Using (Free!) AppAnnie Data to Optimize Your Next Game Eric Benjamin Seufert Heracles
Jan 16, 2017
Using (Free!) AppAnnie Data to Optimize Your Next
GameEric Benjamin Seufert
Heracles
WHO AM I?
Partner,Heracles
Owner,Mobile Dev Memo
Author,Freemium Economics
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
• MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
US MOBILE AD SPEND:
2015: $32BN2016: $44BN2017: $53BN2018: $61BN2019: $69BN2020: $77BN
• MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY WELL OR 2) HAVE MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
• MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY WELL OR HAS MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;
• MAKING GAMES IS EXPENSIVE. IF YOU DEVELOP & RELEASE THE WRONG GAME, MASSIVE LOSS.
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL? 5. WILL THEY RESPOND TO THIS GAME’S ADS?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
THE SOONER YOU CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THE LESS RISK YOU BEAR!
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
CONCEPT STAGE
SOFT LAUNCH
GLOBAL LAUNCH
$ $$ $$$
VETTING A GAME: THREE OPTIONS
RISK / SUNK DEVELOPMENT COSTS
WHAT DOES AN OPPORTUNITY LOOK LIKE?
TOP
GRO
SSIN
G CH
ART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTO
P GR
OSS
ING
CHAR
T
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
TOP
GRO
SSIN
G CH
ART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTO
P GR
OSS
ING
CHAR
T
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITIONLarge developer, usually operating big portfolio
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
TOP
GRO
SSIN
G CH
ART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTO
P GR
OSS
ING
CHAR
T
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Developer successfully scaling viable game
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
TOP
GRO
SSIN
G CH
ART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTO
P GR
OSS
ING
CHAR
T
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Small developer with great game
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Developer successfully scaling viable game
TOP
GRO
SSIN
G CH
ART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTO
P GR
OSS
ING
CHAR
T
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITIONDeveloper state over time. What is max
potential?
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Developer successfully scaling viable game
Small developer with great game
FILLING IN THE MATRIXCould fill it in by hand based on intuition...
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
FILLING IN THE MATRIXCould fill it in by hand based on intuition...
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
FILLING IN THE MATRIX...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.
TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:
FILLING IN THE MATRIX...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.
TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are
popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking for games with long lifetimes;
FILLING IN THE MATRIX...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.
TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are
popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking for games with long lifetimes;
• Very likely to focus on one point in time, when in reality we want to see the app’s trend in grossing (viability = ability to reinvest into marketing).
FILLING IN THE MATRIX...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.
A BETTER APPROACH
A BETTER APPROACH
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
A BETTER APPROACH
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
A BETTER APPROACH
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN
AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10 GROSSING!);
A BETTER APPROACH
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN
AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10 GROSSING!);3.ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN GROSSING CHART.
A BETTER APPROACH
CAN BE TAKEN FROM FREE APP ANNIE ACCOUNT (EITHER WRITE A SCRIPT OR HIRE AN INTERN):• 70mb JSON file, 365 days of Top 100 charts;• Number of apps in Top 100 Grossing (US / iPhone) in
past 365 days: 355• Number of excluded developers: 56• Apps classified as representing “opportunities”: 33
THE DATA
SCORING APPROACH:• Use app descriptions to classify M / F (-10 to 10);• Use app icons and screenshots to classify mass / niche
appeal;
THE DATA
FILLING IN THE MATRIXHeat map based on results of analysis
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
Darkness (color) = grossing trajectory (simple linear regression of grossing values, controlling for # of rankings and r2);
Size = density of titles.
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
FILLING IN THE MATRIXHeat map based on results of analysis
WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST
Rank Position(US / iPhone)Top GrossingLast 365 Days
PEAK GAMES• No games in the Top 20;• 6-person UA team (as per LinkedIn);
Didn’t get into Grossing position from brute-force marketing but rather appeal + viable unit economics
WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST
IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.
IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:• Click ads;
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.
IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:• Click ads;• Invite friends;
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.
IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:• Click ads;• Invite friends;• Spend money.
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.
UP AND TO THE RIGHT
UP AND TO THE RIGHT
UP AND TO THE RIGHT
CAUTIONARY TALES
BIG CELEBRITY CO-BRAND
KIDS’ SHOW IP LICENSE
MegaBigDeveloperCo’s New Brand Launch
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?
1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?
1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITYa) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting?
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?
1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITYa) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting?
2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?
1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITYa) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting?
2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENTa) Does our game concept capably reach that
audience? Will they click on ads?
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
“If you know YOUR AUDIENCE and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred LAUNCHES. If you know yourself but not YOUR AUDIENCE, for every RANK gained you will also suffer CPI > LTV. If you know neither YOUR AUDIENCE nor yourself, you will LOSE MONEY in every LAUNCH.”