Using SIMPPLLE to address questions: Has our management altered how a landscape is developing? How would a landscape have changed without our actions?

Using SIMPPLLE to address questions:Has our management altered how a landscape is developing?How would a landscape have changed without our actions?Can the managed landscape ever return to “historic conditions”

SIMPPLLE*Work was originally done in Feb 04, modifications made to showpotential to address cumulative impacts

Using FRAGSTATS with SIMPPLLE output to provide quantification of landscape patterns.

SIMPPLLE

Three metrics selected for comparison purposes only

Fortine drainage – Kootenai National Forest approximately 25,000 acres

SIMPPLLE

Current landscape is the result of significant level of clearcutharvest systems.

SIMPPLLE

How do Fragstats metrics of the current landscape compare towhat existed prior to harvests

What will be the metrics of a future landscape as a result ofthe harvesting and the continued application of fire suppression?

What are possible values of historic landscapes that includelevels of mountain pine beetle and fire processes?

SIMPPLLE

How different is the future landscape as described by themetrics from possible historic landscapes?

Would the metrics of a future landscape withoutthe harvesting (but with disturbance processes) be different?

Current size class convertedto a grid of 5 acre cells

Very largeMediumOpeningsLargepole

Future size classes from a50 year SIMPPLLE simulationwith harvest (5 acre cells)

Very largeMediumOpeningsLargepole

Preharvest size classes converted to 5 acre cells

Very largeMediumOpeningsLargepole

Preharvest size classes converted to 5 acre cells

Very largeMediumOpeningsLargepole

need to simulate forwardwithout harvest but withexpected natural processes

average mpb in lp - pre harvest conditions

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average mpb in lp - current conditions

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Simulated mpb activitythat would have occurredwithout harvesting

Simulated mpb activitythat has occurredwith harvesting.

srf average - preharvest conditions

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average -srf current landscape

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Simulated stand replacing firewith harvest.

Simulated stand replacing firewithout harvest – but with firesuppression. Modeling of firesuppression may be too effective so ---

srf average - preharvest conditions

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average -srf current landscape

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STAND-REPLACING-FIRE

LIGHT-SEVERITY-FIRE

MIXED-SEVERITY-FIRE

Simulation of fire without suppression showing impactof mpb activity without harvest on the fire processes

Three historic size classesfrom SIMPPLLE simulations

Very largeMediumOpeningsLargepole

Created historic starting with preharvest conditions

FRAGSTATS LANDSCAPE METRIC - SHAPE_RA

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The “shape range” metric for the entire landscape of thecurrent and future fall well below that of any simulated historic landscape. The trend from the current to the future is for a continued decrease.

SIMPPLLE

Would need to addwhat the current anda future would be withoutthe past harvest

With harvest

FRAGSTATS CLASS METRICS - OPENINGS SHAPE_RA

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SIMPPLLE

The harvesting created a class metric for “shape range” greaterthan any simulated historic value. However the future trend is for a rapid decrease below any simulated historic value.

With harvestWould need to addwhat the current anda future would be withoutthe past harvest

FRAGSTATS CLASS METRICS - OPENINGS AREA_RA

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SIMPPLLE

The harvesting created a class metric for “area range” greaterthan any simulated historic value. However the future trend is for a rapid decrease below any simulated historic value.

With harvest

Would need to addwhat the current anda future would be withoutthe past harvest