Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model Z.Klimont ([email protected]) Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop 13 th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey
14
Embed
Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model Z.Klimont ([email protected])[email protected] Center for.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model
Z.Klimont ([email protected]) Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop13th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey
• Projecting emissions, • Assessing mitigation potential,• Calculating control costs,• Assessing impacts and searching
for cost-optimal strategies considering constraints/targets
• In all elements listed above we benefit from your and other stakeholders’ work and collaborate with other EMEP centers
Emissions, costs
time
Baselineemissions
Mitigation potential
Controlcosts
PM (BC, OC)
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6
Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)
O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage: O3
Acidification
Eutrophication
Climate impacts: Long-term + + + +
Near-term forcing +/- - +/- + - +
Black carbon deposition +
The RAINS model(Regional Acidification Information and Simulation)
The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)
Central question for policy makersExample: Revision of European air quality policy
To what level should the emissions of air pollutants be reduced in the year 2020?
– Where will emissions and effects be in 2020 without further policies?
– What reductions are technically feasible?– How much do they cost? – optimal/non-optimal– Who (which countries) pays?– How much are they willing to pay?– Who benefits?– Is it enough?– Is it fair?
Scope for further environmental improvements in the UNECE area: 4(6) effects
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
YOLLs O3 deaths Acidification,forest area
Acidification,AAE all
ecosystems
Eutrophication,ecosystems
area
Eutrophication,AAE all
ecosystems
Imp
act
ind
icato
r in
20
20
rela
tive t
o 2
00
0
PRIMES MTFR Scope for measures National MTFR Scope for measures
Closing the gap
Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000
Scope
Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):
• Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD)– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/tsap