 19 His strong

lesson is: build the energy foundation through establishing social trust and relationships. The

very process of building such relationships and an energy foundation is as important as

anything else built on top of that foundation. The process itself i s what gets the local

population committed to the foundation and the provisioning of services on top of it as they

need, and as they see fit.

4. Sustainable Capacity requires Effective Metrics. Sustainable capacity results from

strengthening the links am ong nodes (whether individuals, businesses or projects). It is

straight-forward to measure the results of a project or observe the direct actions of any node.

For example, it is straight- forward to check off and count as successful the deployment of 24

microhydro generators in 20 villages, or the installation of new latrines in cholera-sensitive

19 Conversation with Chris Corsten, August 29, 2009.


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environments. It is much more complicated, though arguably as, if not more, important, to

build the capacity tail for both of these to ensure their continued use and expansion. One

means to do that is to focus on the links between these particular deliverables and the

People, Locations, Time, and Activities that tie them with others within the network in which

they are embedded.

Corstens team is in proce ss of installing another 24 microhydro projects throughout Nangarhar.

Additional pilots have been proposed that extend the electricity capabilities he has created through

focusing on: 1) up-stream supply-chain projects e..g, small business capabilities that can emerge as a

result of stable power provided, and 2) post-conditions projects to ensure that both financial capital and

alternative dispute mechanisms are in place to scale the reach (network shape) of the capabilities

developed.

Other pilots relying on Solar Energy emphasize s the urgency on explicit focus on strengthening narrative

links among individual (people, businesses and projects) pre-condition and post-condition elements.

Solar Energy

Given the 300 plus days, on average, of significant sunlight in Afghanistan, solar energy projects,

particular food processors for drying agricultural products quickly, show promise, as projects in Wardak,

PRT Logar, PRT Parwan and proposed projects in Nangarhar attest.20

The ability of parabolic cookers togenerate high temperatures very quickly even at high altitutdes and in very cold weather (as long as

there is sunshine) all point to this as the solar cooker technology that will most readily be adopted.

Lessons learned include introducing them first to village tea shops where they could be used to boil

water in a very public place. Male and female villagers would see them in use and would notice how

much less wood is being burned by the owners of the chai hanas . Parabolic solar cookers can also be

used for ironing clothes. The irons used in areas where there is no electricity are just that, pieces of iron

with a flat bottom, a handle and a place to put hot coals. In India, laundry workers are heating their

irons on parabolic cookers and saving a bundle on charcoal. The emphasis on tea shops points to the

sensitivity and reality of the 3 degrees of influence rule. Other reports on the success that Chinese

20 Pat McArdle report on Solar Food Processing in Afghanistan 09-3.doc.
http://afghantides.pbworks.com/f/Pat+McArdle+report+on+Solar+Food+Processing+in+Afghanistan+09-3.dochttp://afghantides.pbworks.com/f/Pat+McArdle+report+on+Solar+Food+Processing+in+Afghanistan+09-3.doc


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have had with solar cooking further emphasizes the potential impact, depending on careful phasing of

the solar technology, might have. 21

The lesson of understanding pre- and post-conditions is emphasized by the experience of other efforts

to introduce solar cookers in Kabul by a particular group. As the project director described his teams

expe rience, I just wanted to flag to the group that it is not as simple as putting a few university

Designed units out there My team of engineers here in Kabul tried unsuccessfully to introduce solar

cookers under a German initiative a few years ago and esse ntially got nowhere If an approach to solar

cookers can be worked out such that the needs of the consumer (technical, cultural and social) are

accommodated, and the reasons for the other past failures are thoroughly understood, then sure,

maybe this one w ill work out better.

The net of the above suggests that solar-based approaches can offer significant capabilities, but they

should include significant social and cultural elements as well as technical ones. The Barefoot Solar

Engineers discuss seeding cells of capabilities that coalesce into strengthened capabilities. These include

1) training and support around basic business skills, 2) identifying specific business opportunities , and

encouraging the development of online businesses and norms for online businesses, including the

development and refinement of execution support to get started, and 3) launch support, including

micro- investments or other forms of encouragement to seed multiple businesses, while expanding the

community of entrepreneurs. 22

Lessons from specific water and agricultural pilots emphasize the importance of the parallel seeding of

investments across the supply -chain elements.

Water and Agriculture

Afghanistan has significant hydroelectric potential given its topography as well as its location.

Consequently, the ripple -effect from more effective water usage from small, medium and large

hydroprojects could provide rural Afghans significant opportunities for additional services to enhance

their living conditions such as cold storage and processing facilities. Such capabilities would, in turn,

21 Chinese Solar Cooking09 Tingcun,pdf.22 Barefoot Solar Engineers, discussed in afghantiValSServ.pbworks.com wiki.


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increase the lifespan of products and provide the foundation for a broader market impact role for

agricultural products. Over 75 percent of Afghans live in rural areas. Prior to the explosion of opium

production, licit agricultural goods made up nearly half of Afghan GDP. High -value horticulture

provided 48 percent of Afghanistans pre -1979 export revenue and 60 percent of the worlds dried

fruit. 23

Several core challenges exist in enhancing licit-based agricultural productivity. Security is, of course, a

core element. Opium production is, of course, another key one. As Ghani has argued, rural incomes per

capital have to increase from $1 / day to at least $4 / day for opium production to become unprofitable

and for farmers to have economic incentives to shift their focus. 24 An additional is that opium can thrive

without significant water. Consequently, tackling the drug challenge requires as much focus on water

management as on the groups involved in its overall supply chain. Other reports Describe how

network shapes of g rowing drug trafficking groups are shifting as new allegiances are formed not only

throughout the country but also across region and globally.

The intent here is merely to highlight the connectivity among water and so many other nodes in the

network of water production. Yet, much as it is easy to identify critical nodes within embedded

networks around which other networks orbit, it is clear that the shape of water networks requires

significant attention given its rippling effects throughout other activities. VALSSERV perspectives, and

projects, like Chris Corstens suggests ways to tease apart these thic k connections among some of

these incredibly difficult challenges.

The restoration of the Kajaki Dam in Helmand Province is a case in point. It is one of USAIDs largest

projects in Afghanistan. The dam has the potential to store 1.7 billion cubic feet of water for irrigation

and to supply power to several million people. Given the ripple effects of such immense capabilities, it

is no surprise that the area remains the target of Taliban attacks placing on hold additional supply-

chain elements for producing and distributing the water and its resulting power. This is precisely further

reason why the establishment of additional mechanisms to harness water becomes critical. Yet,

agriculture production requires much more than enhanced access to water. It involves a broad range of

23 Edward Borcherdt, Austin Carson, Frank Kennefick, James Moseley, William Taylor, Harlan Ullman, and Larry Wentz, Winningthe Invisible War: An Agricultural Pilot Plan for Afghanistan . Center for Technology and National Security Policy Paper, March,2008, p. 5.24 Ghani, Op. cit.


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different kinds of nodes that, once connected, form the foundatio n for revised and high-value crop

production. These nodes include:

1. Training / instruction on all phases of farming including planting, fertilizing, pruning, irrigation,

harvesting and processing

2. Informati on and analysis for best -fit and expanded production. Such work includes satellite

surveys, soil analyses, and improved irrigation systems to help determine what is relevant

depending on locale and capabilities

3. High-yield plantings of relevant agricultural products such as nut- and fruit-tree stock

4. Information on market conditions and enhanced situational awareness regarding soil

conditions weather forecasts, market prices and distribution mechanisms once the agriculturalproducts are harvested.

The Missouri National Guard has been providing direct agricultural advice and project support to a

number of areas within Nangarhar. One of their key lessons has been the focus less on water or any

one part of the agricultural supply chain, than the critica lity of seeding multiple aspects of it at the

same time.

No investments will realize a return nor any project sustainability without post-conditions in place. Many

of these post-conditions impact the links between individual (people, businesses, projects). Some of

these critical post-conditions and pilots to embed them into a network of projects follows.

Conflict Mechanisms and the Establishment of New Norms

A weak rule of law is one of the major factors in corruption and wariness regarding proje ct efficacy.

This ranges from delays in bringing disputes to trial, government and police corruption, and the lack of

durable and consistent mechanisms to reduce conflict among property disputes. Ashraf Ghani

illustrates this problem: The Supreme Court has been known to pass as many as six judgments on the

same piece of property in Kabul, reversing itself three times in favor of one party or the other. 25 The

lack of consistency precludes reliable remediation options except for the most powerful. The flip side is

that creating such consistency and clarity whether of rights (an extremely difficult issue) or alternative

25 Ghani, Op. cit., p23.


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dispute mechanisms (a demonstrable and much faster option) can accelerate the creation of jobs as it

reduces corruption. At a minimum, it enhances commonly shared expectations regarding how disputes

might be handled. Tackling the challenge of consistent, clear and capable judicial conduct has to

straddle several gaps between:

1. Informal vs formal mechanisms of conflict resolution

2. Urban vs. rural

3. Tribal vs. national, and

4. Religious vs. secular. 26

A question is: how to do so.

Joseph Schmitz, former Inspector General of the Department of Defense, suggests the Four C model to

establish such consistency:

1. Clear definition of success

2. Clear plan of action with milestones for achieving success

3. Clear accountability for each milestone along the plan of action, and

4. Complete support by leadership, starting at the top. 27

USAID has initiated phase II of a project to promulgate new judicial legislation across the major

Ministries intended to lay the foundation for rules of law, i ncluding the roll-out of an Afghanistan

Court Administration System (ACAS) nation-wide as well as increase the administrative capacity of the

Supreme Courts Office of General Administration. Phase I involved crafting new legislation and getting

them on the books. Phase II extends it by Designing processes to guide behavior within each of the

Ministries. 28 In parallel, President Karzai has agreed to set up 34 anti-corruption cells in each of the

provinces. A key objective of these cell is to promulgate, monitor and enforce mechanisms of

26 ICTJ's report on HR violations in Afghanistan suggests a rich, textured understanding of and approach to justice by its citizens(http://www.ictj.org/static/Asia/Afghanistan/aihrc.callforjustice.eng.pdf) .27 Cooperating with DoD on Economic Development Activities in Afghanistan. Opening Remarks of Joseph Schmitz,Afghanistan Conference, Washington DC, October 20, 2009.28 Discussion with Oliver Dziggel, National Defense University, October 27, 2009.
http://www.ictj.org/static/Asia/Afghanistan/aihrc.callforjustice.eng.pdfhttp://www.ictj.org/static/Asia/Afghanistan/aihrc.callforjustice.eng.pdf


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transparency to decrease the amount of corruption as laid out in the set of laws on the books as of fall,

2009.

The importance of such top-down activities is clear. The Four Cs and the promulgation of new judicial

rules of conduct are clearly important in terms of what needs to be done. Yet, it is one thing to knowthe whats that have to be done. It is quite another to wrestle with the hows of getting there.

And here is insight from VALSSERV lessons become relevant.

1. Focus on Shaping New Norms, building on reality-on-the-ground. Focus on shaping new norms

complements law promulgation. The 4Cs start from the top. The blunt reality is that the trickle

down from top-down approaches, particularly in Afghanistan, is insufficient, or perhaps too slow

to have the type of demonstration effects essential to get past the more of the same or

what does it mean to me in the village beyo nd the major urban areas. Statues on the book are

important. But unless they are demonstrably effective with ripple-effects down to those at all

levels, they will remain relevant only to a few. Thats why squeeze plays from top -down and

bottom-up are critical as mechanisms to bridge the gap that often exists between them.

Shaping norms is a critical means to do this.

The blunt reality is that the government doesnt have the legitimacy to say do this or else

with respect to law promulgation. Until it does, skepticism will ensue and frustrations will be

exacerbated leading to more calls for the criticality of the urgency of law implementation and

enforcement. A costly and vicious cycle will ensue as has been observed in other complex and

high conflict situations.

Yet, to this end, extremely relevant lessons have learned regarding corruption and building upon

already existing norms of behavior. These lessons highlight the criticality of working with what

exists and shaping it through re-shaping norms of behavior that have immediate, tangible and

most importantly, ripple -effects (via communication and demonstration effects) throughout

networks.

2. Bridge the Gaps between the Formal and Informal Mechanisms . According to AHDR, jirgas

settle more than 80% of judicial cases due to the lack of trust and confidence in the formal


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judicial system as well as their physical absence and low capacity. 29

3. Implement the Broken Windows Model .30 Corruption, of course, depicts a norm of behavior.

Not exactly one conducive to building a sustainable economy for many. But it is a norm for

those involved. Given that, a question becomes: how do we create the conditions for new

norms of behavior to be realized and begin to push out (some of the) cor rupt behaviors?

Norms are no more than shared expectations of behavior, and given that people expect

corruption *to be* the norm, how are such expectations changed?

This is where the Broken Windows model may be of relevance, where every infraction, no matter how

small, impacts others, creating cascading swells of bad behaviors. So, the question becomes: how do

we inject possible good behaviors to minimize the scale of these swells and thereby begin tocreate a new set of expectations and norms?

One element of NSPs effectiveness lies in its focus on clarifying decision rights and expectations among

the people engaged in its programs. The very process of engaging a broader range of people and getting

them involved in decisions begins to c reate new norms.

Norms result from shared expectations of behaviors. Large networks consist of sets of small-world

networks, each of which is influenced by sets of norms. These small-world networks result from the

establishment of norms in the absence of binding laws whether national, regional, or even within

village. The small world networks that result as a result of increased connectivity creates those norms

of expectations and behaviors. Such norms allow people to begin to think beyond the transaction.

Doing so begins to strengthen the ties between people as it begins to change the overall shape of the

network. This is *precisely* one of the key lessons of the NSP. It is also why mechanisms to manage

dispute are an essential component of VALSSERV activities.

29 Three kinds of laws rule across the country: statutory law, customary law and Sharia / Islamic law. Customary law is acompilation of indigenous tribal coValSServ and local customs as a means to resolve disputes and collective reconciliationthrough informal justice mechanism known as jirgah, shura and markah. Jirgah is commonly used among Pashtuns but theterms shura and marka are used among Tajiks, Hazras and Uzbeks.30 James Q Wison and George Kelling, Broken Windows . http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/_atlantic_monthly-broken_windows.pdf


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One mechanism to do so and one that could touch many people from the bottom-up is putting in

place alternative dispute mechanisms (ADR). A range of ADR options and delivery models exist,

including those over mobile devices.

The weakness of Afghan rule of law typically first affects citizens at local levels in Shuras/Jirgas orSharia courts. A proposed pilot is Designed around the shaping new norms, based on culturally

acceptable and existing behaviors. One of the mechanisms to doing so is through the use of cell phones.

Afghanistan is a verbal culture and, while it will be awhile before broadband reaches many, the numbers

of mobile penetration in both urban and rural areas provides an opportunity for norm-shifting based on

both pre-existing cultural and telephony practices. Consequently, pilots around alternative disruptive

resolution (ADR) may be one appropriate mechanism that could link together dispersed people in

mountain valleys and support the establishment of new norms for conflict resolution. 31

A pilot called m-jirga is Designed to complement formal and extend informal mechanisms for conflict

resolution. m-jirga services are available in every local dialect, and elders will be local tot eh parties

involved in the dispute. Mediation services are also available to the parties via mobile phone in advance

of the Jirga being convened. In addition, post-condition education and training is provided for on-going

reach back support as new types of conflicts are handled and new capacity developed. 32

Communities with mobile phones will automatically find ways to integrate them into justice patterns

such as the village councils and various regional councils. [Afghanistan] is not going to have Judge Judy

type courts anytime soon. [However], such programs be used for community justice, also encourage

competing narratives that bear witness and feed into a national reconciliation process? Experience in

Sri Lanka suggests that the careful design of projects of this nature is pivotal to their success on the

ground. Examples of on-demand over the air (OTA) access of progressive judicial interpretations of

Islamic law and vital precedents in cases related to land, marriage etc. exist that help villagers settle

31 Recommended VALSSERV-A ADR projects are based on norm-building lessons from other countries, including Sri Lanka, withchallenges regarding government effectiveness and efficiency. See, for example, solutions and lessons from Freedom Fone'shttp://mobileactive.org/directory/vendors/dialup and the 1919 service in Sri Lanka,http://www.icta.lk/index.php/en/component/content/article/86-re-engineering-government/610-1919-one-window-for-government-services-information . 32 The scope of the m-jirga projects are restorative (curative) based rather than retributive. For example, instead of being sentto prison for a crime, the culprit is asked to pay Poar , or compensative money, to the victim or the victims family and to ask forforgiveness. This special custom of seeking apology and eliminating enmity is known as Nanawati among Pashtun and Uzr among other communities. Jeff Aresty Op. cit.
http://mobileactive.org/directory/vendors/dialuphttp://www.icta.lk/index.php/en/component/content/article/86-re-engineering-government/610-1919-one-window-for-government-services-informationhttp://www.icta.lk/index.php/en/component/content/article/86-re-engineering-government/610-1919-one-window-for-government-services-informationhttp://www.icta.lk/index.php/en/component/content/article/86-re-engineering-government/610-1919-one-window-for-government-services-informationhttp://www.icta.lk/index.php/en/component/content/article/86-re-engineering-government/610-1919-one-window-for-government-services-informationhttp://www.icta.lk/index.php/en/component/content/article/86-re-engineering-government/610-1919-one-window-for-government-services-informationhttp://mobileactive.org/directory/vendors/dialup


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disputes without going to, or having to hold a qawmi jirga .33

Critical to such programs being effective, of course, is that they work in parallel, and complement,

existing judicial and other mechanisms of handling disputes. The collective engagement of those

involved

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