Jacob Gross* 1 Tomoaki Muira 1 Jonathan Deenik 2 John Yanagida 1 Russell Yost 2 Using GIS to Evaluate Agricultural Land Suitability in Hawaii and the Impacts of Regional Climate Change 1 Dept. of Natural Resource and Environmental Management (NREM) 2 Dept. of Tropical Plant and Soil Sciences College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR)
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Using GIS to Evaluate Agricultural Land Suitability in Hawaii and the Impacts of Regional Climate Change
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Jacob Gross*1 Tomoaki Muira1 Jonathan Deenik2 John Yanagida1
Russell Yost2
Using GIS to Evaluate Agricultural Land Suitability in Hawaii and the Impacts of
Regional Climate Change
1Dept. of Natural Resource and Environmental Management (NREM)2Dept. of Tropical Plant and Soil SciencesCollege of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR)
PROJECT BACKGROUND
CTAHR Database & GeoportalCentralize data relevant to
natural resource management in Hawaii
Organize information to support land use evaluation and decision making
Provide user access to information
2
Users
CTAHRDatabase
Local Server Geoportal
PROBLEM & RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
How will climate change impact agricultural land suitability in Hawaii?
Sources Cited Giambelluca, Thomas W, Diaz, Henry F, & Luke, Mark SA. (2008).
Secular temperature changes in Hawai‘i. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(12).
Lauer, Axel, Zhang, Chunxi, Elison-Timm, Oliver, Wang, Yuqing, & Hamilton, Kevin. (2013). Downscaling of Climate Change in the Hawaii Region Using CMIP5 Results: On the Choice of the Forcing Fields*. Journal of Climate, 26(24).
Melrose, J, & Delparte, D. (2012). Hawai'i County Food Self-Sufficiency Baseline 2012 (G. a. E. S. Department, Trans.): University of Hawai'i at Hilo.
Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, Jarvis, Andy, & Laderach, Peter. (2013). Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 170, 67-78.
Timm, Oliver, & Diaz, Henry F. (2009). Synoptic-statistical approach to regional downscaling of IPCC twenty-first-century climate projections: seasonal rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of Climate, 22(16).
Timm, Oliver, Takahashi, Mami, Giambelluca, Thomas W, & Diaz, Henry F. (2013). On the relation between large scale circulation ‐pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent trends and future changes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(10), 4129-4141.
High Spatial Variability• Topography• Substrate Age• Climate
Natural EnvironmentalConditions
HAWAII CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS (Late 21st Century)
Temperature Increasing Temperatures (Lauer et al. 2013)
RCP4.5 (1.2 ˚- 2.9˚ C) RCP8.5 (2.3 ˚- 4.9˚ C)
Stronger warming at higher elevations (Giambelluca et al. 2008)
Rainfall Increase in overall rainfall (~5%) (Timm and Diaz 2009) Increased drought in drier areas (Timm et al. 2013) ↑summer precipitation ↓winter precipitation (Timm and Diaz 2009) Increased risk of widespread heavy rain events is low (Timm et al. 2013) *High uncertainty in rainfall estimates (Lauer et al. 2013)
Agricultural Suitability Classification in Hawaii1963-1972 LSB Hawaii Land Study Bureau
(University of Hawaii)
1957-1972 LCC Land Capability Classification – (USDA) 1977 ALISH Agricultural Lands of Importance to the State of
Hawaii – (USDA, Hawaii State Board of Agriculture)1978-1986 LESA Hawaii Land Evaluation and Site Assessment
(HI LESA Commission)
1986-2007 HNRIS Hawaii Natural Resources Information System – (CTAHR)