Using GIS in Foreclosure Analysis: A Look at Forsyth County, NC NC Department of Revenue 2011 Advanced Seminar Greensboro, NC September 14, 2011 Presented by: Jason Clodfelter, CMS, GISP Carlo Frate, CMS, GISP Forsyth County Tax Administration GIS/Mapping Division
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Using GIS in Foreclosure Analysis: A Look at Forsyth County, NC
Using GIS in Foreclosure Analysis: A Look at Forsyth County, NC. Presented by: Jason Clodfelter, CMS, GISP Carlo Frate, CMS, GISP Forsyth County Tax Administration GIS/Mapping Division. NC Department of Revenue 2011 Advanced Seminar Greensboro, NC September 14, 2011. Discussion Items. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Using GIS in Foreclosure Analysis: A Look at Forsyth County, NC
NC Department of Revenue2011 Advanced SeminarGreensboro, NCSeptember 14, 2011
Presented by:
Jason Clodfelter, CMS, GISPCarlo Frate, CMS, GISP
Forsyth County Tax AdministrationGIS/Mapping Division
Discussion Items
Foreclosure terminology
Foreclosure process
Tax office analysis
Changes to office procedures
Triad sets record for foreclosure filings in 2010
By: Richard Craver, Journal Reporter
Published: January 7, 2011
North Carolina and most of the Triad set a record for foreclosure filings in 2010, a state agency reported Thursday.
There were 67,854 foreclosures in North Carolina in 2010, an increase of 7 percent over 2009. Forsyth County had a record 2,396 foreclosure filings last year, up 6 percent, according to the N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts…
Of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina, just two — Alleghany and Rockingham — did not set a record in 2010.
Although Forsyth has seen a 29 percent increase in foreclosure filings since 2006, some counties in Northwest N.C. have had filings that at least doubled. For example, filings have risen in Watauga County from 107 in 2006 to 356 in 2010, along with going from 75 in 2006 to 160 in 2010 in Ashe County…
"North Carolina will have more than a 30 percent increase in completed foreclosures in 2010 compared with 2009," Blomquist said. "I don't believe foreclosures are necessarily going to get a lot worse in 2011, but they're not likely to get much better."
Foreclosure TerminologySource of Mass Confusion
Foreclosure TerminologySource of Mass Confusion
Foreclosure – is a legal process Multiple steps Multiple variables Variety of outcomes
Notice of Hearing on Foreclosure of Deed of Trust Civil papers filed with Clerk of Court that begin the foreclosure
process Delivered or posted by the Sheriff's department Often referred to as Foreclosure Filing, Foreclosure Start,
Foreclosure Notice or Sheriff’s Notice (terms used by the media)
Notice of Foreclosure Legal document filed after completion of a foreclosure Mandated by NC GS 45-38 Filed with the Register of Deeds Sometimes referred to as a Completed Foreclosure
Foreclosure TerminologySource of Mass Confusion
Foreclosure Process
Banks/CreditUnions
Savings & Loans
MortgageCompanies
GovernmentEntities
Home Owners Associations
Owner Financing
Past Due PaymentsAre Paid Up
Deed In LieuOf Foreclosure
Distressed Sale
Short Sale
Foreclosure Occurs
File Notice of Hearing on Foreclosure of Deed of Trust
ForeclosureRelatedActivities
Bankruptcy
OK, So Why Do We Care?Reality
The Tax office is being asked, “What are you doing about all of these foreclosures?”
In order to be able to answer this, we must: Know where the foreclosures are Be able to track those properties Follow subsequent sales of those properties Determine what, if any, affect the foreclosures have on
the market area (neighborhoods) IAAO Standard on Verification and Adjustment of Sales:
Sales in which a financial institution is the seller typically should be considered as potentially valid for model calibration and ratio studies if they comprise more than 20% of sales in a specific market area.
Housing department - participation in the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)
Federal grant money used to help purchase and rehab foreclosed properties
NSP requires that the grant money be focused on census tracts most affected by foreclosures
Can use foreclosure data to target population segments to educate about home ownership and the services offered by Housing
Others
Public Safety/Crime Prevention Code Enforcement
OK, So Why Do We Care?Reality
Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts, Forsyth County Housing Department, Forsyth County Register of Deeds, Forsyth County Tax Administration
Forsyth County Foreclosure Data: 2007-2010
1,222
1,9812,221 2,252
2,396
844992
819
851
1,085
1,374 1,456
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
Notices of Hearing on Foreclosure Notices of Foreclosure (GS45-38)
Parcels Affected
Completed Foreclosures as Percentage of Foreclosure Starts: 2007-2010
42.60%44.66%
36.37%
51.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Select Neighborhoods SummarySouthwestern Forsyth County
All sales and foreclosure numbers are for 2007 - 2010
NeighborhoodNumber of
Parcels
Median Assessed
Value
Number of Foreclosures
Total SalesForeclosure Percentage
Qualified Sale Percentage
Median Year Built
Sequoia Place 515 154,700$ 11 136 8.1% 61.8% 1988
Springfield Farms 329 159,700$ 6 116 5.2% 60.3% 1996
Rollingreen Village 535 157,100$ 3 116 2.6% 42.2% 1971
Number of Qualified Sales
2022 18
2424
121618
23
11
4
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010
Sequoia Place Springfield Farms Rollingreen Village
General trends in Forsyth County, 2007-2010 Analysis so far has shown:
Foreclosure-related sales have sharply increased. Qualified sales have sharply decreased. Few countywide trends Other variables influence changes in home prices
General economic conditions Existing housing stock / Supply & Demand
Neighborhood conditions determine extent of effects on home prices by foreclosures
Age of homes Location Price point
Future considerations: Expand study period into past and future Examine subsequent sales of foreclosed properties. Consider neighborhood-by-neighborhood analysis to determine effect
of foreclosures on property values Identify variables to control for (effect of foreclosures vs. effect of
economic downturn) Change workflow processes for classifying and tracking foreclosure-
related sales
Changes to Office Procedures
Additional Steps to Capture & Track Foreclosures and Foreclosure Related Sales
Changes to Office Procedures
Receive list of Notices of Foreclosure on Deed of Trust (by address) served by Sheriff’s department – add a note to the record receiving notice
Receive list of Notices of Foreclosure, as identified by the Housing Department, on a monthly basis
Match that info up with data in our Tax system to identify records foreclosed on
Code those records to identify them as “Foreclosures”
Changes to Office Procedures
Identify the records with subsequent sales (from financial institutions) after foreclosure and code them as such
These new notes and codes allow us to better track, query and run ratios on sales relating to foreclosures
Effect of Foreclosure Related Sales
Qualified & Post
Foreclosure Bank Sales
Qualified Sales Only
Post Foreclosure Bank Sales
Only
Number of Sales
10,528 9,452 1,076
Median Assessment Ratio
1.05 1.03 1.72
COD 29% 22% 43%
For Calendar Years 2009, 2010 and 2011 (through August 26)
Forsyth County Housing Department Using GIS to Identify Home Foreclosures
A Positive Side-Effect of Foreclosures
A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)
The NSP is intended to reduce blight, rehabilitate abandoned and foreclosed properties, provide affordable housing for buyers and renters and stimulate the local real estate market.
Funds are allocated by a formula based on the number of foreclosures and vacancies in the 20% of US neighborhoods (Census Tracts) with the highest rates of homes financed by a subprime mortgage, are delinquent or are in foreclosure.
These funds are highly targeted to communities with the most severe neighborhood problems associated with the foreclosure crisis.
Source: US Department of Housing & Urban Development, Community Planning & Development Office
A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)
NSP funds may be used for activities such as:
Establishing financing mechanisms for purchase and redevelopment of foreclosed homes and residential properties
Purchasing and rehabilitating homes and residential properties abandoned or foreclosed
Establishing land banks for foreclosed homes Demolish blighted structures Redevelop demolished or vacant properties
Source: US Department of Housing & Urban Development, Community Planning & Development Office
Requirements of program
30% of funds must be used to assist families at or below 80% of Median Household Income
Recipients getting assistance for rental units must be at or below 50% of Median Household Income
Other first-time home buyers can be at 120% of Median Household Income and still receive assistance
A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)
A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)
Administered locally by the Forsyth County Housing Department
Creating database of foreclosed properties using Notices of Foreclosure
Doing simple geo-coding using addresses and street centerlines to locate foreclosures
Collaboration with the Tax office in terms of data sharing
Assistance Provided to Date
Received $3.625 million through the NSP1 program
Distributed $3,436,343.44 in the form of down payment assistance, rehab assistance and the purchase of foreclosed properties in Forsyth County
This includes assistance to 44 first-time home buyers
Approximately 160 new affordable housing units have been made available
A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)