US Foreign Policy in Central Asia in the 1990’s

Economic Transformation of Central Asia and its Internationla Dimensions

US Foreign Policy in Central Asia in the 1990sDr. Anar Somuncuolu

1The New World OrderEnd of confrontationWestern aid and assistance Washington Consensus

2Western Aid and its conditionsOperation Provide Hope (Washington Coordinating Conference) that occurred in the winter of 1991-1992, was aimed at to preserve the promise of freedom in the new independent states (James Baker, Secretary of State) Lisbon Conference on Assistance to the New Independent States, Portugal, May 24, 1992.According to Baker, there were three tasks that should dominate the work at the conference:Taking steps to prevent future humanitarian emergenceFocusing technical assistance to support microeconomic and structural reformBeginning consultations on the future of coordinating processAccording to Baker, the new independent states have a responsibility to accelerate microeconomic and macroeconomic reforms. 3Bakers PrinciplesSelf-determination without violenceRespect of BordersSupport of DemocracySafeguarding of Human RightsRespect for International Law4Washington ConsensusWashington Consensus- the proposition that the economic reform packages of the Washington based international organizations represent international standards and best practices. Shock therapy: quick liberalisation and structural reforms

5The Fall of the Soviet UnionEconomic crisisPerestroyka, glasnost: political reforms and discontentDisintegration: economic and political struggle between center and the Soviet republicsNationalism and self-determinationThe collapse of communist ideology

6FREEDOM Support Act (October 24, 1992)The collapse of the Soviet Union provides America with a once-in- a-century opportunity to help freedom take root and flourish in the lands of Russia and Eurasia.Their success in democracy and open markets will directly enhance our national security.The growth of freedom there will create business and investment opportunities for Americans and multiply the opportunities for friendship between our peoples.Just as Democrats and Republicans united together to fight for freedom during the Cold War, we must remain united to win the peace.

7The "FREEDOM Support Act of 1992" provides a flexible framework to constructively influence the fast-changing and unpredictable events transforming Russia and Eurasia. (FREEDOM Support Act) According to Baker, the act supports freedom by bolstering reform. The act will help create opportunities to all the peoples of the former Soviet Union- and for Americans and American business. (Baker, From Cold War to Democratic Peace)

8Clintons Security Strategy: engagement and enlargementIf we exert our leadership abroad, we can make America safer and more prosperous by deterring aggression, by fostering the peaceful resolution of dangerous conflicts, by opening foreign markets, by helping democratic regimes and by tackling global problems.Our national security strategy is based on enlarging the community of market democracies while deterring and containing a range of threats to our nation, our allies and our interests. The more that democracy and political and economic liberalization take hold in the world, particularly in countries of geostrategic importance to us, the safer our nation is likely to be and the more our people are likely to prosper. (NSS 1995)9Soft PowerIt is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. It arises from the attractiveness of a countrys culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhancedWhen you can get others to admire your ideals and to want you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction. (Joseph S. Nye, Jr.)

10Central Asia: different pathsDifferent countries different pathsKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan: rapid liberalisationUzbekistan Path: step by stepTurkmenistan: old styleTajikistan: political turmoil, and then internal war 11The consequences of reforms1990s: New Stone AgeA market economy without rule of lawOligarchic structure of Kazakh economyEconomic liberalisation by authoritarian meansEconomic reforms and political reformsTurkmenistan and Uzbekistan: state and economy12American security interests in Central Asia: the beginning, covert operation"According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahideen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention." (Former National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Interview with Le Nouvel Observateur, 15-21 January 1998)

13American Grand Strategy A state's grand strategy is its plan for making itself secure. Grand strategy identifies the objectives that must be achieved to produce security, and describes the political and military actions that are believed to lead to this goal. (Stephen Walt)Since the Second World War, the main objective of U.S. grand strategy has been to prevent territorial expansion by the Soviet Union while avoiding a major war. Although both ends and means have varied over time, the central elements of this strategy-commonly known as "containment-have been military alliances with Western Europe and Japan and the deployment of U.S. armed forces in Europe and the Far East. (Stephen Walt)

14Reagan Doctrine

151990sThe highest American priority in Central Asia is Russia. The key American, indeed global, interest is to see Russia evolve as democratic and moderate member of the international community. There can be no return to the Cold War era. American policies in the former Soviet Union must devote priority attention to that goal It does mean that we need to keep a very clear eye on the nature of relations between Russia and the Central Asia republics (Graham Fuller)

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17Nuclear armsKazakhstan inherits the worlds fourth largest nuclear arsenal, including 1,040 nuclear warheads for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) of 1 megaton TNT-equivalent each, 104 RS-20 ICBMs (NATO designation SS-18 Satan), as well as a squadron of 40 TU-95 heavy bombers armed with Kh-55 air-land cruise missiles (or ALCMs) (NATO designation AS-15A Kent) with 370 tactical nuclear warheads.

18May 23, 1992: Kazakhstan signs Lisbon Protocol to the Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START I Treaty), by which it renounces possession of nuclear weapons and accepts obligations to ensure nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.December 13, 1993: Kazakhstans Parliament ratifies the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. On the same day, in Almaty, President Nursultan Nazarbayev and U.S. Vice President Albert Gore sign the Framework Agreement opening the way toward implementation of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (Nunn-Lugar program) in Kazakhstan.

19Denuclearization as a foreign policy maneuver In February 1994 President Nursultan Nazarbayev presents ratification documents to President Bill Clinton in Washington, DC, by which Kazakhstan formally accedes to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as a nonnuclear-weapon state.Presidents Clinton and Nazarbayev signed the Charter of Democratic Partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States. The Charter proclaimed Kazakhstans security, independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and democratic development to be matters of highest importance for the United States. 20December, 1994: The United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Russian Federation, the states depositories of the NPT Treaty, sign the Memorandum on Security Assurances with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine, as countries who have renounced nuclear weapons. In short order, France and China, two other nuclear weapons states, provide similar guarantees to Kazakhstan.BUT! Washingtons refusal to provide direct security guarantees for Central Asian states became a lasting feature of the US policies in the region in the 1990s.

21The Unites States has assisted Kazakhstan in removal of nuclear warheads and weapons-grade material, as well as providing support for its infrastructure. In 1994, Kazakhstan transferred more than 500 kg of HEU to the United States. In 1995, Kazakhstan removed its last nuclear warhead and, with US assistance, completed the sealing of 181 nuclear test tunnels in May 2000. Under the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, the US has spent $240 mln to assist Kazakhstan in eliminating weapons of mass destruction and related infrastructure.

22Turkish Model

23Second test: Tajik Civil War1992-1997 Tajik Civil War: 50.000Russian operation and backing of mamali RahmonovUS PositionEstablishment of Russian military presence

24Mid-1990s: Energy pipedreams200 billion barrels of oilApril 1995: Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on Assistance to the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union. 1997: Strobe Tallbot, Farewell to Flashman: the US doesnt accept spheres of influence in Central EurasiaJuly 1998: Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy1999: This is not just another oil and gas deal, and this is not just another pipeline," said Energy Secretary Bill Richardson. "It is a strategic framework that advances America's national security interests. It is a strategic vision for the future of the Caspian region."25Regional anchor: UzbekistanApril 1995: US Defense Secretary Perrys Tashkent visitIsland of stabilityBeginning of military cooperationOctober 1995: Memorandum of Understanding between defense minsitries and establishment of working groupJune 1996: Uzbek presidents first visit to Washington (calls for military operation)PfP: since 1995, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan

26Alarm in Central Asia 1996: Fall of Kabul1998: Fall of Mazar-i SharifIMU: From Tavildara to Northern Afghanistan

271999-2000: IMU terrorist actsFebruary 16, 1999: Tashkent Bombings, 16 killed, 120 injuredJuly-August 1999, August 2000: Batken incursions, hostage crisesThe US classifies IMU as a foreign terrorist organisation

281991: Radical Salafi group Adolat Juma Namangani AND AfghanistanAdolat assumed civil authority in NamanganCalls for imposing of Sharia law in all UzbekistanKarimov and centralisation1992-1997: Tavildara, establishment of ties with Osama bin Laden2000: basing in Afghanistan

291999: Uzbekistan leaves CST, joines GUAMEnd of 1999: Uzbekistan participates in CST trainings2000: Uzbekistan expresses a desire to join the Shanghai Five2001: Establishment of SCO

30August 20, 1998: American tomohawk cruise missile attack on AfghanistanOctober 1999: Central Asia was included into Centcom area of responsibilitySpring 2000: CIA and FBI directors visit Kazakhstan and UzbekistanCentral Asian Border Security InitiativePlans for a military operation against Taliban and Al QaidaUzbekistan agrees to provide basesNo action31Minimum of American FPSupport of market economy: diplomatic support, aid and assistance (USAID, advisers)Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: pro-reform countriesDemocracy Promotion (USAID, National Endowment for Democracy, NDI, IRI, other NGOs)

Democracy PromotionIn 1999, congressional concerns led to passage of the Silk Road Strategy Act (P.L. 106-113), which authorized enhanced policy and aid to support conflict amelioration, humanitarian needs, economic development, transport and communications, border controls, democracy, and the creation of civil societies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.Frustration with Central Asians Push for democracy assistanceAfter 9/11: increase of funds for democracy promotion to Central Asia

33Tulip Revolution in KyrgyzstanInternal factors: poverty, corruption, nepotism, soft-authoritarian ruleExteranal factors: struggle for power in the regionThe US Embassy provided a printing press for opposition, USAID proivided political training for ALL political parties, supported independent local mediaAfter revolution: diplomatic support