Using the Resource: June 2013 East Asian Neighbours: Geopolitical Tensions.

Using the Resource: June 2013

East Asian Neighbours: Geopolitical Tensions

Figure 1Near Neighbours:(look at the scale, how ‘near’ are they? These are not small, European scale distances we are talking about!

1. ChinaPeople’s Republic of ChinaCapital: BeijingOne party stateFastest growing major economyMost populous countrySecond biggest economy in world

2. JapanArchipelago of over 6000 islandsDemocracy with an Emperor10th Biggest population3rd biggest economyTokyo (capital) is world’s biggest city

3. North KoreaDemocratic People’s Republic of KoreaOne party state, with a supreme leaderClaims power over whole Korean PeninsulaJuche ideology of self-relianceCapital is Pyongyang

4. South KoreaRepublic of South KoreaCapital SeoulAsian Tiger – 15th biggest economyPresidential Republic

5. TaiwanOfficially: Republic of ChinaCapital: TaipeiROC retreated to Taiwan after Chinese civil warNot recognised anymore by UN, or anyone who maintains links with the PRC (only 22 countires and the Holy SeeUnofficially, most recognise it as an independent country

6. RussiaThe Russian FederationCapital: MoscowLargest country in world8th biggest economy in worldTo the south:

South East Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines etc (growing economies and large populations)

To the west:Central & South Asia (India, the Stans, Bangladesh)

To the north:The Arctic Circle

To the east:Pacific Ocean, and the the USA

Figure 1: implications

• Far more players in this area than immediately obvious

• Dramatic developmental, political and economic differences within the region

• Complex political and economic histories• Would be foolish to ignore the importance of

other superpowers (USA, Russia?) in this area.

Figure 2Japanese politics:Head of State: Emperor Akihito, with limited, mainly ceremonial powers.

Power lies with democratically elected Prime Minister, currently Shinzo Abe. Bicameral parliament, dominated by liberal social democrats.

Recently very changeable leadership – 6 Prime Ministers since 2006.

Chinese politics:Head of State: President and Premier

Ruled by Communist Party of China, in a single party state. Frequently described as communist, socialist, authoritarian, centralised and even dictatorial.

Current president: Xi Jinping (Hu Jintao handed over the presidency in December 2012).

Continuing policy of liberalisation, to continue expansion of economy.

North Korean politics:

Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea, is considered the ‘Eternal President’. (Died 1994).

His son, Kim Jong-il, considered the Supreme Leader, ruled until his death in December 2011.

Current Supreme Leader is Kim Jong-un, the third generation of the family to run the communist country. (He was the third son of Kim Jong-il).

South Korean politics:Democratic, multi-party state.

Prime minister:

President: Park Geun-hye , the first female president, sworn in in December 2012. She replaced Lee Myung-bak, who had increasingly taken a hardline attitude to North Korea, although was open to dialogue with wider regional powers.

Figure 2: Implications

• A wide range of political systems• Obvious groupings are democratic, or capitalist (Japan &

South Korea) v one party, or communist (China & North Korea)

• Could group as those with hereditary leadership (Japan & North Korea) v those without (China & South Korea)

• Need to think of links with countries with similar systems• Time of change, three have changed leadership since the

resource was created• Obvious conflict politically is N v S Korea, but others are

possible.

Figure 3Some land border conflicts: especially the DMZ, a huge potential conflict for today and the future.

Many maritime disputes:Ownership of islandsOwnership of watersVariety of players involvedMost are historical disputes, with roots in WWII

The Kuril Islands• Players: Japan and Russia

• The island chain known as the Kurils stretches north across the Pacific Ocean from the Japanese island of Hokkaido to the southern tip of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. • Four islands - which Russia calls the Southern Kurils and Japan calls the Northern Territories are the subject of a 60-

year-old dispute between the two nations. • Because of the dispute, Russia and Japan have not yet signed a peace treaty to end World War II.

Background:In 1855, the Treaty of Shimoda gave Japan ownership of the four southern islands and Russia ownership of everything to the north. • Russia took control of the islands at the end of the war, and by 1949 it had deported all17,000 residents to Japan. • In 1956, the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration restored diplomatic ties between the two nations, but a formal peace deal

remained out of reach because of the territorial dispute. • A 30,000-strong Russian community now lives on the islands and there is also a Russian military presence on Iturup. • The islands are surrounded by rich fishing grounds and are thought to have offshore reserves of oil and gas. Rare

rhenium deposits have been found on the Kudriavy volcano on Iturup. • Tourism is also a potential source of income, as the islands have several volcanoes and a variety of birdlife. • Meanwhile, the Japanese government has worked to maintain public awareness of the dispute.

Sea of JapanMain players: Japan & South KoreaAlso involved: North Korea, International Hydrographic Organisation

• Essentially, a dispute over the name• 1992, the Koreas raised objections to the name ‘Sea of Japan’, claiming it had been established when they were under Japanese rule, and therefore had not been able to state their claims. Historical maps are the main source of info, along with general usage, however the root of the dispute is probably a feeling of resentment over Japan’s invasion during WWII. • Preferred names are:

• Japan – Sea of Japan• South Korea – the East Sea• North Korea – East Sea of Korea

• Proposal rejected in 2012 by International Hydrographic Organisation, who now only recognise term ‘Sea of Japan’.

• The UN has supported both sides in ‘’the past, today it’s stance is essentially ‘sort it out yourselves!”.

Liancourt Rocks

• Players: Japan and South Korea• Dispute over a group of tiny, volcanic islands• Takeshima (Japanese name) Dokdo (south Korean name• 2006 – gunboats and military presence from both parties in

the area. • 2012 – following Japan’s defeat by South Korea in the football

at the London Olympics, a Korean player held aloft a banner saying ‘Dokdo is our territory’.

• They are roughly 210km from each country. • Lie in rich fishing grounds with possible natural gas reserves.

Socotra Rock• Players: China & South Korea• Also known as: Ieodo (SK) and Suyan (China). • 150km from SK, 250km from China. • Issue stems from dispute over maritime ownership. • Each country has an Exclusive Economic Zone, and the rock is in

the overlap. • UN Convention on the Sea says EEZs extend 370km offshore, to

technically, both could be right. • Lies in an area which probably has oil and mineral deposits. • Important strategically, as a naval/military base. • Long running dispute, which at time has become violent and

involved military maneuvers and arrests.

Senkaku IslandsKey Players: China, Japan, Taiwan

Uninhabited islands controlled by JapanSince oil was found in 1968 ChinaAnd Taiwan have disputed the claim. Historically the islands have been controlled by Japan and China, but control was handed over to the Japanese when the Americans withdrew in 1972.

This is one of the few issues Taiwan and China agree on – that the islands are part of Taiwan.

Taiwan• Main players: China & Taiwan• Taiwan is officially the Republic of China. • Originally based in mainland China, the Republic of China now governs the island of

Taiwan (formerly known as "Formosa").• Following the Chinese civil war, the Communist Party of China took full control of

mainland China and founded the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. The ROC relocated its government to Taiwan.

• In 1971, the PRC assumed China's seat at the United Nations, which the ROC originally occupied. International recognition of the ROC has gradually eroded as most countries switched recognition to the PRC. Only 22 UN member states and the Holy See currently maintain formal diplomatic relations with the ROC, though it has informal ties with most other states via its representative offices.

• Dimplomatic relations between the ‘two Chinas’ are strained, as neither recognises the legitimacy of the other. However, since 1992, Taiwan has removed from its constitution any mention of reclaiming the mainland.

• Taiwan is acknowledged by other organisations though, such as the WTO and APEC.

The DMZ• The Korean Demilitarized Zone is a strip of land across the Korean peninsular, around 4km wide, which

divides the two Koreas. • It runs roughly along the 38th parallel, and is a buffer zone. • It was created as part of the Korean Armistice Agreement between North Korea, China and the UN

Command forces in 1953. • It is the most heavily militarised border in the world. • It was drawn up following WWII, based on the division between Soviet controlled north and USA

controlled south. These became North and South Korea respectively. • It was one of the most tense fronts during the Cold War.• Fought over during the Korean War, 1950 to 1953, when DPRK invaded across the 38th parallel. • Since the Armistice was signed, it has been monitored by members of the Neutral Nations Supervisory

Commission (NNSC). Since 1953, members of the Swiss and Swedish Armed Forces have been members of the NNSC stationed near the DMZ.

• Large numbers of troops are still stationed along both sides of the line, each side guarding against potential aggression from the other side. The armistice agreement explains exactly how many military personnel and what kind of weapons are allowed in the DMZ. Soldiers from both sides may patrol inside the DMZ, but they may not cross the MDL (the middle of the DMZ). Sporadic outbreaks of violence killed over 500 South Korean soldiers and 50 U.S. soldiers along the DMZ between 1953 and 1999.

• Two villages were allowed to remain within the DMZ and protected by the UN Command. • Obviously the most potentially violent and most serious conflict in the world today, let alone in East

Asia.

Figure 3: Implications

• Many conflicts are rooted in historical conflicts: Japan’s invasions of many of its neighbours during WWII has stoked many tensions.

• Natural resources, including oil, gas and minerals are adding to the desire to make claims.

• Some conflicts rooted in Cold War, the DMZ in particular.• The role of other superpowers needs to be included: USA, UN,

even Britain and its role in WWII. • Some conflicts are considered solved by the international

community (naming of the Sea of Japan), but others are still wide open for various reasons (UN convention on the law of the sea, recognition of Taiwan).

Figure 4USA has a huge presence in the West Pacific, for two main reasons:1. Bases were expanded during the Cold War in order to control the spread of communism in Asia2. Controlling shipping in the Pacific is one of the reasons for the USA’s continuing economic dominance

Presence is concentrated in Japan and South Korea, but smaller numbers elsewhere are strategically important.

Bases in South Korea, Japan and Guam are theoretically within range of North Korean missiles.

North Korea is currently threatening action against US bases, because the US has staged Training missions in and with South Korea, and because of recent sanction imposed by the UN as a response to North Korea’s nuclear programme.

China’s Naval PolicyCurrently focusing on growth of a blue water navy, which is capable of operating in the open ocean for long periods of time (so will have air-craft carriers) and doesn’t need to operate from a land base.

China has ICBM with a range of 15,000km, allowing them to reach just about anywhere on Earth with long-range weapons.

China also has naval disputes with Vietnam and the Philippines (backed by the US), over the South China Sea, with strategic importance and fishing rights claimed.

Figure 4: Implications

• The presence of the USA could actually be considered the cause of many of the disputes in this area.

• The growth of the Chinese Navy’s capabilities increase its stature as a superpower.

• Controlling the western Pacific is considered important by the economic and military superpowers.

• The main conflict is still really China v USA.

Figure 5

China: huge number of active troops, best hardware and greatest range.Japan: smallest army and amount of hardware but also has all those American troops stationed there; so do they need their own huge army really? North Korea and South Korea both also have 8 million reservists, who could be called up at any point. North Korea’s military capability is unknown, really. Russia (its Pacific fleet, based at vladivostock, is currently being upgrded) and the USA both have a huge military presence in the area.

Figure 5: Implications

• Military conflict in the region could potentially involve six nuclear powers

• China, the USA and to a lesser extent, Russia are the largest military presences in the area.

• Russia and the USA could hold their own with their Pacific fleet, but could also call in troops from other places.

• China is the fastest growing military in the area. • South Korea and Japan have smaller, but well equipped

militaries, which would have the support of the US. • North Korea is a wild card, it has a huge number of troops

relative to its size, but the state of its hardware, and its nuclear capabilities are unknown, ranging from its aggressive boasting the joke images proliferating on the internet at the moment.

What’s True?

Further reading:

COLD WAR• http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war• http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/coldwar/JAPAN, WWII & the legacy• http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21226068• http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-russia-j

apan-peace-treaty-20130430,0,2479970.story

• http://www.history.co.uk/explore-history/ww2/imperial-japan.html

• NOW• Just about every newspaper, website, forum, blog that exists!

Share what you find!

And Finally…

• Remember, generally, most relationships are good!• Japan is South Korea’s third largest trading partner• All are members of APEC, all compete in the East

Asian Games, they almost all also belong to the Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum, Asian Network of Major Cities, Association o Asian Parliaments for Peace, Asian Development Bank, Northwest Pacific Action Plan,