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E PI BR IE FI NG PA PE RE C O N O M I C P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E D E C E M B E R 1 0 , 2 0 1 4 B R I E F I N G P A P E R # 3 8 5

CHINA TRADE,

OUTSOURCING AND JOBSGrowing U.S. trade deficit with China cost 3.2 million

jobs between 2001 and 2013, with job losses inevery state

B Y R O B E R T E . S C O T T A N D W I L L K I M B A L L

ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE 1333 H STREET, NW SUITE 300, EAST TOWER WASHINGTON, DC 20005 202.775.8810 WWW.EPI.ORG

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T A B L E 1

U.S.-China goods trade and job displacement, 20012013

Change ($billions)Percentchange

2001 2008 2013 20012013 20082013 20012013

U.S. goods trade with China ($ billions, nominal)

U.S. domestic exports* $18.0 $67.2 $114.0 $96.1 $46.9 534.9%

U.S. imports forconsumption

$102.1 $337.5 $438.2 $336.1 $100.7 329.3%

U.S. trade balance -$84.1 -$270.3 -$324.2 -$240.1 -$53.8 285.4%

Average annual changein the trade balance

-$21.8 -$10.8 11.9%

Change (thousands ofjobs)

Percentchange

U.S. trade-related jobs supported and displaced (thousands of jobs)

U.S. domesticexportsjobs supported

161.4 499.2 767.5 606.2 268.4 375.6%

U.S. imports forconsumptionjobsdisplaced

1,127.7 3,620.1 4,890.9 3,763.3 1,270.8 333.7%

U.S. trade deficitnet jobsdisplaced

966.3 3,121.0 4,123.4 3,157.1 1,002.4 326.7%

Average annual changein net jobs displaced

287.0 200.5 12.9%

*Domestic exports are goods produced in the United States and exclude foreign exports (re-exports), i.e., goods produced in othercountries and shipped through the United States. Total exports as reported by the U.S. International Trade Commission include re-

exports. Total exports were estimated to be $121.7 billion in 2013, and U.S. re-exports to China represent 6.33 percent of total exports.

The employment estimates shown here are based on domestic exports only. See endnotes 5 and 6 for additional details.

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS 2014b), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and

computations, see the appendix.

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FIGURE A VIEW INTERACTIVE on epi.org

Cumulative U.S. jobs displaced by growing goods trade deficit with China, 20012013

(in thousands of jobs)

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS

2014b), andBLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and compu-

tations, see the appendix.

0

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T A B L E 2

Change in U.S. goods trade with China, by industry, 20012013

Imports Exports Trade balance

Industry*

Change($

billions,nominal)

Share

of totalchange

Change($

billions,nominal)

Share

of totalchange

Change($

billions,nominal)

Share

of totalchange

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting $2.3 0.7% $20.2 21.0% $17.9 -7.5%

Mining $0.0 0.0% $2.6 2.7% $2.7 -1.1%

Oil and gas $0.0 0.0% $0.1 0.1% $0.2 -0.1%

Minerals and ores $0.0 0.0% $2.5 2.6% $2.5 -1.0%

Manufacturing $333.6 99.2% $65.5 68.2% $-268.1 111.7%

Nondurable goods $49.0 14.6% $6.1 6.4% $-42.8 17.8%

Food $3.1 0.9% $3.9 4.0% $0.8 -0.3%

Beverage and tobacco products $0.0 0.0% $1.5 1.5% $1.5 -0.6%

Textile mills and textile product mills $9.3 2.8% $0.5 0.5% $-8.8 3.7%

Apparel $24.1 7.2% $0.0 0.0% $-24.1 10.0%

Leather and allied products $12.4 3.7% $0.3 0.3% $-12.2 5.1%

Industrial supplies $34.0 10.1% $17.4 18.1% $-16.6 6.9%

Wood products $2.5 0.7% $1.1 1.1% $-1.4 0.6%

Paper $2.7 0.8% $2.0 2.0% $-0.7 0.3%

Printed matter and related products $1.6 0.5% $0.1 0.1% $-1.5 0.6%

Petroleum and coal products $0.1 0.0% $1.4 1.4% $1.3 -0.5%

Chemicals $11.2 3.3% $11.5 11.9% $0.2 -0.1%

Plastics and rubber products $12.2 3.6% $1.0 1.0% $-11.2 4.7%

Nonmetallic mineral products $3.8 1.1% $0.4 0.4% $-3.4 1.4%

Durable goods $250.6 74.6% $42.0 43.7% $-208.7 86.9%

Primary metal $3.4 1.0% $2.6 2.7% $-0.8 0.3%

Fabricated metal products $14.5 4.3% $1.6 1.7% $-12.9 5.4%

Machinery $20.4 6.1% $7.3 7.6% $-13.2 5.5%

Computer and electronic parts $141.3 42.0% $6.8 7.0% $-134.5 56.0%

Computer and peripheral equipment $60.0 17.8% $-0.4 -0.4% $-60.3 25.1%

Communications, audio, and videoequipment

$62.5 18.6% $-0.2 -0.2% $-62.7 26.1%

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T A B L E 2 ( C O N T I N U E D )

Imports Exports Trade balance

Industry*

Change($

billions,nominal)

Shareof totalchange

Change($

billions,nominal)

Shareof totalchange

Change($

billions,nominal)

Shareof totalchange

Navigational, measuring,electromedical, and controlinstruments

$5.0 1.5% $4.5 4.7% $-0.5 0.2%

Semiconductor and other electroniccomponents, and reproducingmagnetic and optical media

$13.8 4.1% $2.8 2.9% $-11.0 4.6%

Electrical equipment, appliances, andcomponents

$23.3 6.9% $1.5 1.6% $-21.7 9.1%

Transportation equipment $11.4 3.4% $19.6 20.4% $8.2 -3.4%

Motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts $9.8 2.9% $10.0 10.4% $0.2 -0.1%

Aerospace products and parts $0.7 0.2% $9.5 9.9% $8.8 -3.7%

Railroad, ship, and othertransportation equipment

$0.9 0.3% $0.1 0.1% $-0.8 0.3%

Furniture and related products $12.3 3.6% $0.1 0.1% $-12.2 5.1%

Miscellaneous manufacturedcommodities

$24.1 7.2% $2.4 2.5% $-21.7 9.0%

Information** $0.0 0.0% $0.1 0.1% $0.1 0.0%

Scrap and second-hand goods $0.3 0.1% $7.7 8.0% $7.4 -3.1%

Total change $336.1 100.0% $96.1 100.0% $-240.1 100.0%

* Excludes utilities, construction, and service sectors, which reported no goods trade in this period.

** Includes publishing industries (excluding Internet); goods trade in this sector is concentrated in NAICS 5111, Newspaper, periodical,book, and directory publishers.

Source: Authors analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014). For a more detailed explanation of the data sources and

computations, see the appendix.

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 10

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T A B L E 3

Net U.S. jobs created or displaced by goods trade with China, by industry, 20012013

Industry TotalShare of total

jobs displaced

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 87,900 -2.8%

Mining -1,600 0.1%

Oil and gas -1,200 0.0%

Minerals and ores -400 0.0%

Utilities -10,900 0.3%

Construction -14,700 0.5%

Manufacturing -2,391,500 75.7%

Nondurable goods -375,700 11.9%

Food -7,500 0.2%

Beverage and tobacco products 2,700 -0.1%

Textile mills and textile product mills -106,800 3.4%

Apparel -203,900 6.5%

Leather and allied products -60,100 1.9%

Industrial supplies -200,300 6.3%

Wood products -22,100 0.7%

Paper -24,300 0.8%

Printed matter and related products -30,700 1.0%

Petroleum and coal products -900 0.0%

Chemicals -22,100 0.7%

Plastics and rubber products -72,800 2.3%

Nonmetallic mineral products -27,400 0.9%

Durable goods -1,815,600 57.5%

Primary metal -42,300 1.3%

Fabricated metal products -141,200 4.5%

Machinery -70,100 2.2%

Computer and electronic parts -1,249,100 39.6%Computer and peripheral equipment -732,900 23.2%

Communications, audio, and video equipment -234,700 7.4%

Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments -11,900 0.4%

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 11

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T A B L E 3 ( C O N T I N U E D )

Industry TotalShare of total

jobs displaced

Semiconductors and other electronic components, and reproducingmagnetic and optical media

-269,600 8.5%

Electrical equipment, appliances, and components -96,700 3.1%

Transportation equipment -14,000 0.4%

Motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts -34,800 1.1%

Aerospace products and parts 23,500 -0.7%

Railroad, ship, and other transportation equipment -2,800 0.1%

Furniture and related products -94,700 3.0%

Miscellaneous manufactured commodities -107,600 3.4%

Wholesale trade 0 0.0%

Retail trade 0 0.0%

Transportation and warehousing -94,200 3.0%

Information -81,400 2.6%

Finance and insurance -40,100 1.3%

Real estate and rental and leasing -24,300 0.8%

Professional, scientific, and technical services -169,900 5.4%

Management of companies and enterprises -113,400 3.6%

Administrative and support and waste management and remediationservices

-196,900 6.2%

Education services -2,200 0.1%

Healthcare and social assistance -1,500 0.0%

Arts, entertainment, and recreation -12,100 0.4%

Accommodation and food services -46,700 1.5%

Other services (except public administration) -27,500 0.9%

Public administration -16,100 0.5%

Subtotal, nonmanufacturing -765,600 24.3%

Total* -3,157,100

*Subcategory and overall totals may vary slightly due to rounding.

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS 2014b), andBLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and

computations, see the appendix.

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 12

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 13

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FIGURE B

Net U.S. jobs displaced due to goods trade deficit with China as a share of total state

employment, 20012013

* 10 least-impacted states, plus D.C.

** 10 next-least-impacted states

*** 10 midde-impacted states

**** 10 next-most-impacted states

***** 10 most-impacted states

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2014b),

and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see the

appendix.

AK

AL

ARAZ

CA CO

CT

DC

DE

FL

GA

HI

IA

ID

IL IN

KSKY

LA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MN

MO

MS

MT

NC

ND

NE

NH

NJ

NM

NV

NY

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

WY

0.59% to

1.29%*

1.31% to

1.74%**

1.77% to

2.14%***

2.22% to

2.43%****

2.44% to

3.67%*****

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T A B L E 4

Net U.S. jobs displaced due to goods trade deficit with China, by state, 20012013 (ranked by

jobs displaced as a share of total state employment)

Rank State Net jobs displaced State employment (in 2011)Jobs displaced as share

of state employment

1 Oregon 62,700 1,710,300 3.67%

2 California 564,200 16,426,700 3.43%

3 New Hampshire 22,700 684,800 3.31%

4 Minnesota 83,300 2,728,900 3.05%

5 Massachusetts 97,200 3,284,700 2.96%

6 North Carolina 119,600 4,195,800 2.85%

7 Texas 304,700 11,455,100 2.66%

8 Rhode Island 13,200 511,200 2.58%

9 Vermont 8,200 327,300 2.51%

10 Idaho 16,700 684,900 2.44%

11 Wisconsin 68,600 2,819,500 2.43%

12 Colorado 59,400 2,492,400 2.38%

13 Indiana 67,800 2,934,500 2.31%14 Arizona 61,200 2,688,000 2.28%

15 South Carol ina 44,700 1,968,900 2.27%

16 Tennessee 62,500 2,784,500 2.24%

17 Kentucky 41,100 1,838,400 2.24%

18 Illinois 132,500 5,926,900 2.24%

19 Georgia 93,700 4,193,800 2.23%

20 New Jersey 92,000 4,152,500 2.22%

21 Utah 27,000 1,260,800 2.14%

22 Alabama 42,100 1,981,100 2.13%

23 Pennsylvania 122,600 5,853,300 2.09%

24 Ohio 106,400 5,213,500 2.04%

25 Connecticut 35,500 1,742,500 2.04%

26 New York 179,200 8,959,000 2.00%

27 Arkansas 24,500 1,235,800 1.98%

28 Michigan 80,100 4,191,900 1.91%

29 Washington 55,900 3,118,000 1.79%

30 Maine 11,400 643,100 1.77%

31 Oklahoma 29,300 1,681,800 1.74%

32 Mississippi 20,200 1,181,300 1.71%

33 Virginia 63,500 3,860,100 1.65%

34 Missouri 44,200 2,742,100 1.61%

35 Iowa 24,600 1,538,800 1.60%

36 Maryland 42,600 2,894,600 1.47%37 New Mexico 12,500 869,800 1.44%

38 Florida 115,700 8,101,900 1.43%

39 Kansas 19,100 1,389,000 1.38%

40 Delaware 5,500 420,400 1.31%

41 Nebraska 12,200 943,600 1.29%

42 Nevada 15,200 1,204,900 1.26%

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 15

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T A B L E 4 ( C O N T I N U E D )

Rank State Net jobs displaced State employment (in 2011)Jobs displaced as share

of state employment

43 West Virginia 9,400 748,600 1.26%

44 South Dakota 5,000 415,600 1.20%

45 Hawaii 6,100 629,500 0.97%

46 Louisiana 18,300 1,973,900 0.93%

47 District of Columbia 2,800 310,600 0.90%

48 Alaska 2,600 344,300 0.76%

49 Montana 3,600 480,000 0.75%

50 North Dakota 2,400 370,800 0.65%

51 Wyoming 1,700 290,000 0.59%

Total* 3,154,300 140,399,600 2.25%

*Subcategory and overall totals may vary slightly due to rounding.

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS 2014b), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and

computations, see the appendix.

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 16

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FIGURE C

Net U.S. jobs displaced due to goods trade deficit with China as a share of total congressional district

employment, 20012013

*Subcategory and overall totals may vary slightly due to rounding.

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2014b),

and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see the

appendix.

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 17

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T A B L E 5

20 congressional districts hardest hit by U.S. goods trade deficit with China, 20012013 (ranked

by jobs displaced as share of district employment)

Rank State District Net jobs displaced District employment (in 2011) Jobs displaced as a share of district employment

1 California 17 61,500 346,100 17.77%

2 California 18 50,700 344,500 14.72%3 California 19 39,900 324,000 12.31%

4 Texas 31 36,800 323,000 11.39%

5 Oregon 1 32,500 377,200 8.62%

6 California 15 28,000 336,400 8.32%

7 Massachusetts 3 20,000 355,400 5.63%

8 California 40 15,600 280,500 5.56%

9 Texas 3 20,600 371,200 5.55%

10 Georgi a 14 15,700 290,700 5.40%

11 California 34 16,200 309,400 5.24%

12 Texas 10 17,300 342,600 5.05%

13 California 52 17,000 350,100 4.86%

14 Minnesota 1 16,300 348,200 4.68%

15 New York 18 15,200 332,100 4.58%

16 California 45 16,200 354,400 4.57%

17 Texas 18 13,900 306,400 4.54%

18 Illinois 6 15,700 355,600 4.42%

19 Texas 17 14,100 329,300 4.28%

20 Texas 2 15,600 364,600 4.28%

Source:Authors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2014), Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS 2014b), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and

computations, see the appendix.

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 18

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 19

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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Summing up the overall impact ofthe growing U.S.-China trade

deficit on jobs and wages

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IG L-LH GJ I L> .. LG@GH L>IJI K HHH GM>IN $180 >>

G NG. HI JIJI JN LG@GH, H-

>N II G G GJIH, KG G

>H I GH-

I I I N H L. G JHII

HH>HI >H BJGJ G II>HI>H G GIG>>< JNI >IH I GI>

LG@GH L LG >H N < >GIH. !L-

KG, L GHG HJI HG >H- LG@GH G H>< J G GI >H>>IN

NIH, GIG I G IGGN IG JHII

HH>HI, IGN >GH>< I JG GI

G G GJIH. AJIG !H (2014) > II

>GHH > >H>>IN NIH G G I 30 I>H

GI G >GHH > IG-JHI-

I HH>HI NIH G IG->H LG@GH.

>HIH IGH > I IG I K

GGI>K JH JH, I JHI N IG

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N KG>H I>< >< HIGJIJG

NI, H>N > I JIJG>< HIG.

BIL DG 2001 DG 2013, 3.7 >-

> .. JIJG>< H LG HI (BJGJ G

II>HI>H 2014). >I

L>I C> LH GHH> G I >HI 2.4

>> JIJG>< H > I>H G>, G JI 65

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C> JIH G GN IL-I>GH .. J-

IJG>< H HI G >H > I>H G>.

NI >IH IG >I>> > I>H G

>IGGI H I U H JV I IG

HI> NI. FG +HGK, G M-

, N > I JI >IGHI GIH I @ J G

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N IG > >J), K>< I NIJH, LKG, H I >IH N IHKH G I G> N-

I.

N I >HH II J HI NI

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I JI >IGHI GIH N JGIG I >I GN H,

>IGHI-GI-HH>I>K >JHIG>H HJ H GH>I>

HIGJI> G I MG>>< NI HG LG GIH. " HGI, > INTH N L>I >IH

>H J I I IG

>>I L>I C> G J G >@N I IJ

N-L> HHH I H>N GI>H.

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 20

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Its not an accident: Addressingthe causes of trade-related

job losses

L>I L>I C> HJ JI I .. >-

N@GH. EH>N H> I>H >H HK G:

>GH > I ..-C> IG >>I >H JH N H-

>> C>H >>H II .. >N GHH.

Currency manipulation is a major cause

of the trade deficit

A G JH I G>N < .. IG >>I

L>I C> >H JGGN >JI>. >@ IG JG-

G>H, I C>H NJ H I JIJI GN HI

I G.18 "HI, C> H I> H >JI >IH JGGN?

AH C>TH GJI>K>IN H HG, >IH JGGN HJ

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H $681 >> > .. GHJGN >H IG HJ-

G>I>H I HJGHH >IH JGGN HI I .. G

IG G JGG>H ("F 2014). AH J 30,

2014, C> GN $4 IG>> > G>-

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> IG JIG>H > I >JI I>G JGG>HWV

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>IGKI> KG I HI >IH HG IGKI> N

C> GI>>>N G>HH I HI .. MGIH I C>

I GHI I LG N JI H>>G I I

GI>>> GHH> I NJ, @>< .. I>K > C> > KGN JIGN LG ..

MGIH I L>I C>H >H I

HI >GII I>IG G I >I IIH >

IG I>G-JIGN G@IH, K G >GII I

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 21

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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GN IG GH I EJG >

>.

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JIG>H I L H>>G >>H > GG I GII

I>G GI>K I>I>KHH I GI I>G L

MGIH. >H L>HG JGGN >JI> H H

IG>JI I I I G>IH.

HH C> G>HH I G KJ I NJ N I HI

I>G >>IH IG IG >HIGI>H (JGI

IG > I>H HI>), I .. IG >>I GI

HHH L> I>J I N. AIJ

> GH I >IGI> GHHJG IL 2005

2008 L H G>I> > I NJ, >I LH

I >II I I I GGHI I L>>< ..-

C> IG GKGH JGH, JG-

H>< $681 >> > II G> H> I A>>HIGI> I@ >

> 2009 ("F 2014). C>H NJ IJNfell1.3

GI HI I .. G IL DG 2013

IG 10, 2014, H HJ C>TH H-

H>K JGHH G>GIH

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I GJ>GH J>JH HI GH,

IGJI>SI >I IIH JG GSN

K I N IJI JGHH .. JG G >-

> HHIH N JGGN >JIGHV (> IMH LJ UH>HII L>I >IG-

I> LV (I>, I GH>I G H

HHHH I IH I JGGN >JI>

L>I I HIG@ (II 2013). GHJGN

FG +HGK K I JIG>IN I HI

JGHH G>< JGGN >IGKI> (BGH HIN /G >I>K.

A GI GGI G E" HLH II J GKJI>

I NJ IG JGKJ AH> JGG>H LJ

GJ I .. IG >>I N IL $200 >>

$500 >> L>I> IG NGH, IGN >GH>< ..

D N H J H $720 >>, >< J I 5.8 >-

> .. H, GJ>< I G J>I N

J I $266 >> G NG >GH>< I HII

>H GHJGH N J I $101 >> G NG (II

2014). +KJI> LJ H LG@GH > C>

IG AH> JIG>H N GJ>< >I>GN KG-

I>< >GH>< LG@GHT JGH>< LG.

"I LJ H >I IG JIG>H. JGKJI>

I NJ H JI I JG H HJ H AJH-

IG>, 'L , JI AG>, BGO>, LH JG-

G>H K H KGKJ L>I GHI I IH C> IG JGGN >JIGH.

Other illegal laws, regulations, and

policies are also responsible for the large

U.S. trade deficit with China

CJGGN >JI> >H GI> II K>IH I

GJH I >IGI> IG>< HNHI HI JI > I

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 22

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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A (G AH G)

-

H >H H >KN HJGHHH G G> LGH

GJI> HIH L>I> C>. A 2006 AF-C" HIJN

HI>I II GGHH> G G>H

< L-

H LG@GH N IL 47 GI 86 GI

(AF-C", CG>, >I 2006, 138). C> H

GK>H HH>K >GI MGI HJH>>H I N @N

>JHIG>H (H, G M, !N 2008, 2009, 2012).

F>N, >I >I>H HIG>I, IG> GG>GH I >GIH.

Police remedies to address other

violations

GIN JH I < C> >I I

> I >J N GII>H I >I> G

>GK G G K>GI HIGH, C>TH IGN

H JGIG I>I I >IGI> > N>< >

HI .. HI> LG@GH >GH > KG

JI>I> >H G I >I IIH

IG JIG>H, H L H HII-L G>KIN

L MGIGH > C>. >H H>I H GI I

LGI

J>IN H IJHH .. IG>H, >I->< NI > L> GI>H, HIIH,

I>G GH I >I IIH. .. I>

>IGHIH K HJG L> .. JI>I>H K

N GG G>IH I>G G>GI >KHIIH

(II 2007, 2011).

I>H K I@ > GHH. " IG

2009, I >>HIGI> J II >I

LJ I@ I> I GHIG>I >GIH C>H I>GH

G IG NGH JG H> HGHI

I> H> 2001 II IH HJGH JI>>O

(+ 2009, A> G AG> JIJG>>I > GH>< G I

8,000 .. H > 2010 (II 2010). 2010

I>I> I>H G I 80 C>H LH, GH, GI>H II K>I >IGI> IG < JIG>H (>< 2010) >H I

I>G-G>I FD" KG I HI IG H,

IG>>< N I >I IIH I >I >KHI IGG>HH (I >I KIJGH

LN L HJH>>G>H) LG GHH> G GN

IL-I>GH C>TH 2013 (>-

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 23

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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>HIGN CG, C> 2014; "F 2014). JIHJG-

>KHII > IG>H II

@ I IIHSH N

@N G > I H>I JIJG>< GJI>

H G I >I IIH I C> H> C> IG

I > 2001.

Failed expectations of a growing Chinese

market for U.S. goods

AIG G>I>N >GII G>H N I G-

IGH >G>O ..-C> IG LH II I

>I IIH LJ >I JH >GH MGIH

I G C>. !L-

KG, H>I L>HG GGIH I G> H > HH, I>H

H>>I >GH > .. HJG MGIH I C>.

HI G>N < MGIH I C> G J@

>I>H HJ H H, HG, >H; >IG-

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JGH HJ H >GGI -IG> >GN

(H I >HJHH> 2 G>G > I>H G,

JI 5 I I I>H GGI. FJGIG-

G, I >GH > .. MGIH I C> H> 2001

H KGL N I GIH, H

HL G>G > 1.

Conclusion

< .. >I L>I C> H >H-

>>H H > I >I IIH IG>-

JI K>N I I G>H>H > .. JIJG>< N-

I, L> H >. GKG, I >I IIH >H

>>< J G>< MGI >IN, > K>GI.

"H AG>TH HH C>TH ? HLG >H I GN

>GI>K. C> H I I ..

HJG G@I G NI , HJ-

GHH I JGH>< LG >IH L > HH

L>I L@ JGGN, , HI >GIIN, L H

GN $4 IG>> > G>KHI>< I > J> I C>-

H JHH. AIJ C>

H G>, >I >H J JHJHI>.

C>TH KHI JGHH G>I I

GHH I KJ >IH JGGN, K I I KGI-

>< >IH HI> N, >I> > C> H

GI G>N. +IN, C> HL I

7.3 GI > I I>G JGIG 2014, >I >H G-

I I HL JGIG KG I MI >K NGH (J

2014). "IH GGHH> G G>>N HJH>>O>< MGIH. C>TH N

>H IIG>< I I> < >H LG > H>

H I G >IH N N >< HH -

I MGIH G I HI>

N > IG GI>H> H I JGH G HIGH >HHJH > I C>H N

G IH >GII >GHI HI. "I >H I> G

I >>HIGI> I GH I I < GJH

H G >HIH, LG@GH, JH>HHH, C I HI >JI> N

C> IG JIG>H (II 2014).

About the authors

Robert E. Scott> I E> >N "HI>IJI >

1996 >H JGGIN >GIG IG JIJG-

>< >N GHG. !>H GH GHG >J >IG-

I> >H, IG JIJG>< >>H

I>G >IH LG@>< > I >I IIH

IG JIG>H, I > >IH G>KHI-

I, I G> IH IG >ILH. ! H J>H L>N > > JGH

I JG GHH, >J> > IGN G

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 24

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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G >, >J>< '+, C'',

BG >H

G I >KGH>IN C>G> I BG@N.

Will Kimball> E" > 2013. AH GHG HH>HII,

HJGIH I GHG E"TH >HIH I>H

HJ H LH, >IG-

I> IG, I >HJG. G>G I >>< E",

> LG@ I I CIG BJN G>G-

>I>H I CIG G E> >N +HG.

! H B.A. > >H >I> > G

I >KGH>IN CI>JI.

Acknowledgments

JIGH I@Ross EisenbreyJosh BivensG

IH. >H GHG LH HH> N HJGI

G IAlliance for American Manufacturing.

Appendix: Methodology

IG NI NHH > I>H GGI G

H I>, >JHIGN-H HIJN I GI>-

H>H IL IG LH NI

G GM>IN 195 >>K>J >JHIG>H

I .. N, H>N I 45 JHI H-

IGH23 JH>< I 'GI AG> "JHIGN CHH>>-

I> NHI ('A"C) L>I I I> G I ..

CHJH BJGJ (2013) I .. "IGI> G

C>HH> ("C 2014).

>H HIJN HGIH MGIH GJ HI>N G

G> G IG

JIG>H, MGI I I >I IIH, I G-

MGI G I >I IIH. BJH N HI>-

N GJ MGIH I >I IIH,NI JI>H G G H N HI>

MGIH. HJG I I >I IG JH

G I JI I NI II IG >H I

>G IL HI> MGIH HJI>

>GIH.

JG H HJGI N $1 >> MGIH

G >GIH G 195 >GI .. >JHIG>H >H

HI>I JH>< G GJ>GIH G>K G

>JI-JIJI I K N I BRE

(2014).24 >H >JH I I >GI IH

JIJI (G M, I JG H HJ-

GI N $1 >> > JI HHN) I >>-

GI IH >JHIG>H II HJN I JI

>JHIGN G M, I >>GI >IH >J H >

JI GIH, HI, GJG, H L H HGK> >JHIG>H

HJ H JI>, JIG G >JIH I I IG K> JIJG-

>< >H. >H HI>IH I G II

IG JH>< >G> HI>IH G II

JHIG>H > K H NG

( >JI-JIJI I G I NG 2001 LH JH > I>H

HIJN) II LG K N I .. DGII

CG I BRE. "I >H I HII>HI> HJGKN

IJ H G HI > >>K>J >H, G

I >< G H>< GI>JG GJI> >>I>H

(BGGG J 2004 >H I L HIJ>H

H LH GGIH >>K>J I H>

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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2014) > JG->I, IG->I, IL->I 'A"C

GIH. CHJI> >GIH HI> MGIH G

L G NG.

Step 2. G I I B ENI +J>G-

IH IH (BRE 2014), IG I JHI -

KGI >I I B >JHIGN HH>>I>H HNHI. FG

'A"C-H I, IG G 195 B >JHIG>H.

I G I G 'A"C >JHIG>H I I>G

GHI>K B HIGH.

IG I, L> G > JGGI GH, G I

>I G 2005 GH JH>< J>H G> IGH

G I BRE (2014) I BJGJ G I-

I>HI>H (2014).

Step 3.+ HI> NI GJ>GIH IH

G L G I BRE (2014). H IG>-

H G >JI-JIJI >JHIGN-N->JHIGN IH II

HL I NI GJ>GIH G $1 >> >

JIJIH > 2005 GH. , G >JHIGN iI aijIGN

>H I NI >>GIN HJGI > >JHIGN iN

> HH > >JHIGNj LG i=j, I NI

>GIN HJGI.

Analysis

Step 1. Job equivalents.B IG I G >

>I IG>H. I T2001 I 195P2 IG>M J

J >GIH J MGIH G

2001. T2013 >H > H I 195P2 IG>M 2013

IG I. F>N, T2008 >H > H I 195P2 IG>M

2008 IG I. D> E2001 H I 195P195 IG>M

H>HI>< I G 2001 HI> NI

GJ>GIH IH. HI>I I H >H N

IG, GG I L>< IG>M GI>H:

J2001=T2001PE2001

J2008=T2008PE2001

J2013=T2013PE2001

J2001 >H 195P2 IG>M >HI N >GIH

H HJGI N MGIH G 195 >JHIG>H

> 2001. >>GN, J2008 J2013 G 195P2 IG>H

H >H G HJGI N >GIH MGIH

(GHI>KN) G 195 >JHIG>H > 2008

2013, GHI>KN.

NI HI>IH G GI> IG, LH

IG, KGI>H>< LG HI I OG G I>H NH>H.

HHJ II H

LIG IN G GJ > I >I IIH G

>GI G HJI>.

HI>I H GI/HI KG GI> I> G>H,

L GG I L>< GI>H:

JM01-13=J2013-J2001

JM01-08=J2008-J2001

JM08-13=J2013-J2008

Step 2. State-by-state analysis.FG HIIH, NI-

N->JHIGN I G I> G I CHJH BJGJTH

AG> CJ>IN JGKN (.. CHJH BJGJ

2013) I G 2011 G >I 45 J>J -

HJH >JHIG>H >

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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Step 3. Congressional district analysis

ENI N >HIG>I, N >JHIGN, N

HII >H I> G I AC I G 2011, L>

G I >GHI I> JH I I

JG>H I 113I C 2012). "

GG I JI >HI > >HIG>I, L JH J > StjM01-13, L> G-

GHI >>K>J HII ->HI-N->JHIGN HI>-

IH, > I H Stj01, Stj02, StjiWStj51,

L>I i GGHI>< I HII JG IG>M

>< 45P1.

E HII H Y >HIG>IH, H Cdi >H

> H I 45MYIG>M >HIG>I

NI HGH G HII. C >HIG>I

HGH G JI IJH:

Cdj01=Stj01TCd01

Cdji=StjiTCdi

Cdj51=Stj52TCd51

LG Cdji >H > H I 45MY >HI >

HII iN >HIG>I N >JHIGN.

C >HIG>IH G HI>I G I 113I C-

LH I > 2012.

HI N >HIG>I,

L J I HJHIGH > >HIG>I >

HII.

Endnotes

1. 113I C 2013 2014. HIH >

I !JH LG GI> H I 2010 >I

IIH CHJH (>@>> 2014).

2.C>G>TH 17I C D>HIG>I >JH A ".,

"I CG, , BN (>@>> 2014).

3.D>GI H >H GG I H >H L>I> K

>JHIGN, HJ H IG K>H GIH. ">GI H

>H G IH >H > >JHIG>H II HJN >JIH

I II >JHIGN, HJ H G>GN I (.H

GJG GJIH (.GH HH), IGHGII>,

>GI>. +H>< NI GHJIH G I

H>< L< HNHITH KGJ JJ > IG GI LH, H> HGK> >>H,

>IIJ GGIN HIGH, GIH G HJI> HI> MGIH I C>. H LH LG H I

H>O I >I

IIH. 'LH GGIH G I CHJH BJGJ I

CG DGII JHJN H>O GIH

II MGIH. I MGIH H GGI N I CHJH

BJGJ >J G>.., IG JIG>H H> IGJI IIH. FG 2013, GIH G C>

LG $440.4 >>, II MGIH LG $121.7 >>,

I GGI IG LH $318.7 >> ("C

2014).

6.>H NH>H HI>IH I .. >IG II IG

H L>I C> I LG (GHI>KN), L>I I

IG H JI H HI> MGIH HH >GIH

G HJI> (JIGTH NH>H "C 2014).

7. NH>H > I>H GGI >H H HI> MGIH, H

HL > 1, MJH G> G IG JIG>H,

>GI >I I >I IIH, I G-MGI IC>. > G>N,

I>G GJI> H I HJGI HI> NI,

IN G MJ G I JH G.

8.G JH G H- JHIG>H 192

193, GHI>KN, > I B , IG G

H HJGI G >H N IG > IH HIGH,

G>< I I B .

EPI BR IEF ING PAPER #385 | DECEMBER 10, 2014 PAGE 27

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9.AH G GJIH G KG>IN

>JHIG>H HJHIGH L>I> I G 'A"C-H

IH HL > 2. N H>HI 10 IH

GJIH >J>< >I H>,

I-IG>H, >GI> J>I>H,

IG>H, M> JIJG>H,

GH, LH, JG I I

G KJH G 2013, G M, I > KJ >H

JI>> N 1,000/525.1 (I G> >M > NG 2013) =

1.90. JH, I G KJ JIGH G>G

GJIH >H GN IL> H G KJ >

2013. G KJ JIG IG> GIH

>GIH > 2013 M > KJH > II NG N

42.7 GI. >M, UI GJGH JH.

12.F>K I >I

C >HIG>IH HL > 5 LG H>N

G->I > I JIG IG> GIH >JHIG>H:C>G>, MH, GHI.

>JHIGNTH HG H HI G >HI I 63.9 GI > GI I I> KGI >HIG>IH > 5 H

>J >HIG>IH > 'L G@ ">>H II LG H KGN

G >I > JIGH IG> GIH. " 'L G@TH

18I C D>HIG>I, JIGH IG> GIH

JI G 58.3 GI H HI; > ">>HT

6I C D>HIG>I, I HG LH 75.5 GI.

G >H H I HIIH HI I I 20

GHI->I >HIG>IH; GTH 14I

C D>HIG>I HI GI>KN H HG H >

JIGH GIH, 4.5 GI H HI, L>HJG>< KGN G JIJG>< I

JJ>H I K> J GJHI. 'I>N,

JIJG>< JI G HG, 75.7 HG,

H HI ( 3).

13.C>G>TH 17I C D>HIG>I >JH A

"., "I CG, , BN (>@>> 2014).

14.H HI>IH G I JI > I>H GGI.

15.EK > ..-C> IG >H G INH GSII

>H G I > LI HI>

HI I> > > I >I IIH > >I >GHH I

GIJG I >I HJ>>IN. " I >I IIH, GI

GHG H HL II I G HG I> >

> 6.4 GIIH IL I 1947R1987

KG (EHN, !>,

> 2013, 1 I 7), II I GH>J >I HG

> (GI, >IGHI, G>I>, G>IH) GH N

I H JI. JIGH J II UHG>< I

G->IH>K I I .. HJN >V LH

I U>< II> MI> I > > I ..

G HG KG I HI 25 NGH,V I >II G>H

> I >I HG I> >.

16.>H G> HI>I >H K G, >H I

>J > B>KH (2013).

17. GJIN GI G>I>>H IG

NI HIJ>H >H II I GIH H I

>H HI> GJI>. HHGI II > >GIH

G C> , IN LJ G N >GIH G

H IG L-L

BJH>HH CJ> 2011). !LKG, >GII L >G>

GHG N AJIG, DG, !H (2012, 4) H HL

II U>GH MHJG I L-> JIGN >GIH >H

HH>I L>I G>H>< JNI, GH G-G

GI>>I>, >GH JH >H>>IN IG

IGHG >IH, H L H L>I LG L

8/10/2019 U.S. Trade Deficit With China

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> >H II UIG GIH L H > MGI>< >JHIG>H

HIGNH H L >GIH G I JIJI

HI> >GH. BJH trade deficitsK G>H KG I HI

, G H K >H N >GIH I

GI N MGIHV (B>KH 2008, 1).

18. >> I C>H JGGN >H I G>>

(+B) I J>IH KJ G NJ, I IG JH I

HG> I JGGN IGJH G.

19.KG I HI IL H, C> >GHI HH>KN KJ

>IH JGGN (> 1994) I GH >IH KJ,

H>N IG 2005. > I NJ 31.2 GI >

> IGH IL DG 2005 J 2014

("F 2014), >IH >, J 2014 KJ G> 15.1

GI belowI G KJ > DG 1990 (BG

KGGH I FG +HGK NHI 2014). AH TH

JGGI JI HJGJH LH H-GGI $182.8 >>,

L> LH 24.1 GI I JGGI JI HJGJHH

I I 20 JGGN >JIGH ("F 2014). "F

HGKI>KN GIH II C>TH HG I H L> G>H I

44.1 GI > 2019, HHJ>< I>JI> JGGI

>>H ("F 2014). "I >H H >GII I I II

NH>H I >IGI> IG I G IG I

GGI N C> HLH II C>TH JGGI JI

HJGJH LH JGHI>I N GM>IN 50 GI, G

G, > NG IL 2005 2012 (II 2014).

21.B>< > 2002, I G > G I 30

GI HI HKG G JGG>H HJ H I JG

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