US National Interests 1. 1.What are the threats to the US? 2. 2.What role should the US have in the world? Who decides the answer?

US National InterestsUS National Interests

1. What are the threats to the US?

2. What role should the US have in the world?

Who decides the answer?

Theories?Theories?

““Isolationism” (regional power only)Isolationism” (regional power only)

vs. vs.

InternationalismInternationalism

RealistsRealists IdealistsIdealists

(Liberalism/Wilsonianism)(Liberalism/Wilsonianism)

Pre-WW II Policies: Pre-WW II Policies: US as a Regional PowerUS as a Regional Power

1.1. Manifest DestinyManifest Destiny

2.2. Free Market economics Free Market economics 1.1. Open access for US Open access for US

investmentinvestment

3.3. Spreading Democracy*****Spreading Democracy*****

4.4. Nervousness about Nervousness about CommitmentsCommitments

Post-WW II ChoicePost-WW II Choice

Regional Power Regional Power

vs. vs.

Global PowerGlobal Power

Choice: Global (1947-1952)Choice: Global (1947-1952)

Explaining the Cold WarExplaining the Cold War

1.1. RealismRealism

2.2. IdealismIdealism

3.3. Economic InterestsEconomic Interests

Marxism, CommunismMarxism, Communism

The Theory: The Theory: Karl Marx and Friedrich EngelsKarl Marx and Friedrich Engels The Communist Manifesto 18481848

In Practice:In Practice: DictatorshipDictatorship No political freedomsNo political freedoms Command Economy: no economic Command Economy: no economic

freedomsfreedoms

Communism in Communism in PowerPowerSoviet Union 1917 Soviet Union 1917

– 20 million deaths in 1950s20 million deaths in 1950s

LeninLenin StalinStalin

Communism in Communism in PowerPower

People’s Republic of China People’s Republic of China 19491949– Estimates from 50-100 Estimates from 50-100 million (1949-76)million (1949-76)

– Mao ZedongMao Zedong

US Cold War PoliciesUS Cold War Policies

1.1. Anti-Soviet/Anti-CommunistAnti-Soviet/Anti-Communist

2.2. Free MarketsFree Markets

3.3. Spreading Democracy***Spreading Democracy***

4.4. MultilateralismMultilateralism

5.5. Regional ConflictRegional Conflict

6.6. Deterrence and Forward Deterrence and Forward PresencePresence

1. Anti-Soviet/Anti-1. Anti-Soviet/Anti-CommunismCommunism

““Truman Doctrine”Truman Doctrine” speech, March 1947 NSC-68

– (US rearmament(US rearmament plan, 1950)plan, 1950)

Harry Harry TrumanTruman

Division of Europe (By 1948)Division of Europe (By 1948)

BipolarityBipolarityThe Cold War Balance of Power The Cold War Balance of Power

IsraelIsrael Syria/EgyptSyria/Egypt

EthiopiaEthiopia SomaliaSomalia

TaiwanTaiwan ChinaChina

S. KoreaS. Korea N. KoreaN. Korea

S. Viet NamS. Viet Nam N. Viet NamN. Viet Nam

W. BerlinW. Berlin E. BerlinE. Berlin

W. GermanyW. Germany E. GermanyE. Germany

Britain/France/JapanBritain/France/Japan Poland/CzechPoland/Czech

USUS USSRUSSR

ContainmentContainment

Kennan’s Long Telegram as published in Kennan’s Long Telegram as published in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs, “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” by “X”, 1947by “X”, 1947

George KennanGeorge Kennan

2. Free Markets2. Free Markets

Strong Strong political political

economyeconomy strong strong stabilitystability

through through middle middle

free marketsfree markets class and class and failurefailure

economic andeconomic and ofof

social mobilitysocial mobility communistcommunist

subversion*subversion*

peacepeace*Still US belief that free markets will discourage radical ideologies*Still US belief that free markets will discourage radical ideologies

(radical Islam in 21(radical Islam in 21stst century) century)

US PoliciesUS Policies

For Europe: For Europe: ““Marshall Plan” Marshall Plan” Speech, June 1947

Building Global Economic OrderBuilding Global Economic Order International Monetary Fund – International Monetary Fund – IMF General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

– GATT – GATT (example of GATT Agreements)– World Trade Organization - World Trade Organization - WTO

World Bank

3. Spreading Democracy3. Spreading Democracy

The Good NewsThe Good NewsEurope and Northeast AsiaEurope and Northeast AsiaLatin America and Southeast Latin America and Southeast

AsiaAsia

Freedom HouseMap of free nations

The Bad NewsThe Bad News

Non-democratic nations that were US Non-democratic nations that were US allies or US-supported during some allies or US-supported during some part of the cold war:part of the cold war:

Nicaragua, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Brazil, South Africa, Honduras, Brazil, South Africa, Somalia, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kenya, Zaire, South Korea, Iran, Kenya, Zaire, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Thailand, Burma, Pakistan, Turkey, Thailand, Burma, CubaCuba

Worse NewsWorse News

PM MossadeghPM Mossadegh Pres. ArbenzPres. Arbenz Pres. AllendePres. Allende

Iran, 1953Iran, 1953 Guatemala, 1954 Guatemala, 1954 Chile, Chile, 19731973

Strange NewsStrange News

4. Multilateralism4. Multilateralism

North Atlantic Treaty Organization - North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO

Central Treaty Organization - CENTO Central Treaty Organization - CENTO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization- Southeast Asia Treaty Organization-

SEATO Australia, New Zealand, US Pact – Australia, New Zealand, US Pact – ANZUS United Nations

In Europe NATO vs. Warsaw PactIn Europe NATO vs. Warsaw Pact– deploymentsdeployments

5. Regional Conflict5. Regional Conflict

Regional ConflictsRegional Conflicts

Israel vs. Syria/Egypt/PLOIsrael vs. Syria/Egypt/PLO

Ethiopia vs. Somalia (1970s)Ethiopia vs. Somalia (1970s)

Taiwan vs. China (1949-present)Taiwan vs. China (1949-present)

S. Korea vs. N. Korea (1948-present)S. Korea vs. N. Korea (1948-present)

S. Viet Nam vs. N. Viet Nam (1956-1975)S. Viet Nam vs. N. Viet Nam (1956-1975)

FNLA/UNITA vs. MPLA (Angola, 1970s-80s)FNLA/UNITA vs. MPLA (Angola, 1970s-80s)

Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador (1970s-Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador (1970s-80s)80s)

USUS USSRUSSR

Rules of Regional Rules of Regional ConflictConflict

1. No direct US-Soviet 1. No direct US-Soviet conflictconflict

2. No escalation2. No escalation

6. Deterrence and Forward 6. Deterrence and Forward PresencePresence

From Great Powers to Superpowers!From Great Powers to Superpowers!

What would WW III look like?What would WW III look like?

Underneath all the political and military Underneath all the political and military action during Cold War…action during Cold War…

US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, The Effects of Nuclear WarThe Effects of Nuclear War, 1979, 1979

Hiroshima August 6, 1945Hiroshima August 6, 1945

Hiroshima After the bombHiroshima After the bomb

HiroshimaHiroshima

Nagasaki August 9, 1945Nagasaki August 9, 1945

Atomic and Nuclear Atomic and Nuclear WeaponsWeapons

ICBMICBMIntercontinental Ballistic Intercontinental Ballistic

MissileMissile

Trajectory of ICBMsTrajectory of ICBMs

SLBM – Submarine-SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missilelaunched Ballistic Missile

Launch Tube Hatches on USS Launch Tube Hatches on USS AlabamaAlabama

Launch (artwork)Launch (artwork)

Strategic BombersStrategic Bombers

Info on Nuclear WeaponsInfo on Nuclear Weapons

Federation of American ScientistsFederation of American Scientists US Strategic CommandUS Strategic Command Bulletin of the Atomic ScientistsBulletin of the Atomic Scientists Natural Resources Defense CouncilNatural Resources Defense Council Nuclear Threat InitiativeNuclear Threat Initiative

Deterrence and CredibilityDeterrence and Credibility

Influencing the enemy’s decision Influencing the enemy’s decision making processmaking process

Why so many Weapons: Why so many Weapons: DeterrenceDeterrence

Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins”“wins”

US Second strikeUS Second strike

US USSR

US Second Strike CapabilityUS Second Strike CapabilitySoviet First StrikeSoviet First StrikeUS Second strikeUS Second strike

Scenario: Everyone DiesScenario: Everyone Dies

US USSR

Forward PresenceForward Presence US Military Bases World Wide 2007US Military Bases World Wide 2007