Valentin Kunev Manager, BBSPA - iene.eu

Presentation BBSPA

Valentin Kunev

Manager, BBSPA

3rd SE Europe Hydrocarbons Upstream Workshop Royal Olympic Hotel, Athens, October 30-31, 2018

Oil production and consumption (refinery throughput) in the BBS Region

BBSPA statistical review

4

Crude oil production, million tonnes

mt/y Albania B & H Bulgaria Croatia Georgia Greece Hungary Macedonia Romania Serbia Turkey Ukraine

1990 1.07 0 0.06 2.5 0.19 0.77 1.92 0 7.93 1.06 3.71 4.09

1991 0.85 0 0.06 2.18 0.19 0.79 1.84 0 6.79 1.1 4.36 3.95

1992 0.59 0 0.05 1.92 0.13 0.65 1.77 0 6.62 1.17 4.28 3.62

1993 0.57 0 0.04 1.9 0.04 0.54 1.65 0 6.71 1.15 3.89 3.34

1994 0.54 0 0.04 1.58 0.05 0.5 1.58 0 6.74 1.03 3.7 3.16

1995 0.52 0 0.04 1.5 0.05 0.44 1.67 0 6.72 1.07 3.52 2.99

1996 0.49 0 0.03 1.47 0.13 0.48 1.48 0 6.63 1.02 3.5 2.95

1997 0.36 0 0.03 1.53 0.13 0.44 1.36 0 6.52 0.98 3.45 2.89

1998 0.37 0 0.03 1.59 0.12 0.29 1.26 0 6.31 0.92 3.22 2.7

1999 0.33 0 0.04 1.18 0.09 0.02 1.24 0 6.14 0.97 2.94 2.67

2000 0.31 0 0.03 1.31 0.11 0.28 1.14 0 6 0.98 2.8 3.7

2001 0.34 0 0.03 1.22 0.1 0.19 1.06 0 6 0.9 2.6 3.7

2002 0.31 0 0.03 1.11 0.07 0.19 1.05 0 5.8 0.81 2.4 3.7

2003 0.36 0 0.03 1.05 0.14 0.14 1.13 0 5.7 0.68 2.4 4

2004 0.44 0 0.03 1 0.1 0.13 1.08 0 5.5 0.67 2.27 4.2

2005 0.42 0 0.03 0.95 0.07 0.1 0.88 0 5.2 0.61 2.27 4.4

2006 0.5 0 0.03 0.92 0.06 0.09 0.86 0 4.78 0.55 2.16 4.52

2007 0.56 0 0.03 0.88 0.06 0.07 0.8 0 4.54 0.65 2.13 4.43

2008 0.58 0 0.03 0.83 0.05 0.08 0.74 0 4.54 0.65 2.15 4.21

2009 0.58 0 0.02 0.78 0.05 0.13 0.72 0 4.32 0.66 2.4 4

2010 0.74 0 0.02 0.76 0.05 0.12 0.64 0 4.17 0.87 2.54 3.54

2011 0.89 0 0.02 0.66 0.05 0.1 0.6 0 4.22 1.02 2.43 3.32

2012 1.03 0 0.02 0.6 0.07 0.07 0.59 0 4.11 1.2 2.32 3.29

2013 1.23 0 0.02 0.59 0.05 0.07 0.61 0 4.13 1.16 2.4 2.75

2014 1.34 0 0.02 0.53 0.04 0.06 0.57 0 3.99 1.11 2.46 2.52

2015 1.27 0 0.02 0.61 0.04 0.02 0.6 0 3.99 1.02 2.52 2.46

2016 1.05 0 0.02 0.68 0.03 0.16 0.69 0 3.68 1.04 2.57 1.6

2017 0.95 0 0.02 0.68 0.03 0.13 0.71 0 3.53 na 2.55 1.5

y-o-y -10% 0% 0% 0% -19% 3% -4% -1% -6%

.

In 2017 Hungary increased crude production while Albania, Romania, Ukraine and Turkey decreased.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Crude Oil Production, mt/y

Albania Croatia Greece Hungary

Romania Turkey Ukraine Crude oil output in 2017 down by 4%

Hungary slightly increased production while Albania, Romania, Ukraine and Turkey decreased

The need for oil in the region increased. Refinery throughput was up 4%


5

Refinery throughput, million tonnes

mt/y Albania B & H Bulgaria Croatia Georgia Greece Hungary Macedonia Romania Serbia Turkey Ukraine

1990 1.09 2 8.29 6.86 2.38 14.41 8.16 1.22 24.1 4.9 23 57.19

1991 0.85 1.82 4.51 4.54 1.92 12.81 7.67 0.96 15.23 3.5 22.6 53.29

1992 0.59 0 2.42 3.96 0.45 13.42 7.47 1 12.97 2.17 23.19 38.02

1993 0.57 0 5.7 4.98 0.32 11.19 7.72 1.02 14.25 1.35 25.52 23.01

1994 0.54 0 6.96 5.09 0.19 14.01 7.05 0.14 15 1.23 24.89 18.96

1995 0.52 0 7.99 5.44 0.05 14.86 7.51 0.12 15.49 1.37 27.2 16.29

1996 0.49 0 6.95 4.93 0.02 17.93 6.79 0.66 13.7 2.3 26.44 12.19

1997 0.37 0 5.96 5.26 0.04 18.17 7.03 0.4 12.78 3.09 26.96 11.84

1998 0.37 0 5.58 5.32 0.03 18.54 7.18 0.76 12.28 2.45 27.71 12.5

1999 0.33 0 5.66 5.48 0.04 16.06 7.04 0.6 10.41 1.34 25.72 10.54

2000 0.32 0.52 5.33 5.23 0 20.66 5.94 0.86 10.7 1.26 24.2 7.6

2001 0.33 0.25 5.44 4.83 0 20.27 6.8 0.64 11.4 2.77 25.8 15

2002 0.37 0.23 4.79 4.83 0 20.41 5.99 0.54 11.7 3.39 26.1 20.6

2003 0.4 0.07 4.99 4.87 0 20.13 6.34 0.83 10.9 3.68 26.5 23.5

2004 0.44 0.14 5.29 5.08 0 20.94 6.34 0.83 11.09 4 26 22.9

2005 0.43 0.14 6.2 4.85 0 19.4 6.99 0.96 13.05 3.8 25.5 18.04

2006 0.44 0.02 7.09 4.64 0 21.46 6.9 1.07 12.74 3.02 26.49 13.38

2007 0.41 0.02 7.09 4.99 0 21.99 7 1.09 12.33 3.23 25.39 12.8

2008 0.4 0.02 7.12 4.6 0 20.65 6.92 1.06 13.06 3.25 24.21 10.21

2009 0.24 0.98 6.25 4.8 0 19.56 6.24 0.97 11.24 2.88 16.98 9.5

2010 0.25 1.14 5.52 3.86 0 18.77 6.36 0.83 9.76 2.79 19.22 10.5

2011 0.2 1.22 5.07 3.24 0 16.05 6.3 0.72 9.68 2.36 20.99 9.25

2012 0.07 1.02 5.9 3.07 0 20.52 6.09 0.26 9.1 2.3 22.12 4.57

2013 0.07 1.04 5.62 2.87 0 19.89 5.96 na 10.07 2.75 19.93 2.99

2014 0.07 1 5.16 2.35 0 20.69 6.52 na 11.44 2.61 20 2.08

2015 0.07 0.92 6 2.78 0 21.66 6.47 na 12.42 2.94 25.53 0.42

2016 0.12 0.87 6.27 3.12 0 23.19 6.63 na 11.2 2.97 27.37 0.18

2017 0.44 na 6.75 3.57 0 24.03 6.51 na 11.41 na 28.09 0.49

y-o-y 8% 14% 4% -2% 2% 3%

.

Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Turkey and Ukraine increased refinery throughput in 2017, while Hungary decreased.

na - data difficult to find

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160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

mt

Refinery Throughput, mt/y

Albania Bulgaria Croatia

Georgia Greece Hungary

Romania Turkey Ukraine

Gas production and consumption in the BBS Region

Gas output in 2017 up by 2% due to increase in Romania and Ukraine

Demand up by 15%, concentrated in Turkey and Ukraine


6

Gas production, Bcm

bcm/y Albania B & H Bulgaria Croatia Georgia Greece Hungary Macedonia Romania Serbia Turkey Ukraine

1990 0.25 0 0.01 1.99 0.06 0.17 4.69 0 28.2 0.65 0.21 27.81

1991 0.15 0 0.01 1.83 0.06 0.17 4.74 0 24.68 0.75 0.21 23.29

1992 0.11 0 0.04 1.81 0.05 0.16 4.45 0 21.67 0.84 0.2 20.83

1993 0.08 0 0.07 2.06 0.05 0.11 4.79 0 20.63 0.84 0.2 19.15

1994 0.05 0 0.06 1.8 0 0.06 4.62 0 18.24 0.8 0.2 18.25

1995 0.03 0 0.05 1.98 0.01 0.05 4.66 0 17.78 0.83 0.18 18.75

1996 0.02 0 0.04 1.8 0 0.06 4.43 0 16.94 0.55 0.21 19

1997 0.02 0 0.03 1.73 0 0.06 4.13 0 14.65 0.59 0.26 18.72

1998 0.02 0 0.03 1.58 0 0.05 3.65 0 13.72 0.68 0.57 18.55

1999 0.02 0 0.03 1.56 0 0 3.23 0 13.77 0.71 0.74 18.68

2000 0.01 0 0.02 1.66 0.07 0.05 3.19 0 13.7 0.67 0.64 18.1

2001 0.01 0 0.02 1.76 0.04 0.05 3.23 0 12.9 0.54 0.31 18.4

2002 0.01 0 0.02 1.76 0.02 0.05 3.1 0 12.4 0.43 0.38 18.8

2003 0.01 0 0.01 1.85 0.02 0.04 2.94 0 13.4 0.34 0.56 19.5

2004 0.02 0 0.33 1.85 0.01 0.03 3.02 0 13 0.3 0.71 20.1

2005 0.02 0 0.54 1.84 0.01 0.02 2.82 0 12.7 0.26 0.9 20.6

2006 0.02 0 0.52 2.03 0.01 0.03 2.07 0 12.1 0.23 0.9 20.7

2007 0.02 0 0.33 2.35 0.02 0.02 2.57 0 11.52 0.24 0.89 20.6

2008 0.02 0 0.25 2.04 0.02 0.01 2.6 0 11.42 0.29 1.01 21

2009 0.09 0 0.02 1.9 0.01 0.01 3.09 0 10.86 0.29 0.73 21.18

2010 0.09 0 0.07 2.33 0.01 0.01 2.94 0 11.51 0.43 0.68 20.5

2011 0 0 0.55 2.47 0.01 0 3.1 0 10.68 0.62 0.79 20.6

2012 0 0 0.36 2.01 0.01 0.01 2.06 0 10.37 0.48 0.63 20.5

2013 0 0 0.28 1.98 0.01 0.01 1.8 0 10.97 0.47 0.54 21.4

2014 0 0 0.18 1.81 0.01 0 1.85 0 11.22 0.47 0.47 20.5

2015 0.03 0 0.08 1.83 0.01 0 1.77 0 11.25 0.43 0.39 19.89

2016 0.09 0 0.09 1.7 0.01 0 1.84 0 9.93 0.43 0.37 20.2

2017 0.1 0 0.07 1.53 0.01 0 1.81 0 10.64 0.4 0.35 20.5

y-o-y 11% -22% -10% -2% 7% -7% -5% 1%

Gas production in 2017 increased in Romania and Ukraine, and declined in Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia

and Turkey.

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Gas Production, Bcm/y

Bulgaria Croatia Greece

Hungar y Romania Serbia

Tur key Ukraine


7

Gas consumption, Bcm

bcm/y Albania B & H Bulgaria Croatia Georgia Greece Hungary Macedonia Romania Serbia Turkey Ukraine

1990 0.25 0.49 6.64 2.7 5.6 0.17 10.97 0 35.49 3.18 3.51 113.04

1991 0.15 0.45 5.68 2.5 4.9 0.17 10.88 0 29.29 3.08 4.29 114.75

1992 0.11 0.42 5 2.59 4.87 0.16 9.56 0 26.08 2.78 4.7 106.01

1993 0.08 0.14 4.68 2.74 3.91 0.11 10.29 0 25.08 1.73 5.22 98.99

1994 0.05 0.17 4.7 2.58 2 0.06 10.39 0 22.84 1.45 5.56 88.02

1995 0.03 0.15 5.64 2.38 1.19 0.05 11.29 0 23.68 1.66 7.12 84.28

1996 0.02 0.25 5.75 2.67 1.07 0.06 12.6 0 23.9 2.39 8.6 91.68

1997 0.02 0.15 4.55 2.77 0.92 0.21 11.95 0 19.62 2.65 10.27 81.64

1998 0.02 0.17 3.85 2.66 0.94 0.89 12.03 0.02 18.44 2.47 11.01 73.22

1999 0.02 0.18 3.31 2.69 0.85 1.5 12.19 0.04 16.9 1.78 11.01 79.42

2000 0.01 0.27 3.42 2.45 1.14 2 11.97 0.07 17 1.8 15.46 73.4

2001 0.01 0.29 3.14 2.57 0.97 1.88 13.29 0.09 15.8 2.02 16.68 70.5

2002 0.01 0.3 2.74 2.68 0.81 2.02 13.3 0.09 15.9 2.08 18.01 69.8

2003 0.01 0.21 2.91 2.67 0.92 2.29 14.59 0.08 18.7 2.29 21.74 76.3

2004 0.02 0.37 2.84 2.83 1.08 2.51 13.72 0.07 18 2.58 22.88 75.8

2005 0.02 0.38 3.22 2.71 1.3 2.67 14.63 0.08 17.6 2.44 27.93 76.4

2006 0.02 0.37 3.25 2.69 1.3 3.28 14.44 0.08 17 2.28 31.18 73.9

2007 0.02 0.35 3.41 3.1 1.07 4.05 13.41 0.1 16.37 2.38 36.42 69.8

2008 0.02 0.31 3.34 3.06 1.56 4.2 13.32 0.12 14.5 2.49 37.53 59.7

2009 0.01 0.23 2.55 2.78 1.68 3.45 11.06 0.1 13.26 1.78 35.7 47

2010 0.01 0.24 2.81 2.96 1.69 3.97 12.44 0.12 13.9 2.35 39.61 52.17

2011 0 0.28 2.99 3.17 1.65 4.74 11.08 0.14 14.28 2.67 44.71 59.3

2012 0 0.26 2.99 2.91 1.49 4.34 10 0.14 13.5 2.22 45.25 54.77

2013 0 0.2 2.88 2.67 1.54 3.84 9.28 0.15 12.48 2.19 45.64 45.5

2014 0 0.17 2.78 2.43 2.19 2.63 8.5 0.14 11.59 1.98 48.61 42.14

2015 0 0.22 3.09 2.59 2.02 3.2 9.13 0.13 10.93 2.19 47.65 33.72

2016 0.09 0.23 3.13 2.65 2.26 4.07 9.72 0.21 11.42 2.23 46.45 26.7

2017 0.09 0.24 3.20 3.10 2.30 4.97 10.37 0.28 12.29 3.00 53.60 31.46

y-o-y 0% 4% 2% 17% 2% 22% 7% 33% 8% 35% 15% 18%

Gas consumption in 2017 increased in all countries in the region.

0

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Gas Consumption, Bcm/yAlbania B & H Bulgaria

Croatia Georgia Greece

Hungary Macedonia Romania

Serbia Turkey Ukraine

Oil and gas import dependency in the BBS Region

In 2017 the region produced 12% of the total quantities processed in the refineries, while 88% was imported. Countries were more than 60% dependent on oil import.

The gas produced in 2017 was 29% of the total consumption, while 71% was imported. The majority of the countries were more than 80% dependent on import. Croatia and Romania were less than 50% dependent on gas import.


8

Oil and Gas Import Dependency

In 2017 the region produced 12% of the total quantities processed in the refineries, while 88% was imported. All

countries were more than 60% dependent on import.

The gas produced in 2017 was 29% of the total consumption, while 71% was imported. The majority of the coun-

tries were more than 80% dependent on import. Croatia, Romania and Romania were less than 50% dependent

on import.

Production29%

Import71%

Gas Production-Import for the Region

Production12%

Import88%

Crude Oil Production-Import for the Region

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

B & H Bulgaria Greece Turkey Hungary Croatia Romania

Crude Oil Import Dependency2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Georgia Greece Macedonia Turkey Bulgaria Serbia Hungary Croatia Ukraine Romania

Gas Import Dependency

2017

Gas pipeline projects status

34

Gas pipeline projects in the BBS region

Gas Pipelines Projects Status, June 2017

Projects/Phase Idea/Concept Feasibility

Study Design Construction

Existing Projects

TAP

Turkish Stream

Greece-Bulgaria

BRUA

KRK LNG Project and related infrastructure

Poland- Slovakia Interconnection

Turkey-Bulgaria

Bulgaria-Serbia

Ionian-Adriatic

P ipeline

Croatia – Slovenia Interconnection

Slovenia-Hungary gas pipeline project

AGRI

Alexandroupolis/ Kavala LNG Project

Balkan Gas Hub

Podisor-Black Sea

Tesla Project

Eastring

Romania - Serbia

Vertical Gas Corridor

White Stream

EastMed

Cancelled Projects

Nabucco

Poseidon

South Stream

Commissioned projects

TANAP

Bulgaria- Romania Gas Pipeline

Moldova-Romania Gas Pipeline Interconnection

Hungary – Croatia Gas Interconnection

Hungary – Romania Gas Interconnection

Slovakia – Hungary Gas Pipeline

Vojany-Uzhgorod gas pipeline

Gas Pipeline Projects in the BBS Region

All projects will bring gas from outside the region. The projects either will change the routes of Russian gas supply or the supply source – Azerbaijan, LNG or Eastern Mediterranean new discoveries.

One project, however, will bring new gas internally: Podisor –Black Sea

Some projects are on the stage of construction, others are about to start. Some are less certain.

But realities show that sometimes less certain projects happen first

Relinquished, or to be relinquished

Free block Active license

• OMV Petrom offshore production: 0.29 mt/y and 1.36 Bcm/y

• Black Sea Oil & Gas, Ana and Doina gas fields: 10-20 Bcmreserves

• Domino gas discovery: 40-80 Bcm

• LUKoil/ PanAtlantic/Romgazgas discovery: 30 Bcm

Romanian Exploration Blocks

Relinquished block Active license Closed tender Ongoing tender

Petroceltic holds a gas field of 0.3 Bcmreserves

Total/OMV/Repsoldrilled two deep water wells, one more to start

Shell plans to drill one deep water well

Bulgarian energy ministry prepares a tender for one deep water block

Bulgarian Exploration Blocks

Upstream activities update

28

Bulgaria

Active license

Forthcoming and ongoing tender

March 2017. Shell completed the seismic acquisition programme of its block offshore Bulgaria.

July 2017. Noble’s Globetrotter II will drill its second well Rubin-1 in Han Asparuh block offshore Bulgaria this au-

tumn under a contract with Total.

January 2018 . Shell is expected to start an exploration drilling programme in block 1-14 Khan Kubrat in the Bulgari-

an sector of the Black Sea in late 2018 or in 2019. Drilling operations on the second well Rubin-1 contracted with

Total were completed as expected in early January 2018.

May 2018. Mizia Oil and Gas , which has four exploration permits onshore Bulgaria, received an one –year exten-

sion on one of them.

Closed tender

Bulgarian exploration blocks

June 2018

Deep water wells in the Black Sea

Domino 1 well + 7 more appraisal wells at the water depth of 900 m drilled by OMV/Exxon in Neptun block to the depth of 3600 m. Gas discovery in Miocene Siliclastic reservoirs. Biogenic gas. 40-80 Bcm reserves.

Romania

The Lira-1X well + one more well drilled at the water depth of 700 m, drilled by by LUKoil/Pan-Atlantic/Romgaz in Trident block to the total depth 2700 m, 30 Bcm of reserves.

Bulgaria

Polshkov well + 1 more well drilled in Han Asparuh block at the depth of 2000 m by Total/OMV/Repsol. Oil finding reported.


Turkey

Sile 1 well drilled by Shell/TPAO in 2015 at the water depth of 2000 m to the depth of 3920 m in the block on the border with Blgaria.

Sinop 1 well drilled by TPAO/Petrobras/ExxonMobil at the water depth of 2200 m to the depth of 5525 m in the block bordering with Bulgaria.

Surmene 1 well drilled by TPAO at the water depth of 2000 m to the depth of 4830.

Yassihoyuk 1 well drilled by TPAO at the water depth of 2000 m to the depth of 5300 m.

Kastamonu 1 well drilled by ExxonMobil and TPAO at the water depth of 2200 m to the depth of 5000 m.


Russia

Maria 1 well drilled by Eni/Rosneft at the water depth of 2000 m to the depth of 6126 m.

Summary

18 wells were drilled in the deep waters of the Black Sea, from which 8 wells at the depth of 2000 m and more.

FID to be made for Domino discovery.

Planned wells in Bulgaria and Turkey

Thank you for your attention

Valentin Kunev Manager, BBSPA - iene.eu

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