Deutsche Bank Markets Research North America United States Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy US ETF Market Monthly Review Date 5 November 2015 Markets and healthy inflows push ETP assets up by $147.3bn Data in this report is as of Friday, October 30th ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MCI (P) 124/04/2015. Contributors Sebastian Mercado Strategist (+1) 212 250-8690 [email protected]Contacts Shan Lan Strategist (+852) 22036716 [email protected]Ari Rajendra Strategist (+44) 20 754-52282 [email protected]Related recent research Date TAARSS says prefer Equities and Corporates in November 04 Nov 2015 House View Portfolio: 3Y milestone and year-end positioning 09 Oct 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank US ETP assets rose by $147.3bn ETP assets in the US rose by $147.3bn to $2.111 trillion [YTD +6.7%] last month. Global ETP industry assets closed at $2.874.6 trillion [YTD 8.9%]. ETF AUM was 15.2% of the Mutual Fund AUM at the end of September vs.14.6% at the end of 2014, and 6.5% at the end of 2007. Flows Review: ETPs capture $28.0bn during October US ETPs experienced inflows of $28.0bn during October (+1.4% of last month's AUM). Equity, Fixed Income, and Commodity ETPs experienced inflows during October of $15.8bn, $11.5bn, and $0.5bn, respectively. Corporate HY and IG received their largest monthly inflows on record with $5.5bn and $3.3bn, respectively. New Launch Calendar: Twenty six new products reached the market during October There were twenty new ETFs and six ETNs listed during the previous month; twenty of these were listed in the NYSE Arca; three were listed in the BATS, while the remaining three were listed in the NASDAQ. The new products offer exposure to China A-share market; China A and H-Shares market using a dynamic share class arbitrage strategy, FX hedged exposure to the China A- share market, high dividend yielding stocks in the S&P 500 Index, S&P 500 Index focused on Value and Momentum factors, respectively; currency hedged exposure to Global ex-US Real Estate equities; FX hedged exposure to Japan, HY and IG US Corporate Bonds, respectively; Real Estate sector, Financial Services sector, Sector Rotation portfolio; currency hedged exposure to Europe and Asia Pacific regions, FX hedged exposure to Low Volatility Japan equities; thematic exposures to companies that develop therapies to treat cancer, EM companies with significant revenue from exports; European companies that may benefit from Europe’s economic recovery, and Restaurants, respectively; while, the notes offer exposure to MLPs, Infrastructure MLPs, Commodity futures, 2x Leveraged exposure to REITs; and two Alternative portfolios. Turnover Review: Floor activity decreased by 8.2% in October ETP turnover totaled $1.620 trillion last month, 8.2% (-$145.5bn) lower than the previous month figure of $1.766 trillion, and 16.1% above last year's monthly average of $1.395 trillion. Fixed Income and Commodity ETPs turnover increased by $20.7bn (+19.4%) and $2.7bn (+8.0%), respectively; while, Equity ETPs turnover decreased by $153.7bn (-9.7%) during October. ETP trading made up 26.1% of all US cash equity trading in October, down from this year's peak of 30.4% in August, and in line with its 3-year monthly average of 26.2%.
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Deutsche Bank Markets Research
North America
United States
Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Date
5 November 2015
Markets and healthy inflows push ETP assets up by $147.3bn
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MCI (P) 124/04/2015.
TAARSS says prefer Equities and Corporates in November
04 Nov 2015
House View Portfolio: 3Y milestone and year-end positioning
09 Oct 2015
Source: Deutsche Bank
US ETP assets rose by $147.3bn ETP assets in the US rose by $147.3bn to $2.111 trillion [YTD +6.7%] last month. Global ETP industry assets closed at $2.874.6 trillion [YTD 8.9%]. ETF AUM was 15.2% of the Mutual Fund AUM at the end of September vs.14.6% at the end of 2014, and 6.5% at the end of 2007.
Flows Review: ETPs capture $28.0bn during October US ETPs experienced inflows of $28.0bn during October (+1.4% of last month's AUM). Equity, Fixed Income, and Commodity ETPs experienced inflows during October of $15.8bn, $11.5bn, and $0.5bn, respectively. Corporate HY and IG received their largest monthly inflows on record with $5.5bn and $3.3bn, respectively.
New Launch Calendar: Twenty six new products reached the market during October There were twenty new ETFs and six ETNs listed during the previous month; twenty of these were listed in the NYSE Arca; three were listed in the BATS, while the remaining three were listed in the NASDAQ. The new products offer exposure to China A-share market; China A and H-Shares market using a dynamic share class arbitrage strategy, FX hedged exposure to the China A-share market, high dividend yielding stocks in the S&P 500 Index, S&P 500 Index focused on Value and Momentum factors, respectively; currency hedged exposure to Global ex-US Real Estate equities; FX hedged exposure to Japan, HY and IG US Corporate Bonds, respectively; Real Estate sector, Financial Services sector, Sector Rotation portfolio; currency hedged exposure to Europe and Asia Pacific regions, FX hedged exposure to Low Volatility Japan equities; thematic exposures to companies that develop therapies to treat cancer, EM companies with significant revenue from exports; European companies that may benefit from Europe’s economic recovery, and Restaurants, respectively; while, the notes offer exposure to MLPs, Infrastructure MLPs, Commodity futures, 2x Leveraged exposure to REITs; and two Alternative portfolios.
Turnover Review: Floor activity decreased by 8.2% in October ETP turnover totaled $1.620 trillion last month, 8.2% (-$145.5bn) lower than the previous month figure of $1.766 trillion, and 16.1% above last year's monthly average of $1.395 trillion. Fixed Income and Commodity ETPs turnover increased by $20.7bn (+19.4%) and $2.7bn (+8.0%), respectively; while, Equity ETPs turnover decreased by $153.7bn (-9.7%) during October. ETP trading made up 26.1% of all US cash equity trading in October, down from this year's peak of 30.4% in August, and in line with its 3-year monthly average of 26.2%.
Product Launches & Delistings ........................................... 6 New Launch Calendar: Twenty six new products reached the market during October ............................................................................................................... 6 Lastest trends in product launches ..................................................................... 7 Products delisted ................................................................................................ 9
ETP Historical Trends ........................................................ 10 ETP Industry Asset Evolution ............................................................................ 10 Mutual Funds Flows – Unites States ................................................................ 11 Cash Equities (ex ETPs) vs. ETP turnover – United States ................................ 12 Historical ETP monthly trends: AUM, CF, TO ................................................... 13
ETP Market Monthly Review ............................................. 15 Asset Class Snapshot ....................................................................................... 15 ETN Data Snapshot .......................................................................................... 17 ETP Rankings .................................................................................................... 18 Top 20 ETPs by Inflows and Outflows .............................................................. 18 Global Issuer Rankings ..................................................................................... 20 US Issuer Rankings ........................................................................................... 21 Investment Focus Snapshot ............................................................................. 24
Appendix A: How we define ETPs ..................................... 34
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3
Monthly Commentary1
Market Review
The US (S&P 500) edged higher by 8.30%; while, outside the US, the MSCI
EAFE (in USD) and the MSCI EM (USD) rose by 7.82% and 7.13%, respectively.
In the meantime, performance was positive across all US sectors. Materials
(+13.43%) and Energy (+10.95%) sectors recorded the largest increases
(Figure 1).
Figure 1: Asset Class Monthly Performance Summary - Equity
Region Country Focus NameBloomberg
TickerAugust September October YTD
EQUITY
North America US Broad MSCI US Broad Market MSCIBM -6.21% -3.10% 7.77% 0.47%
North America US Large Cap S&P 500 SPX -6.26% -2.64% 8.30% 0.99%
North America US Mid Cap S&P 400 MID -5.73% -3.38% 5.54% -0.53%
North America US Small Cap Russell 2000 RTY -6.40% -5.07% 5.56% -3.56%
North America US Energy S&P Energy Select Sector IXE -4.63% -7.36% 10.95% -14.24%
North America US Materials S&P Materials Select Sector IXB -5.77% -7.70% 13.43% -6.88%
North America US Healthcare S&P Healthcare Select Sector IXV -8.02% -5.81% 7.66% 4.22%
North America US Utilities S&P Utilities Select Sector IXU -4.00% 2.61% 1.06% -7.43%
North America US Cons. Staples S&P Cons. Staples Select Sector IXR -5.99% 0.10% 5.47% 2.67%
North America US Financials S&P Financials Select Sector IXM -6.94% -3.17% 6.11% -2.80%
North America US Industrials S&P Industrials Select Sector IXI -5.71% -2.32% 8.67% -4.19%
North America US Cons. Discretionary S&P Cons. Discretionary Select Sector IXY -6.57% -0.79% 8.99% 12.15%
North America US Technology S&P Technology Select Sector IXT -5.56% -1.36% 10.14% 5.41%
North America US Real Estate MSCI US REIT RMZ -6.49% 2.45% 5.55% -1.72%
North America US Dividend Div. Achievers Select DVG -6.14% -1.97% 6.56% -3.11%
Global DM ex-NA Large+Mid Cap MSCI EAFE NDDUEAFE -7.36% -5.08% 7.82% 2.13%
North America Canada Large+Mid Cap MSCI Canada NDDUCA -6.46% -4.71% 4.18% -16.73%
Asia Pacific Japan Large+Mid Cap MSCI Japan NDDUJN -5.81% -6.80% 10.09% 10.32%
Europe Germany Large+Mid Cap MSCI Germany NDDUGR -7.51% -6.18% 10.62% 0.77%
Global EM Large+Mid Cap MSCI EM NDUEEGF -9.04% -3.01% 7.13% -9.45%
Asia Pacific China Large Cap FTSE China XINOU -10.88% -3.27% 9.33% -8.71%
Latin America Brazil Large+Mid Cap MSCI Brazil NDUEBRAF -14.17% -11.88% 5.20% -36.23%
Europe Russia Large Cap DAXglobal Russia+ MVRSXTR -4.83% -3.99% 6.85% 10.83%
Classification Index/Benchmark Performance
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP
1The Monthly commentary section focuses on long only ETP Flows. Short and Long-Short ETP Flows are excluded.
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
The DB Liquid Commodity Index rose by 0.72%; similarly, the Agriculture
sector (DB Diversified Agriculture Index), the WTI Crude Oil, Gold and Silver
prices rose by 1.76%, 3.33%, 2.43% and 7.09%, respectively. . Moving into
other asset classes, the 10Y US Treasury Yield increased 10bps ending at
2.16%. Meanwhile on the FX side the USD strengthened against the Euro
(1.53%), the Swiss Franc (1.50%), and the Japanese Yen (0.62%); while it
weakened against the British Pound (1.98%). Last but not least, Volatility (VIX)
dropped by 38.49% during the same period (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Asset Class Monthly Performance Summary - Other Asset Classes
Region Country Focus NameBloomberg
TickerAugust September October YTD
FIXED INCOME
North America US Broad Market Barclays Capital US Aggregate LBUSTRUU -0.14% 0.68% 0.02% 1.14%
North America US IG Corporate Markit iBoxx $ IG Corporate IBOXIG -0.68% 0.94% 0.70% 0.27%
North America US HY Corporate Markit iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate IBOXHY -1.72% -3.05% 3.27% -0.46%
North America US Inflation Linked Barclays Capital US Treasury Inflation Notes TIP -0.95% -0.80% 0.24% -0.94%
North America US Short Term Sovereign Barclays Capital 1-3 Year Treasury Bond SHY -0.09% 0.25% -0.19% 0.45%
North America US Mid Term Sovereign Barclays Capital 7-10 Year Treasuy Bond IEF -0.08% 1.42% -0.79% 0.97%
North America US Long Term Sovereign Barclays Capital 20+ Year Treasury Bond TLT -0.91% 1.75% -0.62% -2.49%
North America US Short Term Credit Barclays Capital 1-3 Year Credit Bond CSJ -0.11% 0.06% 0.12% 0.08%
North America US Mid Term Credit Barclays Intermediate U.S. Credit Index CIU -0.64% 0.27% 0.18% -0.48%
North America US Preferred Stock S&P Preferred Stock SPPREF -1.16% -1.55% 1.99% -0.73%
North America US Mortgage-backed Securities Barclays Capital US MBS Fixed Rate MBB -0.21% 0.41% -0.16% 0.11%
North America US Municipal S&P National Municipal Bond SPMUNUST 0.17% 0.67% 0.38% 1.93%
Global DM ex-US Intl. IG Sovereign Debt Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond BWX -0.19% 0.50% 0.42% -5.49%
Global EM EM Sovereign Debt JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond USD JPEICORE -1.01% -1.38% 2.97% 2.33%
COMMODITIES
Broad US Diversified - Optimum Yield DB Liquid Commodity - OY Diversified TR DBLCIX -0.91% -3.35% 0.72% -16.61%
Agriculture US Broad Agriculture DB Diversified Agriculture TR DBAGIX -2.74% 0.18% 1.76% -13.63%
Energy US Crude Oil - WTI WTI USD Price/barrel CL1 4.41% -8.35% 3.33% -12.54%
Energy UK Crude Oil - Brent Brent USD Price/barrel CO1 1.65% 0.00% 0.11% 5.82%
ETP assets in the US rose by $147.3bn to $2.111 trillion [YTD +6.7%]
last month (Figures 5).
US ETPs experienced inflows of $28.0bn during October (+1.4% of last
month's AUM) (Figure 16).
Equity, Fixed Income, and Commodity ETPs experienced inflows
during October of $15.8bn, $11.5bn, and $0.5bn, respectively (Figure
16).
ETP turnover totaled $1.620 trillion last month, 8.2% (-$145.5bn) lower
than the previous month figure of $1.766 trillion, and 16.1% above last
year's monthly average of $1.395 trillion (Figure 17).
Fixed Income and Commodity ETPs turnover increased by $20.7bn
(+19.4%) and $2.7bn (+8.0%), respectively; while Equity ETPs turnover
decreased by $153.7bn (-9.7%) during October (Figure 17).
ETF AUM was 15.2% of the Mutual Fund AUM at the end of
September vs.14.6% at the end of 2014, and 6.5% at the end of 2007
(Figure 7).
ETF assets decreased by 0.5% at the end of September, despite YTD
positive flow of $142.8bn (+7.4% of December AUM); meanwhile, MF
assets decreased by 4.1%, experienced outflows of $9.6bn (-0.5% of
December AUM) (Figures 8).
ETP trading made up 26.1% of all US cash equity trading in October,
down from this year's peak of 30.4% in August, and in line with its 3-
year monthly average of 26.2% (Figures 10).
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Page 6 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Product Launches & Delistings
New Launch Calendar: Twenty six new products reached the market during October
There were twenty new ETFs and six ETNs listed during the previous month; twenty of these were listed in the NYSE Arca; three were listed in the BATS, while the remaining three were listed in the NASDAQ. The new products offer exposure to China A-share market; China A and H-Shares market using a dynamic share class arbitrage strategy, FX hedged exposure to the China A-share market, high dividend yielding stocks in the S&P 500 Index, S&P 500 Index focused on Value and Momentum factors, respectively; currency hedged exposure to Global ex-US Real Estate equities; FX hedged exposure to Japan, HY and IG US Corporate Bonds, respectively; Real Estate sector, Financial Services sector, Sector Rotation portfolio; currency hedged exposure to Europe and Asia Pacific regions, FX hedged exposure to Low Volatility Japan equities; thematic exposures to companies that develop therapies to treat cancer, EM companies with significant revenue from exports; European companies that may benefit from Europe’s economic recovery, and Restaurants, respectively; while, the notes offer exposure to MLPs, Infrastructure MLPs, Commodity futures, 2x Leveraged exposure to REITs; and two Alternative portfolios.
Number of ETPs** 269 324 432 737 1,213 1,666 2,042 2,582 3,127 3,494 3,713 3,996 4,297
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nu
mb
er o
f E
TP
s
$ b
illion
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet *2015 figures are as of October 30, 2015 **Number of ETPs corresponds to the net number of ETPs at the end of each period (i.e. Listed – Delisted products)
Figure 6: US ETP asset growth by asset class ($Billion - Annual)
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet *2015 figures are as of October 30, 2015 **Number of ETPs corresponds to the net number of ETPs at the end of each period (i.e. Listed – Delisted products)
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11
Mutual Funds Flows – Unites States
Figure 7: US ETP vs Long Term Mutual Fund assets ($Billion - Monthly)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
as
% o
f M
F A
UM
AU
M $
Bill
ion
ETF - lhs ETV - lhs ETF/MF % - rhs ETP/MF % - rhs
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, ICI
Figure 8: Annual AUM growth rate by growth component** - ETFs vs. Long Term Mutual Funds (%)
ETF AUM growth Long Term Mutual Funds AUM Growth
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%ETF Price Growth Component
ETF Flows Growth Component
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
MF Price Growth Component
MF Flows Growth Component
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, ICI *2015 data corresponds to YTD CF as of the end of September 2015. **AUM growth is equal to the sum of Flows growth and Price growth, calculated as % of the AUM in the previous year.
Note: Long Term Mutual Fund and ETP data used in these subsection charts is updated as of the end of September 2015
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Figure 9: US ETF vs. Long Term Mutual Fund net cash flows ($Billion - Annual)
Global Total 2,874,572 100.0% 2,639,710 100.0% 4,297 34,094 1,797,123 282,051 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet. *Includes US, Europe, and Asia Pacific
Figure 26: Global* Top 10 ETF Providers (AUM, CF, and TO in $MM)
Global Total 2,800,929 100.0% 2,562,246 100.0% 3,773 32,977 1,734,374 278,676 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet. *Includes US, Europe, and Asia Pacific
Figure 27: Global* Top 10 ETV/ETC Providers (AUM, CF, and TO in $MM)
Issuer Current AUM Mkt. Share 2014 AUM2014 Mkt.
ShareNu.
Current
Month CF
Current
Month TOYTD CF
State Street 25,416 34.5% 27,325 35.3% 1 193 14,647 -304
Total Top 10 72,597 98.6% 76,584 98.9% 411 1,061 61,831 2,962
Others 1,046 1.4% 880 1.1% 113 56 918 414
Global Total 73,643 100.0% 77,464 100.0% 524 1,116 62,749 3,375 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet. *Includes US, Europe, and Asia Pacific
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 21
US Issuer Rankings
Net Cash Flows
Figure 28: ETP Net Cash flows ($ Million) ranking by Issuer
Total 49,946 100% 48,131 1,815 3.77% 52,809 (2,863) -5.4%
October 2015 MoM Change YTD Change
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 33
The authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contribution made by Alfonso Delgado Valdivia, employee of Evalueserve, a third-party provider of offshore research support services to Deutsche Bank.
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Page 34 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Appendix A: How we define ETPs
Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs)
We define an exchange-traded product (ETP) as a secure (funded or collateralized)
open-ended delta-one exchange-traded equity or debt instrument with no embedded
optionality and market-wide appeal to investors. This includes exchange traded funds,
exchange-traded commodities (Europe) and exchange-traded vehicles (US).
The figure below provides a summary of our current coverage universe by region and
structure type as on 31 December 2014.
The vast majority of instruments are ETFs (97%, 3,906 products, $2,641bn) with the
remainder being ETCs (0.7%, 451 products, $20.4bn) in Europe and ETVs (2.1%, 70
products, $56.7bn) in the US.
Figure 40: ETP Coverage Universe Summary - End of 2014
Region Products US$ Mil. % Products US$ Mil. % Products US$ Mil. %
US 1,450 1,979,179 72.7% 1,380 1,922,462 70.6% 70 56,717 2.1%
Europe 1,869 459,225 16.9% 1,418 438,870 16.1% 451 20,355 0.7%
Global 4,447 2,721,220 100.0% 3,906 2,640,532 97.0% 541 80,691 3.0%
ETPs ETFs ETC/Vs
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Reuters
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs, 97%)
US (71%): Fund structures that issue shares that are traded on an exchange much the
same way as equities. ETFs indexed to equity and fixed income benchmarks are
registered under the investment company act of 1940. Only physical index replication
techniques are permissible by this legislation while synthetic replication is not allowed.
Europe (16%): Fund structures that issue units or shares that are traded on an
exchange much the same way as equities. The vast majorities of European ETFs are
UCITS III compliant and are primarily domiciled in Dublin and Luxemburg. The
Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) are a set of
European Union directives that aim to allow collective investment schemes to operate
freely throughout the EU on the basis of a single authorization from one member state.
Both physical and synthetic index replication is permissible by UCITS and funds are
allowed to track equity, fixed income as well as diversified commodity indices.
Asia (7%): Both European and US ETFs are cross sold into the Asian market.
Exchange-Traded Collateralized Instruments (3%)
Exchange-Traded Commodities (ETCs, 1%)
In Europe as UCITS III does not permit the creation of funds tracking non diversified
commodity indices (for example wheat or oil), exchange-traded products that track
single commodity profiles are issued under the EU Prospectus Directive in two
structures that have become widely known as exchange-traded commodities (ETCs).
ETCs can either be physically backed or they can be issued through a bankruptcy
5 November 2015
US ETF Market Monthly Review
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 35
remote special purpose vehicle (SPV). Both forms utilize offshore domiciles, such as
Jersey, and are classed as debt instruments. Physically-backed ETCs are fully backed
with securities that closely resemble the composition of a product’s benchmark index.
SPV structures are collateralized by assets that could bear no resemblance to those of
their respective benchmark index and replicate their index return through a total return
swap structure or by holding other derivative instruments such as futures. In the vast
majority of cases, both types of ETCs are fully collateralized with secure assets such as
money market instruments, government bonds and gold. For more information, please
refer to our research report issued on March 11 2010 titled ‘The race for assets in the
European Exchange-Traded Products Market”.
Exchange-traded vehicles (ETVs, 2%)
This terminology typically refers to grantor trusts that exist in the US market. These
instruments track primarily commodity benchmarks. They differ from ETFs in that they
are registered under the Securities Act of 1933 and not the Investment Company Act of
1940, hence they are not classed as funds. Vehicles that replicate commodity
benchmarks, more often known as pools, and funds targeting alternative index returns
are formed under the Commodities Exchange Act and are listed under the 33 Securities
Act, and report under 34 Corporate Act.
5 November 2015
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Page 36 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request
*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Sebastian Mercado
Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships
Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Notes:
1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:
Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period