U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: January 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013

Below-average monthly gains mask a broadening recovery

U.S. employment situation: January 2013 Release date: February 7, 2014

What were January’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

OVERVIEW

• The U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, representing below-average growth.

• The unemployment rate dropped by 10 basis points to a recovery low of 6.6 percent.

• Total non-farm employment is at 99.4 percent of its previous peak figure.

• 90.1 of the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession have been recovered.

• Construction was the subsector with the highest monthly growth, while PBS led year-on-year gains.

• Tech remains the dominant industry for job growth, with energy at national levels.

• Unemployment for high school and college graduates is below the official rate of 6.6 percent.

• Although wobbling, initial claims remain near recovery lows and below the 400,000-claim threshold for an expanding economy.

• Bucking the trend seen in previous months, office-using industries’ share of gains up to 30.0 percent in January.

• Consumer confidence is up at 80.7 points on the heels of a diversifying recovery.

• Geographically, growth is being seen increasingly outside of Texas and tech hubs.

• Total unemployment remains above historic norms at 12.7 percent.

• Labor force participation for high school and college graduates, although up, is still suppressed.

• The public sector witnessed its largest monthly contraction in employment (-29,000 jobs) since late 2012.

• Office-using growth continues to be subdued, with flat information payrolls and a 2,000-job contraction in financial activities.

• Temporary help services continues to grow, almost at 2.8 million jobs.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

January posts a below-average monthly gain of 113,000 jobs; revisions show more stability in 2013

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120,0

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360,0

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Oct-1

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3

OVERVIEW

Revisions bring three-month employment growth to 462,000 jobs, as unemployment declines to 6.6 percent

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Unem

ploym

ent r

ate (%

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One-

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chan

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hous

ands

)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

75 months into the cycle, total employment is now less than 0.6 percent below prior peak levels

Reco

vere

d job

s (%

)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

90.1 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 900,000 jobs below pre-recession peak


6

OVERVIEW

Office-using jobs lost during recession…

Office-using jobs gained during recovery…

All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much more tech- and management-centered


7

OVERVIEW

-29.0 -12.9

-6.0 -2.0

0.0 1.5

4.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 8.1

9.9 13.9 15.0

21.0 24.0

36.0 48.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

GovernmentRetail trade

Education and health servicesFinancial activities

InformationHealth care and social assistance

Other servicesNondurable goods

Motor vehicles and partsMining and logging

Temporary help servicesTransportation and warehousing

Wholesale tradeDurable goodsManufacturing

Leisure and hospitalityProfessional and business services

Construction

1-month net change (thousands)

Construction, PBS, leisure and hospitality and manufacturing were the drivers of January’s growth…


8

OVERVIEW

Construction PBS

Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing

Four subsectors were responsible for all net new jobs.

What caused construction’s economy-leading gains in January? Residential building.

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Figures in thousands SECTOR FOCUS

13.2

12.9

10.1

8.3 3.6

64.9

Residential building Non-residential specialty contractorsHeavy and civil engineering Non-residential buildingResidential specialty contractors All other jobs

Construction accounted for 42.6 percent of growth in January… …but represents only 4.3 percent of employment nationally

Non-residential specialty contractors Residential specialty contractorsHeavy and civil engineering Non-residential buildingResidential building All other jobs

i Residential building represented to 11.7 percent of job growth in January… i …but is in fact the smallest component

of construction, with 646,000 workers.

9

-53.0 6.0 9.0

26.0 36.0 46.8

65.0 81.2 84.0 93.0 95.5

179.0 228.7

284.6 306.0 316.0

433.0 656.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

GovernmentInformation

Nondurable goodsOther services

Mining and loggingMotor vehicles and parts

Financial activitiesTransportation and warehousing

Durable goodsManufacturing

Wholesale tradeConstruction

Temporary help servicesHealth care and social assistance

Education and health servicesRetail trade

Leisure and hospitalityProfessional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS Leisure and hospitalityRetail trade Education and healthManufacturing Financial activitiesAll other jobs

…although PBS, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and education and health dominated year-on-year gains


10

OVERVIEW

Core subsectors added 83.5 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.

Goods-producing employment jumps after slight contraction in December; service-providing slows

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Goods-producing Service-providing


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BRIGHT SPOT

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Both high school and college graduate unemployment below the national average

3.2%

6.5%


12

BRIGHT SPOT

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab15.htm

Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities growing, but at national rates of growth

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2013.

13

12-m

onth

% ch

ange

OVERVIEW

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth


14

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims hovering between 330,000 and 350,000 since late 2013

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Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Initial claims 4-week moving average

4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor

15

BRIGHT SPOT

While the recovery is broadening, slightly stronger growth boosted office-using industries’ share of gains


16

BRIGHT SPOT

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumer confidence indexUnemployment rate

In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer confidence index increased to 80.7 points in January

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

17

BRIGHT SPOT

Growth is registering in geographies outside of Texas and tech hubs


18

Silicon Valley 3.4%

BRIGHT SPOT

Phoenix 2.5% Atlanta

2.5%

Charlotte 2.6%

Houston 3.0%

Austin 2.8%

Seattle 2.6%

Although total unemployment fell by 60 basis points to 12.7 percent, it remains above average

6%

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16%

18%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


19

CHALLENGE

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab15.htm

73

74

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79

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

58

59

60

61

62

63College graduatesHigh school grads no college

Labor force participation across educational attainment increases, but still suppressed

Colle

ge gr

adua

tes

High school graduates


20

CHALLENGE

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Public sector witnesses largest contraction since late 2012, while private sector growth below historic norms

Private sector hiring up 4.5 million since December 2011

Public sector shed 112,000 workers since November 2011


21

CHALLENGE

Information gains no jobs in January, while financial activities contracts by 2,000

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In January 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs.


22

CHALLENGE

0.0%

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0

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Unem

ploym

ent r

ate

Onlin

e help

wan

ted ad

s

New help wanted adsUnemployment rate

Online help wanted ads fall by 56,800 in January despite a decrease in unemployment

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board

23

CHALLENGE

A slight slowdown in monthly growth keeps temporary help services just under 2.8 million jobs

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Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary employment (ths)


24

CHALLENGE

Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country


Cleveland -0.6%

CHALLENGE

Milwaukee 0.6%

New Jersey 0.3%

St. Louis 0.6%

Detroit 0.8%

25

©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: January 2014

Economy & Finance

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month net change

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employment situation

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