Using Social Science to Improve Evacuation Compliance National Hurricane Conference April 18, 2011 Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow.

Using Social

Using Social

Science to Science to

Improve Improve

Evacuation Evacuation

ComplianceCompliance

National Hurricane Conference

National Hurricane Conference

April 18, 2011

April 18, 2011

Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

It’s All About

It’s All About

FeelingsFeelings

Alternate Title:

PROS AND CONS OF EVACUATION FROM SURGE ZONES

“We’re Not Going Anywhere!" +

Always MORE reasons NOT to leave

Reasons to not evacuate?

−−−

−− −

Eva

cuati

on u

sually

Eva

cuati

on u

sually

dependent

upon

dependent

upon

risk

perc

epti

on

risk

perc

epti

on

RISK:RISK:

•Is very complex

Is very complex conceptconcept•Studied by many

Studied by many disciplinesdisciplines•Difficult to Difficult to communicate in ways

communicate in ways

that are convincing and

that are convincing and

lead to good decisions

lead to good decisions

Ris

k Pe

rcepti

on

Ris

k Pe

rcepti

on

AFFECTIVE

AFFECTIVE (Feelings, Emotions)

(Feelings, Emotions) SOCIAL

SOCIAL (Relationships,

(Relationships, Interactions)

Interactions) COGNITIVECOGNITIVE

(Knowledge, memory,

(Knowledge, memory,

reasoning) reasoning)

MIND MAP OF A SURGE ZONE RESIDENT

COGNITIVEKNOWLEDGE ABOUT: Hurricanes Forecasts Surge Elevation of Home Etc.

SOCIALRelationshipsInteractionsNetworks“What are they going to do?”

AFFECTIVEFEELINGS ABOUT: Hurricanes Forecasts Home safety Travel, Etc. RISK

EVACUATE?

Sees world as safe or scarySelf efficacySurge is like a flood

World ViewPersonality TraitsMental Models

GO?

UN

DER

STA

ND

UN

DER

STA

ND

th

e H

aza

rdth

e H

aza

rd

Risk messages need to be

Risk messages need to be

vivid with examples and

vivid with examples and

illustrationsillustrationsOne cubic yard of sea water

One cubic yard of sea water

= 1728 pounds

= 1728 poundsHard to visualize the power

Hard to visualize the power

of surgeof surge

One foot can sweep car off

One foot can sweep car off

roadroadDifficult to stand upright in

Difficult to stand upright in

6”6”

Check out the new surge

Check out the new surge

website at NHC

website at NHChttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssu

rge/ssurge_resources.shtml

Unders

tand

Unders

tand

Vuln

era

bili

ty

Vuln

era

bili

ty Lots of evidence that

Lots of evidence that

coastal residents do not

coastal residents do not

understand their

understand their vulnerability to surge

vulnerability to surge

and flooding

and flooding

Coastal Georgia Hurricane Behavioral StudyUSACE and FEMA thru Dewberry. Betty Morrow, SocResearch Miami and Hugh Gladwin, Institute for Public Opinion Research

Comparison of Respondents’ Home Elevation with Their Answer to “How likely do you think it is that your home would ever be

flooded as a result of a hurricane or storm?”

Of those in Cat 1 zone, about one third are each of these:

•Very concerned

•Somewhat concerned

•Not very concerned

Hampton Road VA Evacuation Study. 2010. Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and USACE

Concern vs. Vulnerability

Lazo, Jeff. November 2010 Survey of Hurricane Vulnerable Public – North Carolina to Texas

Risk Perception vs. Surge Exposure

UN

DER

STA

ND

UN

DER

STA

ND

Vuln

era

bili

ty

Vuln

era

bili

ty

Risk messages need to

Risk messages need to

be personal and

be personal and dramaticdramatic

Inundation maps

Inundation mapsIllustrations of various

Illustrations of various

depths of water

depths of waterPhotos of familiar sites

Photos of familiar sites

under water

under water

Coastal Inundation ToolkitCoastal Inundation Toolkit

CanVis Visualization Software

NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource

www.csc.noaa.gov/inundation

Per

sona

lize

Per

sona

lize

The

Mes

sage

The

Mes

sage

Pinellas County Florida Flyer

UN

DER

STA

ND

UN

DER

STA

ND

th

e F

ore

cast

the F

ore

cast

Forecast information

Forecast information

presented in

presented in understandable ways

understandable ways Difficult to take seriously

Difficult to take seriously

event which probably

event which probably

won’t happen

won’t happen1 in 10 has stronger

1 in 10 has stronger impact than 10%

impact than 10%Understandable text

Understandable textGraphicsGraphics

BELI

EV

E t

he

BELI

EV

E t

he

Fore

cast

Fore

cast

Trust is important in risk

Trust is important in risk

communication

communication~90% trust their local TV*

~90% trust their local TV*

Next most important source

Next most important source

is national TV, followed by

is national TV, followed by

social networks**

social networks**National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

has high approval rating

has high approval rating

Local emergency manager?

Local emergency manager?

Local officials?

Local officials?

*Hurricane Charley Behavioral Analysis. 2005. US Army Corps of Engineers** Hurricane Rita Behavioral Survey. 2007. Peacock et al.

FEEL

the R

isk

FEEL

the R

isk

Information not

Information not enough Need to

enough Need to arouse emotions

arouse emotionsLoved ones may be in

Loved ones may be in

dangerdanger

Need to protect them

Need to protect themScenariosScenariosVisual Images of People

Visual Images of People

People Make it RealPeople Make it Real

Peacock, W., B.H. Morrow and H. Gladwin. 1997. Hurricane Andrew: Ethnicity Gender and the Sociology of Disaster. London: Routledge.

Want

to L

eave

Want

to L

eave

Believe the forecast

Believe the forecastBelieve it applies to

Believe it applies to themthem

Not willing to accept the

Not willing to accept the

riskriskOthers are leaving

Others are leavingWorried enough to

Worried enough to overcome inertia

overcome inertia

AB

LE t

o L

eave

AB

LE t

o L

eave

Have necessary

Have necessary resources to evacuate:

resources to evacuate: Transportation

Transportation Place to goPlace to go Know how to get there

Know how to get there Cash for gas, food, etc.

Cash for gas, food, etc.

“Let’s Get Out of Here!"

PROS AND CONS OF EVACUATION FROM SURGE ZONES

+−

UNDERSTAND HazardBELIEVE ForecastFEEL UnsafeDon’t ACCEPT the RiskWANT to LeaveABLE to Leave

+++

+ +

Need to evoke strong FEELINGS to overcome the reasons NOT to leave

[email protected]

Acknowledgements:Acknowledgements:

Hugh GladwinHugh Gladwin

Jeff LazoJeff Lazo

Jamie RhomeJamie Rhome