U.S. Shale Gas Resources, Reserves and $$$ John B. Curtis Potential Gas Agency Colorado School of Mines.

U.S. Shale GasU.S. Shale Gas

Resources, Resources, Reserves and $$$Reserves and $$$

John B. CurtisJohn B. CurtisPotential Gas AgencyPotential Gas AgencyColorado School of MinesColorado School of Mines

Location of U.S Shale Gas PlaysLocation of U.S Shale Gas Plays

U.S. Energy Information Agency, March 2010U.S. Energy Information Agency, March 2010

Oil Shale Gas Hydrates

TightGas Sands;

CBM;Gas Shales

TightOil;

Heavy Oil;Bituminous

Sands

Oil Gas

Conventional Reservoirs:Small Volumes,Easy to Develop

Unconventional Reservoirs:Large Volumes,Hard to Develop

Huge Volumes,Difficult

to Develop

Incr

easi

ng P

rodu

ct P

rice

Imp

rovi

ng

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Province Resource Size

The Resource PyramidThe Resource Pyramid

(S. Sonnenberg, CSM)

Shale Gas Annual Production and Energy Shale Gas Annual Production and Energy Information Administration (EIA) ForecastInformation Administration (EIA) Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

19791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023202520272029

Annual Production, Bcf

CUM

EIA Projection

EnCanaEnCana

Targeted Research – $150 Targeted Research – $150 MillionMillion

Acquisitions – >$50 BillionAcquisitions – >$50 Billion

Source: Trollart.com – Ray TrollSource: Trollart.com – Ray Troll

Resource Development – Resource Development – >$15 Billion>$15 Billion

Source:devonenergy.com

Source:devonenergy.com

Source:AAPG

Source:AAPG

Source:chiefoiland gas.com

Hydrocarbons From Shale – Never Hydrocarbons From Shale – Never Say DieSay Die

Growth in Barnett Shale - Ft. Worth Basin

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Annual Production, Bcf

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Producing Wells

Gas Production Well Count

Shale Gas Reservoir Mechanisms

U.S. DOE

Exploration ConsiderationsExploration Considerations

• Natural fractures - Friend or Foe?• Facies changes - greater permeability• Kerogen type - I,II,IIS,III• Microbial or thermogenic gas?• Thermal maturation history• MWD - especially w/ gas isotopes

Some Elements of a Successful Some Elements of a Successful Shale Gas PlayShale Gas Play

ProductivityProductivity

Gas-In-PlaceGas-In-PlaceThicknessThickness

Organic RichnessOrganic Richness

MaturationMaturation

BrittlenessBrittleness

MineralogyMineralogy PermeabilityPermeability

Pore Pressure

Pore Pressure

Potential Supply of Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the Natural Gas in the United StatesUnited States

Report of theReport of thePotential Gas CommitteePotential Gas Committee(December 31, 2008)(December 31, 2008)

Regional Resource AssessmentRegional Resource Assessment

Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2009)

Traditional 1,673.4 TcfCoalbed 163.0 TcfTotal U.S. 1,836.4 Tcf

Traditional 1,673.4 TcfCoalbed 163.0 TcfTotal U.S. 1,836.4 Tcf

353.517.3

455.23.4

24.016.6

193.857.0

51.32.6

274.97.5

374.451.9

PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-20082008

Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2009)

Total Potential Gas Resources (mean values)Total Potential Gas Resources (mean values)

Possible Constraints on Future Gas Possible Constraints on Future Gas SupplySupply

Sufficient Supply toMeet Demand

Sufficient Supply toMeet Demand

TechnologyTechnologyResource

BaseResource

Base

EnvironmentalConcerns

EnvironmentalConcerns

Skilled Workforce

Skilled Workforce

Regulatory &Land IssuesRegulatory &Land Issues

Gas PriceGas PricePipelineCapacityPipelineCapacity

Rig Availability

Rig Availability

Potential Gas Agency