US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. January 14, 2014 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
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US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators · US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. January 14, 2014 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
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* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy (CPB).
Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
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Figure 2.
Key Global Indicators
Page 1 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
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YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER*
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
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YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER COMPONENTS
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Brent Crude Oil(dollars per barrel)
* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Global Boom Bust Barometer
Page 2 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 6.
US Leading Indicators
Page 3 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 8.
ECRI
Page 4 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-160
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CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Based on US Dollar
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Source: Citigroup.
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CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Based on G10 Currencies
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Source: Citigroup.
Figure 10.
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
Page 5 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES(billion dollars)
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C&I Loans PlusNonfinancialCommercial Paper(nsa)
Manufacturing & TradeInventories(sa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
12/30LIQUID ASSETS*(billion dollars, sa, ratio scale)
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal.
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Figure 36.
US Liquid Assets
Page 19 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
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Figure 40.
US Profits Cycle
Page 21 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS(yearly percent change)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
New Factory Orders(3-ma)
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted averageof current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 42.
US Profits Cycle
Page 22 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS(yearly percent change)
Aggregate Hours
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 44.
US Profits Cycle
Page 23 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 46.
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
Page 24 / January 14, 2014 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.6
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GASOLINE PRICES(dollars per gallon)
National averagepump price (weekly)
Futures price (daily)*
* Nearby contract.Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics.
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