Using a Historic Change Analysis to Design Strategic ... processes, primarily tidally driven, that form and maintain tidal channel geometry ... and from historic (left) to current

Charles “Si” SimenstadWetland Ecosystem TeamSchool of Aquatic and Fishery SciencesUniversity of WashingtonOn behalf of the Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project (PSNERP) teams

Restore America’s Estuaries 2010Restoring and Protecting Puget Sound’s Nearshore Ecosystems; Tuesday, November 16

Using a Historic Change Analysis to Design Strategic Restoration/Preservation of Nearshore Ecosystems in Puget Sound

Message

• Historic change in nearshore ecosystem processes that sustain ecosystem functions, goods and services can be inferred from change in ecosystem structure

• Strategic planning of restoration and preservation can be informed by change analysis; where and what restoration/protection is needed cannot be arbitrary, i.e., more strategic by attending to types and scales of process change

• Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project’s (PSNERP) Change Analysis forms foundational framework and geodatabase to identify and set priorities for nearshore restoration/protection to maximize benefit

Content

1. Role and approach of PSNERP Change Analysis in restoration/preservation planning

2. Synopsis of change in Puget Sound nearshore ecosystems

3. Implications for delivery of ecosystem functions, goods and services

4. Lessons learned

PSNERP NST: Change Analysis Restoration and Protection Portfolios

Future Risk Assessment:How might future growth and development affect the nearshore?Strategic Needs

Assessment: Where are the most problematic changes and why?

Restoration and Protection Portfolios:What actions should we take and where?

Management Measures: What can we do to protectand restore the nearshore?

Change Analysis: How have nearshore ecosystems changed?

Science Guidance:restoration principles from literature and practice?

So, what is wrong with Puget Sound’s nearshore ecosystems?

Challenges: impediments to nearshore ecosystem restoration?

Extensively industrialized Puyallup River delta

• adjacent upland development• legacy contaminants• point and non-point contaminant discharge• freshwater flow regulation and diversion• transportation and other public infrastructure

1907 Ashel Curtis photograph of Everett, Washington from Rucker Hill

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISObjective Infer magnitude and significance of impairment in nearshore

ecosystem processes from historic changes in physical structure of nearshore environment consistent with conceptual model ofrelationships among ecosystem processes, structure and function.

Approach Assess change in types and magnitude of historic changes in natural nearshore ecosystems over last ~125-150 yr (~1850-1880 to 2000-2006), not as target for restoration but as guidance

Scope and Focus• comprehensive, Sound-wide along ~4,000 km shoreline• spatially explicit• changes in nearshore ecosystem processes (“process-based”• landscape/ecosystem organization

CONCEPTUAL BASIS - PSNERP

ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE

ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES

ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment(MA 2003,2005; de Groot et al. 2002, etc.)• Supporting

fish and wildlife habitat biodiversity

• Provisioning food production food web sources coastal sediment supply

• Regulating wave attenuation sediment retention flooding mediation gas regulation

• Cultural recreation aesthetics science and education

Regional• weather• tectonic events• tidal flooding• wave energy

Local• hydrology (tidal and current movement)• freshwater inflow• sediment erosion & accretion• particle transport

Finite• biogeochemical processing/cycling• primary production• food web transfer and connectedness• decomposition• reproduction• ecological interactions• behavior

+ components

Nearshore Ecosystem ProcessesExamples of ‘local’ ecosystem processes:• Sediment Supply and Transport: supply (from bluff, stream and marine

sources) and transport of sediments and other matter by water and wind

• Beach Erosion and Accretion: erosion and deposition (accretion) of sediments and mineral particulate material by water, wind and other forces

• Tidal Hydrology: localized tidal movements, differing from regional tidal regime mostly in tidal freshwater and estuarine ecosystems

• Localized Wind and Wave Inputs to the Shoreline: exposure to wind-driven waves

• Distributary Channel Migration: combined freshwater and tidal flow influences on distributary channel form and location

• Tidal Channel Formation and Maintenance: geomorphic processes, primarily tidally driven, that form and maintain tidal channel geometry

• Freshwater Input: freshwater inflow from surface (streamflow) and groundwater (seepage) and mixing with seawater

• Detritus Recruitment and Retention: import and deposition of particulate (dead) organic matter

• Exchange of Aquatic Organisms: organism transport and movement

• Solar Radiation: exposure to solar radiation and resulting effects (e.g., radiant heat)

PSNERP Change Analysis: Shoreforms

Delta Beaches Rocky Coast

RIVERDELTA

POCKET BEACH

Bluff faceBerm/Backshore

BeachfaceLow tide terrace

Berm/BackshoreBeachface

Low-tide terrace

Berm/BackshoreBeachface

Low tide terraceAlluvial Floodplain(surge plain)High tide flatLow tide flat

BARRIERBEACH

BLUFF

BARRIERBEACH

Berm/BackshoreBeachface

Low tide terrace

ROCKYPLATFORM

CliffPlatform

Embayments

Stream deltaVegetated flat

ChannelsTidal flat

Tidal delta

BARRIERESTUARY

BedrockUpland

CoastalWatersheds

Alluvial RiverValley

Vegetated FlatsTidal flat

Tidal deltaChannels

BARRIERLAGOON

Typical Puget Sound coastal landforms (“shoreforms”) (from Shipman et al. 2008)

NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM PROCESSESRocky Shores

Coastal Bluffs

Barrier Beach

River Delta

Pocket Beach

Stream Delta

Stream-mouth Estuary

Lagoon

Lagoon

Longshore transport

rocky shores

coastal bluffs

barrier beach

river delta

pocket beach

stream delta

-streammouth estuary

lagoon

lagoon

DZ DZL-R

L-R

R-L

L-R

Nearshore Ecosystem Process Domains

Drift cell processes• DZ: Divergence Zone sediment delivery• R-L: Right to Left sediment transport• L-R: Left and Right sediment transport• CZ: Convergence Zone sediment accretion/sink• NAP: No Appreciable Drift

Delta processes• EU: euryhaline unvegetated• EM: estuarine mixing• OT: oligohaline transition• FT: freshwater tidal

CZ

euryhaline unvegetated

estuarine mixing

oligohaline transition

freshwater tidal

• sediment supply and transport

• beach erosion and accretion

• freshwater inflow• tidal hydrology

• distributary channel migration

• tidal channel formation and maintenance

• localized wind and wave inputs

to shoreline

R-L

NAP

PSNERP Change Analysis: Geospatial

Whidbey Basin example of hierarchical organization in PSNERP geographic scale units (GSU) for shoreline process units (SPU; left) and delta process units (DPU), with littoral drift cells (Drift Cell Type) components. Cross-hatching indicates overlap in SPU (in Divergence Zone and where No Appreciable Drift); stippling indicates where SPU and DPU overlap.

Shoreline Process Units Delta Process Units

PSNERP Change Categories (Tiers)

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISResults Categories & Display

For each of the four change categories (tiers), we quantify nearshore ecosystem change and rank EFG&S impairment of nearshore ecosystem processes at four scales:

1.Comprehensive, Puget Sound-wide

2.Puget Sound (PSNERP-defined) sub-basins

3.Within process units4.Among attributes of

change within process units

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISWhidbey Sub-basin example of transitions in shoreform type (Tier 1) to Artificial shoreform (top) and from historic (left) to current (right) of different natural shoreforms (bottom). HISTORIC CURRENT

Puget Sound-wide ChangeShoreform Transitions (Tier 1)

~76%5091 shoreform segments; 4300 unchanged (85.8%)

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISHistoric Shoreform Change Sound-Wide

*

***

*

*

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSIS

Whidbey Sub-Basin segment illustrating examples of shoreline alterations (Tier 2) changes; other features analyzed in this tier included nearshore fill, nearshore railroads (active and abandoned), and percent change in wetland classes.

20

Puget Sound-wide ChangeShoreline Alterations (Tier 2)

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISCumulative Shoreline Alterations

Cumulative stressors can be identified as spatially-explicit “hot spots” of impairment

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISMultivariate Analysis of Shoreline Alterations

Groups of similarly changed PU inform distribution and extent of restoration or protection, and management measure(s), required to address strategic need

Scaling Observed Changes to Impairment* of Ecosystem Functions,

Goods & Services (EFG&S)

Shoreform Transition (Tier 1)Shoreforms are ranked by their relative ability to provide,

regulate, support or enhance ecosystem functions, goods and services

Shoreline Alteration, Adjacent Upland and Watershed Area Change (Tiers 2, 3, & 4)

Attributes/modifications are ranked by the relative ability to reduce ecosystems ability to provide functions, goods, and services

* “impairment” is PSNERP estimate of how and where observed changes to nearshore conditions reduces the ability of an ecosystem to provide functions, goods, and services

Functions, goods and services that ecosystems provide to benefit human well-being and other life on Earth

Ecosystem Functions Goods and Services (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment/World Resources Institute)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Current State and Trends. Island Press, Washington, DC.World Resources Institute (WRI). 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, D.C.

Provisioning:– Food: crops; livestock; capture

fisheries; aquaculture; wild foods– Fiber: timber and other wood fiber;

other fibers– Biomass fuel– Water (quantity)– Genetic resources– Biochemicals, natural medicines

and pharmaceuticalsSupporting:

– Nutrient cycling– Soil formation*– Food web*– Photosynthesis*– Sediment supply*

Regulating:– Air quality regulation– Climate regulation: global; regional

and local– Water regulation (hydroperiod)– Water purification and waste

treatment– Disease regulation– Pest regulation– Pollination– Natural hazard regulation

Cultural:– Ethical value– Existence values– Recreation and ecotourism– Education

EFG&S Ranks for Shoreline Alterations (Tier 2)

The NST individually and assigned ranks for each of the shoreform transitions (Tier 1), shoreline attribute (Tier 2), or change in adjacent upland and total watershed area characteristics (tiers 3 and 4) in terms of how changes would affect the ability of the nearshore ecosystem to provide, regulate, support or enhance human well-being in each EFG&S.

RANKING OF EFG&S IMPAIRMENT BY NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE

PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISImpairment due to Shoreline Alteration (Tier 2)

MAPPING SOURCES OF NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM IMPAIRMENT

Loss of delta wetlands

Combined loss of Barrier Estuary and Closed

Lagoon/Marsh

Combined loss of Barrier Lagoon and Closed

Lagoon/Marsh Gain in Barrier Beach and Barrier

Estuary

Gain in Barrier Estuary and Barrier

Lagoon

Nearshore Roads, Abandoned Railroads, Wetland loss –

Oligohaline & Estuarine Mix

Gain of wetlands outweighs negative impact of roads

MAPPING SOURCES OF NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM IMPAIRMENT

Relatively more impervious surface and low intensity

development

Impervious surface

MAPPING SOURCES OF NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM IMPAIRMENT

Amount of impervious surface throughout watershed relative

to other areas of sub-basin

MAPPING SOURCES OF NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM IMPAIRMENT

Take-Home Message• Framework of geospatial characterization

of historic change in nearshore ecosystems that we can use to infer changes in ecosystem processes and functions, goods and services

• Informs spatially-explicit assessment of strategic restoration and protection needs

• Contributes to more sustainable restoration and protection planning and actions at all implementation scales

Thank You!For more information:Visit PSNERP website :

www.pugetsoundnearshore.org

Or, contact me directly:[email protected] 206 543 7185

With acknowledgements to all the PSNERP team and particularly NST colleagues!