Use of Simulation Modeling to Address Impact of Recurring Bad Weather Events, Bigger Vessels and Surge in Petroleum Trade

How Gulf Ports can Plan a Terminal to Address Impactof Recurring Bad Weather Events, Bigger Vessels andSurge in Petroleum Trade

Simulate it, if you can’t Predict it

• Description of the behavior of the port written in code

• Sequential movement of vessels, channel constraints, loading andunloading operations at each berth, tugs/pilots, tide etc

• Fluctuations in Cargo Being handled

• Berth Suspension due to– Bad Weather (wind, waves, lightning and swells)– Maintenance

RandomScheduled

• Variation in Vessel Size

3

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Bar

rels

per

Day

Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Import from Gulf PortsDecreasing since 2005

Source:

U.S.A Total

Gulf Coast Ports(market share almost remained same)

4

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Bar

rels

per

Day

Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Export from Gulf PortsIncreasing since 2001

U.S.A Total

Gulf Coast Ports(market share about to double)

Source:

5

Planning and Analysis Process

• Develop conceptual alternatives• Simulate each alternative• Use simulation output data to

compare overall cost– Capital cost– Operating cost including

demurrage• Refine and repeat• Recommend optimal layout for

each phase of development

6

Simulate Channel Deepening and PortDevelopment Plans

7

Petroleum Terminal Expansion Planning

Tank Farm 1

Product 1

Tank Farm 2

Refinery 1

Berth 1

SPM 1 SPM 2

Berth 2

8

Simulation Scenario 1

Tank Farm 1

Product 1

Tank Farm 2

Product 2

Refinery 1

Berth 1

SPM 1

Berth 2

SPM 2(Overhauled)

Power Plant 1

Refinery 2

9

Simulation Scenario 2

Tank Farm 1

Product 1

Tank Farm 2

Product 2 Product 4

Product 3

Refinery 1

Berth 1

SPM 1

Berth 2

SPM 2(Overhauled)

Power Plant 1

Refinery 2

10

Tank Farms

Petroleum Product Export TerminalSimulation Model Animation

11

Storage/Export :13

Storage/Export : 7

Storage/Export :15

Storage/Export : 7

Plan for Storage Space Required to HandleFuture Volume

12

Annual Cost of Building an Additional Berthvs. Demurrage Payment

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

mor

e

Tanker Waiting Time (Days)

Num

ber o

f Tan

kers

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Cum

ulat

ive

Freq

uenc

y (%

)

Number of Tankers Cumulative Frequency %

10% of Arriving Tankers Wait Morethan Permissible Limit, Resulting inDemurrage Payment

13

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

6% 17% 33% 33% 33% 67%% Increase in Daily Export

Addi

tiona

l Inf

rast

ruct

ure

Cap

ital C

ost (

US

$)

SubstationsDemurrageAdditional BerthsPumps+MeteringPipelinesTankage

Comparison of Capital Cost for Planned ThroughputIncrease

14

Why Simulate?

• Evaluate the capacity of the existing system and bottlenecks

• Determine the optimal Port infrastructure and dredging fundsto accommodate planned import/export

• Establish the need for waterside export facilities expansionregarding tanker service level and demurrage cost

• Initiate required capital projects ahead of demand

15

Thank You for Attending. Any Questions?

Vijay AgrawalPort Analyst & Plannerphone: 510.844.0576email: [email protected]